KPSR [010210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 010210
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
710 PM MST MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 PM DUST STORM 6 SSE QUEEN CREEK 33.17N 111.60W
08/31/2009 PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY OF ONE QUARTER MILE IN BLOWING DUST. ESTIMATED
WIND SPEEDS OF 40 MPH.

&&

$$

JROGERS

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KMLB [010134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMLB 010134
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
934 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL WINTER PARK 28.60N 81.34W
08/31/2009 E0.75 INCH ORANGE FL PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR INTERSECTION OF UNIVERSITY BLVD AND
GOLDEN ROD RD.

&&

$$

JRC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010059
SWODY1
SPC AC 010055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT TO CO/NORTHEAST NM HIGH PLAINS...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS A
BROAD NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WY/CO AND NORTHEAST NM. AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER MT THIS EVENING...RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES /-11C AT 500 MB PER GREAT FALLS 00Z OBSERVED RAOB/
AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT/SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
/1700+ J PER KG MUCAPE PER 00Z RIVERTON RAOB/ MAY SUPPORT A STORM OR
TWO CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT/WY...MAINLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY POSE A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST NM
PLAINS...BUT NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED CINH IS SUGGESTIVE OF A WANING
TREND WITH AN ALREADY ISOLATED/MARGINAL RISK.

...FL/SOUTHEAST STATES...
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/NOCTURNAL INDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION AND OTHERWISE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A WANING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/01/2009

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KTBW [010039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 010039
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
839 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL 1 W FORT MEADE 27.75N 81.81W
08/31/2009 E1.00 INCH POLK FL PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY A BUSINESS ON BROADWAY
STREET.

0710 PM HAIL 1 W FORT MEADE 27.75N 81.81W
08/31/2009 E0.88 INCH POLK FL PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY A BUSINESS ON BROADWAY
STREET.

0800 PM HAIL 6 N WAUCHULA 27.62N 81.82W
08/31/2009 E0.75 INCH HARDEE FL PUBLIC

PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY A BUSINESS ON OAK AVENUE.

&&

$$

JILLSON

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KBOU [010025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 010025
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
625 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 9 NE BYERS 39.80N 104.11W
08/31/2009 M1.25 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

DRIFTS OF HAIL 10 INCHES DEEP

0537 PM HAIL 5 S BENNETT 39.68N 104.42W
08/31/2009 M1.00 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KPDT [010012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KPDT 010012
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
511 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 E1.25 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 M1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, COVERING GROUND TO A DEPTH OF 1
INCH IN PLACES. SMALL LIMBS BROUGHT DOWN.

0605 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 M1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

GROUND WHITE WITH 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. SMALL BRANCHES
DOWN.

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN LOSTINE 45.49N 117.43W
08/29/2009 M1.10 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

RAIN GAGE IN LOSTINE MEASURED 1.1 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND
0.85 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES.

0650 PM HAIL 2 S WALLOWA 45.54N 117.53W
08/29/2009 E0.25 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

1/4 INCH HAIL. HEAVY RAIN FLOODED DRIVEWAY BUT NO DAMAGE.

0650 PM HAIL WALLOWA 45.57N 117.53W
08/29/2009 E0.50 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

PLASTIC LAWN CHAIRS BLOWN ACROSS YARD. SMALL HAIL COVERED
GROUND WITH LARGEST HAIL 1/2 INCH.

0655 PM HAIL 2 W WALLOWA 45.57N 117.57W
08/29/2009 E0.50 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL. STRONG GUSTS BLEW A FEW SHINGLES
OFF ROOF OF HOME.

0700 PM HAIL 3 NW WALLOWA 45.60N 117.57W
08/29/2009 E1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN FOR ALMOST AN HOUR BUT NO
FLOODING.

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE ELGIN 45.58N 117.86W
08/29/2009 E1.50 INCH UNION OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CRICKET FLATS. NO FLOODING OBSERVED.

&&
SUMMARY OF THUNDERSTORM REPORTS FROM 29 AUG 2009.
$$

JM

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KFGZ [010007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 010007
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
507 PM MST MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL SKULL VALLEY 34.50N 112.68W
08/31/2009 E1.00 INCH YAVAPAI AZ PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD SKULL VALLEY 34.50N 112.68W
08/31/2009 YAVAPAI AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 FT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD AT INTERSECTION OF COPPER
BASIN AND PEAVINE ROADS

&&

$$

JJ

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KPDT [010006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 010006
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
505 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN LOSTINE 45.49N 117.43W
08/29/2009 M1.10 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

RAIN GAGE IN LOSTINE MEASURED 1.1 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND
0.85 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES.

