Saturday, June 25, 2011

KLSX [260056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 260056
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
755 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HAIL GRAFTON 38.97N 90.43W
06/25/2011 E0.50 INCH JERSEY IL PUBLIC


&&

$$

KANOFSKY

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KLSX [260052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 260052
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
752 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL GRAFTON 38.97N 90.43W
06/25/2011 E0.88 INCH JERSEY IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MILLER

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KUNR [260046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 260046
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
646 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND GST OELRICHS 43.18N 103.23W
06/25/2011 E60 MPH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BUNKERS

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KCHS [260039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 260039
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
839 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0757 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E MIDWAY 31.81N 81.39W
06/25/2011 LIBERTY GA 911 CALL CENTER

LIBERTY COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTED ONE TREE BLOWN DOWN
ON POCAHONTAS ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100554

$$

04

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KLSX [260039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 260039
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL SULLIVAN 38.22N 91.17W
06/25/2011 E0.88 INCH FRANKLIN MO AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

MILLER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 550

WWUS20 KWNS 260038
SEL0
SPC WW 260038
ILZ000-MOZ000-260700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/E CENTRAL MO. A
FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORM INITIATION SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS
WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.


...THOMPSON

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KSLC [260028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 260028
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
628 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 2 WSW LEWISTON 41.95N 111.91W
06/24/2011 E1.00 INCH CACHE UT PUBLIC

REPORT RECEIVED VIA NSSL-NWS SEVERE HAZARDS ANALYSIS AND
VERIFICATION PROJECT


&&

$$

MPS

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KBIS [260024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 260024
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
724 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW BANTRY 48.52N 100.64W
06/25/2011 E60 MPH MCHENRY ND CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KCYS [260024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260024
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
624 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 PM HAIL 8 SE CRAWFORD 42.60N 103.30W
06/25/2011 M0.50 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

0623 PM HAIL BILL 43.21N 105.26W
06/25/2011 E0.25 INCH CONVERSE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KBIS [260022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 260022
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
722 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0717 PM HEAVY RAIN UPHAM 48.58N 100.73W
06/25/2011 M2.90 INCH MCHENRY ND BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA... 2.9 IN 15 MINS


&&

$$

LHUBER

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KCYS [260011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260011
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
611 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0559 PM HAIL 20 SE HARRISON 42.48N 103.60W
06/25/2011 E0.25 INCH SIOUX NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0602 PM TSTM WND GST 10 NW CRAWFORD 42.79N 103.55W
06/25/2011 E40 MPH SIOUX NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1388

ACUS11 KWNS 260007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260007
MOZ000-KSZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS INTO CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260007Z - 260200Z

STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...OR JUST SOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS FAR ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO HAS ONLY
BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED/AGITATED LOOKING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
AND THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SBCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG IN A MOSTLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
SO...WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHEN/IF
INITIATION WILL OCCUR...EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
NEAR AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKS EWD
ACROSS KS TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS...EXPECT THEM TO
CONGEAL INTO A S/SEWD MOVING LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..LEITMAN.. 06/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39199510 39469440 39539346 39469219 39359175 39079088
38889063 38599045 38269038 37929058 37589098 37449115
37029259 37009365 37029412 37109461 37429507 38139543
38739544 39199510

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KBIS [260002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 260002
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
702 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0701 PM HAIL WILLOW CITY 48.60N 100.29W
06/25/2011 M0.75 INCH BOTTINEAU ND TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LHUBER

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KBMX [252359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252359
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM HAIL RIVERCHASE 33.35N 86.81W
06/25/2011 M0.50 INCH SHELBY AL BROADCAST MEDIA

PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL AT ABC33/40.


&&

$$

SUNGER

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KBMX [252356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252356
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM HAIL TUSCALOOSA 33.24N 87.54W
06/25/2011 M0.25 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL PUBLIC


&&

$$

SUNGER

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KBOX [252349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 252349
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM FLOOD SOUTHWICK 42.05N 72.77W
06/25/2011 HAMPDEN MA AMATEUR RADIO

STREET FLOODING CAUSING CLOSURE OF SUNNYSIDE ROAD.

0710 PM FLOOD CHICOPEE 42.18N 72.57W
06/25/2011 HAMPDEN MA TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET FLOODING REPORTED AT PENDLETON AND MEMORIAL
DRIVE WITH WATER UP TO A CAR BUMPER.

0715 PM LIGHTNING SPRINGFIELD 42.12N 72.54W
06/25/2011 HAMPDEN MA AMATEUR RADIO

GARAGE FIRE DUE TO LIGHTNING...ON ALDERMAN STREET.


