DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090040
SWODY1
SPC AC 090039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL TX...
IN TANDEM WITH MIGRATORY UPPER LOW...A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

...PORTIONS OF KS/OK LATE...
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF SLOW SE
ADVANCING/NE-SW ORIENTED LOW LEVEL FRONT ACROSS KS/WESTERN
OK...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE DOMINANT...BUT WEAK
BUOYANCY WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE MAY SUPPORT SOME
EMBEDDED/OCCASIONAL TSTMS.

...COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT RELATIVELY HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH/FRONTAL BAND.

..GUYER.. 11/09/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081943
SWODY1
SPC AC 081941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS UPDATE...WITH THUNDER
ONGOING IN SPOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PAC NW REGION...AS WELL AS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND S TX. IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS APPARENT ACROSS PARTS OF
KS/OK LATER TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES INVOF A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ALL AREAS...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 11/08/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009/

...SOUTH TX...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH TX...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

...KS/OK...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL
EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS KS AND NORTHWEST OK...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WESTERN WA/ORE...
A PERSISTENT STREAM OF STRONG WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE
COAST AND COASTAL RANGES TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081727
SWODY2
SPC AC 081725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD BELT OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN AND N
CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO ERN CANADA...WITH SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES
PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH THE FAST FLOW FIELD.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONE OF THESE EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO TOWARD QUEBEC.

A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND S OF THE LARGER GULF OF AK FEATURE.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST REMAINS HURRICANE IDA...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NHC
REGARDING IDA.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
MOISTENING/VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD -- AS HURRICANE IDA SHIFTS NWD ACROSS THE GULF.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT LANDFALL WILL OCCUR AFTER THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE A PORTION OF THE NERN QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM -- THE
MOST KINEMATICALLY-FAVORABLE REGION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MAY
REACH THE COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM. HOWEVER...WITH SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING LIKELY TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION...WILL MAINTAIN EXISTING THUNDER LINE.

...ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- POSSIBLY ONGOING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD -- SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...INVOF A
WEAKENING FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PAC NW...WHERE MOIST SWLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.

..GOSS.. 11/08/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081606
SWODY1
SPC AC 081604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH TX...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH TX...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

...KS/OK...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL
EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS KS AND NORTHWEST OK...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WESTERN WA/ORE...
A PERSISTENT STREAM OF STRONG WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE
COAST AND COASTAL RANGES TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

..HART/JEWELL.. 11/08/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD AROUND THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF
AK...AND THEN PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG WLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NWRN-N CENTRAL STATES. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES LOCATED TO ITS N. FARTHER TO THE S OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE NWD TOWARD THE COASTS OF
LA/MS /REFERENCE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS/.

...SOUTH TX...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /I.E. MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS
MORNING. RECENT LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STRIKES HAS
BEEN OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MEXICAN TROUGH. AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH S CENTRAL TX...STORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL AND SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PROFILES WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FROM DEVELOPING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A COLD MID LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAC NW...AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 100-200
J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG THE WA/ORE COASTLINE. WLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE FAVORABLY ORIENTED WITH COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER 00Z...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECREASING LAPSE RATES...AS
WELL AS WIND FIELDS WHICH BACK IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING S/W
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC /RESULTING IN DECREASING MESOSCALE ASCENT/.
THUS...LIGHTNING POTENTIAL MAY MOVE OFFSHORE AND ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE REGION TOWARD
12Z/MONDAY.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...
S/W TROUGH LOCATED INVOF THE BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SWD SAGGING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER SRN KS/NRN
OK /MAINLY LOW-MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WITH THE EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH AND FRONTAL FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL
INVERSION AND BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER
06Z...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR APPEAR TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 11/08/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080829
SWOD48
SPC AC 080829

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO HAVE BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL
BY DAY 4 (WEDNESDAY) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NERN GULF NEAR
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE COULD STILL FACE SOME
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO
HIGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL POSSIBLY DAY 7 OR 8 WHEN
MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. DIFFERENCES
EXIST AMONG MODELS IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
ECMWF BEING DEEPER AND STRONGER INDICATING A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.
PREDICTABILITY WITH THIS PATTERN REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/08/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080714
SWODY3
SPC AC 080713

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...GULF COASTAL AREA...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN TROPICAL STORM IDA.
THE STORM IS FORECAST BY NHC TO APPROACH THE CNTRL OR NE GULF COAST
TUESDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EWD OR SEWD LATER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST...IDA COULD MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST FOR A SMALL WARM SECTOR TO ADVECT INLAND. IF THIS OCCURS
LARGE HODOGRAPHS EAST OF THE CENTER WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT
BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES FOR THE CNTRL OR NERN GULF COAST
IF FUTURE NHC FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IDA WILL APPROACH THE
GULF COAST.

..DIAL.. 11/08/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080554
SWODY2
SPC AC 080553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAIN BELT OF
WLYS PERSISTING OVER THE NRN THIRD OF U.S.. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL
ADVANCE EAST WITHIN NRN STREAM INCLUDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH NRN MN EARLY
MONDAY...CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR SRN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS THEN MOVE SEWD
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL
MOVE INTO THE NWRN GULF AND LOWER MS VALLEY. TROPICAL STORM IDA IS
FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE INTO THE N-CNTRL GULF...BUT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD.

...GULF COASTAL REGION...

TREND HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED OF TROPICAL STORM IDA
AFTER IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE
EWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER MEXICO. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IDA MAY APPROACH THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IDA. UNLESS IDA
ACCELERATES NWD MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
RESULTING IN A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREA.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY REGION...

MODIFIED CP AIR RETURNING NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN AN
AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF FRONT WHERE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ALONG
THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONT PRIMARILY FROM NRN OK INTO KS AND THE MID
MS VALLEY.

..DIAL.. 11/08/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080552
SWODY1
SPC AC 080550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH MEXICO
WILL MIGRATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
SLOWLY COME MORE INTO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER
WESTERLIES. OTHERWISE...TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT
CONTINUES NNW TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...REFERENCE LATEST
NHC GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS VERY
LOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 TODAY.

...SOUTH TX...
E-NE ADVANCING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A MODEST INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF TX TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
SOME TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE AREAS AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...
SOME LATTER PERIOD TSTMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT ALONG SE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK AFTER 06Z. WHILE SHOWERS MAY BE
DOMINANT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT WEAK BUOYANCY/CHARGE
SEPARATION SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED/OCCASIONAL TSTMS.

..GUYER.. 11/08/2009

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