0650 PM HAIL 2 S WALLOWA 45.54N 117.53W
08/29/2009 E0.25 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

1/4 INCH HAIL. HEAVY RAIN FLOODED DRIVEWAY BUT NO DAMAGE.

0650 PM HAIL WALLOWA 45.57N 117.53W
08/29/2009 E0.50 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

PLASTIC LAWN CHAIRS BLOWN ACROSS YARD. SMALL HAIL COVERED
GROUND WITH LARGEST HAIL 1/2 INCH.

0655 PM HAIL 2 W WALLOWA 45.57N 117.57W
08/29/2009 E0.50 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL. STRONG GUSTS BLEW A FEW SHINGLES
OFF ROOF OF HOME.

0700 PM HAIL 3 NW WALLOWA 45.60N 117.57W
08/29/2009 E1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN FOR ALMOST AN HOUR BUT NO
FLOODING.

&&

$$

JM

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KMLB [312353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 312353
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
753 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL WINTER PARK 28.60N 81.34W
08/31/2009 E0.25 INCH ORANGE FL PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR INTERSECTION OF UNIVERSITY BLVD AND
GOLDEN ROD RD.

&&

$$

JRC

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KBOU [312338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 312338
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
538 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 5 S BENNETT 39.68N 104.42W
08/31/2009 M1.00 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KMLB [312308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 312308
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
708 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HAIL 5 W AZALEA PARK 28.55N 81.38W
08/31/2009 E0.25 INCH ORANGE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

NEAR INTERSECTION OF FAIRBANKS AVE AND I-4.

&&

$$

JRC

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KMLB [312248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 312248
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
648 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 PM HAIL OSTEEN 28.85N 81.16W
08/31/2009 M0.88 INCH VOLUSIA FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER NEAR INTERSECTION OF 415 AND REED ELLIS
ROAD REPORTED DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

JRC

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KABQ [312201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 312201
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
401 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM HAIL 1 NW OCATE 36.18N 105.06W
08/31/2009 E1.00 INCH MORA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL LASTED 10 MINUTES AND COVERED THE
GROUND.

&&

$$

CJONES

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KTFX [312149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 312149
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
349 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM TSTM WND GST 1 ENE BELGRADE 45.78N 111.16W
08/31/2009 M48 MPH GALLATIN MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

PEAK WIND GUST OF 48 MPH AT THE BOZEMAN AIRPORT.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311940
SWODY1
SPC AC 311937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING REGARDING SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
SCENARIOS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY AREA OF
CONCERN IS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WHERE DEEPENING CU FIELD IS NOTED
FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE OF SERN WY...SWD INTO THE SAN JUANS OF CO.
THIS CONVECTION WILL SOON DEVELOP LIGHTNING BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD
THE PLAINS WHERE MLCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER FORECAST.

..DARROW/ROBINSON.. 08/31/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009/

...SOUTHEAST...
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S-SEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/SRN GA TODAY...LIMITING DEGREE
OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ALTHOUGH...WEAKENING MID LEVEL
IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS INTO GA...WHILE FRONT/SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND. 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER FL INDICATED SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPS /AROUND -7C TO -8C AT H5/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF
FL. THEREFORE...A FEW MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PULSE-SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES TODAY. NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WY/SWRN MT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE
LATER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS. FARTHER S-SE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE NARROW ZONE OF
INCREASED WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND NRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW
SKIRTING THE WY/CO BORDER REGION TODAY. THIS MAY INCREASE SHEAR/EWD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN POSE A RISK OF HAIL/WIND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EWD THREAT OF SVR MORE LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO
STRONGER CINH.

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KPDT [311923]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 311923
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1222 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE ELGIN 45.58N 117.86W
08/29/2009 E1.50 INCH UNION OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CRICKET FLATS. NO FLOODING OBSERVED.

&&

$$

MJOHNSON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311849
SWODY2
SPC AC 311846

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER
LOW ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TOP THE WRN
U.S. RIDGE BEFORE TURNING SEWD INTO WRN SD LATE. OF SOME CONCERN
WILL BE THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY FROM WRN SD INTO NERN
CO. A WELL PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THIS
REGION WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN REGIONS WHERE STRONGER
HEATING/STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS UPPER FEATURE WITH PWAT VALUES ONLY
EXPECTED TO APPROACH ONE INCH. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...SOUTHERN AZ...

