Thursday, November 15, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160047
SWODY1
SPC AC 160045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT. SOME FORCING AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE AS A FEW
HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE OCEAN. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR NON-CONVECTIVE RAIN OVER ERN NC AND VA
WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..JEWELL.. 11/16/2012

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KOUN [152320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOUN 152320
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
519 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL 7 S FORT SUPPLY 36.47N 99.57W
11/10/2012 E0.88 INCH WOODWARD OK BROADCAST MEDIA

0725 PM HAIL DURHAM 35.84N 99.92W
11/10/2012 E1.75 INCH ROGER MILLS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED. THREE TO
FOUR WINDOWS WERE DAMAGED BY THE HAIL.

0730 PM HAIL 8 NNE DURHAM 35.94N 99.85W
11/10/2012 E1.75 INCH ROGER MILLS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0730 PM HAIL CRAWFORD 35.83N 99.80W
11/10/2012 E1.00 INCH ROGER MILLS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0735 PM HAIL 10 NNE DURHAM 35.98N 99.86W
11/10/2012 E1.00 INCH ROGER MILLS OK PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0955 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW CHEROKEE 36.74N 98.36W
11/10/2012 M62.00 MPH ALFALFA OK MESONET


&&

$$

MA

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KEKA [152126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 152126
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
126 PM PST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1154 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 5 SSW EUREKA 40.74N 124.21W
11/15/2012 PZZ410 CA NWS EMPLOYEE

MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS IN THE KING SALMON AREA INCLUDING
PERCH ST. DOCKS PARTIALLY SUBMERGED AROUND HIGH TIDE.


&&

$$

RPA

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KEKA [152116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 152116
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
116 PM PST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1154 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 SSW FAIRHAVEN 40.77N 124.21W
11/15/2012 HUMBOLDT CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

HIGH TIDE PEAKED AT 8.81 FT MLLW AT THE NORTH SPIT IN
HUMBOLDT BAY.


&&

$$

RPA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151921
SWODY1
SPC AC 151919

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/15/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012/

...COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS SWD TO THE ERN FL PENINSULA...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TRACKING
EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A COMPACT LOBE OF ASCENT LEADING
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH
LITTLE /IF ANY/ DEEP CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. A
DECREASING LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE ASCENT IS PHASING WITH VERY MEAGER
INSTABILITY...AT MOST. AND...WITH THE 12Z MOREHEAD CITY NC SOUNDING
DEPICTING A NARROW-CAPE PROFILE WITH JUST OVER 100 J/KG OF CAPE FOR
A PARCEL LIFTED FROM AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL...LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
UNLIKELY AS THE VORT MAX TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.

FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP DRY AIR WITH A HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE IS
WRAPPING AROUND A BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS SRN GA AND FL
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
INDICATING A STABLE LAYER CENTERED AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL. THESE
FACTORS...ALONG WITH ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY --
BEING HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL STRATUS -- AND ONLY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM BECOMING
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE
COAST. AS SUCH...THE GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED.

...ELSEWHERE...
STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY-1 PERIOD.

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KSHV [151801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 151801
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TORNADO BELCHER 32.75N 93.84W
11/11/2012 CADDO LA NWS STORM SURVEY

A WEAK EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN AN OPEN FIELD BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 71 AND 3049 ON THE NORTH SIDE OF BELCHER. THIS
TORNADO CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS OPEN FARMLAND TO
NEAR THE END OF BELCHER RIVER ROAD AT ITS INTERSECTION
WITH A LEVEE BEFORE CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO WESTERN
BOSSIER PARISH. THE DAMAGE CONSISTED OF LARGE LIMBS BEING
SNAPPED OFF OF TREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 3049 AS WELL AS NEAR
THE END OF BELCHER RIVER ROAD. ESTIMATED WINDS WERE NEAR
65 MPH.

