Wednesday, August 1, 2007

KGID [020225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 020225
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
925 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 E BRUNING 40.34N 97.55W
08/01/2007 THAYER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING RAPIDLY OVER A GRAVEL ROAD


&&

$$

NWS

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KICT [020215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 020215
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
915 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG SYLVAN GROVE 39.01N 98.39W
08/01/2007 LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWNED.


&&

$$

LFW

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KICT [020212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 020212
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
912 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN SYLVAN GROVE 39.01N 98.39W
08/01/2007 E3.75 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR.


&&

$$

LFW

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KGLD [020210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 020210
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
810 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW GOODLAND 39.40N 101.78W
08/01/2007 SHERMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO POWER POLES DOWN JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF
ROAD 67 AND ROAD 15.


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KICT [020209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 020209
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
909 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 PM HEAVY RAIN WILSON 38.83N 98.47W
08/01/2007 M3.25 INCH ELLSWORTH KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CDJ

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KICT [020209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 020209
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
908 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0902 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 W LINCOLN 39.04N 98.28W
08/01/2007 M3.00 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN ONE HOUR FOR THE TOWN OF
VESPER.


&&

$$

CDJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1625

ACUS11 KWNS 020206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020206
KSZ000-COZ000-020500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN KS...EXTREME E-CENTRAL/SERN
CO.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 020206Z - 020500Z

LOCAL RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE LIKELY FROM HEAVIEST CORES
AMONG TSTMS WIDELY SCATTERED ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THIS REGION. IN
ADDITION TO NEAR-TERM HEAVY RAIN THREATS INVOF KS/CO BORDER AND
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL KS BETWEEN SLN-HUT-GBD...ADDITIONAL
MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THOSE OVER SWRN KS.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD APPROXIMATELY 30 KT
OVER ERN CO -- E OF LIC -- LINKING WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT
CONTINUES ESEWD TOWARD GBD. CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING SWWD ACROSS
PORTIONS LOGAN/WALLACE COUNTIES KS AND KIT CARSON COUNTY CO INVOF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MERGE WITH ERRATICALLY MOVING MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS GREELEY/WALLACE COUNTIES KS...AND
CHEYENNE/KIOWA COUNTIES CO...THROUGH 03Z. ANOTHER PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF TSTMS BETWEEN RSL-SLN SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING
GENERALLY SWD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY ACROSS W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS...IN AREA OF STRONGEST
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW JUST ABOVE SFC...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH
ZONE OF MAXIMIZED 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RUC GUIDANCE.
PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH NEARLY
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-MID 60S F DEW POINTS ON HIGH PLAINS AND NEAR 70 F
OVER CENTRAL KS...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 5000-1000 J/KG FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF PRE-STORM REGION...WHERE PW AROUND 1/5 INCH
SHOULD REMAIN COMMON.

.EDWARDS.. 08/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

39160280 38870189 38570014 38509891 38779830 38839764
38149761 37509886 37330053 37960256 38260314 38680339

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KGID [020206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 020206
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
905 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN SHICKLEY 40.42N 97.72W
08/01/2007 M4.00 INCH FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

WESELY

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KICT [020149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 020149
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
849 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S SYLVAN GROVE 38.98N 98.39W
08/01/2007 LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL RURAL ROADS SOUTH OF SYLVAN GROVE ARE IMPASSABLE
DUE TO HIGH WATER GOING OVER THE ROADWAYS.


&&

$$

CDJ

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KICT [020147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 020147
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
847 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S SYLVAN GROVE 38.98N 98.39W
08/01/2007 M3.25 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

3.25 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN ONE HOUR 2 MILES SOUTH OF
SYLVAN GROVE.


&&

$$

CDJ

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KOAX [020146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 020146
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
846 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 PM FLASH FLOOD FAIRBURY 40.14N 97.18W
08/01/2007 JEFFERSON NE EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED STREET FLOODING IN FAIRBURY.


&&

$$

CZAPOTOC

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KMRX [020146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 020146
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
946 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW BLOUNTVILLE 36.51N 82.35W
08/01/2007 SULLIVAN TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN ON BROWN CIRCLE. REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS
DISPATCH.

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE SPRING CITY 35.75N 84.79W
08/01/2007 RHEA TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN ON TOESTRING VALLEY ROAD. REPORTED BY
CENTRAL DISPATCH.