NRN EXTENT OF MEXICAN MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXTEND INTO SRN AZ DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD. IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NECESSARY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE THAN ADEQUATE CLOUD LAYER MOISTURE/BUOYANCY
FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS BENEATH STRONGER STORMS.

..DARROW.. 08/31/2009

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KBRO [311830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 311830
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW HARLINGEN 26.17N 97.75W
08/30/2009 M2.99 INCH CAMERON TX PUBLIC

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL 4.7 MILES WSW HARLINGEN. 2.89
INCHES OF THE TOTAL FELL BETWEEN 230 AND 345 PM. COCORAHS
REPORT

0630 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW HARLINGEN 26.17N 97.75W
08/30/2009 M2.47 INCH CAMERON TX PUBLIC

RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 2PM TO 630PM ON SUNDAY 4.3 MILES WSW
HARLINGEN. COCORAHS REPORT.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE LA FERIA 26.20N 97.78W
08/31/2009 M2.86 INCH CAMERON TX PUBLIC

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 2.2 MILES SSW OF PALM VALLEY.
COCORAHS REPORT.

&&

$$

HART

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KHGX [311755]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 311755
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0948 PM TORNADO 7 NE GALVESTON 29.30N 94.81W
08/30/2009 F1 GALVESTON TX NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 3 INJ *** WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE AND SEVERELY
DAMAGED A GIFT SHOP AT 29TH STREET AND SEAWALL BLVD WITH
WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AND HALF OF METAL ROOF REMOVED. WINDOWS
OF A PATROL CAR WERE BLOWN OUT IN THE SAME AREA. DAMAGE
PATH CONTINUED NORTHWEST ABOUT ONE THIRD A MILE WITH
DAMAGE TO SEVERAL STRUCTURES. DAMAGE SUPPORTS LOW END EF1
RATING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 90 MPH.

&&

$$

DREILLY

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KMSO [311704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KMSO 311704
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1104 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 14 N SALMON 45.38N 113.89W
08/30/2009 LEMHI ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

RECEIVED REPORTS FROM LEMHI COUNTY DISPATCH OF MUDSLIDES
ALONG THE FOURTH OF JULY CREEK ROAD NEAR MILEMARKER 321 -
HWY 93 SOUTH. MUDSLIDES...ROCKS...AND BOULDERS MADE
FOURTH OF JULY CREEK ROAD IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

NOLTE

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KMSO [311640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 311640
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1039 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1033 PM FLASH FLOOD 14 N SALMON 45.38N 113.89W
08/30/2009 LEMHI ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

RECEIVED REPORTS FROM LEMHI COUNTY DISPATCH OF MUDSLIDES
ALONG THE FOURTH OF JULY CREEK ROAD NEAR MILEMARKER 321 -
HWY 93 SOUTH. MUDSLIDES...ROCKS...AND BOULDERS MADE
FOURTH OF JULY CREEK ROAD IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

NOLTE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311622
SWODY1
SPC AC 311618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST...
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S-SEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/SRN GA TODAY...LIMITING DEGREE
OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ALTHOUGH...WEAKENING MID LEVEL
IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS INTO GA...WHILE FRONT/SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND. 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER FL INDICATED SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPS /AROUND -7C TO -8C AT H5/ WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF
FL. THEREFORE...A FEW MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PULSE-SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES TODAY. NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT
SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WY/SWRN MT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE
LATER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS. FARTHER S-SE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE NARROW ZONE OF
INCREASED WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND NRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW
SKIRTING THE WY/CO BORDER REGION TODAY. THIS MAY INCREASE SHEAR/EWD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN POSE A RISK OF HAIL/WIND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EWD THREAT OF SVR MORE LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO
STRONGER CINH.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 08/31/2009

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KEWX [311518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 311518
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1018 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE PALMETO 29.59N 97.59W
08/27/2009 GONZALES TX PARK SERVICE

THERE WAS A TREE DOWN OVER THE ROAD LEADING INTO THE
PALMETTO STATE PARK

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900047

$$

AKF

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KVEF [311505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 311505
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
805 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MERCURY 36.66N 116.00W
08/30/2009 M58.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

THE MERCURY A23 MESONET SITE RECORDED A GUST OF 58 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KEWX [311459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 311459
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
959 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM TSTM WND DMG PAIGE 30.22N 97.12W
08/28/2009 BASTROP TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LARGE TREES DOWN AND COVERING ROADWAYS AT PAIGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900046

$$

AKF

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KCHS [311354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 311354
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
954 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM DOWNBURST COLLEGE PARK 33.02N 80.10W
08/31/2009 BERKELEY SC NWS STORM SURVEY