0520 PM TORNADO 4 NNW BENTON 32.75N 93.77W
11/11/2012 BOSSIER LA NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAK EF-0 TORNADO FROM
EASTERN CADDO PARISH. THIS TORNADO REMAINED SPORATICALLY
ON THE GROUND CROSSING OLD PLAIN DEALING ROAD TO HIGHWAY
3 NEAR ALDEN BRIDGE. LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED OFF A
FEW TREES ON PEACE LANE AS WELL AS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
HIGHWAY 3 NEAR ALDEN BRIDGE. THE TORNADO LIFTED SHORTLY
AFTER IT CROSSED HIGHWAY 3 IN A WOODED AREA JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 160. ESTIMATED WINDS WERE NEAR 65 MPH. THE WIDTH
WAS 25 YARDS. THE TOTAL PATH LENGTH WAS 7.0 MILES.


&&

$$

15

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KJAX [151754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 151754
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1254 PM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 5 NNW DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.39N 81.68W
11/15/2012 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

HIGH TIDAL LEVELS ALONG RIBAULT CREEK HAVE RISEN IN
SEVERAL YARDS OF HOMES ALONG RIBAULT SCENIC DRIVE. NO
FLOODING OF HOMES WAS REPORTED AT THIS TIME.


&&

$$

JHESS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151729
SWODY2
SPC AC 151727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...THE FL PENINSULA AND KEYS...
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. WHILE GENERALLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAY MATERIALIZE INVOF THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE DEEPENING SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY THE
COMBINATION OF /1/ WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT.../2/ A MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER
CENTERED NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE 700-MB LEVEL PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND /3/ THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH
PW VALUES AOB 1.3 INCHES. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SRN FL PENINSULA FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO SUPPORT A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX PIVOTS
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ASCENT LEADING THIS VORT MAX MAY
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF.
HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF THE ASCENT FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GIVEN NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FL
PENINSULA...THE FL KEYS...OR THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE COAST.

...ELSEWHERE...
WHILE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL SUPPORT
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF
PHASING BETWEEN ANY SUBSTANTIAL ASCENT AND BUOYANCY SHOULD GREATLY
LIMIT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH...A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM
AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED INVOF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONUS.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/15/2012

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KILM [151629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 151629
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1129 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0754 AM COASTAL FLOOD SPRINGMAID PIER 33.66N 78.92W
11/15/2012 HORRY SC NOS

TIDE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FROM 712 AM UNTIL 912
AM...PEAKING AT 8.26 FT MLLW AT 754 AM.

0800 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 SSE GARDEN CITY 33.58N 79.00W
11/15/2012 HORRY SC PUBLIC

HIGH WATER OBSERVED COVERING ROADS...SIDEWALKS...AND
PARKING LOTS ON A PICTURE TAKEN FROM DUNES REALTY

0800 AM COASTAL FLOOD 2 N CAROLINA BEACH 34.07N 77.89W
11/15/2012 NEW HANOVER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER CLOSED PORTIONS OF CANAL DRIVE

0800 AM COASTAL FLOOD 2 E NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 33.83N 78.64W
11/15/2012 HORRY SC BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGH WATER COVERING NEIGHBORHOOD STREETS NEAR THE BEACH
ON PHOTOS FROM CHERRY GROVE TAKEN BY A WBTW
PHOTOGRAPHER.

0800 AM COASTAL FLOOD SOUTHPORT 33.92N 78.02W
11/15/2012 BRUNSWICK NC MEDIA

HIGH WATER OBSERVED COVERING THE ROAD AND PARKING LOT
ON WEBCAM AT FISHY FISHY CAFE

0806 AM COASTAL FLOOD JOHNNY MERCER PIER 34.21N 77.80W
11/15/2012 NEW HANOVER NC NOS

TIDE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FROM 712 AM UNTIL 918
AM...PEAKING AT 6.63 FT MLLW AT 806 AM.

