KGLD [110054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 110054
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
654 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 22 SSW STRATTON 39.01N 102.76W
10/10/2013 CHEYENNE CO PUBLIC

TREE KNOCKED DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. RELAYED VIA
TWITTER.


&&

$$

JJM

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KDDC [110051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 110051
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
751 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0733 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE JOHNSON CITY 37.58N 101.72W
10/10/2013 M63.00 MPH STANTON KS AWOS


&&

$$

GERARD

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KCYS [110050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 110050
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
650 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 PM SNOW 10 NW CENTENNIAL 41.40N 106.25W
10/10/2013 E1.5 INCH CARBON WY PUBLIC

ROADS ARE VERY SLICK.


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KGLD [110040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 110040
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
640 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 12 S LAIRD 39.91N 102.10W
10/10/2013 E1.00 INCH YUMA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY DIME TO NICKEL SIZE BUT A FEW WERE QUARTER SIZE.
LASTED FOR ONE MINUTE.


&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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KDDC [110039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 110039
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S MANTER 37.49N 101.89W
10/10/2013 E65.00 MPH STANTON KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

GERARD

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KLBF [110036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 110036
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
736 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 PM TSTM WND GST LAKESIDE 42.06N 102.46W
10/10/2013 E65 MPH SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

JGOMEZ

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KGLD [110035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 110035
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
635 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 PM HAIL 10 S SHARON SPRINGS 38.75N 101.75W
10/10/2013 E1.00 INCH WALLACE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JJM

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KGJT [110031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 110031
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
631 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 NW MAESER 40.56N 109.69W
10/10/2013 M1.00 INCH UINTAH UT TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301703

$$

DC

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KABQ [110030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 110030
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
629 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE DUNKEN 32.82N 105.18W
10/10/2013 M59 MPH CHAVES NM PARK/FOREST SRVC

DUNKEN RAWS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301422

$$

99

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KGLD [110025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 110025
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
625 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0622 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W RULETON 39.34N 101.90W
10/10/2013 SHERMAN KS NWS EMPLOYEE

TWO POWER POLES SNAPPED. EST 65 MPH WINDS. RELAYED VIA
SPOTTERNETWORK.


&&

$$

JJM

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KABQ [110017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 110017
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
616 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW OSCURO 33.45N 106.13W
10/10/2013 M59 MPH LINCOLN NM MESONET

WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE - PHILLIPS HILL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301421

$$

99

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KCYS [110014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 110014
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
614 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0612 PM HAIL ALLIANCE 42.10N 102.87W
10/10/2013 M0.25 INCH BOX BUTTE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KGLD [110013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 110013
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
613 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N WESKAN 38.87N 101.96W
10/10/2013 M78 MPH WALLACE KS STORM CHASER

SUSTAINED 60-65 MPH FOR 2 MIN. REPORT VIA SPOTTERNETWORK.



&&

$$

JJM

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KABQ [110011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 110011
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
611 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 E BOSQUE DEL APACHE 33.82N 106.65W
10/10/2013 M58 MPH SOCORRO NM MESONET

WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE - STALLION RUNWAY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301420

$$

99

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KGLD [110009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 110009
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
609 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 PM TSTM WND GST FIRSTVIEW 38.82N 102.53W
10/10/2013 M59 MPH CHEYENNE CO MESONET


&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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KGLD [110004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 110004
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
604 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST 5 S BURLINGTON 39.23N 102.27W
10/10/2013 M59 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS

VISIBILITY DROPPED TO 3 MILES.