NATIONAL WEATHER SEVICE DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM HAS EVALUATED
THE DAMAGE OBSERVED AT CHARLESTON SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY.
THREE LARGE TREES WERE BLOW DOWN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS
LARGE LIMBS. THERE WAS NO APPARENT DAMAGE TO ANY
BUILDINGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AIR CONDITIONER UNIT
THAT SUSTAINED WIND DAMAGE. DAMAGE PATH WAS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1/2 MILE LONG AND 1/4 MILE WIDE. DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH A DOWNBURST WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 60-70 MPH.

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311254
SWODY1
SPC AC 311250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS
POSITIVE TILT ERN TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD AND SRN RCKYS RDG
BUILDS A BIT E INTO THE PLNS. THE ID UPR LOW MAY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS
IT EDGES SLOWLY E AHEAD OF DEEPENING SYSTEM OFF THE BC CST.

SLOWLY-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG THE GULF AND
S ATLANTIC CSTS. AND...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF EXPANSIVE
MS VLY SFC RDG WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS
OVER THE RCKYS.

...FL/SERN STATES...
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SC...EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ON E SIDE OF
LARGER SCALE ERN TROUGH...SHOULD CONTINUE NE OFF THE MD/VA CST BY
MIDDAY...LEAVING WEAKENING MID LVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AL/GA BY
AFTN/EVE.

SCTD STG TO LOCALLY SVR TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ALONG THE SC/SRN
NC CST LATER THIS MORNING...WHERE HI PW VALUES AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT MAY YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF LOCALLY SVR WIND. FARTHER W...SFC
HEATING AND APPROACH OF ARKLATEX IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
STORMS ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST AND OVER FL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT AVAILABILITY OF RICH MOISTURE /PW TO 2
INCHES/ AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD YIELD A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF FL AND PERHAPS CSTL GA THIS AFTN.

...NRN/CNTRL RCKYS...
COOL AIR ALOFT /MINUS 12C AT 500 MB/ AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH ID UPR LOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS/BANDS OF
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS OVER SW MT AND WRN/NRN WY LATER TODAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN PLACE...GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT
OF UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES...WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER E CNTRL/SE
MT INVOF LEE TROUGH. 500-1200 J/KG SBCAPE AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR
/AOB 30 KTS/ COULD SUPPORT SOME STG/LOCALLY SVR STORMS WITH
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

FARTHER S...ISOLD TO POSSIBLY SCTD TSTMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FROM ERN WY
THROUGH ERN CO INTO E CNTRL NM. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...A
FEW OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVE COULD YIELD SVR
HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY FORM WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...SUCH AS NEAR THE DENVER CYCLONE. BUT
OVERALL SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL GIVEN MODEST
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RAPID INCREASE OF CIN WITH EWD EXTENT INTO
THE PLNS.

...SRN AZ...
SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF UPR RDG AND GRADUAL MOISTENING OVER REGION MAY
SUPPORT AN UPTURN IN STORM COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL/SE AZ RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. 15-20 KT ESELY MID LVL FLOW
OVER SE AZ MAY SUPPORT WWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS TOWARD/INTO THE LWR
DESERT...AND A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS...LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE RDG AND INITIALLY MODEST
MOISTURE...SVR PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED ATTM.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 08/31/2009

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KCHS [311228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 311228
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
828 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM TSTM WND DMG COLLEGE PARK 33.02N 80.10W
08/31/2009 BERKELEY SC BROADCAST MEDIA

LOCAL MEDIA REPORTING WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF CARS AND DORMS
AT CHARLESTON SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY. STUDENTS WERE
EVACUATED TO TEH LOWEST FLOORS OF THE BUILDING. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM IN IN ROUTE TO
EVALUATE DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

$$

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KCHS [311219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 311219
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
819 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE LADSON 32.95N 80.07W
08/31/2009 CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE TREE DOWN ON INTERSTATE 26.

&&

$$

JRL

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KCHS [311120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 311120
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
720 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM HEAVY RAIN SUMMERVILLE 33.02N 80.18W
08/31/2009 M1.20 INCH DORCHESTER SC TRAINED SPOTTER

1.20 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE TIME FROM 630 TO 710 AM.

&&

$$

VB

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310845
SWOD48
SPC AC 310845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...

