KIWX [020347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIWX 020347
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1144 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM HAIL COLUMBUS GROVE 40.92N 84.06W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH PUTNAM OH STORM CHASER

0810 PM HAIL FORT JENNINGS 40.91N 84.30W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH PUTNAM OH STORM CHASER

0700 PM HAIL ANTWERP 41.18N 84.74W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH PAULDING OH AMATEUR RADIO

0644 PM HAIL 6 SW FORT WAYNE 41.01N 85.22W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH ALLEN IN UNKNOWN

0643 PM HAIL DEFIANCE 41.28N 84.36W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH DEFIANCE OH STORM CHASER

0638 PM HAIL N FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO

0638 PM HAIL HUNTERTOWN 41.23N 85.17W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO

0637 PM HAIL 3 N FORT WAYNE 41.12N 85.14W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH ALLEN IN STORM CHASER

0634 PM HAIL NW HUNTERTOWN 41.23N 85.17W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH ALLEN IN STORM CHASER

0630 PM HAIL N DENHAM 41.15N 86.71W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH PULASKI IN AMATEUR RADIO

0625 PM HAIL DEFIANCE 41.28N 84.36W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH DEFIANCE OH STORM CHASER

0551 PM HAIL DEFIANCE 41.28N 84.36W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH DEFIANCE OH AMATEUR RADIO

0545 PM HAIL 2 N COLUMBIA CITY 41.19N 85.48W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH WHITLEY IN COUNTY OFFICIAL

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG BRYAN 41.47N 84.55W
05/01/2007 WILLIAMS OH COUNTY OFFICIAL

POLES BENT AROUND COUNTY. ESTIMATED TIME FROM RADAR.

0541 PM HAIL WAUSEON 41.55N 84.14W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH FULTON OH EMERGENCY MNGR

0537 PM HAIL WAUSEON 41.55N 84.14W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH FULTON OH STORM CHASER

0535 PM HAIL 1 N FORT WAYNE 41.09N 85.14W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH ALLEN IN STORM CHASER

0534 PM HAIL 8 SW ALBION 41.31N 85.53W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH NOBLE IN STORM CHASER

0530 PM HAIL COLDWATER 41.94N 85.00W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH BRANCH MI STORM CHASER

0530 PM HAIL 2 SW NORTH WEBSTER 41.30N 85.72W
05/01/2007 M0.75 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN STORM CHASER

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG CHURUBUSCO 41.23N 85.32W
05/01/2007 WHITLEY IN STORM CHASER

LARGE LIMBS DOWN

0527 PM HAIL 1 W HUNTERTOWN 41.23N 85.19W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH ALLEN IN STORM CHASER

0523 PM HAIL EDON 41.56N 84.77W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH WILLIAMS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0522 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.73N 84.93W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH STEUBEN IN STORM CHASER

0521 PM HAIL 2 S NETTLE LAKE 41.65N 84.72W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH WILLIAMS OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

0520 PM HAIL ANGOLA 41.64N 85.00W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH STEUBEN IN STORM CHASER

0518 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.73N 84.93W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH STEUBEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0445 PM HAIL READING 41.84N 84.75W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH HILLSDALE MI EMERGENCY MNGR

0442 PM HAIL 1 S CHURUBUSCO 41.22N 85.32W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH WHITLEY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0441 PM TORNADO 3 N PETTISVILLE 41.57N 84.23W
05/01/2007 FULTON OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

MILE MARKER 28 OHIO TURNPIKE REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT

0441 PM HAIL 1 SW COLDWATER 41.93N 85.02W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH BRANCH MI AMATEUR RADIO

0432 PM HAIL COLDWATER 41.94N 85.00W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH BRANCH MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0425 PM HAIL 1 W COLDWATER 41.94N 85.02W
05/01/2007 M1.00 INCH BRANCH MI AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT BRANCH COUNTY AIRPORT

0402 PM HAIL OSSEO 41.89N 84.54W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH HILLSDALE MI EMERGENCY MNGR

0310 PM HAIL DELTA 41.57N 84.00W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH FULTON OH PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

0154 PM HAIL CAMDEN 41.76N 84.76W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH HILLSDALE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO NICKEL SIZED REPORTED

&&

$$

LAMMERS

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KCLE [020336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCLE 020336
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1136 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0329 PM HAIL WATERVILLE 41.50N 83.73W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0335 PM HAIL 8 N BOWLING GREEN 41.49N 83.65W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH WOOD OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0340 PM HAIL 8 N BOWLING GREEN 41.49N 83.65W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH WOOD OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0343 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 S BOWLING GREEN 41.23N 83.65W
05/01/2007 WOOD OH TRAINED SPOTTER

SIDE OF GARAGE BLOWN OUT.