&&

$$

FIELD

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KBIS [252347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252347
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM TSTM WND GST MINOT 48.23N 101.30W
06/25/2011 E63.00 MPH WARD ND CO-OP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER IN MINOT NORTH HILL REPORTED STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS... PEA SIZE HAIL... AND 0.39 OF RAIN IN 5 TO 15
MINS


&&

$$

LHUBER

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KBIS [252342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252342
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 PM HEAVY RAIN DES LACS 48.26N 101.56W
06/25/2011 M2.00 INCH WARD ND NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORT RELAYED BY NWS NCRFC


&&

$$

LHUBER

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KBMX [252337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252337
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 1 N PELHAM 33.32N 86.79W
06/25/2011 E1.00 INCH SHELBY AL PUBLIC

ESTIMATED WINDS TO 60 MPH. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS
OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL BETWEEN HOOVER AND PELHAM.


&&

$$

AG

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KJAX [252332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252332
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
732 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 PM TSTM WND GST JEKYLL ISLAND 31.04N 81.42W
06/25/2011 E60 MPH GLYNN GA NWS EMPLOYEE

RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED WINDS NEAR 60 MPH, MARBLE
SIZE HAIL AND TREE AND LIMB DAMAGE NEAR THE CAUSEWAY ON
JEKYLL ISLAND.


&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KBIS [252329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252329
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 5 NW BANTRY 48.55N 100.69W
06/25/2011 M1.50 INCH MCHENRY ND TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES.


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1387

ACUS11 KWNS 252321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252321
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...WRN SD AND SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252321Z - 260045Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT...ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

EARLY THIS EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN ND INTO EXTREME NWRN SD AND NRN WY AS
WELL AS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL AND SRN WY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AREA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING SO FAR DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST
AND APPARENTLY ARE STRUGGLING WITH A CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ENEWD
ADVECTING EML. SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE
WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...POTENTIAL STILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..DIAL.. 06/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 44910357 45410334 46310260 46140130 44570015 42439982
41540161 41580375 42560387 43000394 44220397 44910357

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KBMX [252322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252322
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL HOOVER 33.38N 86.82W
06/25/2011 E1.00 INCH JEFFERSON AL PUBLIC

AT THE GALLERIA MALL


&&

$$

SUNGER

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KBIS [252309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252309
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HAIL 4 W MAXBASS 48.72N 101.23W
06/25/2011 E1.00 INCH BOTTINEAU ND BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBIS [252304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252304
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL MOHALL 48.76N 101.51W
06/25/2011 E1.00 INCH RENVILLE ND STORM CHASER

HAIL LASTED UNTIL 530 PM CDT.


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBMX [252259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252259
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
558 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N SULLIGENT 33.95N 88.13W
06/24/2011 LAMAR AL EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE LIMBS DOWN AND SCATTERED DEBRIS ALONG AND ACROSS
HWY 17 IN NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY


&&

$$

KLAWS

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KBIS [252251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252251
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 S MOHALL 48.75N 101.51W
06/25/2011 M1.00 INCH RENVILLE ND PUBLIC

1 INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES. RELAYED BY MEDIA.


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBIS [252243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252243
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
543 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HEAVY RAIN KENMARE 48.67N 102.08W
06/25/2011 M1.00 INCH WARD ND TRAINED SPOTTER

ND ARB OBSERVER REPORTED 1 INCH IN 20 MINUTES


&&

$$

LHUBER

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KBIS [252232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252232
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM FUNNEL CLOUD PARSHALL 47.95N 102.14W
06/25/2011 MOUNTRAIL ND PUBLIC


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBMX [252227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252227
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W WHITFIELD 32.37N 88.11W
06/24/2011 SUMTER AL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 42 NEAR DERBY


&&

$$

KLAWS

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KBIS [252225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252225
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM HAIL 4 E MAXBASS 48.72N 101.05W
06/25/2011 E1.00 INCH BOTTINEAU ND PUBLIC


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBIS [252224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252224
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM HAIL PARSHALL 47.95N 102.14W
06/25/2011 E1.75 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KCYS [252223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 252223
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
423 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 4 N GLENDO 42.56N 105.03W
06/25/2011 E0.50 INCH PLATTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

HAMMER

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KBIS [252222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252222
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
522 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0519 PM HAIL MOHALL 48.76N 101.51W
06/25/2011 E0.88 INCH RENVILLE ND PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBMX [252217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252217
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
517 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL CALERA 33.10N 86.75W
06/25/2011 M0.25 INCH SHELBY AL NWS EMPLOYEE

