SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241628
TXZ000-OKZ000-241830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND INTO CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241628Z - 241830Z
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF W CENTRAL
TX. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
STORMS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY ATTM ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF W CENTRAL TX INVOF ABILENE...WHERE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/LIFT THE
CAPPING INVERSION. THOUGH FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER IS INDICATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING AHEAD OF FRONT
HAS ALLOWED HEATING OF THE ALREADY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...PUSHING
MEAN-LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG IN A NARROW NNE-SSW AXIS ACROSS
THIS REGION.
LATEST VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW JUST W OF FRONT /INDICATED
BY JAYTON TX PROFILER/ EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH. THUS -- EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION UPON
INITIATION...ACCOMPANIED BY ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION -- WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 AHEAD OF FRONT AND SURFACE FLOW JUST E OF S AHEAD OF
FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADOES ALSO IS
INCREASING.
.GOSS.. 04/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
30660132 32670019 34479934 34059690 32429708 30919922
30670009
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