&&

$$

FERRELL

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KJAN [020144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 020144
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
844 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG HICKORY 32.32N 89.02W
08/01/2007 NEWTON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 20 NEAR MILE MARKER 111

0453 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE IMPROVE 31.30N 89.65W
08/01/2007 MARION MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HWY 98 JUST INSIDE
MARION CO.

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NNW BAXTERVILLE 31.16N 89.63W
08/01/2007 LAMAR MS PUBLIC

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG PINE BURR RD JUST
INSIDE LAMAR CO.

0637 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW LENA 32.63N 89.63W
08/01/2007 LEAKE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS HWY 13 AT GOOD HOPE.


&&

$$

CME

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KGLD [020143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 020143
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
743 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM FLASH FLOOD 16 S GOODLAND 39.12N 101.71W
08/01/2007 WALLACE KS PUBLIC

6 INCHES OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 27 JUST SOUTH OF THE
WALLACE/SHERMAN COUNTY LINE.


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KVEF [020138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 020138
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
637 PM PDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 PM FLOOD KINGMAN 35.21N 114.03W
08/01/2007 MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

STOCKTON HILLS ROAD CLOSED AT MILE MARKER 34. ALL WASHES
OVER BANKS EAST-SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF KINGMAN.

0632 PM FLASH FLOOD 20 N WIKIEUP 34.99N 113.62W
08/01/2007 MOHAVE AZ COUNTY OFFICIAL

U.S. 93 AT MILE MARKER 104 WAS CLOSED FOR AN HOUR DUE TO
FLOODING AND MUD OVER THE ROADWAY.


&&

$$

GORELOW

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KICT [020135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 020135
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
835 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0833 PM HEAVY RAIN SYLVAN GROVE 39.01N 98.39W
08/01/2007 M3.00 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR AND CREEK IN THE BACK YARD
WAS RISING FAST.


&&

$$

CDJ

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KGLD [020133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 020133
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
733 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W GOODLAND 39.35N 101.75W
08/01/2007 SHERMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1.15 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES. WATER OVER THE ROAD.


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KDDC [020126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 020126
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
825 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HAIL 9 S THE HAGGARD ELEV 37.49N 100.33W
08/01/2007 E1.00 INCH GRAY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

JRJ

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KGLD [020123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 020123
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
723 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM TSTM WND GST RULETON 39.34N 101.88W
08/01/2007 M65.00 MPH SHERMAN KS PUBLIC

ALSO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

0653 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W GOODLAND 39.35N 101.78W
08/01/2007 M59.00 MPH SHERMAN KS NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KICT [020118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 020118
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
818 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HEAVY RAIN SYLVAN GROVE 39.01N 98.39W
08/01/2007 M2.50 INCH LINCOLN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
SYLVAN GROVE IN ONE HOUR.


&&

$$

CDJ

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KGID [020115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 020115
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
815 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0811 PM FLASH FLOOD GENEVA 40.53N 97.60W
08/01/2007 FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

STREET FLOODING IN GENEVA AND OTHER COMMUNITIES IN
FILLMORE COUNTY. MANY COUNTY ROADS UNDER WATER AND SOME
WASHED OUT.


&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [020114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 020114
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
814 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0811 PM HEAVY RAIN SHICKLEY 40.42N 97.72W
08/01/2007 M3.25 INCH FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

52 MPH WIND


&&

$$

NWS

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KAMA [020111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 020111
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
810 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 PM HAIL 14 SSE CANYON 34.79N 101.83W
08/01/2007 E0.88 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

50 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

$$

SMB

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KMPX [020106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 020106
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
804 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 PM HAIL COON RAPIDS 45.17N 93.31W
08/01/2007 E0.75 INCH ANOKA MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MDB

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KDDC [020059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 020059
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
759 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HAIL 11 N MEADE 37.44N 100.34W
08/01/2007 E0.88 INCH MEADE KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

JRJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020054
SWODY1
SPC AC 020052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS MN TO NEB/KS...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING CNTRL CANADA ATTM WITH ASSOCIATED
CYCLONE UNDERGOING OCCLUSION OVER SWRN HUDSON BAY. TRIPLE POINT LOW
APPEARS TO BE NEARING JAMES BAY WITH SHARP COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...TO SWRN MN...TO NEB...TO ERN CO. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS ESEWD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA TO SRN QUEBEC.

