Thursday, May 21, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220105
SWODY1
SPC AC 220102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY
PROGRESSIVE/LOW-AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM INVOF CANADIAN BORDER...BROAD
CYCLONE OVER NERN GULF THAT ALSO EXTENDS TO SFC...AND BROAD/DIFFUSE
AREA OF TROUGHING OVER SWRN CONUS AND NRN MEX. LATTER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LINGERING GEN TSTM POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...ACROSS BROAD SWATH FROM PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO
CENTRAL CO AND SWD TO MEX BORDERLANDS OF AZ/NM. EXPECT GRADUAL
DIMINISHMENT OF THUNDER COVERAGE AS COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW AND DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZES AIR MASS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NWWD THROUGH
AN AREA ROUGHLY EQUIDISTANT BETWEEN EYW-MSY.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LM SWWD ACROSS SERN
IA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OR DRIFTING SWD IN SEGMENTS FROM SWRN
IA ACROSS SERN NEB...NWRN TO EXTREME W-CENTRAL KS TO EXTREME SERN
CO. FRONT THEN INTERSECTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SERN CO. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS NERN NM BETWEEN
RTN-LVS.

...COASTAL FL...
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS FCST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...WHILE DRIFTING STEADILY FARTHER AWAY FROM PENINSULAR W
COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...RELATED ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS
SHOULD RETREAT FARTHER OFFSHORE FROM W COAST...LEADING TO WEAKENING
OF BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
MEANWHILE...NRN/NERN FRINGES OF FAVORABLE WINDS ARE FCST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE MOST OF ERN GULF COAST REGION...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ALONG PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE DURING LAST FEW
HOURS OF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BULK OF SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE OVER GULF...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE OVER LAND. BY 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME...SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL
BE VERY WEAK -- LESS THAN 300 J/KG OVER LAND -- INDICATING ANY
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND CONDITIONAL...WITH
UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES TOO SMALL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
QUASI-LINEAR MCS...LOCATED N OF FRONTAL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...IS
PROPAGATING GENERALLY NWD INTO ZONE OF LOWER SFC TEMPS BUT GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. INITIALLY MRGL SVR POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SVR
PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 PERCENT OVER THIS
REGION. COMBINATION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...SEASONALLY
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT -- RELATED TO ADVECTIONS FROM CONVECTIVELY
OVERTURNED QUASI-MONSOONAL REGIME OVER SWRN CONUS -- AND DIABATIC
SFC COOLING WILL FURTHER REDUCE BUOYANCY THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.

..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2009

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KOAX [220058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 220058
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
758 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM HAIL 2 E CENTER 42.61N 97.84W
05/21/2009 E0.88 INCH KNOX NE PUBLIC

NICKEL AND SMALLER COVERED THE GROUND.


&&

$$

DFOBERT

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KPUB [212300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 212300
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
500 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM FLOOD 11 N TRINIDAD 37.33N 104.52W
05/21/2009 LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

I-25 FRONTAGE ROADS FLOODED...LAS ANIMAS COUNTY ROAD 42
FLOODED.


&&

$$

EPETERSE

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KPUB [212138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 212138
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE LA VETA 37.60N 104.98W
05/21/2009 M2.20 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN STILL OCCURRING


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0854

ACUS11 KWNS 212012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212011
NMZ000-COZ000-212115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM/SERN CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 212011Z - 212115Z

HEAVY RAINFALL IN NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS WILL BE A THREAT OVER
NERN NM AND SERN CO.

DIURNAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. STORMS HAVE SHOWN MODEST ORGANIZATION
DUE TO 25 TO 30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOW VALUES NEAR 0.75 INCHES...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND FAVORABLY
ORIENTED TERRAIN. CONVERGENCE WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NERN NM AND SERN CO AS A FRONT REMAINS
STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND AS BROAD NELY/ELY FLOW AROUND A LARGER
SCALE UPPER LOW FOCUS STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEARLY
STATIONARY STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
HAIL...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE.