1106 AM COASTAL FLOOD 2 E BELVILLE 34.23N 77.95W
11/15/2012 NEW HANOVER NC OTHER FEDERAL

DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON RIVER GAUGE REPORTS TIDE ROSE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BEGINNING AT 948 AM...PEAKED AT 6.05 FT MLLW
AT 1106 AM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200388
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200389
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200390
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200391
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200392
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200393
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200394

$$

TRA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151628
SWODY1
SPC AC 151626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS SWD TO THE ERN FL PENINSULA...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TRACKING
EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A COMPACT LOBE OF ASCENT LEADING
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH
LITTLE /IF ANY/ DEEP CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. A
DECREASING LIGHTNING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE ASCENT IS PHASING WITH VERY MEAGER
INSTABILITY...AT MOST. AND...WITH THE 12Z MOREHEAD CITY NC SOUNDING
DEPICTING A NARROW-CAPE PROFILE WITH JUST OVER 100 J/KG OF CAPE FOR
A PARCEL LIFTED FROM AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL...LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
UNLIKELY AS THE VORT MAX TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.

FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP DRY AIR WITH A HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE IS
WRAPPING AROUND A BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS SRN GA AND FL
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
INDICATING A STABLE LAYER CENTERED AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL. THESE
FACTORS...ALONG WITH ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY --
BEING HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL STRATUS -- AND ONLY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION FROM BECOMING
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY AND ANY THREAT FOR LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE
COAST. AS SUCH...THE GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED.

...ELSEWHERE...
STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY-1 PERIOD.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/15/2012

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KCHS [151533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151533
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1033 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0906 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 WNW FORT SCREVEN 32.03N 80.90W
11/15/2012 CHATHAM GA TIDE GAGE

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 9.73 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGGE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST WHEN TIDE
LEVELS REACH 9.2 FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200827

$$

JHP

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KCHS [151530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151530
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 W MOUNT PLEASANT 32.79N 79.88W
11/15/2012 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

CHURCH STREET CLOSED NEAR MILL STREET DUE TO FLOODING.
FLOODING ALSO REPORTED IN PARKING LOT OF RB S RESTAURANT
NEARBY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200826

$$

RJB

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KJAX [151527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 151527
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1027 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0951 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES FERNANDINA BEACH 30.66N 81.45W
11/15/2012 NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 8.77 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT THE
FERNANDINA BEACH TIDE GAGE WHICH WAS +0.57 FT ABOVE THE
PREDICTED HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY
BEGINS WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 8.5 FT MLLW AT FERNANDINA
BEACH.


&&

$$

JHESS

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KCHS [151526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151526
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 N CHARLESTON 32.80N 79.94W
11/15/2012 CHARLESTON SC BROADCAST MEDIA

ROADS CLOSED DUE TO SALT WATER FLOODING ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF MORRISON DRIVE AND JACKSON STREET. TIME
OF REPORT ESTIMATED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200825

$$

JHP

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KCHS [151520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151520
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1020 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 ESE CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
11/15/2012 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS CLOSED DUE TO SALT WATER FLOODING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF STATE STREET AND SOUTH MARKET STREET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200824

$$

JHP

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KSHV [151518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 151518
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
917 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE BELCHER 32.76N 93.82W
11/11/2012 CADDO LA NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE LIMBS WERE DOWNED ON BELCHER RIVER ROAD NEAR THE
LEVEE.

0527 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW BENTON 32.75N 93.77W
11/11/2012 BOSSIER LA NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE LIMBS WERE DOWNED ON PEACE LANE.

0531 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N BENTON 32.78N 93.74W
11/11/2012 BOSSIER LA NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE PINE TREE LIMBS WERE DOWNED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
HIGHWAY 3 NEAR ALDEN BRIDGE ABOUT A HALF MILE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 160.


&&

$$

15

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KJAX [151512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 151512
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1012 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
11/15/2012 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 6.80 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT THE
MAYPORT TIDE GAGE WHICH WAS +0.65 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED
HIGH TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS WHEN
THE TIDE LEVELS REACH 6.40 FT MLLW AT MAYPORT.