DESPITE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINING
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE BORDER...CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH LATE EVENING. AT PRESENT...FRONTAL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
AIDING STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN WHERE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS DEPICT MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND/HAIL EVENTS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

FARTHER SW...FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE GENERALLY SWD INTO VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN CO ACROSS NEB/KS TONIGHT. LIFT ALONG THE
PRIMARY FRONT/WIND SHIFT...IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS RESULTING FROM STORM
MERGERS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM POTENTIAL. WHILE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30KT/ DO APPEAR IN
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN LOW/ISOLATED AND TIED PRIMARILY TO THERMODYNAMIC AND STORM
SCALE FORCING. AN MCS OR TWO MAY EMERGE FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS AND SPREAD/PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD/SWWD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

..NRN NEW ENGLAND...
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING CANADA MAY
SUSTAIN STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT OVER SRN QUEBEC. CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC WAS DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD AND FUELING
ONGOING STORMS WHICH MAY BE EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS PER
LATEST SATELLITE AND CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO
PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
INFLOW INTO THIS CONVECTION FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION
FORECAST BY LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO THE REGION TONIGHT.

..SOUTHWEST/SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL PULSE/MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONGOING IN
EXTENSIVE WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FROM EAST TO WEST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

.CARBIN.. 08/02/2007

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KGLD [020040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 020040
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
640 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM HAIL 15 SSE ARAPAHOE 38.65N 102.06W
08/01/2007 E0.88 INCH CHEYENNE CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JMARTIN

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KPUB [020011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 020011
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
611 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 8 S TOWNER 38.35N 102.08W
08/01/2007 M0.75 INCH KIOWA CO PUBLIC


&&

$$

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KSLC [020011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 020011
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
610 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N VIRGIN 37.22N 113.20W
08/01/2007 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOODING IN ZION NATIONAL PARK AND AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE PARK NEAR THE TOWNS OF VIRGIN AND
TOUQUERVILLE. DUE TO THE MASSIVE FLASH FLOOD SIX HOMES
HAVE BEEN DAMAGED...AND RESIDENTS HAVE BEEN EVACUATED OFF
OF THEIR ROOFS. KOLOB TERRACE ROAD IS CLOSED AND DAMAGED.
ZION RIVER RESORT IS ALSO DAMAGED.


&&

$$

BMCINERN

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KJAN [020006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 020006
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW LENA 32.63N 89.63W
08/01/2007 LEAKE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS HWY 13 AT GOOD HOPE.


&&

$$

CME

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KMRX [020001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KMRX 020001
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
801 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE CLINTON 36.15N 84.05W
08/01/2007 ANDERSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN CLINTON AND NORRIS.
REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS DISPATCH.


&&

$$

FERRELL

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KAMA [012352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 012352
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
651 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ENE PERRYTON 36.41N 100.75W
08/01/2007 M63 MPH OCHILTREE TX AWOS

&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KAMA [012349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 012349
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM TSTM WND GST WASHBURN 35.18N 101.57W
08/01/2007 E65 MPH ARMSTRONG TX BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF A BARN WITH ADDITIONAL TREE AND
SHINGLE DAMAGE IN TOWN.

&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KFWD [012339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KFWD 012339 CCA
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM FLASH FLOOD DALLAS 32.79N 96.77W
08/01/2007 DALLAS TX PUBLIC

NORTHWEST HWY BARRICADED NEAR INWOOD

$$

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KJAN [012317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 012317
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE IMPROVE 31.30N 89.65W
08/01/2007 MARION MS EMERGENCY MNGR

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HWY 98 JUST INSIDE
MARION CO.

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NNW BAXTERVILLE 31.16N 89.63W
08/01/2007 LAMAR MS PUBLIC

A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG PINE BURR RD JUST
INSIDE LAMAR CO.


&&

$$

CME

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KFWD [012313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 012313
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0612 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S TERRELL 32.72N 96.29W
08/01/2007 KAUFMAN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HWY 34 SOUTH OF TERRELL CLOSED...BLOCKED BY STALLED
CARS.

$$

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KMRX [012311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 012311
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
711 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE CLINTON 36.15N 84.05W
08/01/2007 ANDERSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN CLINTON AND NORRIS.
REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS DISPATCH.


&&

$$

FERRELL

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KHUN [012254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 012254
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE GRANT 34.48N 86.20W
08/01/2007 MARSHALL AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.