..HURLBUT.. 05/21/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36870330 36370411 36230510 36360579 36930592 37490548
37720504 37560402 36870330

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211956
SWODY1
SPC AC 211953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OVER THE AREA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDING NNWWD FROM THE EVERGLADES TOWARDS THE TBW AREA HAS BECOME
PRIMARY AXIS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
APPEARS STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS...AS WELL AS
BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADOES ALONG THIS FEATURE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

...SERN CO INTO WRN KS...
A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INVOF STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER FAR SERN CO/NERN NM GIVEN INCREASED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST INSTABILITY. SOME HAIL AND
POTENTIAL FOR A MICROBURST REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FARTHER NW...NARROW LINE OF
CU/TCU IS EVIDENT ALONG LEADING SURFACE TROUGH FROM FAR SERN CO INTO
N-CENTRAL KS AT 19Z. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD FOSTER POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG DOWNBURST AND HAVE ADDED
CONDITIONAL LOW WIND PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY.

..EVANS.. 05/21/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL CANADIAN PROVINCES
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC EWD AS WELL. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WWD AWAY FROM THE FL PENINSULA.
CONVERGENT BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO BRIEF
ROTATION. IN THE SOUTHWEST...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT NEWD
WITH PULSE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING A BROAD AREA.

...FLORIDA...
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
WATERSPOUTS AND BRIEFLY ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IN A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MOST NOTABLE AREA OF CONVERGENCE AS OF 15Z
EXTENDS JUST OFFSHORE OF MIAMI NWWD TOWARDS TAMPA...AND MAY BE
REINFORCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY STORM
NEAR PALM BEACH. EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT TO BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AS WEAK FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
WATERSPOUTS. FARTHER N...A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENT BANDS WILL ROTATE NWD AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH
ENHANCED 0-3 KM DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW STORMS
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A CONCERN BY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STORMS ENCOUNTER
ENHANCED BUOYANCY OF THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND/OR AS LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AS BANDS DRIFT NWD.

...SOUTHWEST...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES DRIFTING NEWD AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL INFLUENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL PULSE STORMS ACROSS A BROAD
AREA. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THE SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLD STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND GIVEN A
SUSTAINED UPDRAFT.

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KTBW [211802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 211802
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
201 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N SEBRING 27.52N 81.45W
05/20/2009 HIGHLANDS FL EMERGENCY MNGR

2 MOBILE HOMES BADLY DAMAGED...OTHERS SUFFERED MINOR
DAMAGE. TREES DOWN IN ORANGE GROVE.


&&

$$

JILLSON

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KLBF [211739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 211739
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0746 PM TSTM WND GST 15 N TRYON 41.78N 100.94W
05/20/2009 M65.00 MPH HOOKER NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JRS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211717
SWODY2
SPC AC 211715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WILL DRIFT
WNWWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. RAINBANDS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY
NIGHT SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WHICH COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA.

IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN WY
AND WRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN WRN NEB SHOW
RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. IF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ATTM...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.

..BROYLES.. 05/21/2009

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KBGM [211712]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 211712
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
111 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE HARFORD 41.79N 75.68W
05/16/2009 SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

MODULAR FIELD OFFICE DESTROYED AT TRUCK STOP AT EXIT 217
HIGHWAY 81.


&&

$$

RAM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211610
SWODY1
SPC AC 211607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL CANADIAN PROVINCES
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC EWD AS WELL. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WWD AWAY FROM THE FL PENINSULA.
CONVERGENT BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO BRIEF
ROTATION. IN THE SOUTHWEST...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT NEWD
WITH PULSE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING A BROAD AREA.

...FLORIDA...
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
WATERSPOUTS AND BRIEFLY ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS IN A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MOST NOTABLE AREA OF CONVERGENCE AS OF 15Z
EXTENDS JUST OFFSHORE OF MIAMI NWWD TOWARDS TAMPA...AND MAY BE
REINFORCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY STORM
NEAR PALM BEACH. EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT TO BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AS WEAK FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
WATERSPOUTS. FARTHER N...A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENT BANDS WILL ROTATE NWD AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH
ENHANCED 0-3 KM DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW STORMS
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A CONCERN BY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND STORMS ENCOUNTER
ENHANCED BUOYANCY OF THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT AND/OR AS LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AS BANDS DRIFT NWD.