INTERSECTION OF CR 70 AND US HWY 31


&&

$$

SUNGER

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KBIS [252210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252210
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
510 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM HAIL MAXBASS 48.72N 101.14W
06/25/2011 E1.50 INCH BOTTINEAU ND PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KBMX [252200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252200
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG CLANTON 32.84N 86.63W
06/24/2011 CHILTON AL NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE LIMBS AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF CLANTON

ON THE NORTH END OF TOWN. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 60 MPH


&&

$$

KLAWS

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KBIS [252152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252152
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
451 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN KENMARE 48.67N 102.08W
06/25/2011 M2.00 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA...


&&

$$

LHUBER

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KCYS [252134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 252134
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
333 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N LA GRANGE 41.73N 104.16W
06/25/2011 E50 MPH GOSHEN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH. A FEW SMALL TREE
BRANCHES DOWN.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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KBIS [252127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252127
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
427 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0419 PM HAIL 11 S ROSS 48.15N 102.55W
06/25/2011 M1.75 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA...


&&

$$

LHUBER

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KBIS [252125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252125
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
425 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HAIL 18 E BATTLEVIEW 48.58N 102.40W
06/25/2011 M1.00 INCH BURKE ND TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL... HAIL LASTED ABOUT FIVE
MINUTES...


&&

$$

LHUBER

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KBIS [252123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252123
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
423 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HAIL 3 S NEW TOWN 47.94N 102.49W
06/25/2011 M1.50 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH FEW PING PONG BALL
SIZE HAIL...


&&

$$

LHUBER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 549

WWUS20 KWNS 252107
SEL9
SPC WW 252107
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-260100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
407 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 549 ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ILLINOIS
KENTUCKY
MISSOURI

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KUNR [252055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 252055
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
255 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL 5 NE HERMOSA 43.89N 103.12W
06/24/2011 E1.75 INCH PENNINGTON SD PUBLIC

ESTIMATED WINDS AT 80 MPH.


&&

$$

KCLARK

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KBIS [252049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252049
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM HAIL 2 S NEW TOWN 47.95N 102.49W
06/25/2011 E1.00 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

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KBIS [252034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252034
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0329 PM HAIL 5 S 4 BEARS LODGE 47.91N 102.57W
06/25/2011 E1.25 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NHEINERT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1386

ACUS11 KWNS 252024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252024
NDZ000-252130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252024Z - 252130Z

A FEW SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN ND
INVOF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NWRN ND INTO SERN MT.
NEAR AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE
COMMON...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. WHILE MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS LACKING IN
THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SFC DIABATIC HEATING COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF CONVECTION. WITH THIS REGION ON
THE ERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT CENTERED OVER ERN MT...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 30 TO 40 KT COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND
A SVR THREAT. MULTICELLULAR AND OCCASIONALLY SUPERCELLULAR MODES MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...AND
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A
SVR TSTM WATCH.

..COHEN.. 06/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47480335 48890229 48929981 47909908 46150043 46070291
46670352 47480335

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1385

ACUS11 KWNS 251959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251959
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA...WRN
KY...WRN-MIDDLE TN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549...

VALID 251959Z - 252130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549
CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW. IN ADDITION TO EXISTING CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR
SWD BACKBUILDING...TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THIS REGION LATE IN WW VALID
TIME FRAME FROM AREAS OF SERN KS OR SWRN MO. AREAS S AND E OF WW
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE AS TRENDS
WARRANT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT FEATURES...
1. MAIN SFC WARM FRONT FROM ERN AL NWWD THROUGH HSV-FAM
LINE...BLENDING WITH
2. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS THAT EXTENDS GENERALLY WWD
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN MO INTO SERN KS AND AREA COVERED BY SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383. THIS MAY SUPPORT LATER
DEVELOPMENT/MOTION OF CONVECTION INTO SRN MO.
3. SECONDARY/NRN WARM FRONTAL ZONE FROM STL AREA SEWD ACROSS WRN
KY...NEAR SWRN FRINGE OF PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT
STILL MAY POST THREAT FOR ISOLATED/MRGL HAIL AND GUSTS.
4. STG PRESSURE FALLS -- I.E. UP TO ABOUT 7 MB PER 2-HOUR
WAKE-DEPRESSION OVER NERN MO THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY REMOVED
FROM MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. AMPLITUDE OF
ISALLOBARIC WAVE ALSO IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER TODAY...WITH
MUCH WEAKER RISES.