&&

$$

TROUTMAN

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KFWD [012247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 012247
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM FLASH FLOOD DALLAS 32.79N 96.77W
08/01/2007 DALLAS TX PUBLIC

NORTHWEST HWY BARRICADED DOWNTOWN DALLAS

$$

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KGSP [012244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 012244
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 W CHESNEE 35.15N 81.97W
08/01/2007 SPARTANBURG SC EMERGENCY MNGR

2 POWER POLES DOWN ON ANDERSON ROAD AND TREE DOWN 4 MILES
WEST OF CHESNEE ON PARRIS BRIDGE ROAD.


&&

$$

VDICARLO

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KFWD [012238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 012238
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
538 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD RICHARDSON 32.97N 96.71W
08/01/2007 DALLAS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ABOUT EIGHT INCHES OF WATER ACROSS CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY.

$$

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KFWD [012237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 012237
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM TSTM WND DMG RICHARDSON 32.97N 96.71W
08/01/2007 DALLAS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN NEAR CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY. ESTIMATED
70 MPH.

$$

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KHUN [012236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 012236
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
536 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM HAIL GRANT 34.53N 86.25W
08/01/2007 E0.50 INCH MARSHALL AL EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE TOWN OF GRANT


&&

$$

DL-16

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KHUN [012229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 012229
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE GRANT 34.49N 86.19W
08/01/2007 MARSHALL AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.


&&

$$

TROUTMAN

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KOUN [012203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 012203
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
503 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM FLASH FLOOD CORDELL 35.30N 98.98W
08/01/2007 WASHITA OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ROADS IN CORDELL ARE BEING BARRICADED OFF DUE TO RISING
WATER.


&&

$$

TY

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KJAN [012203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 012203
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG HICKORY 32.32N 89.02W
08/01/2007 NEWTON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 20 NEAR MILE MARKER 111


&&

$$

GERARD

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KOHX [012156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 012156
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
456 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW COLUMBIA 35.67N 87.11W
08/01/2007 MAURY TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND ELECTRIC POLES DOWN AT SANTE FE AND MT PLEASANT

&&

$$

MCDANIEL

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KGID [012144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 012144
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
444 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN KEARNEY 40.70N 99.08W
08/01/2007 M3.30 INCH BUFFALO NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTHWEST KEARNEY.

1217 PM FLASH FLOOD KEARNEY 40.70N 99.08W
08/01/2007 BUFFALO NE TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET FLOODING REPORTED. 5 CARS STALLED ON 11TH STREET
AND WATER UP TO AUTOMOBILE BUMPERS AROUND COURTHOUSE.
SPOTTER MEASURED 4.02 INCHES OF RAIN AT HIS HOME IN
SOUTHWEST KEARNEY.

0200 PM FLOOD KEARNEY 40.70N 99.08W
08/01/2007 BUFFALO NE PUBLIC

FLOODING REPORTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF KEARNEY JUST NORTH
OF THE INTERCHANGE.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 S KEARNEY 40.69N 99.08W
08/01/2007 M4.07 INCH BUFFALO NE OTHER FEDERAL

AUTOMATED RAIN GAGE LOCATED AT THE PLATTE RIVER USGS
GAGING STATION ON THE HIGHWAY 44 BRIDGE JUST SOUTH OF
KEARNEY. STORM TOTAL AS OF 2 PM.

0242 PM HEAVY RAIN KEARNEY 40.70N 99.08W
08/01/2007 M4.84 INCH BUFFALO NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTHWEST SIDE OF KEARNEY.

0343 PM FLASH FLOOD SMITH CENTER 39.78N 98.78W
08/01/2007 SMITH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 36 COVERED IN WATER IN THE COUNTY.

0403 PM HEAVY RAIN LEBANON 39.81N 98.56W
08/01/2007 M2.00 INCH SMITH KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN LEBANON.

0407 PM HEAVY RAIN LEBANON 39.81N 98.56W
08/01/2007 M3.90 INCH SMITH KS TRAINED SPOTTER

FLASH FLOODING REPORTED IN LEBANON

0443 PM HEAVY RAIN SMITH CENTER 39.78N 98.78W
08/01/2007 M2.74 INCH SMITH KS CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [012144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 012144
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
444 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HEAVY RAIN SMITH CENTER 39.78N 98.78W
08/01/2007 M2.74 INCH SMITH KS CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

NWS

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KMRX [012139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 012139
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
539 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM HAIL 2 N CHARLESTON 35.32N 84.76W
08/01/2007 E0.75 INCH MCMINN TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY SIZE HAIL 2 MILES NORTH OF CHARLESTON. REPORTED BY
DISPATCH.