&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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KGLD [110000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 110000
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM HAIL 1 SSW KANORADO 39.32N 102.05W
10/10/2013 M1.00 INCH SHERMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JJM

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KGJT [102359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 102359
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
558 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM SNOW 2 ESE HESPERUS 37.27N 108.00W
10/10/2013 M5.0 INCH LA PLATA CO PUBLIC

24 HR SNOWFALL AT 7426 FT


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301702

$$

DC

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KPUB [102351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 102351
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
551 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0534 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S SPRINGFIELD 37.28N 102.61W
10/10/2013 M63 MPH BACA CO ASOS


&&

$$

PJC

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KPUB [102350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 102350
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
550 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W LAMAR 38.07N 102.69W
10/10/2013 E60 MPH PROWERS CO ASOS


&&

$$

PJC

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KAMA [102340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 102340
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
640 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE KENTON 36.83N 102.88W
10/10/2013 M58 MPH CIMARRON OK MESONET

OKLAHOMA MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300839

$$

FENNER

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KAMA [102339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 102339
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE KENTON 36.83N 102.88W
10/10/2013 M67 MPH CIMARRON OK MESONET

OKLAHOMA MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300838

$$

FENNER

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KCYS [102337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 102337
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
537 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 3 S FEDERAL 41.23N 105.10W
10/10/2013 M0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KAMA [102337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 102337
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE KENTON 36.83N 102.88W
10/10/2013 M65 MPH CIMARRON OK MESONET

OKLAHOMA MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300837

$$

FENNER

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KAMA [102332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 102332
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW DALHART 36.03N 102.55W
10/10/2013 M63 MPH HARTLEY TX ASOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300836

$$

FENNER

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KPUB [102328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 102328
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
528 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE WETMORE 38.21N 105.00W
10/10/2013 E61.00 MPH PUEBLO CO MESONET

0422 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNE LA JUNTA 38.05N 103.51W
10/10/2013 M68.00 MPH OTERO CO ASOS

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE LA JUNTA 38.05N 103.51W
10/10/2013 M60.00 MPH OTERO CO ASOS

0309 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE HOEHNE 37.26N 104.34W
10/10/2013 M67.00 MPH LAS ANIMAS CO ASOS

TRINIDAD ASOS.

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S SPRINGFIELD 37.28N 102.61W
10/10/2013 M66.00 MPH BACA CO ASOS


&&

$$

PJC

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KLWX [102321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 102321
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
721 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 PM COASTAL FLOOD POINT LOOKOUT 38.04N 76.32W
10/10/2013 ST. MARYS MD TRAINED SPOTTER

DOCKS WERE REPORTED UNDER WATER AT THE POINT LOOKOUT
MARINA.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1300809

$$

BJL

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KGJT [102321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 102321
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
521 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN GATEWAY 38.68N 108.97W
10/10/2013 M0.86 INCH MESA CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301701

$$

DC

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KGJT [102306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 102306
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
506 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 PM SNOW DURANGO 37.27N 107.88W
10/10/2013 E1.0 INCH LA PLATA CO EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301700

$$

JAD

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KCYS [102304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 102304
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
504 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/10/2013 E0.25 INCH ALBANY WY PUBLIC


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KGJT [102258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 102258
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
458 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM SNOW 5 WSW PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.24N 107.10W
10/10/2013 E3.0 INCH ARCHULETA CO PUBLIC

SNOWFALL SINCE 12 NOON


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301699

$$

DC

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KABQ [102247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 102247
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
447 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0433 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE CLAYTON 36.46N 103.14W
10/10/2013 M59 MPH UNION NM ASOS

KCAO ASOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301419

$$

99

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KABQ [102246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 102246
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 ENE CLAYTON 36.46N 103.14W
10/10/2013 M46 MPH UNION NM ASOS

KCAO ASOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301418

$$

99

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KGJT [102245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 102245
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
445 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HEAVY RAIN CASTLE VALLEY 38.63N 109.40W
10/10/2013 M0.52 INCH GRAND UT PUBLIC

24 HR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301698

$$

DC

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KABQ [102243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 102243
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
443 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0341 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE CLINES CORNERS 35.00N 105.66W
10/10/2013 M60 MPH TORRANCE NM ASOS

KCQC ASOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301417

$$

99

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 545

WWUS20 KWNS 102242
SEL5
SPC WW 102242
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-110500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 545 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
GUYMON OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND A SQUALL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS
SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER BY 00Z. GIVEN STRONG
WIND PROFILES AND RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY/ MOISTURE...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 22040.