0400 PM HAIL 3 N WOODVILLE 41.49N 83.36W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0402 PM HAIL WOODVILLE 41.45N 83.36W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0405 PM HAIL WOODVILLE 41.45N 83.36W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0410 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH SANDUSKY OH AMATEUR RADIO

0414 PM HAIL WOODVILLE 41.45N 83.36W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0415 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0416 PM HAIL WOODVILLE 41.45N 83.36W
05/01/2007 E1.25 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0417 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
05/01/2007 E1.25 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0418 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0420 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0421 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0430 PM HAIL BELLEVUE 41.28N 82.84W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0437 PM HAIL CLYDE 41.31N 82.98W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0440 PM HAIL MONROEVILLE 41.24N 82.70W
05/01/2007 M0.75 INCH HURON OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 PM HAIL 4 W NORWALK 41.24N 82.69W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH HURON OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0503 PM HAIL HOLLAND 41.62N 83.71W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0506 PM HAIL 1 NE TOLEDO 41.67N 83.57W
05/01/2007 M1.75 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM HAIL HOLLAND 41.62N 83.71W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM HAIL 2 S TOLEDO 41.63N 83.58W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0520 PM HAIL MAUMEE 41.57N 83.65W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0524 PM HAIL GREENWICH 41.03N 82.52W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH HURON OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0528 PM HAIL TOLEDO 41.66N 83.58W
05/01/2007 M0.75 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0535 PM HAIL ROCHESTER 41.12N 82.31W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH LORAIN OH EMERGENCY MNGR

0536 PM HAIL LUCKEY 41.45N 83.48W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH WOOD OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0544 PM HAIL CLYDE 41.31N 82.98W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0547 PM HAIL 1 W POLK 40.95N 82.23W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH ASHLAND OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0555 PM HAIL KINSMAN 41.45N 80.60W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH TRUMBULL OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NW TIFFIN 41.20N 83.29W
05/01/2007 SENECA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL POLES DOWN.

0559 PM HAIL 3 W TOLEDO 41.66N 83.64W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S MEADVILLE 41.63N 80.15W
05/01/2007 CRAWFORD PA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON HOUSE

0601 PM HAIL POLK 40.95N 82.21W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH ASHLAND OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0603 PM HAIL 5 SW MAUMEE 41.52N 83.72W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SE MEADVILLE 41.60N 80.08W
05/01/2007 CRAWFORD PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

OVER 100 TREES DOWN IN TAMAROCK LAKE AREA, SOME TREES
FELL ON HOUSES.

0605 PM HAIL 15 NE BOWLING GREEN 41.53N 83.44W
05/01/2007 M0.88 INCH WOOD OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SE MEADVILLE 41.60N 80.08W
05/01/2007 CRAWFORD PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF AND SKIRT BLOWN OFF MOBILE HOME.

0610 PM HAIL 5 W TIFFIN 41.12N 83.27W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH SENECA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM HAIL WOOSTER 40.82N 81.93W
05/01/2007 M1.00 INCH WAYNE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG LINESVILLE 41.66N 80.42W
05/01/2007 CRAWFORD PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0614 PM HAIL NORWALK 41.24N 82.61W
05/01/2007 M1.00 INCH HURON OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM HAIL TIFFIN 41.12N 83.18W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH SENECA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0617 PM TSTM WND GST ORRVILLE 40.85N 81.77W
05/01/2007 E55.00 MPH WAYNE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG MEADVILLE 41.65N 80.15W
05/01/2007 CRAWFORD PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HANGAR ROOF DAMAGED AND CONCRETE WALL BLOWN OUT OF A
BUILDING.

0625 PM HAIL 5 NW WAKEMAN 41.31N 82.47W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH ERIE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0631 PM HAIL TIFFIN 41.12N 83.18W
05/01/2007 M1.75 INCH SENECA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0636 PM HAIL 3 NE TIFFIN 41.15N 83.14W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH SENECA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0653 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S BOWLING GREEN 41.33N 83.65W
05/01/2007 WOOD OH TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN...16 TO 20 INCH DIAMETER

0705 PM HAIL PAINESVILLE 41.73N 81.25W
05/01/2007 M0.75 INCH LAKE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0707 PM HAIL EAST SPARTA 40.67N 81.35W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH STARK OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0708 PM HAIL MENTOR 41.69N 81.33W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH LAKE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0710 PM HAIL WILLOUGHBY 41.65N 81.41W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH LAKE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0712 PM HAIL 6 N CHARDON 41.67N 81.21W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH LAKE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM HAIL 5 SE PAINESVILLE 41.68N 81.18W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH LAKE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG WILLARD 41.05N 82.72W
05/01/2007 HURON OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