LATTER FACTOR APPEARS TO REDUCE -- BUT DEFINITELY NOT ELIMINATE --
POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT. DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS STILL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME RISK FOR UPSCALE
GROWN AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COLD POOL S OF ORIGINAL ONE. IN
MEANTIME...ANY SUCH STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE
PROCESSES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED ACROSS WW AREA -- E.G.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT ESTIMATED FROM MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS -- PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT ALOFT S OF
IA MCV AND PARTLY DUE TO BACKING OF NEAR-SFC WINDS BETWEEN WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENTS. GIVEN STG DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND RELATED
ANTICYCLONIC/SEWD SHIFT OF MID-UPPER FLOW ACROSS WRN KY AND WRN/MID
TN...AND FAVORABLY BUOYANT/MOIST AIR MASS DOWNSHEAR...ANY COMPLEX
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER WW AREA SHOULD TURN MORE ESEWD/SEWD.

..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON 38309110 38909000 37688689 35378664 35128748 35338846
35598909 36228988 36859079 38309110

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251956
SWODY1
SPC AC 251954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID
MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AREA...

...OZARKS/MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS...
SEWD/SWD STORM PROPAGATION WITH MID MS VALLEY CONVECTION APPEARS
LESS LIKELY ATTM...AND THUS HAVE TRIMMED SLIGHT RISK NWWD IN THE
MS/AL REGION. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO OCCUR
FROM SERN KS ACROSS MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
ONGOING STORMS. AS POST-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS RECOVERS...INSTABILITY
-- IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE EXISTING SHEAR -- SUPPORTS CONTINUATION
OF THE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF
AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH SEWD/SWD MOVEMENT ACROSS
MO -- AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN AR -- EXPECTED.

...NRN PLAINS AREA...
INCREASING CU EVIDENT FROM WRN ND SWD INTO SRN/ERN WY ATTM REVEALS
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE UVV...WITH FORECAST FOR
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION STILL ON TRACK.
DESTABILIZATION ONGOING COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR INDICATED
ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RISK FORECAST IN
THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 06/25/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011/

...LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...

RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT NOCTURNAL MCS ONGOING OVER MO HAS GENERATED
A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD
INTO IL TODAY. FORCING ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG AGGREGATE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW-SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM E-CNTRL KS
THROUGH CNTRL MO AND FAR WRN KY INTO MIDDLE TN...WILL FOCUS THE MOST
INTENSE TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AIR MASS ALONG
AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO
2000-3500 J/KG.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONGOING STORMS OVER CNTRL MO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG ABOVE-MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO-TYPE STORM
STRUCTURES WITH ATTENDANT RISKS OF A TORNADO OR TWO...LARGE HAIL AND
CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE FROM THE OZARKS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 1382.

MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM TSTM CLUSTER OVER WRN KY MAY GROW UPSCALE
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ENCOUNTERS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO
MS/AL. DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS WOULD
TEND TO MOVE MORE SWD WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...DAKOTAS/NEB/WY...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY THIS
EVENING WITH SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT GLANCING
REGION NEAR THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS COUPLED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SETTLING SEWD THROUGH THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND ASCENT ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT OWING TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN WY
WILL MAINTAIN 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH NRN EXTENSION OF
EML...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 35-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR.
AS SUCH THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1384

ACUS11 KWNS 251924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251924
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...FAR WRN SD...FAR WRN NEB...FAR NERN
CO...FAR SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251924Z - 252100Z

THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS IS
INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS...AND
MORE RECENTLY THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS...OF SRN WY...IN RESPONSE TO
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRIVEN BY
STRONG HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAYS THIS
REGION...WITH THE DENVER 12Z SOUNDING INDICATING A 700-500-MB LAPSE
RATE OF 8.2 C/KM. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUED INSOLATION
SUPPORTING FURTHER STEEPENING OF LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL...AND DEEPENING OF
EXISTING...CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN WY AND FAR NERN CO.
ONCE WLY/W-SWLY STEERING-LAYER FLOW SHIFTS CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AOA 20F SUPPORTING SVR WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ALSO BE ENHANCED ALONG A WEAK SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM SERN MT INTO CNTRL WY...WHICH COINCIDES WITH A REGION
OF RELATIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

..COHEN.. 06/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 45200458 44550351 42760268 41300302 40720353 40590430
40690521 40950551 41300559 41610545 42070515 42530523
42890571 43380625 43750644 44520630 45040546 45200458

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