SWODY1
SPC AC 311250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS
POSITIVE TILT ERN TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD AND SRN RCKYS RDG
BUILDS A BIT E INTO THE PLNS. THE ID UPR LOW MAY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS
IT EDGES SLOWLY E AHEAD OF DEEPENING SYSTEM OFF THE BC CST.
SLOWLY-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG THE GULF AND
S ATLANTIC CSTS. AND...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF EXPANSIVE
MS VLY SFC RDG WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS
OVER THE RCKYS.
...FL/SERN STATES...
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SC...EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ON E SIDE OF
LARGER SCALE ERN TROUGH...SHOULD CONTINUE NE OFF THE MD/VA CST BY
MIDDAY...LEAVING WEAKENING MID LVL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AL/GA BY
AFTN/EVE.
SCTD STG TO LOCALLY SVR TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ALONG THE SC/SRN
NC CST LATER THIS MORNING...WHERE HI PW VALUES AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT MAY YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF LOCALLY SVR WIND. FARTHER W...SFC
HEATING AND APPROACH OF ARKLATEX IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
STORMS ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST AND OVER FL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT AVAILABILITY OF RICH MOISTURE /PW TO 2
INCHES/ AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD YIELD A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF FL AND PERHAPS CSTL GA THIS AFTN.
...NRN/CNTRL RCKYS...
COOL AIR ALOFT /MINUS 12C AT 500 MB/ AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH ID UPR LOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS/BANDS OF
MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS OVER SW MT AND WRN/NRN WY LATER TODAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN PLACE...GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT
OF UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES...WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER E CNTRL/SE
MT INVOF LEE TROUGH. 500-1200 J/KG SBCAPE AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR
/AOB 30 KTS/ COULD SUPPORT SOME STG/LOCALLY SVR STORMS WITH
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
FARTHER S...ISOLD TO POSSIBLY SCTD TSTMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FROM ERN WY
THROUGH ERN CO INTO E CNTRL NM. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...A
FEW OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVE COULD YIELD SVR
HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. A COUPLE SUPERCELLS MAY FORM WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...SUCH AS NEAR THE DENVER CYCLONE. BUT
OVERALL SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL GIVEN MODEST
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RAPID INCREASE OF CIN WITH EWD EXTENT INTO
THE PLNS.
...SRN AZ...
SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF UPR RDG AND GRADUAL MOISTENING OVER REGION MAY
SUPPORT AN UPTURN IN STORM COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL/SE AZ RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. 15-20 KT ESELY MID LVL FLOW
OVER SE AZ MAY SUPPORT WWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS TOWARD/INTO THE LWR
DESERT...AND A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS...LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE RDG AND INITIALLY MODEST
MOISTURE...SVR PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED ATTM.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 08/31/2009
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