Friday, September 19, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200041
SWODY1
SPC AC 200038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PARTS OF THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND SOUTHERN CASCADES...WHERE COOLING /LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY/TAHOE
REGION IS OVERSPREADING A WARM AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.
SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.

...REMAINDER OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...
THE BULK OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU...INTO THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...APPEARS LARGELY TIED TO
DAYTIME HEATING. AND...A RAPID DECREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY SEEMS
PROBABLE DURING THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME...IF NOT BEFORE.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN DIGGING ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO...IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO BECOME FOCUSED NORTHEAST OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHERE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL
EXIST. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST... ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. BUT...LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION ALREADY PRESENT...COUPLED WITH BROADER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...PROBABLY
WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION.

...MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE POLAR WESTERLIES...IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STABILIZATION WITH
THE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MOIST/
UNSTABLE ENOUGH...GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING...TO MAINTAIN
A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR/EAST THROUGH SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

..KERR.. 09/20/2008

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KPAH [192349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 192349
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE CAPE GIRARDEAU 37.32N 89.54W
09/19/2008 M1.40 INCH CAPE GIRARDEAU MO TRAINED SPOTTER

1.40 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES.


&&

$$

SMITTY

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KPAH [192331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 192331
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 PM HAIL 1 NE CAPE GIRARDEAU 37.32N 89.54W
09/19/2008 M0.88 INCH CAPE GIRARDEAU MO TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF COMMUNITY WITH
ESTIMATED 40 MPH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM.


&&

$$

SMITTY

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KPAH [192327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 192327
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD CAPE GIRARDEAU 37.31N 89.55W
09/19/2008 CAPE GIRARDEAU MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO STANDING WATER FROM HEAVY RAINS AT
INTERSECTION OF BIG BEND AND NORTH END BLVD.


&&

$$

SMITTY

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KABQ [192259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 192259
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
459 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM TSTM WND GST 12 SW MESA 33.86N 104.82W
09/19/2008 E75.00 MPH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CJONES

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KABQ [192224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 192224
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
423 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0406 PM HAIL 7 WSW MESA 33.95N 104.79W
09/19/2008 M1.00 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CJONES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191952
SWODY1
SPC AC 191949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. FARTHER SOUTH...A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE AR/MO VICINITY...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING THE NORTHERN CA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY
WINDS...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS
/15-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ ARE EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE /50S F DEWPOINTS/...A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP AROUND
850 MB...AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 09/19/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191727
SWODY2
SPC AC 191725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
WEAKENING/SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE-LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE IN THE WESTERN STATES AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC...A COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. OWING TO MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER /75-80 F/...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP/INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE
TSTMS...INCLUDING STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE TO
AROUND 1000-1250 J/KG...BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES SUGGESTS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONSIDERABLY LIMIT A
SEVERE RISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. RELATIVELY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONGER TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT VERY WEAK LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD CONSIDERABLY LIMIT ANY SEVERE RISK.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
WITH THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A COOL UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ORE/ID AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ID/WESTERN
MT GIVEN THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ANY SUCH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL IN
NATURE.

..GUYER.. 09/19/2008

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KCHS [191631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 191631
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1231 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1136 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
09/19/2008 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

A HIGH TIDE LEVEL OF 7.31 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WAS
MEASURED BY THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION ON
CHARLESTON HARBOR.


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191628
SWODY1
SPC AC 191625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MAIN BAND OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WHILE A FEW WEAKER AND SLOW MOVING
UPPER FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. ONE
SUCH TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OK TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM
SOUTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL MS. A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK WIND
FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO GREATLY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..HART.. 09/19/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191255
SWODY1
SPC AC 191253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY BELT OF MID LEVEL WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER SRN CANADA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER SRN STREAM FROM NRN CA TO THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. WITHIN THIS SRN
STREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OFF THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST...A SECOND WAVE IS MOVING EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...AND A THIRD WAVE IS APPROACHING NW CA. THE
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL RESIDE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LATTER TWO TROUGHS OVER THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT
BASIN. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN MN THIS MORNING SHOULD
DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH MIDDAY AS A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
SPREADS EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM AR/LA TO MS. DESPITE
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 500-750
J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS TODAY ACROSS
MS...THOUGH THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEVERAL DIFFUSE MID LEVEL TROUGHS FROM NV TO CO. A
STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FROM NRN CA/ORE TO NV/ID BY
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH FROM NRN
NV INTO SW ID...WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK BUOYANCY.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 09/19/2008

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KKEY [191037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 191037
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
637 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM TSTM WND GST 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
09/19/2008 M45 MPH GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

39 KNOT WIND GUST FROM A THUNDERSTORM REPORTED AT PULASKI
SHOAL LIGHT.


&&

$$

COTTRILL

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KIWX [191014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 191014
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
614 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW NEW TROY 41.87N 86.57W
09/13/2008 BERRIEN MI BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** TIME OF EVENT UNKOWN. 76 YEAR OLD MALE
DROWNED NEAR INTERSECTION OF MINNICH AND HANOVER ROADS.
GALIEN RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATE DEPTH OF WATER NEAR 5
FEET DEEP AT THE CREST OF FLOOD EVENT. 3 DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE VICINITY RANGED FROM 9 TO JUST OVER 12
INCHES FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND
HURRICANE IKE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801855

$$

PBM

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190848
SWOD48
SPC AC 190848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY.
BEYOND THE DAY4 PERIOD...MOVEMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS HANDLED A BIT DIFFERENTLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS. THE GFS IS STRONGER/SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
ECMWF. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY MON-WED TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED/INTENSITY WILL NEGATE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 09/19/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190713
SWODY3
SPC AC 190711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EJECTING A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE...H5 FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT/FOCUS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DEEP VEERING PROFILES WITHIN A FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION. WHILE THE MAIN LIMITATION FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE THE
SOMEWHAT WEAK INSTABILITY...IT DOES APPEAR SFC-BASED CAPE COULD
APPROACH 1000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO BE STRONGER WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
CO/KS. IF FORECAST INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION...IN
LATER MODEL RUNS...THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW.. 09/19/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190532
SWODY1
SPC AC 190530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE TODAY
ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN NEB AND CNTRL MN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND MAY PERSIST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AS SFC
TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

..BROYLES.. 09/19/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190530
SWODY2
SPC AC 190527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2008

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL ENSURE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE
COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. NRN STREAM TROUGHING
OVER SERN CANADA WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO SURGE INTO
THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
LATE AFTERNOON POSITION EXPECTED FROM SRN LOWER MI...WWD TO NEAR THE
MN/IA BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED
ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

...MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION UNTIL GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE KICKS IT EWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY
MOIST PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
WILL EASILY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AGAIN...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION AND STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC.

...ROCKIES...

GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WY/CO LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ENHANCING BUOYANCY AND THE PROSPECT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM ID/WRN
MT...SWD INTO NM...AND PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 09/19/2008

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