...THOMPSON

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KKEY [102242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 102242
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
642 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 PM WATER SPOUT 1 N MARATHON 24.73N 81.08W
10/10/2013 GMZ032 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER CALLED WITH REPORT OF A WATERSPOUT ON THE
GULFSIDE WATERS NORTH OF MARATHON...VACA KEY.

0556 PM WATER SPOUT 1 N MARATHON 24.73N 81.08W
10/10/2013 GMZ032 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORT...2ND REPORT...OF THE WATERSPOUT NORTH OF
MARATHON...VACA KEY. WATERSPOUT TERMED SIGNIFICANT BY
SPOTTER WITH A CLEARLY VISIBLE SPRAY RING. MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.


&&

$$

MPARKE

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KPUB [102233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 102233
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNE LA JUNTA 38.05N 103.51W
10/10/2013 M68 MPH OTERO CO ASOS


&&

$$

PJC

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KGLD [102210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 102210
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
409 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE OAKLEY 39.11N 100.80W
10/10/2013 M50 MPH GOVE KS MESONET

KS DOT ROAD WEATHER STATION


&&

$$

JJM

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KGLD [102206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 102206
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GOODLAND 39.35N 101.71W
10/10/2013 M53 MPH SHERMAN KS ASOS


&&

$$

JJM

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KPUB [102200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 102200
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0309 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE HOEHNE 37.26N 104.34W
10/10/2013 M67 MPH LAS ANIMAS CO ASOS

TRINIDAD ASOS.


&&

$$

PJC

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KPUB [102157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 102157
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE LA JUNTA 38.05N 103.51W
10/10/2013 M60.00 MPH OTERO CO ASOS

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S SPRINGFIELD 37.28N 102.61W
10/10/2013 M66.00 MPH BACA CO ASOS


&&

$$

PJC

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KCYS [102157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 102157
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
357 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM HAIL 10 N CHEYENNE 41.29N 104.79W
10/10/2013 M0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KGLD [102153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 102153
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
353 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E KIRK 39.62N 102.49W
10/10/2013 M51 MPH YUMA CO MESONET


&&

$$

JJM

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KGLD [102150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 102150
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
350 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SEIBERT 39.30N 102.87W
10/10/2013 M57 MPH KIT CARSON CO MESONET

CDOT ROAD WEATHER STATION


&&

$$

JJM

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KGJT [102143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 102143
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM SNOW OURAY 38.03N 107.67W
10/10/2013 M3.0 INCH OURAY CO CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL SINCE 10 AM


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301697

$$

DC

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KPUB [102127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 102127
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNE LA JUNTA 38.05N 103.51W
10/10/2013 M60 MPH OTERO CO ASOS


&&

$$

PJC

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KGLD [102125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 102125
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
324 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BURLINGTON 39.31N 102.27W
10/10/2013 M53.00 MPH KIT CARSON CO ASOS


&&

$$

JJM

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KABQ [102124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 102124
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
324 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SSE MAGDALENA 33.98N 107.19W
10/10/2013 M83 MPH SOCORRO NM MESONET

ELEVATION 10634. MAGDALENA RIDGE OBSERVATORY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301416

$$

44

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KGJT [102107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 102107
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
307 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0301 PM SNOW 5 WSW PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.24N 107.10W
10/10/2013 E2.0 INCH ARCHULETA CO PUBLIC

2 INCHES NEW SNOW SINCE 12 NOON


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301696

$$

DC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1959

ACUS11 KWNS 102006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102005
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102005Z - 102230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OFF
THE MOUNTAINS OF N-CNTRL NM ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS OVER WHEN
CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN INTO SUBSTANTIAL LIGHTNING-PRODUCING STORMS
AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A QLCS...WHICH MAY AWAIT INTERACTION WITH
GREATER BUOYANCY FARTHER E. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LOBE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS HAS AIDED IN A
BELT OF SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS N-CNTRL NM.
DESPITE MEAGER BUOYANCY...A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH
VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES /CHARACTERIZED BY 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KT PER ABQ VWP DATA/ WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS. EVEN
WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT MAY YIELD
OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THE
SURGE OF ASCENT INTERSECTS WITH MODEST BUT COMPARATIVELY HIGHER DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S E OF THE 102ND MERIDIAN AFTER
00Z.

