Tuesday, April 24, 2007

WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 174

WWUS20 KWNS 250341
SEL4
SPC WW 250340
TXZ000-250100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 174 ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 183

WWUS20 KWNS 250340
SEL3
SPC WW 250340
TXZ000-251100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF AUSTIN TEXAS
TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 179. WATCH NUMBER 179 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1040 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW 182...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INVOF THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER LATE THIS EVENING WHERE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE. MODERATE
TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INTENSE LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PERSIST ACROSS WW OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


..EVANS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 182

WWUS20 KWNS 250336
SEL2
SPC WW 250336
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF TEXARKANA
ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 176. WATCH NUMBER 176 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1035 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...

DISCUSSION...SERIES OF SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW BOW ECHOES --
WILL PROCEED EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND
SWRN AR WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING SVR GUSTS. IN ADDITION TO WIND
THREAT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADIC
MESOVORTICES OCCURRING WITH BOWS/LEWPS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


..EDWARDS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0573

ACUS11 KWNS 250307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250307
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/CENTRAL/NE TX...EXTREME SERN OK...SWRN
AR.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 176...179...

VALID 250307Z - 250430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 176...179...CONTINUES.

SVR POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO SAT REGION...SHOULD PERSIST AFTER SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION TIME
FOR THESE WWS. THEREFORE ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW ISSUANCES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THOSE REGIONS.

AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO SRN AR SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH BOW ECHOES NOW EVIDENT NEAR PRX...AND OVER
SRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX. KINEMATIC PROFILES AS EVIDENT FROM PAT
PROFILER AND SHV VWP INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR TO SUSTAIN SVR THREAT
EWD ACROSS MORE OF NE TX AND SRN AR...AND ALSO...FOR SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL WITH EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS. DEVELOPMENT OF 50-60 KT
SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...E.G.
0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG. MODIFIED FWD RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WILL REMAIN ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR
SFC FOR OBSERVED DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F.

FARTHER SW...DAMAGING/TORNADIC EAGLE PASS SUPERCELL IS DISSIPATING S
SAT AS IT MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STOUT CAPPING...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME FARTHER
W. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS
AREAS BETWEEN SAT-EAGLE PASS-COT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND SVR GUST POTENTIAL. AS WITH
EARLIER ACTIVITY...LIMITING FACTOR WITH EWD EXTENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE STRONG CINH...AS EVIDENT IN 00Z CRP RAOB. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE
COUNTERACTED NEAR AND W OF I-35 BY STRONG LIFT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

.EDWARDS.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

29360101 31699828 33679611 34209420 33359389 32839397
32129489 30709661 28929814 28279901 28069998

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0572

ACUS11 KWNS 250305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250305
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND SOUTHWEST IL AND FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250305Z - 250430Z

MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MO/NORTHEAST AR...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST IL AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF KY/TN. A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

STRONG/SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AT 40+ KNOTS
ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND NORTH CENTRAL AR...GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM
COLUMBIA MO TO HOT SPRINGS/NORTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK AR AS OF 03Z.
DIMINISHING VERTICAL SHEAR /PER BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER/...LEADING
LINE PRECIPITATION...AND A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST THAT THE MCS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A SEVERE THREAT IS UNCLEAR INTO
SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

.GUYER.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

38769161 39009097 38358979 36988878 35268925 35029059
35449150 36499098 37819137 38539162

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 172

WWUS20 KWNS 250204
SEL2
SPC WW 250203
KSZ000-250000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 172 ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 178

WWUS20 KWNS 250146
SEL8
SPC WW 250146
KSZ000-MOZ000-250400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
846 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 178 ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
MISSOURI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 250117
SWODY1
SPC AC 250115

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SW THROUGH NE TEXAS...

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
SW THROUGH NE TX...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO MO/AR AND NWRN LA...

CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTERED OVER SERN CO IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW TRANSLATING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER
SCALE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SRN NM WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN TX
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD
FROM SWRN KS INTO NRN OK TONIGHT...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ESEWD REACHING WRN OK TO W CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND
THEN EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH N TX TO SW TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.


..CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OK...
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL /90+ KT/ AND UPPER LEVEL /120+ KT/ JETS
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN FURTHER INCREASE IN
ASCENT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TO ERN TX
ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SWLY LLJ FROM SRN-ERN
TX COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...SOME
TORNADIC...FROM PARTS OF SW TO NE TX. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SQUALL LINE/MCS DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO E/SE TX. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...SOME STRONG...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WIND
PRODUCING SQUALL LINE...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN HIGH AND MODERATE
RISK AREAS ACROSS SW THROUGH CENTRAL AND NE TX.

..KS/OK INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG NRN EXTENT
OF DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL INTO N CENTRAL KS NEAR INTERSECTION OF WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NERN KS AND SECOND BOUNDARY MOVING SWD
THROUGH WRN KS. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION.

MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND
OR AFTER 03Z/ SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN OK TO NW TX AS PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THIS BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WOULD THEN TRACK EWD ACROSS OK/SRN
KS INTO SERN KS/ERN OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER E...COLD POOL ENHANCED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
MO/AR THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND SOME HAIL THREAT.
HOWEVER...WEAKER LAPSE RATES WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
EWD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

..ERN CO/FAR WRN KS...
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ERN CO/FAR
WRN KS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS ESEWD OVERNIGHT. DECREASING
SHEAR AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING TREND
IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORMS TO THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..LOWER OH VALLEY...
A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY
/MOST LIKELY INTO NERN MO/ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS ATTENDANT EWD
EXTENDING WARM FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY NWD INTO CENTRAL IL TO SWRN OH.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z
ALONG NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND FOR
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.PETERS.. 04/25/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250103
SWODY1
SPC AC 250101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SW THROUGH NE TEXAS...

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
SW THROUGH NE TX...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO MO/AR AND NWRN LA...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTERED OVER SERN CO IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW TRANSLATING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER
SCALE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SRN NM WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN TX
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD
FROM SWRN KS INTO NRN OK TONIGHT...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ESEWD REACHING WRN OK TO W CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND
THEN EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH N TX TO SW TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.


..CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OK...
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL /90+ KT/ AND UPPER LEVEL /120+ KT/ JETS
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN FURTHER INCREASE IN
ASCENT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TO ERN TX
ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SWLY LLJ FROM SRN-ERN
TX COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...SOME
TORNADIC...FROM PARTS OF SW TO NE TX. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SQUALL LINE/MCS DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO E/SE TX. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...SOME STRONG...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WIND
PRODUCING SQUALL LINE...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN HIGH AND MODERATE
RISK AREAS ACROSS SW THROUGH CENTRAL AND NE TX.

..KS/OK INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG NRN EXTENT
OF DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL INTO N CENTRAL KS NEAR INTERSECTION OF WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NERN KS AND SECOND BOUNDARY MOVING SWD
THROUGH WRN KS. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION.

MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND
OR AFTER 03Z/ SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN OK TO NW TX AS PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THIS BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WOULD THEN TRACK EWD ACROSS OK/SRN
KS INTO SERN KS/ERN OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER E...COLD POOL ENHANCED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
MO/AR THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND SOME HAIL THREAT.
HOWEVER...WEAKER LAPSE RATES WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
EWD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

..ERN CO/FAR WRN KS...
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ERN CO/FAR
WRN KS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS ESEWD OVERNIGHT. DECREASING
SHEAR AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING TREND
IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORMS TO THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..LOWER OH VALLEY...
A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY
/MOST LIKELY INTO NERN MO/ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS ATTENDANT EWD
EXTENDING WARM FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY NWD INTO CENTRAL IL TO SWRN OH.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z
ALONG NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND FOR
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.PETERS.. 04/25/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 173

WWUS20 KWNS 250103
SEL3
SPC WW 250103
OKZ000-TXZ000-250100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 173 ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0571

ACUS11 KWNS 250053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250053
MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS/WRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178...180...

VALID 250053Z - 250230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 178...180...CONTINUES.

MUCH OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN KS HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY RECENT
CONVECTION. THUS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
MUCH OF WW 178...AND ONLY VALID PART OF THIS WATCH IS ACROSS SERN KS
AND FAR WRN MO. LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING MANHATTAN KS MAY PRESENT
A THREAT...BUT THESE STORMS MAY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING NERN KS. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA SHOWS PRESENCE OF WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IN
WAKE OF CONVECTION.

MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN MO...MAIN
THREATS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. EXPANSIVE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH
ONGOING CLUSTERS WILL NOT ENHANCE INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...AND
INSTABILITY IS ALREADY WANING DUE TO SUNSET. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MORE TRAINING AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING.

.TAYLOR.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

36479245 37009502 38939474 40199430 40119238 36479100

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0570

ACUS11 KWNS 250034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250033
ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX INCLUDING
METROPLEX...EXTREME SERN OK...WRN AR...EXTREME SWRN MO.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 174...176...177...

VALID 250033Z - 250230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
174...176...177...CONTINUES.

THOSE COUNTIES OF ORIGINAL 174 FROM BROWN/COMANCHE/HAMILTON SWWD
HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO NEWER WW 179. WW 174 IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 1Z...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION REMAINING OVER
AREA FROM STEPHENS/PALO PINTO COUNTIES ENEWD ACROSS METROPLEX
ATTM...WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO COVER THOSE
AREAS. GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT IN ITS PATH...RELATIVELY
DISCRETE PALO PINTO COUNTY STORM MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND MOVE
TOWARD SWRN PORTIONS METROPLEX. FARTHER NE...DAMAGING WIND REPORTED
IN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK DURING PAST HOUR FROM BOW ECHO MOVING TOWARD
NERN CORNER OF WW 176 AND SERN PORTION WW 177...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS SEVIER/HOWARD/POLK/MONTGOMERY/PRICE
COUNTIES AR. SVR POTENTIAL FARTHER N IS MORE MRGL...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OZARKS WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PERSISTENT COOL POCKET THAT
IS MINIMIZING THETAE IN INFLOW LAYER. RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY AND
LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN LZK SOUNDING ALSO MAY PORTEND MRGL SVR
POTENTIAL EWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN AR.