SMALL BARN BLEW INTO ROAD

0742 PM HAIL MIDDLEFIELD 41.46N 81.08W
05/01/2007 M0.75 INCH GEAUGA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0747 PM HAIL NEWTON FALLS 41.19N 80.97W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH TRUMBULL OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 PM HAIL NEWTON FALLS 41.19N 80.97W
05/01/2007 M1.00 INCH TRUMBULL OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0850 PM FLOOD 4 N WOOSTER 40.88N 81.93W
05/01/2007 WAYNE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

2.07 INCHES STORM TOTAL RAINFALL. ROADS CLOSED.

0906 PM HAIL 15 E MOUNT VERNON 40.39N 82.19W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH KNOX OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 PM FLOOD 5 N ASHLAND 40.94N 82.32W
05/01/2007 ASHLAND OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUMEROUS STATE AND US ROUTES CLOSED.

&&

$$

LOMBARDY

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KEWX [020313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 020313
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1013 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1013 PM HAIL 1 N BANDERA 29.74N 99.07W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH BANDERA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

JPB

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KFWD [020306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020306
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1006 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1004 PM TORNADO 7 S FAIRFIELD 31.62N 96.17W
05/01/2007 FREESTONE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

PUBLIC REPORTS OF POSSIBLE TORNADO IN DEW. SOME DAMAGE
REPORTED TO SO.

$$

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KFWD [020304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020304
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1004 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0933 PM TORNADO TEAGUE 31.63N 96.28W
05/01/2007 FREESTONE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO IN TEAGUE. DAMAGING TO SEVERAL
STRUCTURES REPORTED TO SO.

$$

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 206

WWUS20 KWNS 020303
SEL6
SPC WW 020303
OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-LEZ000-020300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 206 ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA
WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE

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KFWD [020303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020303
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1003 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM LIGHTNING CAMERON 30.86N 96.98W
05/01/2007 MILAM TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL, 1 INJ *** TWO PEOPLE WERE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. ONE WAS KILLED.

$$

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KPSR [020247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 020247
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
747 PM MST TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM DUST STORM FLORENCE 33.04N 111.37W
05/01/2007 PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND ESTIMATED 30 MPH WINDS.

0730 PM DUST STORM COOLIDGE 32.98N 111.53W
05/01/2007 PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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KIWX [020220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020220
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG BRYAN 41.47N 84.55W
05/01/2007 WILLIAMS OH COUNTY OFFICIAL

POLES BENT AROUND COUNTY. ESTIMATED TIME FROM RADAR.

&&

$$

AML

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KTOP [020109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 020109
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
809 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0806 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSE WESTMORELAND 39.33N 96.38W
05/01/2007 M7.78 INCH POTTAWATOMIE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR TODAY.

&&

$$

EK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020053
SWODY1
SPC AC 020051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN OH
VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL AND SW
TX...

..NRN OH VALLEY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FIRST IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH THE SECOND MORE SUBTLE TROUGH OVER SRN LOWER MI. THIS SECOND
FEATURE IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN
OH AND WRN PA. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM A SFC LOW OVER SW PA. AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH THE LINEAR MCS
MOVING SLOWLY SEWD INTO SE OH AND SW PA.

RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET FROM NE WI
EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI INTO FAR WRN NY. THIS FEATURE IS
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY FROM THE COLD FRONT
NWD WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINEAR
MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH AT THE LOWER-LEVELS AND AT
MID-LEVELS SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MARGINAL BY LATE THIS EVENING.

..SCNTRL AND SW TX...
A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER OK IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF STRONGER LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM
CNTRL TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALONG
THIS BAND OF STRONGER FLOW IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX EXTENDING EWD TO
THE SABINE RIVER. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
EXISTS IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE
VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL BE IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY STEEP IN THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DEL
RIO TX 00Z SOUNDING. IN ADDITION....SFC WINDS ARE BACKED WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
FOR THIS REASON...SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AT SOME POINT LATE THIS EVENING AS
SFC TEMPS AND INSTABILITY DROP ACROSS THE REGION.

.BROYLES.. 05/02/2007

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KPBZ [020016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 020016
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
816 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S CLARION 41.14N 79.38W
05/01/2007 CLARION PA EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. MONROE, REDBANK,
LIMESTONE TWPS.

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SE CLARION 41.13N 79.27W
05/01/2007 CLARION PA EMERGENCY MNGR

HOUSE DAMAGED. NEAR LIMESTONE-REDBANK TWP LINE.

