KARX [080322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KARX 080322
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1022 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E EDGEWOOD 42.65N 91.36W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER ON THE ROADWAY...HIGHWAY 3 AT HIGHWAY C7X /HILTON
RD/. C7X BETWEEN GARBER AND EDGEWOOD HAS WATER OVER IT AS
WELL.

0657 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E EDGEWOOD 42.65N 91.36W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA AMATEUR RADIO

WATER OVER HIGHWAY 3 AT HIGHWAY C7X /HILTON ROAD/. ROAD
CLOSED.

0657 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S GARBER 42.69N 91.26W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ELK CREEK COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS...WITH FLOODING ON IOWA
AVENUE.

0726 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE LITTLEPORT 42.72N 91.33W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA AMATEUR RADIO

WATER OVER THE ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF HARVEST ROAD AND
HIGHWAY C5X /GLACIER ROAD/. THIS IS FROM BEAR CREEK. BEAR
CREEK ALSO REPORTED TO BE OUT OF ITS BANKS WITH EXTENSIVE
LOWLAND FLOODING.

0740 PM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 42.65N 91.40W
10/07/2007 M5.21 INCH CLAYTON IA CO-OP OBSERVER

SINCE 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

0745 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N EDGEWOOD 42.68N 91.40W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA CO-OP OBSERVER

BEAR CREEK IS FLOODING OVER FAUCET ROAD.

&&

$$

MW

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KFGF [080103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFGF 080103
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
803 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1252 AM HAIL 6 NNE FINLEY 47.59N 97.79W
10/07/2007 E0.88 INCH STEELE ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0104 AM HAIL NORTHWOOD 47.74N 97.57W
10/07/2007 E1.00 INCH GRAND FORKS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL...HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS
TO 50 MPH.

0120 AM HAIL 6 SSE EMERADO 47.84N 97.31W
10/07/2007 E0.88 INCH GRAND FORKS ND PUBLIC

0410 AM HAIL PONEMAH 48.02N 94.91W
10/07/2007 E1.75 INCH BELTRAMI MN PUBLIC

0430 AM HAIL WASKISH 48.16N 94.51W
10/07/2007 E0.88 INCH BELTRAMI MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

GGUST

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080102
SWODY1
SPC AC 080059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO WRN OK/THE TX PNHDL...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM -- BOTH WITHIN ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR -- WHERE GENERALLY 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED.

STRONGER FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SHEAR ATOP THE WARM SECTOR
RELATIVELY WEAK -- AND ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL WARM-SECTOR INSTABILITY AND A
DIURNALLY-STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD INDICATE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

.GOSS.. 10/08/2007

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KARX [080051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 080051
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
751 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N EDGEWOOD 42.68N 91.40W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA CO-OP OBSERVER

BEAR CREEK IS FLOODING OVER FAUCET ROAD.

&&

$$

MW

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KARX [080048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 080048
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
748 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 42.65N 91.40W
10/07/2007 M5.21 INCH CLAYTON IA CO-OP OBSERVER

SINCE 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

MW

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KDVN [080038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 080038
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
738 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM FLASH FLOOD MANCHESTER 42.49N 91.46W
10/07/2007 DELAWARE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL 6 INCH RAINFALL REPORTS IN TOWN. REPORTS OF
BASEMENT AND STREET FLOODING. THERE IS SOME GRAVEL ROAD
DAMAGE IN THE SURROUNDING COUNTY AREAS.

&&

$$

LE

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KARX [080031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 080031
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
731 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0726 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE LITTLEPORT 42.72N 91.33W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA AMATEUR RADIO

WATER OVER THE ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF HARVEST ROAD AND
HIGHWAY C5X /GLACIER ROAD/. THIS IS FROM BEAR CREEK. BEAR
CREEK ALSO REPORTED TO BE OUT OF ITS BANKS WITH EXTENSIVE
LOWLAND FLOODING.

&&

$$

MW

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KARX [080021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 080021
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
721 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E EDGEWOOD 42.65N 91.36W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER ON THE ROADWAY...HIGHWAY 3 AT HIGHWAY C7X /HILTON
RD/. C7X BETWEEN GARBER AND EDGEWOOD HAS WATER OVER IT AS
WELL.

0657 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E EDGEWOOD 42.65N 91.36W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA AMATEUR RADIO

WATER OVER HIGHWAY 3 AT HIGHWAY C7X /HILTON ROAD/. ROAD
CLOSED.

0657 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S GARBER 42.69N 91.26W
10/07/2007 CLAYTON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ELK CREEK COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS...WITH FLOODING ON IOWA
AVENUE.

&&

$$

MW

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KDVN [072309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 072309
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0556 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 S MANCHESTER 42.47N 91.46W
10/07/2007 M4.30 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE 330 P.M.

&&

$$

MIKEZ

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KDVN [072240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 072240
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
540 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0511 PM FLOOD MANCHESTER 42.49N 91.46W
10/07/2007 DELAWARE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF CARS UNDER WATER AND SOME HOUSE FLOODING.

