SWODY1
SPC AC 210534
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS MB/NRN ONT/LS AND NRN MN...BROAD
AND DIFFUSE AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT OVER SWRN CONUS...AND
DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY NWWD ACROSS
E-CENTRAL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO. SFC COLD FRONT -- TRAILING FROM NRN
STREAM PERTURBATION -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NRN IL...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NRN
MO...CENTRAL/SWRN KS AND NERN NM.
DEEP-LAYER PATTERN JUXTAPOSITION IS REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY MOISTURE
OVER GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT WITH MID/LATE SUMMER MONSOONAL
SETUP FROM SWRN CONUS THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES...ALL LOCATED S OF
FAVORABLE NRN STREAM FLOW BELT ALOFT. NET RESULT -- SVR POTENTIAL
TOO MARGINAL...CONDITIONAL AND DISORGANIZED FOR PROBABILITIES
ANYWHERE OVER CONUS...VERY UNUSUAL FOR MID-LATE MAY.
...ERN GULF COAST TO FL PENINSULA...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS FL
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/WRN PORTIONS GIVEN STRENGTH/DEPTH OF
ELYS AND PROBABLE DEEP INLAND PENETRATION/DIFFUSION OF DIURNAL
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES AND BUOYANCY ASSOCIATED WITH GULF LOW SHOULD REMAIN
OVER WATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY DURING LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WARM DIABATIC INFLUENCE IS
STRONGEST OVER LAND. LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH
TIME OVER W COAST OF PENINSULA...AND DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF
PERIOD...INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN PANHANDLE TO AL
COAST. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF CYCLONE PRECLUDE INTRODUCING
LATE-PERIOD SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM FOR ERN GULF COAST.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW VALUES ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES...AND PORTIONS GREAT BASIN AND SWRN DESERT AREAS.
HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF KINEMATIC SUPPORT PRECLUDE
MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED/SPORADIC POTENTIAL FOR A STG-SVR DOWNDRAFT.
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT -- EMANATING FROM QUASI-MONSOONAL SWRN REGIME
-- WILL EXTEND NEWD OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL.
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND SFC FRONTAL
ZONE OVER CENTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER WINDS...AND
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR SVR FCST.
..EDWARDS/SCHNEIDER.. 05/21/2009
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