..GRAMS/HART.. 10/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 39150465 40510336 40720224 40470133 39520105 38770110
36660180 35810264 35230371 35170464 35440501 35780527
39150465

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KPUB [102002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 102002
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
202 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S SPRINGFIELD 37.28N 102.61W
10/10/2013 M66 MPH BACA CO ASOS


&&

$$

PJC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 102002
SWODY1
SPC AC 102000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...20Z UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECAST REASONING /SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW/...ALTHOUGH SOME SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN ACCORDANCE
WITH SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN SCENARIO IS FOR A
STRONG BAND/LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS TO STEADILY DEVELOP/INCREASE
BY EARLY EVENING /ROUGHLY 01Z-02Z/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
MORE CONSEQUENTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A STEADILY STRENGTHENING
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 10/10/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013/

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS AZ. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
SOUTHEAST CO BY EVENING...THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEB BY FRI
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND TURBULENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DEEP PBL AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN
KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 00Z.

A FEW DISCRETE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN KS/TX PANHANDLE PRIOR TO SUNSET WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH A HIGH-BASED
LP SUPERCELL POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS.
MOST MESOSCALE MODELS AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW LINE OF
STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. LIMITED CAPE WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE RISK OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...STRONG/SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE LINE ARE LIKELY.

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KABQ [101945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 101945
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
145 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE LA CIENEGA 35.60N 106.11W
10/10/2013 M59 MPH SANTA FE NM ASOS

KSAF ASOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301413

$$

GUYER

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KGJT [101930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101930
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
130 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM SNOW 5 WSW PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.24N 107.10W
10/10/2013 E1.0 INCH ARCHULETA CO PUBLIC

SNOWFALL SINCE 12 NOON


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301695

$$

DC

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KABQ [101905]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 101905
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
105 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW FORT STANTON 33.47N 105.54W
10/10/2013 M62 MPH LINCOLN NM AWOS

KSRR AWOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301412

$$

GUYER

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KABQ [101904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 101904
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
102 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S ALBUQUERQUE 35.04N 106.62W
10/10/2013 M60 MPH BERNALILLO NM ASOS

KABQ ASOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301411

$$

GUYER

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KGJT [101834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101834
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1234 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0917 AM SNOW 8 NNW CEDAREDGE 39.01N 107.98W
10/10/2013 E4.0 INCH DELTA CO PUBLIC

NEAR GRAND MESA LODGE...STILL SNOWING


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301694

$$

TB

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KGJT [101825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101825
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1225 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1207 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW LAZEAR 38.84N 107.80W
10/10/2013 M0.55 INCH DELTA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301693

$$

DC

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KGJT [101823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101823
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1222 PM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM HEAVY RAIN 12 ENE COLUMBINE PASS 38.46N 108.16W
10/10/2013 M0.75 INCH MONTROSE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301692

$$

DC

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KCHS [101819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 101819
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
218 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1254 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
10/10/2013 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.08 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300920

$$

BDC

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KKEY [101818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 101818
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
218 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0137 PM WATER SPOUT 1 S KEY WEST 24.55N 81.78W
10/10/2013 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED A
WATERSPOUT ONE MILE SOUTH OF KEY WEST WITH A DURATION OF
ONE MINUTE. WATERSPOUT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUMULUS
CLOUD LINE.