&&

$$

TGETZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1622

ACUS11 KWNS 011644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011644
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-011745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN MN AND SERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011644Z - 011745Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS FROM CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO SERN SD...THOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW.

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO SWRN SD...WITH A 50-75
MILE BAND OF CLOUDS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT... PRIMARILY NEAR
THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE MORE DENSE CLOUDS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS HAVE AIDED IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
1500-2500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WARM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
ALSO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THOUGH VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD MAINTAIN STORM UPDRAFTS. THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS...BUT THE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT ISOLATED AND BRIEF.

.IMY.. 08/01/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

43029717 42869915 43940035 46499457 46359400 45249327
43859531

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KKEY [011629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 011629
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1229 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 AM WATER SPOUT 10 N MARATHON 24.86N 81.08W
08/01/2007 GMZ031 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER OBSERVED A WATERSPOUT WITHIN A CLOUDLINE
APPROXIMATELY 10 MILES NORTH OF MARATHON...MOVING EAST AT
10 KNOTS. DURATION UNKNOWN.


&&

$$

SD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011624
SWODY1
SPC AC 011622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN INTO NEB/NORTHWEST
KS...

..MN TO NEB/NORTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF
WESTERLIES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ARCING
FROM NORTHWEST MN TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF SD AT
MIDDAY...WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IN
THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR.

STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND THESE PERSISTENT STORMS/CLOUD COVER
COMPLICATE THE DETAILS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT ACROSS MN. IN ALL LIKLIHOOD...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING STORMS/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ACROSS
MN/EASTERN SD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHWEST EXTENT
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB. GIVEN AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN TO
2500-3000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB AND NORTHWEST KS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESIDE IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AND WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE MODEST...SOMEWHAT STRONGER HIGH
LEVEL FLOW ABOVE 6 KM SHOULD HELP CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

..ELSEWHERE...
THE BROAD MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SCATTERED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FARTHER E...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
TODAY ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SEWD
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL.

.GUYER/MCCARTHY.. 08/01/2007

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KDDC [011612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 011612
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1112 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 S CHARLESTON 37.74N 100.57W
08/01/2007 M3.00 INCH GRAY KS CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. ALSO REPORTED WATER 6 INCHES DEEP COVERING
SOME RURAL ROADS

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 14 W KALVESTA 38.05N 100.54W
08/01/2007 E1.30 INCH FINNEY KS CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 15 W KALVESTA 38.05N 100.56W
08/01/2007 E2.50 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 12 NNW SCOTT CITY 38.64N 100.99W
08/01/2007 M1.75 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N AMY 38.45N 100.60W
08/01/2007 M1.50 INCH LANE KS CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL

1035 AM HEAVY RAIN 22 WNW KALVESTA 38.17N 100.65W
08/01/2007 M2.80 INCH FINNEY KS CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AND STILL RAINING. WATER
FLOWING OUT OF THE FIELDS ACROSS SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS.


&&

$$

RBURGERT

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KDDC [011558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 011558
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1058 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 S CHARLESTON 37.74N 100.57W
08/01/2007 M3.00 INCH GRAY KS CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. ALSO REPORTED WATER 6 INCHES DEEP COVERING
SOME RURAL ROADS

1035 AM HEAVY RAIN 22 WNW KALVESTA 38.17N 100.65W
08/01/2007 M2.80 INCH FINNEY KS CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AND STILL RAINING. WATER
FLOWING OUT OF THE FIELDS ACROSS SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS.


&&

$$

RBURGERT

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KTOP [011505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 011505
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1005 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD MARYSVILLE 39.84N 96.65W
08/01/2007 MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER FLOWING ACROSS 12TH STREET IN MARYSVILLE. ESTIMATED
AT 4 INCHES DEEP.


&&

$$

AW

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KBIS [011439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 011439
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0813 PM TSTM WND GST 6 ENE NEWBURG 48.75N 100.79W
07/31/2007 E80 MPH BOTTINEAU ND TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGH WIND LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES WITH THE PEAK AROUND 80
MPH. DAMAGE TO TREES, GRAIN BINS, AND AN AUGER.