&&

$$

JHESS

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KCHS [151423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151423
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 SE CHARLESTON 32.77N 79.93W
11/15/2012 CHARLESTON SC PILOT BOAT

SALT WATER FLOODING IN THE CHARLESTON BRANCH PILOTS
ASSOCIATION PARKING LOT.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200823

$$

JHP

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KCHS [151422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151422
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
921 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0842 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
11/15/2012 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

TIDE LEVEL PEAKED AT 7.9 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AT THIS TIME WAS 0.78 FEET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200822

$$

RJB

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KCHS [151405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151405
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
905 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 WNW CHARLESTON 32.79N 79.96W
11/15/2012 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SALT WATER FLOODING AT HAGOOD AVENUE AND FISHBURNE
STREET. ROADS ARE STILL PASSABLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200821

$$

JHP

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KCHS [151402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 151402
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
902 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
11/15/2012 CHARLESTON SC BROADCAST MEDIA

MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST BAY STREET


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1200820

$$

RJB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151231
SWODY1
SPC AC 151229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
MULTI-STREAM...FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH FRI. THE NRN STREAM ACROSS CNTRL/SRN CANADA WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT...WITH WEAKER SRN BRANCHES CONTINUING FROM SRN CA
AND THE SRN GRT BASIN INTO THE SRN PLNS...AND FROM THE CNTRL PLNS TO
THE S ATLANTIC CST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE LATTER BRANCH...NOW OVER
WRN SC...SHOULD REACH SRN NC THIS EVE AND THE VA CAPES EARLY FRI AS
UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES ESE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS.

AT THE SFC...LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
SUBSIDENT...MODIFIED POLAR AIR OVER MOST AREAS. SCTD ELEVATED
CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST ATOP THIS SHALLOW COOL
DOME OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TODAY...BEFORE ASCENT AND COOL
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SC UPR IMPULSE MOVE OFFSHORE.

IN THE W...A DEAMPLIFYING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL APPROACH CNTRL CA
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MID-LVL COOLING...MOISTENING...AND ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD YIELD LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
ASSOCIATED ELEVATED BUOYANCY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO FEEBLE/SHALLOW
FOR LIGHTNING.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/15/2012

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KCYS [151147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151147
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
447 AM MST THU NOV 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW SAGE CREEK BASIN 41.40N 107.26W
11/15/2012 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

SAGE CREEK BASIN SNOTEL IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE.
SNOWFALL IS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS.1
AND THE LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO WAS 10 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW DIVIDE PEAK 41.30N 107.15W
11/15/2012 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE DIVIDE PEAK SNOTEL IS IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE AND
THE SNOWFALL WAS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
WAS .2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATION WAS 10 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW SANDSTONE RANGER STATIO 41.11N 107.17W
11/15/2012 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE SANDSTONE RANGER STATION SNOTEL SITE IS IN THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WAS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 10 TO 1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS
10 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW OLD BATTLE 41.15N 106.97W
11/15/2012 E3.6 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE OLD BATTLE SNOTEL SITE IS IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE.
THE SNOWFALL WAS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
WAS .3 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATION WAS 12 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW WEBBER SPRINGS 41.16N 106.93W
11/15/2012 E2.4 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE WEBBER SPRINGS SNOTEL SITE IS IN THE SIERRA MADRE
RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WAS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS 12 TO 1 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS
12 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW LITTLE SNAKE RIVER 41.07N 106.94W
11/15/2012 E2.4 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE LITTLE SNAKE RIVER SNOTEL SITE IS IN THE SIERRA MADRE
RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WAS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS .2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 12 TO
1.