PRE-STORM AIR MASS FROM SWRN AR SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SVR BASED ON 00Z FWD RAOB...PAT PROFILER
DATA...VARIOUS VWP...AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. PRIND 0-1 KM SRH
OF AT LEAST 250-300 J/KG WILL CONTINUE OVER REGION BENEATH 40-50 KT
LLJ PRESENTLY OBSERVED. LLJ ALSO SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AFTER
ABOUT 2Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. THIS DECOUPLING WILL BE
GRADUAL ENOUGH TO KEEP EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED AT OR VERY
NEAR SFC AND HELP TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

.EDWARDS.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...

32159502 31879665 31989774 32259840 32559828 32939726
33659570 34319453 35489426 36849439 36819329 34849328
33879298

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 175

WWUS20 KWNS 242357
SEL5
SPC WW 242357
NEZ000-250200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 175 ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NEBRASKA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0569

ACUS11 KWNS 242344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242344
TXZ000-250145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX...ADJACENT RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 179...

VALID 242344Z - 250145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 179 CONTINUES.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE NEAR LINE FROM 10 W FSI...30 E
DYS...25 E SJT...50 NW DRT. LOCALIZED/ERRATIC DRYLINE MOTION IS
POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
BKN BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING A COUPLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
-- IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM BWD AREA SWWD TO NRN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD ALONG DRYLINE THROUGH REMAINDER
VAL VERDE COUNTY INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS NRN COAHUILA...AND MOVE EWD
ACROSS ERN PORTION WW. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
ALL ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPES...45-60 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND 0-1 KM
SRH AROUND 300 J/KG.

ADDITIONAL/SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED S OF 179 INVOF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. VERY INTENSE/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL WITH CYCLIC
MESOCYCLONES MAY BE PRODUCING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL
JUST W OF RIVER IN MEX AND WILL MOVE OVER EAGLE PASS VERY SHORTLY.
PROJECTED DEVIANT/RIGHTWARD MOTION TAKES THIS STORM S AND SE OF
EAGLE PASS REGION...ACROSS SRN PORTIONS MAVERICK COUNTY TOWARD WRN
DIMMIT AND NWRN WEBB COUNTY. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN CINH WITH SEWD EXTENT DOWN
VALLEY...CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY
PAST ROUGHLY DIMMIT/WEBB COUNTY LINE.

.EDWARDS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

29770163 30540089 31829933 32009849 31869569 31119579
30069767 29599830 29479809 29089839 29259877 28609877
28149929 27839964 27909998

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0568

ACUS11 KWNS 242317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242316
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN OK...NW TX.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 173...

VALID 242316Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 173 CONTINUES.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE WRN ALFALFA TO ERN BLAINE TO ERN
TILLMAN COUNTY OK...WRN ARCHER COUNTY TX. EXPECT ONLY
LOCALIZED/ERRATIC DRYLINE MOTION NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS PRIMARY SFC
CYCLONE DIGS SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS TO OK PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE MAY LINGER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...STRONGER ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN N
OF AREA -- ACROSS CENTAL KS. TEMPORAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS
CLOSING FOR ROBUST HEATING BETWEEN OK/NW TX DRYLINE AND ANVIL CANOPY
FROM ERN OK MCS...AMIDST RAIN-COOLED AIR. VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ATTM. PER
COORDINATION W/OUN...AIR MASS E OF I-35 APPEARS TOO STABILIZED AND
NONCONVERGENT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SCHEDULED 1Z
WW EXPIRATION. FARTHER W...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE AT
PRESENT WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE.

AFTER 1Z...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OK
ONCE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING APCH...WITH SFC COLD
FRONT OVERTAKING DRYLINE AND MOVING INTO FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. THEREFORE THIS AREA WILL ME MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL WW LATER THIS EVENING.

.EDWARDS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...

36999942 36999586 33879597 33909797 33479797 33399950
33839949 33909894 34209894 34199856 34519858 34499881
34879880 34889855 36149864 36149885 36579889

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0567

ACUS11 KWNS 242313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242313
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-250015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 172...

VALID 242313Z - 250015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 172 CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTMS FINALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS...NOW
EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF CONCORDIA TO WEST OF HUTCHINSON. SFC
DRYLINE/FRONT IS NOW EAST OF GBD/P28...SO MAIN AREA OF INTEREST THIS
EVENING IS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. SFC WINDS REMAIN
FAVORABLY BACKED FROM SALINA TO WINFIELD...AND GIVEN ONGOING
STORMS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES STILL EXISTS.