&&

$$

LPETERSO

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KJAX [011405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 011405
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0433 PM TSTM WND DMG POMONA PARK 29.50N 81.59W
07/31/2007 PUTNAM FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

UPDATE TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR RESIDENT HOME. A POSSIBLE
TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC...HOWEVER
...A DAMAGE SURVEY BY PUTNAM COUNTY EMA DID NOT INDICATE
ANY EVIDENCE OF A TORNADO EVENT.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

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KJAX [011350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 011350
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0944 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 N SOUTH PONTE VEDRA B 30.09N 81.32W
08/01/2007 ST. JOHNS FL BROADCAST MEDIA

FUNNEL CLOUD AT SR 16 AND WORLD GOLF VILLAGE. PINE STRAW
DEBRIS WAS SPOTTED BUT NO DAMAGE REPORTED.


&&

$$

DEESE

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KTOP [011331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 011331
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
831 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 AM HEAVY RAIN BEATTIE 39.86N 96.42W
08/01/2007 M1.70 INCH MARSHALL KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1.7 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 1.5 HOURS


&&

$$

AW

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KGID [011259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 011259
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
759 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0737 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 N ALEXANDRIA 40.26N 97.39W
08/01/2007 THAYER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY ROAD U UNDER WATER AND REPORTED FLOODED BY COUNTY
DISPATCHER.


&&

$$

CARMEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011255
SWODY1
SPC AC 011253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM MN
TO CENTRAL NEB...

..NEB TO MN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA TO ONTARIO...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/SD/NW NEB BY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ONGOING OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FRONT...WITHIN A NARROW BELT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EMANATING FROM SWRN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM 65-70 F...BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 1500
J/KG ACROSS MN TO 2500 J/KG IN CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF ONLY
20-25 KT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT
BEGINNING BY ROUGHLY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS MN...AND SWD INTO NEB. DESPITE
PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL WAVE...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
IN MN WILL NOT YIELD APPRECIABLY STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR THAN IN
NEB...WHILE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS NEB WILL LIKELY
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURE PROFILES COMPARED TO
MN. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AND LOW-END WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES SWWD INTO NEB GIVEN NO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SEVERE THREAT ALONG MUCH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

..ELSEWHERE...
THE BROAD MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SCATTERED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. FARTHER E...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY
ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SRN PLAINS SEWD TO THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL/N FL.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 08/01/2007

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KGID [011226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 011226
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
726 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM FLOOD 4 WNW ALEXANDRIA 40.27N 97.46W
08/01/2007 THAYER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. DRY SANDY CREEK
IS 3 FEET OUT OF BANK 1/2 MILE NORTH OF CONFLUENCE WITH
BIG SANDY CREEK.


&&

$$

LEW

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KGID [011219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 011219
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
718 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM HEAVY RAIN ALEXANDRIA 40.25N 97.39W
08/01/2007 M4.30 INCH THAYER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.


&&

$$

LEW

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010859
SWOD48
SPC AC 010858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

..DISCUSSION...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUGGEST UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN STATES WITH BELT OF STRONGER
WLYS IN ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM NRN PLAINS THROUGH GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY
BE MODULATED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
EWD THROUGH THIS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RETURN
NWD INTO THIS REGION IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A MORE OR LESS E-W ORIENTATION BY DAYS 5-6. DETAILS
REGARDING WHEN AND WHERE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...BUT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SPREAD EWD DURING THIS
PERIOD.

.DIAL.. 08/01/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010751
SWODY3
SPC AC 010750

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NERN STATES...

..NERN STATES...

MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE NERN STATES EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AREA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY
SERN QUEBEC SWWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH -10C AT 500 MB WILL
SPREAD EWD OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NE OF REGION WITHIN
ZONE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. HOWEVER...BELT OF WLY 25-35 KT FLOW
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG
SRN PERIPHERY OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AROUND 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.


..NRN ROCKIES THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREA...

LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA
IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE ADVANCED INTO SERN CANADA AND
THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA
TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS. LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH NEB AND INTO THE DAKOTAS AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF SD AND NEB. WHERE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING DEVELOPS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
RETREATING BOUNDARY. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF LEE TROUGH AXIS
VEERING TO WLY AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT 500 MB WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

.DIAL.. 08/01/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010551
SWODY2
SPC AC 010550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH
ONTARIO THURSDAY...REACHING QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT
ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY AND APPROACH THE NERN STATES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.