0812 PM HAIL UTICA 41.44N 79.96W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH VENANGO PA EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

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KIWX [020013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020013
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
813 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HAIL FORT JENNINGS 40.91N 84.30W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH PUTNAM OH STORM CHASER

&&

$$

AML

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 205

WWUS20 KWNS 020003
SEL5
SPC WW 020003
INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LMZ000-020000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 205 ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

INDIANA
MICHIGAN
OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE MICHIGAN

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KSJT [012359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 012359
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM HAIL 10 N PONTOTOC 31.06N 99.00W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH SAN SABA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

07

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KTOP [012353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KTOP 012353
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 AM FLASH FLOOD WESTMORELAND 39.40N 96.42W
05/01/2007 POTTAWATOMIE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING OVER FLUSH ROAD. TRAFFIC IMPEDED BY WATER
FLOWING OVER ROADWAY.

0958 AM FLASH FLOOD LOUISVILLE 39.25N 96.31W
05/01/2007 POTTAWATOMIE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CORRECTION TO PREVIOUS LSR...PEOPLE HAVE BEEN PREPARED
FOR EVACUATION IN THE EVENT THE ROCK CREEK OVER FLOWS ITS
BANKS.

1045 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE MANHATTAN 39.15N 96.47W
05/01/2007 RILEY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

DEEP CREEK REPORTED OUT OF ITS BANKS NEAR ZEANDALE.

0115 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 N WILSEY 38.69N 96.68W
05/01/2007 MORRIS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS OBSERVED BY PUBLIC AND
LAW ENFORCEMENT NORTH OF WILSEY.

0122 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 W WILSEY 38.64N 96.79W
05/01/2007 MORRIS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER OBSERVED 3 FUNNELS HALF WAY TO THE GROUND 1/2
MILE SOUTH OF DELEVAN NEAR MILE MARKER 333 ON HWY 56.

0132 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 SE LATIMER 38.71N 96.81W
05/01/2007 MORRIS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 FUNNELS REPORTED NEAR LATIMER

0150 PM TORNADO 1 N ALMA 39.03N 96.29W
05/01/2007 WABAUNSEE KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 2 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 NEAR
ALMA.

0307 PM TORNADO SE MAPLE HILL 39.08N 96.03W
05/01/2007 WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND...BUT HAS SINCE LIFTED.

0337 PM FLASH FLOOD MAPLE HILL 39.08N 96.03W
05/01/2007 WABAUNSEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY K-30 BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND MAPLE HILL CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0437 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW ST. GEORGE 39.27N 96.46W
05/01/2007 M4.50 INCH POTTAWATOMIE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT MEASURED TO HAVE FALLEN SO FAR TODAY. AN
UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF 6 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED TO
HAVE FALLEN AT THE HOME OF THE SPOTTERS NEIGHBOR TO THE
NORTH.

0454 PM FLASH FLOOD WILLARD 39.09N 95.94W
05/01/2007 SHAWNEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CARLSON ROAD A HALF MILE SOUTH OF WILLARD PARTIALLY
WASHED OUT DUE TO FLASH FLOOD.

0601 PM FLASH FLOOD WILLARD 39.09N 95.94W
05/01/2007 SHAWNEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CARLSON ROAD A HALF MILE SOUTH OF WILLARD PARTIALLY
WASHED OUT BY FLASH FLOOD BUT STILL PASSABLE.

0604 PM FLASH FLOOD WILLARD 39.09N 95.94W
05/01/2007 SHAWNEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CARLSON ROAD A HALF MILE SOUTH OF WILLARD PARTIALLY
WASHED OUT DUE TO FLASH FLOOD.

&&

$$

EK

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KSJT [012342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 012342
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL PONTOTOC 30.91N 98.98W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH MASON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

07

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KTOP [012313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 012313
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM FLASH FLOOD MAPLE HILL 39.08N 96.03W
05/01/2007 WABAUNSEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY K-30 BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND MAPLE HILL CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

KAYS

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KLSX [012251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 012251
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
551 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL FLORISSANT 38.80N 90.32W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SIZE AND TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

TRUETT

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KSGF [012215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 012215
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD VERSAILLES 38.43N 92.84W
05/01/2007 MORGAN MO BROADCAST MEDIA

WATER WAS REPORTED TO BE RISING INTO LOCAL BUSINESSES IN
THE CITY OF VERSAILLES.