&&

$$

MPARKE

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KABQ [101748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 101748
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW SANDIA PARK 35.21N 106.45W
10/10/2013 M72 MPH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC

TOP OF SANDIA PEAK TRAM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301410

$$

44

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KGJT [101745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101745
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1058 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW OXFORD 37.16N 107.75W
10/10/2013 M46 MPH LA PLATA CO ASOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301691

$$

TB

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KGJT [101744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101744
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1144 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.29N 107.04W
10/10/2013 M51 MPH ARCHULETA CO AWOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301690

$$

TB

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KSGX [101744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 101744
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1044 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE DESCANSO 32.73N 116.58W
10/09/2013 M66.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE OBSERVER AT THE LOS PINOS LOOKOUT RECORDED A PEAK
WIND GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1408 PDT ON OCTOBER 9.


&&

$$

TSTALL

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KGJT [101730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101730
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1130 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1121 AM HEAVY RAIN RIDGWAY 38.16N 107.75W
10/10/2013 M0.50 INCH OURAY CO PUBLIC

RAINFALL SINCE 8AM...HEAVY SNOW NOW FALLING


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301689

$$

TB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS/MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE-TILT AND BEGIN TO
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEB TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...WITH AN
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH THE FRONT ADVANCING IN A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD-FASHION
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

...DAKOTAS/MN...
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS/ADJACENT MIDDLE MO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
CONVEYOR. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY DAY CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION...THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODESTLY DESTABILIZE WITHIN
A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN...POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND NEARBY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL DAKOTAS.

WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER/SOME MIDDLE
50S F...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT AND
AFOREMENTIONED RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSOLATION/HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SBCAPE TO NEAR/ABOVE 500 J/KG BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILES/INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE LOW-TOPPED SURFACE-BASED STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO...SEVERE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING TSTM WINDS AS STORMS
INCREASE/MERGE INTO BANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...AN INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MID/LATE
EVENING SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR A DIMINISHED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE
RISK FRIDAY NIGHT.

...LOWER MO VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST UPPER
TROUGH...THE MAJORITY OF HEIGHT FALLS AND VERTICAL SHEAR /RELATIVE
TO THE WARM SECTOR/ WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY. REGARDLESS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN MO
VICINITIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A BIT LATER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
/MAINLY POST-SUNSET/ FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO OK/TX MAINLY AS A
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES A DRYLINE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/VERTICAL
SHEAR WOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS
INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO...FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND THE NOCTURNAL TENDENCY FOR MUCH OF THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL/LIKELIHOOD.

..GUYER.. 10/10/2013

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KVEF [101723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 101723
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1022 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW LAKE SABRINA 37.22N 118.62W
10/10/2013 M11.0 INCH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LAKE SABRINA BOAT RAMP MEASURED 11 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
745 AM ON 10/9 THROUGH 1 AM ON 10/10 AT AN ELEVATION OF
9130 FEET.

0100 AM SNOW 1 WNW ASPENDELL 37.24N 118.60W
10/10/2013 M7.0 INCH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER MEASURED 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN ASPENDELL SINCE 8
AM ON 10/9. THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT WAS 1.22 INCHES FOR
THIS EVENT.

0700 AM SNOW 4 WNW MT. CHARLESTON 36.30N 115.68W
10/10/2013 M7.0 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

LAS VEGAS SKI AND SNOWBOARD RESORT IN LEE CANYON MEASURED
7.0 INCHES OF SNOW AT 9200 FEET.

0700 AM SNOW HUALAPAI MOUNTAIN 35.10N 113.89W
10/10/2013 E0.5 INCH MOHAVE AZ PARK/FOREST SRVC

HUALAPAI MOUNTAIN ESTIMATED A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW FELL
THIS MORNING AT AN ELEVATION OF 6000 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW 2 SW MT. CHARLESTON 36.26N 115.64W
10/10/2013 M3.0 INCH CLARK NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MT CHARLESTON CO-OP STATION IN KYLE CANYON MEASURED 3.0
INCHES OF SNOW AT AN ELEVATION OF 7450 FEET.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101623
SWODY1
SPC AC 101621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS AZ. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
SOUTHEAST CO BY EVENING...THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEB BY FRI
MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND TURBULENT MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DEEP PBL AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN
KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 00Z.