THE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLES REMAINS LARGE CONCERNING THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN EVOLUTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS...AND PROGGED TO NOSE TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT...RECENT TRENDS IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE AWAY FROM STRONG DIGGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...WITH PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND
UPPER FORCING MOST SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
APPEARS LOW UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..KERR.. 08/31/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE DOWNSTREAM CUT-OFF LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT INLAND
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN WASHINGTON
STATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A TROUGH FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM MAY GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES...BUT THE MAIN POLAR JET SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THE WEAKER FLOW
OVER THE U.S...MID/UPPER RIDGING LIKELY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...WHILE A CYCLONIC REGIME LINGERS IN
THE EAST. AS A RESULT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...AND HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN STRONGER HEATING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND IN A FAVORABLE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS.

...PLAINS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW /30+ KT AT AROUND 500 MB/ WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ON THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. ABOVE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH/DIFFUSE DRY LINE...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE STEEP AND LARGE-SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT...SEASONABLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH RATHER WARM LOWER/MID-LEVELS WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH
CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION. THUS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS MAY
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE MORE VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
STORMS...WHICH MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE AT THEIR PEAK
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 08/31/2009

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KHGX [310513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 310513
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1213 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 PM TORNADO GALVESTON 29.30N 94.80W
08/30/2009 F0 GALVESTON TX NEWSPAPER

*** 3 INJ *** WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE BETWEEN 33RD AND
29TH STREETS. BLEW WINDOW OUT OF A POLICE CAR AND TOOK
THE ROOF OFF A SOUVENIR SHOP ON THE 2900 BLOCK OF SEA
WALL BLVD. THREE INJURED FROM EITHER SHATTERED VEHICLE
GLASS OR FLYING STRUCTURAL DEBRIS. TWO RESIDENCES ON 29TH
STREET RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WITH
REPORTS OF ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE.

&&

$$

BLOOD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310507
SWODY2
SPC AC 310506

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
ACROSS THE U.S. FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER LATITUDES...WELL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WEAK GENERALLY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE A CYCLONIC REGIME
LINGERS IN THE EAST. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG ZONAL JET NOSES
ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC. AND THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
SHARPENING OR AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ALONG AN AXIS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS A
SMALL CLOSED LOW FINALLY PROGRESSES TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE LATTER CIRCULATION APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE PENINSULA...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY LOW-LEVEL
COOLING AND DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE
BOUNDARY DESTABILIZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE CAPE MAY BECOME
SIZABLE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAYER. GIVEN
WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MODEST TO WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SHEAR...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A CONCERN
THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY/
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURN REMAINING CUT
OFF...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EVEN FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER BASED PARCELS NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT PROFILES TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF A HIGH CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A STEADILY MOISTENING AIR MASS
SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS LOW...BUT A VERY WARM AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS.

..KERR.. 08/31/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310506
SWODY1
SPC AC 310503

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEST WESTERLIES WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS AMIDST A GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN. REMNANT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IN THE WEST...UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL LIKELY OPEN/SLOWLY
PROGRESS ENE TOWARD MT/NORTHERN WY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE.

...NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE...
WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...GENERAL EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF OPENING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT
/AROUND -12C AT 500 MB/ WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MT/WY TODAY. TSTMS SHOULD DIURNALLY
INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT
PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF LEE
TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE ENVIRONMENT WITH UP TO 500-1200 J/KG
MUCAPE...AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /30 KT OR LESS/...MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT/NORTHERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST WY/CO/NM FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
HIGHER TERRAIN/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FROM EASTERN WY TO EASTERN CO
AND NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW
OF THE STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN NATURE. CAPPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD AGAIN CONFINE THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE FRONT RANGE
AREAS/IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.

...FL/SOUTHEAST STATES...
LOW LATITUDE/SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE/S ALOFT...WITHIN THE BASE OF
THE WANING EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH...SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST/NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
SAGGING EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE AND FL SEA BREEZE/S. ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT...CLOUD COVER/MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO
TEMPER OPPORTUNITIES FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL
STORM VIGOR...BUT A MOIST AIRMASS/MODERATE CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ALOFT
COULD YIELD A FEW MICROBURSTS MAINLY ACROSS FL/PERHAPS COASTAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHERN AZ...
WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND GRADUAL
MOISTENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME A BIT
MORE COMMON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/31
TUCSON OBSERVED RAOB...15-20 KT OF ESE STEERING FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING ONTO
THE DESERT FLOOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INITIALLY MODEST
MOISTURE...SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

..GUYER/GARNER.. 08/31/2009

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