WIND PROFILER DATA FROM HILLSBORO KS AND WICHITA/TULSA VWP DATA
SUGGEST DEEP AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES. RECENT REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN
RICE CO CONFIRM THE THREAT...AND ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NECESSARY WEST OF WW 178 FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING.

.TAYLOR.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

36929738 38079853 40059886 40019736 37009582

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 180

WWUS20 KWNS 242249
SEL0
SPC WW 242249
MOZ000-250700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 550
PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST
PLAINS MISSOURI TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...WW 176...WW 177...WW 178...WW 179...

DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MIXED MODE OF SMALL
CLUSTERS/LINES AS WELL AS DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS EVENING. AIR MASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ
THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL INCREASING
AS LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.


..EVANS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 179

WWUS20 KWNS 242100
SEL9
SPC WW 242100
TXZ000-250400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
DEL RIO TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF WACO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...WW 176...WW 177...WW 178...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CNTRL/S TX AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONTINUED SFC
HEATING...RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND ARRIVAL OF SW TX UPR DISTURBANCE
SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WSW/ENE AXIS OVER CNTRL TX ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER IN THE DAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


..CORFIDI

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 178

WWUS20 KWNS 242030
SEL8
SPC WW 242030
KSZ000-MOZ000-250400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF JOPLIN MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...WW 176...WW 177...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN THE NEXT FEWS HOURS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
SFC HEATING/CONVERGENCE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE
HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN DEGREE OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND
OBSERVED/FCST WIND PROFILES...ASSUMING STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0565

ACUS11 KWNS 242010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242010
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-LAZ000-242215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MO SWD INTO AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242010Z - 242215Z

STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED.

WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND INTO CENTRAL AND ERN
AR...AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE APPRECIABLE CLOUD
COVER -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS AR...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUPPORTING
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT...SHEAR REMAINS MODEST -- GENERALLY
LESS THAN 35 KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SPREAD ACROSS AR/SRN MO LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LIMITED
TO MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS -- AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE...THOUGH NEW WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT ATTM.

.GOSS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...

33859327 35869289 39269405 39579340 39649245 38449038
36378970 35109013 33509116 32999205 33099371

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 177

WWUS20 KWNS 242002
SEL7
SPC WW 242002
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-250400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF GROVE
OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...WW 176...

DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NEWD INTO WW THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHERE INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SUGGEST THREAT FOR
HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...DESPITE COMPLEX AND LIKELY
SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED STORM MODES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


..CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241957
SWODY1
SPC AC 241955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS....

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREAS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...INCLUDING PARTS
OF CNTRL/ERN KS AND OK...TX...NW LA...WRN AR...AND SW MO....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

..SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
OCCLUDING. INITIAL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER
SCALE CIRCULATION...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


..SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
IN THE EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
INITIAL IMPULSE...STORMS REMAIN CELLULAR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...NEAR WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF
CYCLONE...NEAR/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW...CELLS HAVE BEEN
QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT...MINIMIZING
TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ROOT IN MOIST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME
INCREASING SURFACE BASED. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED IN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...BUT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT STILL
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE WINDS
ARE BACKED NEAR WARM FRONT.

FARTHER SOUTH...WIND SHIFT...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE HAVE PROVIDED FORCING/FOCUS FOR
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE NEAR/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF DRY LINE...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
ACTIVITY INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS HAVE NOT
STEEPENED STRONGLY...BUT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LINE IS LIKELY. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE.

..CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OKLAHOMA...
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...REMAINS STRONG.
40+ KT 850 SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM MAY AID LARGE SCALE FORCING...AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AND...TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME HIGH WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF BROKEN SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS/WATCHES.

.KERR.. 04/24/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0564

ACUS11 KWNS 241948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241948
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN CO/NWRN KS/SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241948Z - 242145Z

THREAT FOR WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA.

UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER IS CENTERED OVER SERN CO ATTM...WITH
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS/LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED ROUGHLY
W-E OVER THIS AREA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING WWD/NWWD WITHIN
LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL VEERING FROM ELY TO SELY WITH HEIGHT AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS PROVING FAVORABLE FOR TRANSIENT
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- AND OCCASIONAL SMALL/BRIEF TORNADOES.
MARGINAL HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY-GUSTY
WINDS. THE SEVERE/LIMITED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH DEGREE OF THREAT LIKELY WILL NOT REQUIRE TORNADO
WATCH ISSUANCE.

.GOSS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

39670343 40120295 40620163 39590012 38720031 38660133
38710272 38850355

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 176

WWUS20 KWNS 241941
SEL6
SPC WW 241941
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CORSICANA TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY BUILD DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE
INTO WW THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES E FROM CNTRL TX.
STRENGTHENING/ VEERING WIND PROFILES AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/HIGH
WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0563

ACUS11 KWNS 241903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241903
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241903Z - 242030Z

..AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS...

LONG RADAR LOOPS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY
WAVE...NOTED ON COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DATA THIS MORNING EXITING ERN
OKLAHOMA. THAT WAVE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
CNTRL MO THIS AFTN. THE AREA BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH IS ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN KS INTO WRN MO...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF GRAVITY
WAVE IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONVECTION.

THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA SUGGESTS THAT WEAK CAPPING STILL
EXISTED...BUT THAT SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S COMBINED WITH INCREASING
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS POCKETS OF CLEARING WITHIN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD...WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR GREATER HEATING TO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTN. EXPECTED
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

.TAYLOR.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...

36739348 37249604 39899713 40049454 39879337 38789309
37269268

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 175

WWUS20 KWNS 241847
SEL5
SPC WW 241847
NEZ000-250200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BEATRICE NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW 174...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND POSSIBLY COVERAGE LATER
TODAY...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 20030.


..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0562

ACUS11 KWNS 241835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241835
NEZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241835Z - 241930Z

..POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTN...

SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF HAYS KS TO CONCORDIA TO
NORTH OF KANSAS CITY...SEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG.
THUS FAR...REPORTS OF HAIL HAVE BEEN AROUND 1 INCH OR LOWER.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR IS ADVECTED FROM THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTN.

IT APPEARS THAT A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.TAYLOR.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

40039767 40160097 41050108 41769952 41419748 40919603
40079561

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0561

ACUS11 KWNS 241814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241813
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY/NRN PORTIONS OF WRN AND
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241813Z - 241945Z

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS NEAR WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION FOR LIMITED TORNADO THREAT.

LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS A SLOW INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA...S OF WARM FRONT WHICH IS NOW LOCATED JUST N OF
THE OH RIVER. DAYTIME HEATING OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...AND THUS EXPECT A
SLOW/CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THIS REGION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO
BE A RELATIVE LACK OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP
SEVERE THREAT RELATIVELY LOW IN GENERAL. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WHILE WW IS NOT IMMINENT...AN INCREASE IN
STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT COULD REQUIRE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

.GOSS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

38019050 37648877 37648708 38008629 37358528 36608522
35958682 36078980 36629081

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0560

ACUS11 KWNS 241741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241740
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241740Z - 241945Z

WE ARE MONITORING THE ENVIRONMENT E OF WW 172 AND 174 FOR EVOLVING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

AREA OF EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF TX
CONTINUES TO HINDER DESTABILIZATION...DESPITE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE E OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE --
ALONG ERN EDGE OF WW 174...ALONG WRN FRINGE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER.

WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...LATEST FORT WORTH TX
AND GRANGER/WACO TX WSR-88D VWPS INDICATE SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT ATTM FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70/LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALSO
FAVORABLE...THREAT FOR TORNADOES/SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION -- WHICH MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

.GOSS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

31099788 31309840 34679616 35759602 35939440 34319400
32139577 31369662

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241721
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
SERN PLAINS EWD THRU THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL GULF
STATES....

..SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AND...MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE INTO WEDNESDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF A GENERALLY ZONAL
NORTHERN STREAM EXTENDING ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPSTREAM PATTERN
..FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO PACIFIC COASTAL AREAL AREAS...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...OUT OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
OCCLUDED AND IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT SURGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT
LEAST ONE...IF NOT A COUPLE...OF COOL SURGES WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE...MODELS APPEAR TO
SUGGEST...WILL EXTEND FROM POINT OF OCCLUSION OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHWARD TOWARD UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONT...AND SOUTH
OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND
ON INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MOIST
WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO THE WEST...UNTIL MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

..MID/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS...
POSSIBILITY OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...PERHAPS CONVECTION...AND
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS /AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY/ IN THE
WARM SECTOR ARE AMONG FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL LAPSE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL BECOME WEAK...AND THIS WILL LIMIT
CAPE. PEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-70+
KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...
PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF LEAD WEAK COOL SURGE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION... BUT
IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE BULK OF THE DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF INITIAL LEAD COOL SURGE...WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS INTENSIFYING ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS LINE...AND PERHAPS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS EASTWARD.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
RE-INTENSIFY SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT
PRIOR TO ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. IF/WHEN THIS DOES
OCCUR...ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
TORNADIC POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

.KERR.. 04/24/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241702
SWODY1
SPC AC 241700

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN KS...SWRN
MO...CENTRAL AND ERN OK...WRN AR AND NRN...CENTRAL AND SWRN TX....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MDT RISK AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY....

..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST IR/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN
CO THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ATTENDANT LOW OVER THE SRN
BORDER OF CO/KS WITH DRYLINE FEATURE THAT EXTENDS SEWD INTO NWRN OK
THEN SWD ACROSS SWRN OK/NWRN TX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OVER THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE. ALSO...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD INTO N CENTRAL
KS THEN EWD/SEWD THRU NWRN INTO E CENTRAL MO.