..GREAT LAKES AREA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED
NEWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED TO SOME EXTENT BY
MODEST 6-6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION ACROSS SRN CANADA AND EXTREME NRN
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...FLOW WILL INCREASE IN VICINITY
OF FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PARTS OF
LOWER MI THROUGH UPPER MI WHERE WLY 35 TO 40 KT WINDS WILL EXIST IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER. STRONGEST DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN CANADA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL EXIST ALONG FRONT
AND LAKE BREEZES TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN LOWER MI WHERE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE.


..NERN STATES...

MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NEWD THROUGH WARM
SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH SERN CANADA.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF A
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FOCUS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZES OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND THESE
MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO TIME OF DAY
WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..NRN CA...NWRN NV AND SRN OR...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD INTO THIS REGION ALONG WRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING ATTENDING
THIS FEATURE MAY PROMOTE HIGH BASE STORMS WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DIAL.. 08/01/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010538
SWODY1
SPC AC 010536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MN...

..SYNOPSIS...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AB/SK IS FORECAST
TO UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT CONTINUES ESEWD THROUGH MB
AND ONTARIO. ACCOMPANYING 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THOUGH SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONCURRENTLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LIKELY
EXTENDING FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWWD THROUGH SERN SD...N-CNTRL NEB
INTO NERN CO BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

..NRN/CNTRL MN...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PW IMAGERY SHOW AN
AXIS OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS MOIST AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY /MAINTAINED BY A SWLY 20-25 KT LLJ/ AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

SOME REMNANTS OF SMALL MCS CURRENTLY OVER NERN ND MAY BE IN PROGRESS
LATER THIS MORNING OVER NWRN/N-CNTRL MN. ANY ONGOING STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REINTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG FRONT AS AIR MASS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS APPROACHING 30 KT OVER NRN MN. THIS
MODEST FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOCALLY STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..SRN MN SWWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
2000-3000 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PROGRESSIVELY SWWD
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM W-CNTRL/SWRN MN
THROUGH ERN SD INTO NRN NEB AND EVENTUALLY NERN CO/SERN WY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST /40-45 KT/ HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. STILL...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.MEAD/GRAMS.. 08/01/2007

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KPSR [010443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 010443
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD SCOTTSDALE 33.69N 111.87W
07/31/2007 MARICOPA AZ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ROADS CLOSED IN NORTH SCOTTSDALE. AT LEAST 6 WATER
RESCUES.


&&

$$

MBRUCE

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KFGZ [010441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 010441
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
941 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM FLOOD COTTONWOOD 34.73N 112.02W
07/31/2007 YAVAPAI AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL HOMES FLOODED IN VERDE VILLAGE 8.

0445 PM FLOOD BRIDGEPORT 34.72N 111.99W
07/31/2007 YAVAPAI AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING ON UVX RD AND BATES RD. ROADS CLOSED DUE TO 1 TO
1.5 FEET OF WATER ON ROADS.

0506 PM FLOOD 2 S COTTONWOOD 34.70N 112.02W
07/31/2007 YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

INTERSECTION OF 6TH AND CYPRUS FLOODED. RECORDED 0.75
INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES.

0530 PM FLOOD 10 ENE DEWEY-HUMBOLDT 34.59N 112.09W
07/31/2007 YAVAPAI AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING ON STATE 169 NEAR YARBER WASH. SECTION OF STATE
169 CLOSED.

0601 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 N BLACK CANYON CITY 34.13N 112.11W
07/31/2007 YAVAPAI AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR MUDSLIDE/ROCKSLIDE ON INTERSTATE 17 NEAR MILE
MARKER 249.

0740 PM FLOOD HOLBROOK 34.90N 110.16W
07/31/2007 NAVAJO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

MCLAWS, WESTOVER, NAVAJO, AND FLORIDA STREETS FLOODED.
LIGHTNING KNOCKED DOWN POWER LINES.


&&

$$

DDV

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KSLC [010429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 010429
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 N VIRGIN 37.29N 113.20W
07/31/2007 WASHINGTON UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

MINOR FLASH FLOODING IN HEADWATERS OF CURRANT...
LAVERKIN...TIMBER ...AND NORTH CREEKS OF ZION NATIONAL
PARK.


&&

$$

BMCINERN

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