&&

$$

WISE

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KIWX [012152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 012152
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
552 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 2 N COLUMBIA CITY 41.19N 85.48W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH WHITLEY IN COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

$$

AML

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KIWX [012144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 012144
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
544 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 2 SW NORTH WEBSTER 41.30N 85.72W
05/01/2007 M0.75 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN STORM CHASER

&&

$$

AML

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KDTX [012133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 012133
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
533 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL DEARBORN HEIGHTS 42.33N 83.27W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH WAYNE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SF

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KIWX [012127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 012127
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
526 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM HAIL 2 S NETTLE LAKE 41.65N 84.72W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH WILLIAMS OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

AML

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KIWX [012118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 012118
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
518 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM TORNADO 3 N PETTISVILLE 41.57N 84.23W
05/01/2007 FULTON OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

MILE MARKER 28 OHIO TURNPIKE REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BJS

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KIWX [012047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 012047
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HAIL 1 S CHURUBUSCO 41.22N 85.32W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH WHITLEY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BJS

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KSJT [012016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 012016
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TORNADO 6 E LOHN 31.32N 99.31W
05/01/2007 MCCULLOCH TX AMATEUR RADIO

LAND SPOUT TORNADO LASTED FOR ABOUT 15 MINUTES BEFORE
LIFTING.

&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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KIWX [012002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 012002
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
402 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM HAIL OSSEO 41.89N 84.54W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH HILLSDALE MI EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

NWS

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KJKL [011849]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 011849
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG PEBBLE 38.27N 83.76W
04/26/2007 BATH KY NWS STORM SURVEY

TWO LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0749 PM TORNADO 3 W HILLSBORO 38.29N 83.71W
04/26/2007 FLEMING KY NWS STORM SURVEY

EF1 TORANDO WITH MAX WINDS OF 105 MPH TOUCHED DOWN AT
APPROXIMATELY 749 PM EDT. PATH LENGTH APPROXIMATELY 3
MILES LONG AND 200 YARDS WIDE. 3 BARNS WERE DESTROYED AND
A CONCRETE SILO WAS BLOWN OVER. NUMEROUS TREES WERE
SNAPPED ALONG THE PATH.

&&

$$

JP

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KTSA [011806]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 011806
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W HUGO 34.01N 95.53W
04/30/2007 CHOCTAW OK EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DAMAGED. TWO TREES BLOWN DOWN.

0740 PM HAIL 2 NW RATTAN 34.22N 95.44W
04/30/2007 E0.75 INCH PUSHMATAHA OK PUBLIC

0840 PM HAIL 1 N MESSER 34.10N 95.47W
04/30/2007 E0.88 INCH CHOCTAW OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

SAA

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KIWX [011757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 011757
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0154 PM HAIL CAMDEN 41.76N 84.76W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH HILLSDALE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO NICKEL SIZED REPORTED

&&

$$

NWS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0636

ACUS11 KWNS 011709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011709
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-011915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...NRN IND...SRN LWR MI...NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011709Z - 011915Z

A WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z...IF NOT BEFORE.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN CONFLUENT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR CHICAGO...
EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BORDER AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED
80F...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RISING TO AROUND 60F...CONTRIBUTING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY INTO THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING
HOURS...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY LOCALLY APPROACH 2000 J/KG.

MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AND MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER... THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED BOUNDARY BASED STORMS
COULD OCCUR A BIT EARLIER. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR LAKE
BREEZE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. IF THIS OCCURS...A MODERATELY
SHEARED DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.

INITIATION/INTENSIFICATION OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE ABOVE WARM FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER FARTHER TO THE
EAST...ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE.
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE A BIT BETTER
ACROSS THIS REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

.KERR.. 05/01/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

41958738 42358612 42428477 42258375 42178273 42088185
41348190 40968297 40908433 41088587 41158666 41158761
41318837 41578787

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KEWX [011641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 011641
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0721 AM FLASH FLOOD 25 NNE BRACKETTVILLE 29.65N 100.25W
04/30/2007 EDWARDS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER IS OVER FM674 AND PARTS OF FM334.

1018 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S BANDERA 29.65N 99.07W
04/30/2007 BANDERA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGH WIND GUSTS BLEW TREES DOWN AND CAUSED DAMAGE TO
ROOFS 5 MILES SOUTH OF BANDERA.

1018 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S BANDERA 29.65N 99.07W
04/30/2007 BANDERA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS GUSTS WITH TREES BLOWN OVER AND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS 5 MILES SOUTH OF BANDERA.

1018 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S BANDERA 29.65N 99.07W
04/30/2007 BANDERA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS BELOW OVER TREES AND CAUSED
DAMAGE TO ROOFS 5 MILES SOUTH OF BANDERA.

1205 PM HAIL 4 S SEGUIN 29.52N 97.97W
04/30/2007 E1.00 INCH GUADALUPE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUATER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG WITH 50 TO 65
MPH WINDS GUSTS.

