ACUS11 KWNS 150043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150042
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN KS/NRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...
VALID 150042Z - 150145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
CONTINUES.
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD
FROM EAST CENTRAL TO SWRN MO AND THEN WWD THROUGH FAR SERN-SOUTH
CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK /WOODS COUNTY/. THE SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NWRN OK PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SWD...ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS WITHIN WW 615. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED NWWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO WRN
KS. AIR MASS ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/...WITH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 7-8 C/KM.
...SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF WW 615...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE E-W PORTION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
SERN KS AND FAR NRN OK. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINEAR
STRUCTURES...WHILE ADDITIONAL TSTM MERGERS/COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES
EWD.
...WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW 615...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SPLITTING SUPERCELLS /RIGHT MOVERS
FAVORED/ HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF THIS WATCH IN WEST
CENTRAL KS SINCE 2230Z. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG A SWD
MOVING FRONT THROUGH WRN KS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
GREELEY TO JEWELL COUNTIES AT 00Z. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG AND E OF THE NWRN EXTENSION OF THE SRN KS BOUNDARY.
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ESEWD THROUGH
WRN/CENTRAL KS. THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD MARK THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH COUNTIES N OF THIS
BOUNDARY BEING REMOVED FROM THE WATCH.
...FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO...
EVOLUTION OF TSTMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SERN
KS WILL DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH DOWNSTREAM INTO SWRN MO.
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE E OF WW 615 WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN MCS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN KS INTO MO TONIGHT WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED WITH A NEW
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
..PETERS.. 08/15/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 38300196 39129946 39189790 38639564 38429557 38309497
37879451 37689405 37539352 37129363 36589428 36359513
36179613 36529692 36489857 36609907 36689997 37030034
37080066 37570089 37810119 38300196
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