SWOD48
SPC AC 010900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A SLOWER EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THAN SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. WRN U.S. TROUGH IS NOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN DURING DAY 4 /FRI/...AND THEN BECOME CUT-OFF
FROM THE NRN STREAM ON DAY 5 /SAT/ AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE STRENGTHENS
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY.
THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MOIST SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES BENEATH SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH DAYS
4-5...PRIOR TO MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL ON DAY
6 /SUN/ IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG DRY LINE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VECTORS CROSSING
SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS ON DAYS 4-5.
MODEL RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING OF WRN STATES LOW
EJECTION EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION
OF AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
.PETERS.. 05/01/2007
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