A FEW DISCRETE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN KS/TX PANHANDLE PRIOR TO SUNSET WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH A HIGH-BASED
LP SUPERCELL POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING
COMMENCES.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS.
MOST MESOSCALE MODELS AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW LINE OF
STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. LIMITED CAPE WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE RISK OF HAIL.
HOWEVER...STRONG/SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE LINE ARE LIKELY.

..HART/COHEN.. 10/10/2013

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KHNX [101616]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 101616
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
916 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0907 AM SNOW CRABTREE MEADOW SNOTEL 36.56N 118.35W
10/10/2013 E8.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

0907 AM SNOW VOLCANIC KNOB SNOTEL 37.39N 118.90W
10/10/2013 E7.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

0907 AM SNOW AGNEW PASS SNOTEL 37.73N 119.14W
10/10/2013 E6.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

0907 AM SNOW BISHOP PASS SNOTEL 37.10N 118.56W
10/10/2013 E5.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

0907 AM SNOW TENAYA LAKE SNOTEL 37.84N 119.45W
10/10/2013 E4.0 INCH MARIPOSA CA MESONET

0907 AM SNOW CHAGOOPA PLATEAU SNOTEL 36.50N 118.44W
10/10/2013 E3.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

0907 AM SNOW HUNTINGTON LAKE SNOTEL 37.23N 119.22W
10/10/2013 E3.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

0907 AM SNOW CASA VIEJA MEADOWS SNOT 36.20N 118.27W
10/10/2013 E1.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

0907 AM SNOW CHILKOOT MEADOW SNOTEL 37.41N 119.49W
10/10/2013 E1.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

0800 AM SNOW LODGEPOLE 36.60N 118.73W
10/10/2013 M1.0 INCH TULARE CA CO-OP OBSERVER

0907 AM SNOW LOWER KIBBIE RIDGE SNOT 38.03N 119.88W
10/10/2013 E1.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA MESONET


&&

$$

SANGER

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KGJT [101531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101531
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
931 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SILVERTON 37.81N 107.66W
10/10/2013 M0.54 INCH SAN JUAN CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL...LIGHT SNOW FALLING AS OF 930 AM


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301688

$$

TB

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KHNX [101520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 101520
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
820 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM SNOW BEAR VALLEY SPRINGS 35.16N 118.62W
10/09/2013 E0.3 INCH KERN CA PUBLIC

MEASURED 0.32 INCHES LIQUID PRECIPTIATION FROM A SHOWER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

$$

DS

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KGJT [101515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101515
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
914 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0911 AM HEAVY RAIN CASTLE VALLEY 38.63N 109.40W
10/10/2013 M0.72 INCH GRAND UT PUBLIC

24 HOUR RAINFALL...WASHES RUNNING BUT NO FLOODING AT
THIS TIME


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301687

$$

TB

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KGJT [101511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101511
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
911 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN MONTICELLO 37.87N 109.35W
10/10/2013 M0.51 INCH SAN JUAN UT CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301686

$$

TB

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KGJT [101500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 101500
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
859 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE SKYWAY 39.09N 108.10W
10/10/2013 M0.56 INCH MESA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301685

$$

TB

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KVEF [101316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 101316
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
616 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW 4 WNW MT. CHARLESTON 36.30N 115.68W
10/10/2013 M5.0 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

AN AUTOMATED SENSOR AT THE LAS VEGAS SKI AND SNOWBOARD
RESORT MEASURED 5 INCHES OF SNOW AT AN ELEVATION OF 9360
FEET.