MODELS TAKE THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ESEWD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT OVER SWRN KS/NWRN OK REFOCUSING THE SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN
OK. THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAX NOW MOVING INTO S CENTRAL NM. IT IS THIS
FEATURE THAT THE MODELS FOCUS STRONG FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
MOVING IT NEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIONS AT
THIS TIME ARE THAT THIS FORCING MAY PRODUCE AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO NRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER A SMALL PORTION OF N
CENTRAL KS...BUT ALSO OVER SWRN INTO NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST
OFF THE DRYLINE NEAR THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE
IS BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. OF COURSE...GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KT EXTENDS
FROM EXTREME SRN TX NWD THRU NERN KS WITH GENERALLY SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 60-70 KT ACROSS W TX. THUS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50 KT ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS.

QUESTION WITH THE MODELS RIGHT NOW IS THE ANALYSIS THAT THERE IS A
MERIDIONAL JET STREAK E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WITH
A DEEPENING FEATURE THAT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT JUST S OF E TOWARDS
NWRN OK BY 25/00Z. ALL THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...BRING A
MID LEVEL JET STREAK NEWD INTO NWRN TX THIS EVENING PLACING THE EXIT
REGION OVER THIS REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AND THE WRN
EDGES OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES
ABOUT...THEN THE SCENARIO WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
FROM CENTRAL OK SWD AND SWWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.

THEREFORE...AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO SWRN KS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ENEWD INTO S CENTRAL OK/ N CENTRAL TX
INTENSIFYING STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
MAY ALREADY BE LINEAR WITH A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS OK INTO NWRN TX AND WILL SPREAD EWD THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES.

.MCCARTHY/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 174

WWUS20 KWNS 241651
SEL4
SPC WW 241651
TXZ000-250100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG MERGING PACIFIC
FRONT/DRY LINE IN WRN PART OF WW...WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF FAR W TX UPR DISTURBANCE. BANDS OF
SEMI-DISCRETE...FAST- MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES AS HEATING AND
RICH MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUE ACROSS AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


..CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

448
WOUS40 KWNS 241641
PWOSPC
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY AN 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A
PACIFIC FRONT SEPARATING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST AND DRIER
AIR TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO STALL/BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
WESTERN OR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...LIKELY JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND 70S FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS.
THESE VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH EASTERN PARTS OF
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND TEXAS...EVENTUALLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..TAYLOR/MCCARTHY/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0559

ACUS11 KWNS 241628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241628
TXZ000-OKZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND INTO CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241628Z - 241830Z

STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF W CENTRAL
TX. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

STORMS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY ATTM ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF W CENTRAL TX INVOF ABILENE...WHERE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/LIFT THE
CAPPING INVERSION. THOUGH FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER IS INDICATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING AHEAD OF FRONT
HAS ALLOWED HEATING OF THE ALREADY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PUSHING
MEAN-LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG IN A NARROW NNE-SSW AXIS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

LATEST VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW JUST W OF FRONT /INDICATED
BY JAYTON TX PROFILER/ EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH. THUS -- EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION UPON
INITIATION...ACCOMPANIED BY ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION -- WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 AHEAD OF FRONT AND SURFACE FLOW JUST E OF S AHEAD OF
FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADOES ALSO IS
INCREASING.

.GOSS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

30660132 32670019 34479934 34059690 32429708 30919922
30670009

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 173

WWUS20 KWNS 241624
SEL3
SPC WW 241624
OKZ000-TXZ000-250100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF PONCA
CITY OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG
MERGING PACIFIC FRONT/DRY LINE. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE. BUT COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR WITH CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF FAR
W TX UPR DISTURBANCE AND QUALITY MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST HIGH
LIKELIHOOD FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


..CORFIDI

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 172

WWUS20 KWNS 241553
SEL2
SPC WW 241553
KSZ000-250000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1050 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILL
CITY KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SFC-BASED TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG MERGING PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE NOW IN CNTRL KS.
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO
SHORT NNE/SSW ORIENTED BANDS GIVEN CURRENT WIND PROFILES SHOWING
BACK-VEER PATTERNS IN THE VERTICAL. GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE
INFLOW...INCREASING SFC HEATING AND STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR...AN
ATTENDANT THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0558

ACUS11 KWNS 241504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241504
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-241700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KS...WRN AND CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241504Z - 241700Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS -- LIKELY FIRST IN KS AND THEN SWD INTO OK.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
SWRN KS/WRN OK. HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE...WHICH
WILL PUSH MEAN-LAYER CAPE INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE GIVEN
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE /LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS/.

WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MERIDIONAL...STRENGTH OF FLOW WILL YIELD DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. AS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE AND INSTABILITY CREEPS
UPWARD...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME --
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES.

.GOSS.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

38950200 39740011 39639743 37859685 35699709 34029791
34199965 36479922 37640067 37880197

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0557

ACUS11 KWNS 241230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241229
TXZ000-241400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO CONCHO VALLEY OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241229Z - 241400Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS ONGOING STORMS
INTENSIFY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR WIND
SHIFT LINE OVER GLASSCOCK...REAGAN AND UPTON COUNTIES IN THE ERN
PERMIAN BASIN. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ALREADY THIS MORNING BASED ON 12Z DRT SOUNDING WITH AN
MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. A WELL DEFINED CAP WAS OBSERVED ABOVE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 800 MB...AND THIS MAY TEND TO SLOW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY.