...SOUTHWEST...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES DRIFTING NEWD AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL INFLUENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL PULSE STORMS ACROSS A BROAD
AREA. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD TEMPER THE SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH ISOLD STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND GIVEN A
SUSTAINED UPDRAFT.

..HURLBUT/EVANS.. 05/21/2009

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KJAX [211508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 211508
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1107 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE DOCTORS INLET 30.10N 81.74W
05/21/2009 M14.12 INCH CLAY FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE HAS RECEIVED 14.12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT.


&&

$$

ECZ

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KLBF [211506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 211506
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1006 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 PM TSTM WND GST 15 N TRYON 41.78N 100.94W
05/20/2009 M65.00 MPH HOOKER NE TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JRS

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KJAX [211445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 211445
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1045 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 N UNF 30.32N 81.51W
05/21/2009 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

DAMAGE TO HANGER AT CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. WIND GUST
WAS ESTIMATED AROUND 30 MPH.


&&

$$

ECZ

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KJAX [211307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 211307
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
907 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
05/21/2009 M14.98 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE AMATEUR RADIO EMERGENCY SERVICE-REACT HAS RECEIVED
14.96 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
05/21/2009 M17.80 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

THE CITY OF PALM COAST HAS RECEIVED 17.80 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN BUNNELL 29.47N 81.26W
05/21/2009 M20.30 INCH FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

FLAGLER COUNTY EOC HAS RECEIVED 20.30 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
THIS EVENT.


&&

$$

MTRABERT

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KJAX [211250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 211250
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
850 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM FLOOD DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE 30.33N 81.66W
05/21/2009 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL STREETS NEAR DOWNTOWN ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
CURRENTLY CLOSED ARE THE 800 TO 900 BLOCK OF MARKET
STREET...THE 800 TO 900 BLOCK OF HUBBARD STREET AND THE
000 TO 100 BLOCK OF ORANGE STREET. ALSO PORTIONS OF LEM
TURNER ROAD BETWEEN I-295 AND TERRELL ROAD ARE CLOSED.


&&

$$

MTRABERT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211240
SWODY1
SPC AC 211237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR NRN TIER OF STATES AND SERN
CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPR RIDGE EDGES SLOWLY E FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC CST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. FARTHER S...A PAIR OF WEAK UPR
CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT GENERALLY E ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS
WEAK UPR LOW RETROGRESSES SLOWLY NW ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS AND SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC...FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LVLS. A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS DEEP S/SELY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED E OF RETROGRESSING UPR LOW.

...CNTRL FL...
ERN GULF UPR LOW APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP ATTM DOES NOT SUGGEST PRESENCE OF
UPSTREAM UPR LVL SPEED MAXIMA THAT COULD ENHANCE UPR LVL CIRCULATION
AS OCCURRED LATE TUE/EARLY WED. THUS...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS IT WOBBLES SLOWLY WNW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH UPR LVL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...LOW LVL FLOW OVER FL WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY STRONG DUE TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
ERN GULF SFC LOW AND WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM WIND
PROFILES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING
THE PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF LOW-LVL VEERING PROFILES AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
WEAK LOW LVL ROTATION AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION. BUT
OVERALL TORNADO RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF SVR
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

BUOYANCY AND LOW LVL SHEAR MIGHT INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE AL CST AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE FEATURES
PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF LATE-PERIOD SVR PROBABILITIES IN THAT
REGION.

...SW U.S. TO CNTRL PLNS...
SCTD DIURNAL STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SW
U.S...WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH. COMPARATIVELY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK/VARIABLE UPR FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SVR WIND
THREAT VERY ISOLD.