&&

$$

JA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101225
SWODY1
SPC AC 101223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST TO PERSIST. WHILE REMAINING
EMBEDDED WITHIN ERN MEAN RIDGE...MID-UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONE NOW
OVER VA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY THROUGH PERIOD. TROUGHING
WILL DOMINATE UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER WRN CONUS...ANCHORED BY CYCLONE
NOW PIVOTING EWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER AREA. HEIGHT FALLS ARE FCST
OVER NRN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER BC. AS THAT OCCURS...SWRN 500-MB CYCLONE WILL
TURN NEWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN. ACCOMPANYING TROUGH SHOULD REACH ERN
PORTIONS UT/AZ AND WRN WY BY 00Z. BY 12Z...CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMPACT AND REACH BLACK HILLS AREA...WITH VORTICITY LOBE
ARCHING SEWD THEN SWD ACROSS NEB/KS. WEAK TROUGHING WILL EXTEND
FROM THERE SWWD OVER NM.

11Z SFC CHART SHOWED WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO...WITH LEE TROUGHING
SSWWD ACROSS ERN NM. DRYLINE WAS DEVELOPING OVER TX/OK PANHANDLES
ALONG WRN FRINGE OF MRGL MOISTURE RETURN...BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED
SWD INVOF TX/NM BORDER TO LOWER PECOS VALLEY. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS NERN SD. LATTER BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...EXCEPT FOR SOME MESOSCALE RETREAT NWWD
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CYCLONE TRACK. LOW WILL DEEPEN WITH APCH OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MOVE TO NERN CO/SWRN NEB AREA BY 00Z...THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND MOVE TO SWRN SD BY 12Z. COLD FRONTOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED S OF SFC LOW...WITH FRONT REACHING SERN CO AND ERN NM BY
00Z. BY 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE OVERTAKEN MOST OF DRYLINE AND
SHOULD ARC FROM LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK/ERN TX
PANHANDLE AREA...AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS/TRANS-PECOS REGIONS.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS...IN CELLS THEN BANDS...ARE FCST
ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD
WITH PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS. LARGE HAIL ALSO IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MITIGATED BY
HIGH-BASED/HIGH-LCL NATURE OF ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE
CONVECTION...AND COLD-POOL-DRIVEN/FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF ONE OR MORE SQUALL LINES.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE INTENSE/SIGNIFICANT EVENT APPEARS TO
BE LACK OF RICH MOISTURE. HOWEVER...EXPECT STEEPENING DEEP-LAYER
LAPSE RATES RELATED FIRST TO DIABATIC AFTN HEATING THEN STG COOLING
ALOFT...LATTER BEING RELATED TO VIGOROUS DCVA AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC PROCESSES. MLCAPE 300-800 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH SFC DEW POINTS 40S/LOW 50S F ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE. DESPITE
DIABATIC SFC COOLING...SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS MAY BE
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
EVENING...AIDED BY FORCED ASCENT...AS REGIME TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS
KS/NEB. OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...SVR THREAT SHOULD BE SHORTER IN
DURATION AND...WITH SWD EXTENT...MORE ISOLATED/MRGL.

HIGH-RES/CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES EVENT MAY BE
BIMODAL. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON PRESENCE OF TWO
INITIALLY DISTINCT PROCESSES THAT MAY SUPPORT SVR CONVECTION IN
OVERLAPPING AREAS...
1. TSTMS NEAR DRYLINE...LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING...INITIALLY
DISCRETE THEN PERHAPS FORMING AT LEAST BKN LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
POSE LOWER WIND THREAT BUT POTENTIALLY GREATER HAIL RISK THAN NEXT
REGIME...
2. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER FORCING LEADING TO TSTM INITIATION OVER CO AND
NRN NM BEHIND DRYLINE...PERHAPS AS FAR W AS MTNS/FOOTHILLS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED...DEEPER AND
BETTER-ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO GREATER PW OVER ERN CO AND WRN
KS...DELIVERING DAMAGING OUTFLOW. WEAKENING AND S-N EROSION OF
CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT.