0100 AM SNOW WHISKEY PARK 41.00N 106.91W
11/15/2012 E2.4 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE WHISKEY PARK SNOTEL IS IN THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. THE
SNOWFALL WAS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS .2
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 12 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW 36 W BLUE HILL RESERVOI 43.06N 106.71W
11/15/2012 E2.4 INCH NATRONA WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE BLACKHALL MOUNTAIN SNOTEL SITE IN THE
SIERRA MADRE RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WAS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT WAS .2 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS
12 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW SOUTH BRUSH CREEK 41.33N 106.50W
11/15/2012 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL IS IN THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
SNOWFALL IS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS .2
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW NORTH FRENCH CREEK 41.33N 106.38W
11/15/2012 E4.8 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL SITE IS IN THE SNOWY RANGE.
THE SNOWFALL IS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS
.4 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 12 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW SAND LAKE 41.46N 106.28W
11/15/2012 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE SAND LAKE SNOTEL SITE IS IN THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
SNOWFALL IS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS .4
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 15 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW BROOKLYN LAKE 41.36N 106.23W
11/15/2012 E4.5 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE BROOKLYN LAKE SNOTEL SITE IS IN THE SNOWY RANGE. THE
SNOWFALL IS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS .3
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 15 TO 1.

0100 AM SNOW 2 NE ROB ROY RESERVOIR 41.24N 106.23W
11/15/2012 E4.5 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THIS IS FROM THE CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL SITE IN THE SNOWY
RANGE. THE SNOWFALL IS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS .3 AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 15 TO
1.

0100 AM SNOW CROW CREEK 41.23N 105.38W
11/15/2012 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE CROW CREEK SNOTEL SITE IS IN THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE
SNOWFALL IS SINCE 6 PM. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS .1
AND THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WAS 10 TO 1.


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150906
SWOD48
SPC AC 150906

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MONDAY
/DAY 5/...THOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN TX CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DAY 5. CUTOFF UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE ERN SEABOARD LATE
DAY 4 OR 5 WHILE ERN U.S. SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MODIFIED CP AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH
TX. THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE...THERE WILL LIKELY
NOT BE INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DAY 5.

DAY 6-7...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SRN
STREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SERN STATES DAY 6...BUT NELY SFC
TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

DAY 8...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE BY DAY 8 OVER TX GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF NEXT SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVERTISED BY ECMWF AND GFS. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
EXISTS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF
ANY SUCH FEATURE SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FORECAST.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150831
SWODY3
SPC AC 150830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ON SATURDAY A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SERN STATES
MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INCLUDING A STRONGER HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATER IN THE DAY. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA
OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A WEAK FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF THROUGH CNTRL FL.

...FL PENINSULA...

A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SRN HALF OF
THE FL PENINSULA WHERE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND DIABATIC
WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEEPER ASCENT WITH
VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SHOULD PROMOTE
MOISTENING AND COOLING OF MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MUCH GREATER OFFSHORE AND OVER THE GULF STREAM AREA.

...PACIFIC NW COASTAL AREA...

COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BAND WITH
MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY PERSISTING IN POST FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE
COAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
APPEARS MORE PROBABLE NEAR THE COAST IN POST FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
STEEPER MID LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150653
SWODY2
SPC AC 150651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S. FRIDAY. THE SRN BRANCH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CUT OFF OVER THE SERN STATES...WHILE A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME PREVAILS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...USHERING IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF CP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES. A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...BUT MAY SHIFT SLOWLY SWD DURING THE
DAY.

...CNTRL AND S FL...

LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST IN S FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHERE
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A MODEST INVERSION BASED
AROUND 700 MB WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WHICH MAY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. IT APPEARS ANY
DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT NECESSARY TO MODIFY THIS PROFILE WILL BE
MODEST AND MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY
VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH BASE. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE SUGGESTING COVERAGE OF
ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 11/15/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150516
SWODY1
SPC AC 150514

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS FROM
THE ROCKIES TO THE E COAST AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CNTRL STATES. EARLY IN THE DAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
SERN STATES...AND A FEW ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY BE
ONGOING. THIS THUNDER THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY WANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA.

TO THE W...AN UPPER JET AND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOSE
INTO CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE...AS WELL AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS
CNTRL CA.

..JEWELL/DISPIGNA.. 11/15/2012

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