HOWEVER...AS PACIFIC COLD FRONT /EXTENDING FROM CNTRL BORDEN TO NEAR
MAF TO WARD COUNTY AS OF 1215Z/ OVERTAKES PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN CAP REMOVAL...
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN 09Z RUC AND 06Z GFS GUIDANCE. LINEAR FORCING ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT MODE SHOULD TEND TOWARD
LINEAR...THOUGH ALREADY SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR DOES
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.MEAD.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

30600249 30860254 31200236 31570195 31920157 32040116
32000087 31680054 31060073 30600096 30360154

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241210
SWODY1
SPC AC 241208

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/WRN MO SWD THRU OK/WRN
AR TO CENTRAL TX...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS...LOWER OH
VALLEYS....

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING TONIGHT...

..SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING SLOWLY EWD VICINITY SRN CO/NM BORDER
TODAY...INTO OK PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SERN
CO MOVES TO NWRN OK BY 12Z WED. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW
NEWD TO SRN NEB BORDER THEN EWD TO NRN MO. DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT
CURRENTLY CROSSING TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK EXPECTED TO EXTEND N/S
JUST W OF I-35 CORRIDOR SRN KS TO N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST LITTLE OR JUST VERY SLOW FURTHER EWD MOVEMENT THIS EVENING.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NOW PREVAILS E AND S OF THESE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS ROTATING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL
OCCUR. HOWEVER THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT IS
LOCATED THUS ATTM WILL CONTINUE WITH A RATHER LARGE MDT RISK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SPEED MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING NEWD
AROUND UPR LOW ACROSS NERN NM WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE BOTH VERTICAL
MOTION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS WRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOTH VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
NRN KS AND THE NRN EXTENSION OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WRN KS. WITH
MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE STORMS WORK EWD ACROSS
KS THRU THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES ALSO SHOULD
INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT HAS SURGED EWD INTO TX PANHANDLE AND THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE PRIOR TO WHEN SURFACE
INITIATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES
ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SRN KS SWD INTO NCENTRAL TX
VICINITY OF DRY LINE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AMOUNT OF STORM
COVERAGE...BUT ANY STORM SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR ALONG
WITH TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. STORMS COULD THEN MOVE AWAY
FROM DRY LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ERN OK/KS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOTED ON WV IMAGERY TRACKING ENEWD FROM
MEX COULD AID CONVECTIVE RELEASE ACROSS N TX BY THIS AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. AIR MASS THIS AREA CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPER
MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF
30KT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT SUGGESTS ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY BECOME A SUPERCELL WITH TORNADO AND
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENT WILL THEN SUPPORT LONG LIVED
STORMS AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS TX INTO SRN AR GIVEN THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. AGAIN STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.


ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM SWD ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON SWD TO SCENTRAL TX WHERE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE
VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORM.

OVERNIGHT ALL MODELS HAVE A STRONG...CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINER MCS ACROSS ERN TX WHICH IMPLIES ORGANIZED
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH THE TORNADO THREAT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MUCH OF NIGHT SPREADING EWD TOWARD LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY.

ATTM WILL NOT UPGRADE ANY ONE OF THE AREAS DISCUSSED DUE TO
CONFLICTING MODEL CONVECTIVE SIGNALS...BUT THE LARGE SCALE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE DAY AND
LATER OUTLOOKS DURING THE DAY MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER IDENTIFY WHERE
AN UPGRADE COULD BE SUPPORTED.

.HALES/JEWELL.. 04/24/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 170

WWUS20 KWNS 241103
SEL0
SPC WW 241103
KSZ000-NEZ000-241100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
603 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 170 ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
NEBRASKA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0556

ACUS11 KWNS 241003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241003
KSZ000-NEZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB / N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...

VALID 241003Z - 241130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170
CONTINUES.

OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS
REMAINING PORTION OF WW AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. WW 170 WILL LIKELY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11Z.

AS OF 0950Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
NEB...DRIVEN LARGELY BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
TO THE N OF WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS
BORDER SEWD INTO W-CNTRL MO. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN MASKED BY A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE COLD POOL EMANATING FROM MORE
INTENSE TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER S-CNTRL NEB INVOF OF EAR.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE
STORMS ARE ELEVATED WITHIN NRN EDGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS EVEN LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH S-CNTRL NEB.

GIVEN THAT PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER WRN INTO CNTRL KS THROUGH MID MORNING...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT E INTO SERN NEB.