0101 PM HAIL 12 N GONZALES 29.68N 97.45W
04/30/2007 E1.25 INCH GONZALES TX PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND LARGER, PLUS STRONG WINDS WHICH IS
KNOCKING HIS VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD.

0116 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 N CHEAPSIDE 29.33N 97.40W
04/30/2007 GONZALES TX PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED A FEW MILES NORTH OF CHEAPSIDE.

0301 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N BOERNE 29.82N 98.74W
04/30/2007 KENDALL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS CLOSED THROUGH-OUT KENDALL
COUNTY.

0303 PM HAIL WARING 29.95N 98.80W
04/30/2007 M2.00 INCH KENDALL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0635 PM FLASH FLOOD CUERO 29.09N 97.29W
04/30/2007 DEWITT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED/CLOSED IN COUNTY

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE YOAKUM 29.32N 97.11W
04/30/2007 LAVACA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER RESCUE ON COUNTY ROAD 420

&&

$$

PM

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KTOP [011557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 011557
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1057 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 ESE MANHATTAN 39.15N 96.47W
05/01/2007 RILEY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER REPORTED FLOWING OVER K18 JUST WEST OF ZEANDALE.
DEEP CREEK ALSO REPORTED OUT OF ITS BANKS NEAR ZEANDALE.

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [011539]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KTOP 011539
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1039 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 AM FLASH FLOOD WESTMORELAND 39.40N 96.42W
05/01/2007 POTTAWATOMIE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING OVER FLUSH ROAD. TRAFFIC IMPEDED BY WATER
FLOWING OVER ROADWAY.

0958 AM FLASH FLOOD LOUISVILLE 39.25N 96.31W
05/01/2007 POTTAWATOMIE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CORRECTION TO PREVIOUS LSR...PEOPLE HAVE BEEN PREPARED
FOR EVACUATION IN THE EVENT THE ROCK CREEK OVER FLOWS ITS
BANKS.

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KLOT [011534]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLOT 011534
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1033 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM TORNADO PLAINFIELD 41.62N 88.20W
04/26/2007 WILL IL NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO MOVED 3.2 MILES FROM ROUTE 126 AND EASTERN AVE IN
PLAINFIELD TO ESSINGTON ROAD AND PATRICK HENRY PARKWAY IN
BOLINGBROOK. AN SUV IN THE PARKING LOT OF A NURSING HOME
WAS FLIPPED. THERE WAS ROOF DAMAGE TO NURSING HOME.
SHINGES, SIDING, LAWN FURNITURE AND PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT
DAMAGED AT HOMES IN SUBDIVISIONS NEAR ESSINGTON AND 127TH
STREET.

&&

$$

NMARSILI

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KJKL [011518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 011518
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1118 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E LYTTEN 38.11N 83.19W
04/26/2007 ELLIOTT KY PUBLIC

TREES DOWN IN COMMUNITY OF RUIN.

&&

$$

RAY

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KTOP [011500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 011500
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 AM FLASH FLOOD LOUISVILLE 39.25N 96.31W
05/01/2007 POTTAWATOMIE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEOPLE EVACUATED FROM HOMES DUE TO FLOODING

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [011411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 011411
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
910 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 AM FLASH FLOOD WESTMORELAND 39.40N 96.42W
05/01/2007 POTTAWATOMIE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING OVER 24 HWY. FLUSH ROAD AT 24 HWY CLOSED.
TRAFFIC IMPEDED BY WATER FLOWING OVER ROADWAY.

&&

$$

BYRNE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011231
SWODY1
SPC AC 011229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX...

..SRN GREAT LAKES INTO PA...
SURFACE LOW NEAR LSE EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS FAR SRN MI ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD NEAR
THE MI-IN/OH BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE WILL EXTEND OVER THE WARM SECTOR FROM NERN
IND INTO WRN PA WITH H5 WINDS FROM 40-50 KT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
CONCURRENCE WITH STRENGTHENING WSWLY LLJ INTO ERN OH/WRN PA/SWRN NY
BY LATE TODAY AS H85 WINDS INCREASE AOA 25 KT. THUS...OVERALL SHEAR
WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF PA AFTER DARK AS LLJ AND SURFACE
WAVE MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE
CENTER AROUND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
INFLUENCES ON INSTABILITY. APPEARS 10+C H85 DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT
STEADILY ENEWD AWAY FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND EXTEND INTO THE
SRN GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY. RESULTANT DOWNWARD MIXING WILL AID
ENEWD ADVECTION OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND ALLOW SURFACE DEW POINTS TO
INCREASE INTO MID/UPPER 50S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON INTO WRN PA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SURFACE
HEATING...MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD BE QUITE COMMON WITHIN
WARM SECTOR OVER THIS AREA TODAY.