FARTHER NE...MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO WILL BE SEASONABLY WEAK OVER
THE CNTRL PLNS. THUS...WHILE A FEW AFTN/EVE STORMS WILL FORM
ALONG/BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM ERN CO INTO NEB/KS...DEEP WIND FIELD
AND MOISTURE/BUOYANCY LIKELY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR SVR.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/21/2009

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KJAX [211236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 211236
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
836 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0833 AM FLOOD MIDDLEBURG 30.05N 81.90W
05/21/2009 CLAY FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

PER LOCAL MEDIA...CLAY COUNTY SHERRIFS OFFICE REPORTED A
PORTION OF ALLIE MURRAY ROAD IN MIDDLEBURG WAS SWEPT AWAY
BY FLOOD WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

$$

ECZ

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KKEY [211227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 211227
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
827 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
05/21/2009 M39 MPH GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION

A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUST OF 34 KTS...OR 39 MPH...WAS
RECORDED BY THE C-MAN STATION ON PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT...AT
705 AM EDT. THIS GUST WAS FROM A PASSING HEAVY
SHOWER...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE DISTANT NORTHWEST. WINDS AT THE 8 AM OBSERVATION WERE
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 16 KTS...OR 18 MPH.


&&

$$

ROSS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210857
SWOD48
SPC AC 210856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A
BLOCKY/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PRIMARY
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48.
NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AND NO 30%
DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED.

A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HAVE FINALLY RETURNED INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL STATES BY DAY 4/SUNDAY. THE REMNANT LOW EMANATING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AROUND DAY 4/SUNDAY...AND/OR A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST DAYS 5-6
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR TSTMS WITH SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BARRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WIND FIELDS WITH THE REMNANT GULF LOW ACROSS
THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...NOTHING MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED OR PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH THE PREVALENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

..GUYER.. 05/21/2009

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KSLC [210849]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 210849
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
249 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0831 PM TSTM WND GST MILFORD 38.39N 113.01W
05/20/2009 M62 MPH BEAVER UT ASOS


&&

$$

MPS

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KMFL [210747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 210747
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
347 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 AM TSTM WND GST VIRGINIA KEY 25.75N 80.16W
05/21/2009 M52 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET


&&

$$

DG

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210733
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST STATES TO ARKLATEX/EASTERN OK AND LOWER MO VALLEY...
IT SEEMS LIKELY THE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON SATURDAY. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS LOW INLAND...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL
BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WOULD LIKELY LIMIT
SEVERE/SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN CONCERT WITH THE LOW.

ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...POCKETS OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LOW/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT RATHER
EPISODIC/SCATTERED IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AT
LEAST SOME DOWNBURST/PERHAPS PULSE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ARKLATEX INTO EASTERN OK/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY.

GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AND THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/SPORADIC
NATURE OF THE RISK...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME...AS SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DELINEATE A
PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ANY MODEST SEVERE RISK.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SEMI-ORGANIZED/BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE VIA AN EASTWARD-EXITING SURFACE HIGH AND POTENTIAL FOR
LATER DAY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AND A SEEMINGLY
MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL PRECLUDES SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 05/21/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210600
SWODY2
SPC AC 210558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE FLUCTUATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING RATHER LIMITED/ISOLATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. SCATTERED TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AMIDST A GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX VIA A GULF OF MEXICO
LOW...WITH OTHER TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES.

...GULF COAST STATES TO ARKLATEX/MIDWEST...
AS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAKE A NORTHWARD SHIFT TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY NEARING THE LA/MS/AL COAST LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS /AROUND 25-30 KT PER
00Z GFS AND EARLIER 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE -- BUT STRONGER PER THE 00Z
NAM/ SHOULD PERSIST/POTENTIALLY INCREASE ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF
COAST. LOW-PERIPHERAL HEATING AND A GRADUALLY MOISTENING AIRMASS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE WESTWARD MOVING
CLUSTERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOULD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY /ALBEIT
MARGINAL/ DEVELOP...AND ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS PROVE
STRONGER...A ROGUE TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW AND PERCEIVED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT
PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