..EDWARDS/LEITMAN.. 10/10/2013

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100838
SWOD48
SPC AC 100838

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND MREF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY ON
SUN/D4...DEPICTING A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM N TX INTO
SD AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND
COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW STORMS.

THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ON MON/D5 WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
A LEADING SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CNTRL OR NRN PLAINS. GREATER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FROM N TX INTO KS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY FROM NEB INTO NWRN OK AT 00Z.
SEVERE HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BY
D5.

IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...WITH A COLD FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD
FAVOR LESS SEVERE STORMS AND MORE TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW...BUT EVEN
SO...INSTABILITY REMAINS A QUESTION DUE TO ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

PREDICTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER INTO THE D6-D8 PERIOD.

..JEWELL.. 10/10/2013

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KGJT [100723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 100723
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
123 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0857 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW CORTEZ 37.30N 108.63W
10/09/2013 M55 MPH MONTEZUMA CO ASOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301684

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [100705]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 100705
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
105 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1224 AM TSTM WND GST 3 NNE GRAND JUNCTION 39.12N 108.53W
10/10/2013 M51 MPH MESA CO ASOS

PEAK WIND GUST FROM CONVECTIVE SHOWER...NO LIGHTNING
OBSERVED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301683

$$

MALEKSA

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100659
SWODY3
SPC AC 100658

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI INTO SRN OK SAT AFTERNOON. S OF
THIS FRONT...LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST...BENEATH
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH WLY FLOW. THE SRN PLAINS PORTION OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY LATE ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

...NWRN TX INTO SERN OK AND NWRN AR...
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SRN OK/N TX
INTO WRN TX DURING DAY...THEN RETURNING NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
WRN TX OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING OVER ERN
OK INTO WRN AR EARLY SAT...AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WRN AND NWRN
TX...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE BOUNDARY. MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A CLUSTER
OF STORMS COULD BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING OVER WRN TX AS A SELY
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS THE WRN TROUGH AMPLIFIES.

..JEWELL.. 10/10/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100557
SWODY1
SPC AC 100555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EWD AND THEN
NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
ACROSS WRN SD BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. FARTHER E...A WEAK AND
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MEANDER
ERRATICALLY...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A LEE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST MOISTURE RETURN NWD
RESULTING IN SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S F. AN
APPROACHING SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LITTLE TO NO CAPPING
JUXTAPOSED WITH MLCAPE VALUES PEAKING NEAR 500-800 J/KG. THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AFTER PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS DEVELOPING INVOF THE LEE SFC TROUGH...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SFC
T-TD SPREADS NEAR 30 F...DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.

STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY VORTICITY
LOBE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS ERN CO DURING THE EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
MORE SCANT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AND THE
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE LINE
PROGRESSES EWD...AS DIURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING MLCINH WILL
RESULT IN TSTMS BECOMING ELEVATED WITH TIME.

..ROGERS/GARNER.. 10/10/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100538
SWODY2
SPC AC 100536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN SD...ERN ND...NWRN
MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ATTENDANT
STACKED SURFACE LOW. STRONG FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

TO THE S...A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY...FROM IA
SWWD INTO WRN OK...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN MORE
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO SRN AND ERN OK.

...NERN SD...ERN ND...NWRN MN...
AN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR SHOULD RAPIDLY
MOVE NWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND LIKELY ELEVATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN FURTHER DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND WIND PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH MUCAPE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG...THE HIGH RH ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
FORCING AND WIND PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW WEAK TORNADOES. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO FAVOR HAIL.

...NERN OK...ERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY FROM NERN OK INTO MO/IA. FORCING WILL BE WEAK...AND
MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL FORM AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT...BUT GIVEN A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE...A FEW CELLS COULD BE
SEVERE.

..JEWELL.. 10/10/2013

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