DEEP ASCENT...COLOCATED WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE...
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/NRN IL ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES ACROSS THIS REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY NEAR H85-H7 JETS INTO NERN
OH/WRN PA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
LLJ AXIS INTO WRN/CENTRAL PA BY THIS EVENING...WITH STORMS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED NORTH AND EAST OF WARM FRONT INTO NY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC AFTER DARK.

..TX...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE RATHER NONDESCRIPT OVER TX TODAY
AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD
ACROSS OK THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS CENTRAL TX
HAVE BECOME MUDDLED BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...INCLUDING ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING. PRIMARY
SURFACE WARM FRONT/REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY E-W
ACROSS CENTRAL TX FROM NEAR UTS/CLL TO NORTH OF AUS TO BETWEEN SJT
AND JCT MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIST
ALONG NRN EDGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TX. THOUGH DEEP
ASCENT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABSENT...CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL TX TODAY. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...THOUGH MID LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AROUND 30 KT...AND SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 05/01/2007

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KMKX [011207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 011207
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
706 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0702 AM HAIL SOUTH MILWAUKEE 42.91N 87.86W
05/01/2007 E0.50 INCH MILWAUKEE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0635

ACUS11 KWNS 011151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011151
TXZ000-011415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 011151Z - 011415Z

CLUSTER OF HEAVY TSTMS -- EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS HAMILTON/SAN
SABA/MASON/LLANO/LAMPASAS COUNTIES AS OF 11Z -- WILL MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS SOME AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY PRIOR TSTMS...WITH SOME ECHO
TRAINING POSSIBLE GIVEN ZONAL COMPONENT OF MCS ORIENTATION. AREAS
BENEATH AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...ACROSS
BURNET/BELL/CORYELL/MCLENNAN/FALLS/LIMESTONE/MILAM/ROBERTSON/WILLIAM
SON AND POSSIBLY TRAVIS COUNTIES...WILL EXPERIENCE 1-2 INCH/HOUR
RAINFALL RATES...LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.

ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD NEAR AND N OF WESTERN SECTION
OF SFC WARM FRONT...ANALYZED FROM JUST N AUS ESEWD ACROSS BPT
REGION. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH AROUND 14 G/KG
MEAN MIXING RATIONS AS PART OF ABOUT 1.5 INCH PW. ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG
ELEVATED MUCAPE. 45 KT SSWLY LLJ EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER
DATA SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER 12Z....BUT STILL WILL MAINTAIN
BOTH FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ALONG SRN PORTION OF MCS AND
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.EDWARDS.. 05/01/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30899905 31319812 31629735 31629648 31139635 30599701
30429750 30489821 30579896

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KMKX [011124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 011124
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0604 AM HAIL BROWN DEER 43.17N 87.97W
05/01/2007 M0.25 INCH MILWAUKEE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RS

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KSJT [010953]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 010953
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
452 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM FLASH FLOOD BROWNWOOD 31.71N 98.99W
05/01/2007 BROWN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREET FLOODING ONGOING IN THE CITY OF BROWNWOOD

0410 AM FLASH FLOOD BROWNWOOD 31.71N 98.99W
05/01/2007 BROWN TX AMATEUR RADIO

RESCUES OF PEOPLE FROM HOMES ONGOING IN THE CITY OF
BROWNWOOD

&&

$$

WRIGHT

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010901
SWOD48
SPC AC 010900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

..DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A SLOWER EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THAN SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. WRN U.S. TROUGH IS NOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN DURING DAY 4 /FRI/...AND THEN BECOME CUT-OFF
FROM THE NRN STREAM ON DAY 5 /SAT/ AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE STRENGTHENS
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY.

THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MOIST SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES BENEATH SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH DAYS
4-5...PRIOR TO MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL ON DAY
6 /SUN/ IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG DRY LINE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VECTORS CROSSING
SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS ON DAYS 4-5.

MODEL RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING OF WRN STATES LOW
EJECTION EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION
OF AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.PETERS.. 05/01/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN STATES ON
THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND THEN TRACK NNEWD TO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN N-S
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE NERN STATES
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES.

..NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NWD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG AND E OF LEE TROUGH. SELY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES/STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN MT/ERN WY. THUS...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME BENEATH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH BY MID-LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX TO WRN LA...
SWRN STATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN TX BY
LATE DAY 2 IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E TOWARD SRN PART OF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...FURTHER
WEAKENING OF LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS IMPULSE IS PROGGED AS PART OF
THIS WAVE TRACKS N TOWARD MID MO VALLEY AND SOME ENERGY TRANSLATES
ESEWD THROUGH LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO SRN APPALACHIANS REGION.