FARTHER NORTH...WITH A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE...OTHER TSTMS /PERHAPS A FEW
PULSE-TYPE STRONG-SEVERE/ SHOULD DIURNALLY DEVELOP AS FAR
NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE ARKLATEX/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AS LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS NORTHWARD...WEAK LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POTENTIALLY AIDED BY ONE
OR MORE MINOR/CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. MARGINAL
BUOYANCY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTMS
/HAIL MAIN THREAT/ MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN NEB
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LOW...WEAK MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /GENERALLY 10-20 KT/...AND A
RESIDUALLY COOL AIRMASS /ALBEIT WARMING INTO FRIDAY/ SHOULD
GENERALLY LIMIT A SEVERE RISK.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS TO SOUTHWEST TX...
SLOW MOVING/COOL UPPER LOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER AZ ON FRIDAY.
MODEST HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN AN AFTERNOON
UPSWING OF TSTMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO SOUTHWEST TX. A FEW OF
THESE TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

..GUYER.. 05/21/2009

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KKEY [210553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KKEY 210553
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
153 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
05/21/2009 M46.00 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 40
KNOTS...OR 46 MPH AT 1202 AM EDT.

1206 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MARATHON 24.71N 81.08W
05/21/2009 M51.00 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL ASOS

A SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY GUST OF 44 KTS...OR 51 MPH...WAS
RECORDED AT THE ASOS AT MARATHON AIRPORT.


&&

$$

FUTTERMAN

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KKEY [210544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 210544
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
143 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
05/21/2009 M46.00 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 40
KNOTS...OR 46 MPH AT 1202 AM EDT.

1206 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MARATHON 24.71N 81.08W
05/21/2009 M50.00 MPH MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL ASOS

A SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY GUST OF 44 KTS...OR 50 MPH...WAS
RECORDED AT THE ASOS AT MARATHON AIRPORT.


&&

$$

AFUTTERM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210537
SWODY1
SPC AC 210534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS MB/NRN ONT/LS AND NRN MN...BROAD
AND DIFFUSE AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT OVER SWRN CONUS...AND
DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY NWWD ACROSS
E-CENTRAL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO. SFC COLD FRONT -- TRAILING FROM NRN
STREAM PERTURBATION -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NRN IL...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NRN
MO...CENTRAL/SWRN KS AND NERN NM.

DEEP-LAYER PATTERN JUXTAPOSITION IS REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY MOISTURE
OVER GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT WITH MID/LATE SUMMER MONSOONAL
SETUP FROM SWRN CONUS THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES...ALL LOCATED S OF
FAVORABLE NRN STREAM FLOW BELT ALOFT. NET RESULT -- SVR POTENTIAL
TOO MARGINAL...CONDITIONAL AND DISORGANIZED FOR PROBABILITIES
ANYWHERE OVER CONUS...VERY UNUSUAL FOR MID-LATE MAY.

...ERN GULF COAST TO FL PENINSULA...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS FL
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/WRN PORTIONS GIVEN STRENGTH/DEPTH OF
ELYS AND PROBABLE DEEP INLAND PENETRATION/DIFFUSION OF DIURNAL
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES AND BUOYANCY ASSOCIATED WITH GULF LOW SHOULD REMAIN
OVER WATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY DURING LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WARM DIABATIC INFLUENCE IS
STRONGEST OVER LAND. LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH
TIME OVER W COAST OF PENINSULA...AND DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF
PERIOD...INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN PANHANDLE TO AL
COAST. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF CYCLONE PRECLUDE INTRODUCING
LATE-PERIOD SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM FOR ERN GULF COAST.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW VALUES ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES...AND PORTIONS GREAT BASIN AND SWRN DESERT AREAS.
HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF KINEMATIC SUPPORT PRECLUDE
MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED/SPORADIC POTENTIAL FOR A STG-SVR DOWNDRAFT.
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT -- EMANATING FROM QUASI-MONSOONAL SWRN REGIME
-- WILL EXTEND NEWD OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL.
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND SFC FRONTAL
ZONE OVER CENTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER WINDS...AND
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR SVR FCST.

..EDWARDS/SCHNEIDER.. 05/21/2009

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KOAX [210453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 210453
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1147 PM HAIL VERDIGRE 42.60N 98.04W
05/20/2009 E0.75 INCH KNOX NE LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

CZAPOTOC

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