.MEAD.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

40739758 39009778 38930006 40200036 41140038 41129796

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

918
WOUS40 KWNS 240935
PWOSPC
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-241730-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG...UPPER LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING EAST THROUGH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE
WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TODAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...REACHING THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH EASTERN PARTS OF
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND TEXAS...EVENTUALLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..MEAD.. 04/24/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240901
SWOD48
SPC AC 240900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE START OF THE DAY 4 WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE NERN U.S AND
MID ATLANTIC...THOUGH AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST MAINLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMPLITUDE OF SYSTEM
AND PROBABLE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE A
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES MODELS INDICATE A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS TX.
HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DEGREE
OF MOISTURE RETURN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND DAY 4 PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A RISK AREA.

.DIAL.. 04/24/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 171

WWUS20 KWNS 240817
SEL1
SPC WW 240817
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
317 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171 ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

COLORADO
KANSAS
NEBRASKA

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240737
SWODY3
SPC AC 240735

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
THURSDAY. AS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND EXTEND FROM THE OH
VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SWRN GULF COAST REGION
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC.

..SERN U.S. THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND SHIFT EWD AND NEWD THROUGH THE SERN
STATES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT COULD BE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS OR OH
VALLEY SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY IN DRY SLOT REGION ALONG COLD FRONT
AND CLOSER TO UPPER LOW CENTER. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
EXIST AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE MORE PROBABLE IN THESE REGIONS.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DIAL.. 04/24/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0555

ACUS11 KWNS 240637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240637
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN CO / NWRN KS / FAR SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 171...

VALID 240637Z - 240800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 171 CONTINUES.

THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE
THROUGH 09-10Z FROM W-E ACROSS WW 171 AREA. PRIOR TO THIS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE NAMELY OVER HITCHCOCK AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES IN SWRN NEB.

AS OF 0620Z...GLD RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN EVOLVING QUASI-LINEAR
MCS FROM PERKINS AND CHASE COUNTIES IN SWRN NEB TO YUMA AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES IN NERN CO...IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF AN ORGANIZED
COLD POOL SURGING ESEWD AT 20-25 KT. DOWNSTREAM...SUPERCELL STORMS
ARE STILL PRESENT OVER HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES IN SWRN NEB
VERY NEAR SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THESE TWO CELLS THROUGH 08Z. THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY WEAKEN OR TEND
TO BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION N OF WARM FRONT...OR
BE OVERTAKEN BY EVOLVING MCS APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH ACROSS WW AREA BY 09-10Z
AS MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH NWRN KS/SWRN
NEB.

.MEAD.. 04/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

40540309 40860134 40529995 39809931 38959952 38870186
38800331

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240610
SWODY1
SPC AC 240609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
KANSAS...CENTRAL AND ERN OKLAHOMA...NRN AND NERN TEXAS...PARTS OF
WRN MISSOURI AND FAR WRN ARKANSAS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS...

..OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /A FEW
STRONG/...VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
TO APPEAR LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
00Z NAM/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW FROM CO/NM INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN DURING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ESEWD FROM SERN CO TO ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NRN OK BORDER REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARM FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING EWD FROM SURFACE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO SRN MO AND LOWER OH VALLEY WILL RETREAT STEADILY NWD...
STRETCHING FROM NRN KS EWD THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL IL AND SRN IND
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT/MIX RAPIDLY NE AND E TO VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SRN KS SWD ALONG
OR JUST W OF I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK/N TX AND THEN EXTEND SWWD TO NEAR
DRT BY MID AFTERNOON.

..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE WARM
SECTOR ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE NWD WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG/E OF DRY LINE.

AT 12Z TODAY...AN AREA OF ELEVATED...AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE... TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME NEAR
AND N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITHIN CONTINUED ZONE OF STRONG WAA NEAR AND N OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY IN
THE DAY OVER PARTS OF WRN INTO CNTRL KS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACTS ON A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. DESPITE BEING EARLY IN THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS AS DRYLINE SURGES
NEWD/EWD...AND ALSO ALONG WARM FRONT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/ AND VERY
LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL.

FARTHER S...MODELS ARE NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF TSTM
INITIATION SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL OK/N TX...GIVEN STRONGER
CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. DESPITE THIS INCONSISTENCY...PATTERN
RECOGNITION SHOWING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WITHIN MOISTENING AIR MASS SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR SWD ALONG DRY LINE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE NAM SUGGEST
TSTM INITIATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUST AFTER 00Z. DESPITE THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALSO PRODUCING VERY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SSWWD
ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL/SWRN TX TO NEAR DRT.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST EWD INTO ERN
KS/ERN OK INTO WRN MO/AR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS EWD. MEANWHILE...AS SRN EXTENT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SPREADS EWD THROUGH SRN/SERN OK AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN TX
TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX AND ERN/S CENTRAL TX.

..LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS IN THE OH VALLEY...
SSWLY LLJ...ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX INTO SRN OK...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EWD RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS
TODAY. WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO TEMPER THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION...DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER-MID
60S. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT FROM
SRN MO TO WRN KY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTING PRIMARILY MULTICELLS...THOUGH A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

.PETERS.. 04/24/2007

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