ALTHOUGH TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING...ASCENT
SPREADING EWD ATOP MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL INTO ERN TX
SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 40
KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THIS OUTLOOK WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES GIVEN SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
STRENGTH OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH WEAKENING SRN STREAM TROUGH.

.PETERS.. 05/01/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0634

ACUS11 KWNS 010603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010603
TXZ000-010830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 010603Z - 010830Z

THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING GENERALLY SEWD AROUND SRN
RIM OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. LRG HAIL AND ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN NM...WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN AND SJT AREA TO SRN HILL
COUNTRY...GENERALLY PARALLEL TO AND ABOUT 60 NM N OF I-10. MOST
FAVORABLE SFC AIR MASS -- WITH DEW POINTS MID 60S F -- WILL REMAIN
ALONG AND S OF THIS WARM FRONT...WHICH IS FCST TO DRIFT NWD EXCEPT
WHERE LOCALLY/EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD AGAIN BY OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS TO
ITS N. NOTE THAT ADJACENT SFC STATIONS AQO AND T82 NW OF SAT ARE
REPORTING BOGUS SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 6-7 DEG F TOO HIGH THAT MAY
AFFECT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES IN MESOBETA SCALE INFLOW REGION. THOSE
ASIDE...PRIND SFC AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...BASED ON MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS AND ON STRENGTHENING INVERSION IMPLIED BY INCREASE IN
REFLECTIVITY CLUTTER. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC...ALTHOUGH BOW CIRCULATIONS AND
REAR-FLANK DOWNDRAFT WINDS IN ANY SUPERCELLS STILL MAY CAUSE DAMAGE.
LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40-45 KT ACROSS BROAD AREA FROM
SAT-MAF...AND WILL BE MAINTAINED SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH SOME SWLY
VEERING POSSIBLE BETWEEN SJT-MAF. ASSOCIATED/ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE SFC MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WITH MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH BOW AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ROOTED ALOFT.

.EDWARDS.. 05/01/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30469899 30880017 31510180 31920219 32350210 32440143
32450044 33129982 33109883 32619799 31849710 30889748
30499824

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010602
SWODY2
SPC AC 010601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND CENTRAL
TX...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE NERN PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
ALONG THE W COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WEDNESDAY...AS NRN
BRANCH OF JET STREAM BECOMES AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM WITH RIDGING OVER
NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM UPPER LOW...NOW APPROACHING SRN CA...WILL
MIGRATE EWD FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF W TX BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER TRACKS SLOWLY NEWD
FROM OK/AR TO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NNEWD FROM UT/CO BORDER ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF NERN PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WSWWD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO MO...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING TWO BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF TX...
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH BOUNDARIES EXTENDING
FROM THE MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER PARTS
OF WRN/CENTRAL TX AND SERN NM AS TSTMS DEVELOP EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WITHIN REGION OF
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF SWRN
STATES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SW TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 50 KT WLY
MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING SWRN TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO SW TX
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TSTMS MOVE EWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SW/WEST CENTRAL TX. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AND MOVE TOWARD
CENTRAL PARTS OF TX.

..ERN MT INTO NRN WY...
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
ALONG NRN HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
TRACK NNE TOWARD SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INTO ERN PARTS OF MT
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE 50 F/ ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST MUCAPES VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MT/NRN WY AS ASCENT AHEAD
OF UT/CO IMPULSE REACHES THIS AREA BY PEAK HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING NNEWD
ACROSS ERN MT WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND PRECLUDE
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NERN NC...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
OFF THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST DURING DAY 2. SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS COLD FRONT TRACKS SSEWD THROUGH VA REACHING
THE VA/NC BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.PETERS.. 05/01/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010543
SWODY1
SPC AC 010541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN OH
VALLEY...

..SRN PLAINS...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS OK TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT
EWD INTO CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND CNTRL TX...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND
NORTH TX THIS EVENING WITH STORMS MOVING SLOWLY EWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...A MIX OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN CNTRL TX WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETTER PHASED. BACKED SFC WINDS AND A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
FOR A TORNADO THREAT. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH SUPERCELLS IN CNTRL TX AND NORTH TX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SW TX...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ISOLATED. IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

..NRN OH VALLEY...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD FROM A SFC LOW
OVER SRN LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE OVER FORECASTING SFC
DEWPOINTS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN OH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING SHOW MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...FORECAST
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
MULTICELLULAR WITH LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM NE CO
EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS ERN WY INTO SRN MT. THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SFC HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN WY SHOW STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.

.BROYLES/GRAMS.. 05/01/2007

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