&&

$$

MIKEZ

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KDVN [072239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 072239
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
539 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0434 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE MANCHESTER 42.46N 91.43W
10/07/2007 E3.00 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN PAST HOUR. ALSO
REPORTS A LOT OF STREET FLOODING.

&&

$$

MIKEZ

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KDVN [072238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 072238
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
538 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0426 PM FLASH FLOOD MANCHESTER 42.49N 91.46W
10/07/2007 DELAWARE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER OUT OF DITCHES AND OVER MANY AREA ROADS.

&&

$$

MIKEZ

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KDVN [072237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 072237
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM HEAVY RAIN MANCHESTER 42.49N 91.46W
10/07/2007 E3.00 INCH DELAWARE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

ESTIMATED 2-3 INCH RAINFALL IN PAST 45 MINUTE. STREETS
RUNNUNG FULL OF WATER.

&&

$$

MIKEZ

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KJAX [072156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 072156
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW UNF 30.25N 81.52W
10/06/2007 M3.55 INCH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVEN DAY RAINFALL TOTAL 17.95 INCHES.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KABR [072154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KABR 072154
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
454 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM HAIL 8 S AKASKA 45.22N 100.12W
10/06/2007 E0.88 INCH POTTER SD PUBLIC

0850 PM HAIL 21 N GETTYSBURG 45.31N 99.95W
10/06/2007 E1.00 INCH WALWORTH SD PUBLIC

0905 PM HAIL SELBY 45.50N 100.03W
10/06/2007 E1.75 INCH WALWORTH SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM HAIL MOUND CITY 45.73N 100.07W
10/06/2007 E0.88 INCH CAMPBELL SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

AP

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KJAX [072150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 072150
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
550 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW UNF 30.25N 81.52W
10/06/2007 M3.55 INCH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVEN DAY RAINFALL TOTAL 17.95 INCHES.

&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [072142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 072142
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
541 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW UNF 30.25N 81.52W
10/06/2007 M3.55 INCH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

SINCE MIDNIGHT. 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTAL 17.95 INCHES.

&&

$$

PP

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KJAX [072024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 072024
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
424 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM RIP CURRENTS FERNANDINA BEACH 30.66N 81.45W
10/07/2007 NASSAU FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

AN OCEAN RESCUE OFFICIAL REPORTED RIP CURRENTS ALL DAY
TODAY.

&&

$$

ARS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071956
SWODY1
SPC AC 071954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MO VALLEY...

EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR MSP AND THEN MORE SWD TO ALONG
THE NEB/IA BORDER AND THEN INTO CNTRL KS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI SWD INTO WRN/CNTRL IA WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHICH ARE LARGELY
CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE W/SW OF REGION. AS SUCH...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND
BROAD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS
MAINTAINING ONGOING STORMS OVER MN/IA WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING NEAR FRONT AND FARTHER E IN
WARM SECTOR OVER WI WHERE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KT OF DEEP...SWLY SHEAR ACROSS WARM
SECTOR. THIS MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

AS OF 19Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR CNK TO S OF DDC TO
N OF TCC WITH RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A STEADY SEWD MOTION
OF THIS FEATURE. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPERIENCING
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER HEATING TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FROM
THE MID MO VALLEY NWD WITH TEMPERATURES COMMONLY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F. 12Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER THIS HEATING ALONG WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /NAMELY E OF THE U.S. 183 CORRIDOR/
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG.

HERE TOO...RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT AND FARTHER E IN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF KS/OK. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ENEWD
THROUGH NM IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF TSTMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG OR PERHAPS IN IMMEDIATE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM THE TX PNHDL NEWD INTO CNTRL KS. A FEW
OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.MEAD.. 10/07/2007

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KJAX [071956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 071956
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
356 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM RIP CURRENTS JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
10/07/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LIFEGUARD RESCUE OFFICIAL REPORTED DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALL DAY TODAY AND OBSERVED SURF OF 3 TO 4 FEET.

&&

$$

ARS

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KJAX [071953]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 071953
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM RIP CURRENTS JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
10/06/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LIFEGUARD RESCUE OFFICIAL REPORTED 4 RIP CURRENT RESCUES.

&&

$$

ARS

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KKEY [071640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 071640
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1239 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/07/2007 E51 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 44 KNOTS WAS MEASURED AT SAND
KEY LIGHT.

&&

$$

AALBANES

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KFGF [071628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 071628
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 AM HAIL PONEMAH 48.02N 94.91W
10/07/2007 E1.75 INCH BELTRAMI MN PUBLIC

0430 AM HAIL WASKISH 48.16N 94.51W
10/07/2007 E0.88 INCH BELTRAMI MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

VGODON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071619
SWODY2
SPC AC 071618

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS
IT LIFTS NEWD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED WAVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER NRN MN INTO WRN ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD
FRONT INITIALLY FROM THIS LOW SWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN
PLAINS WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. FARTHER E...BAROCLINIC
ZONE INITIALLY EXHIBITING WARM FRONTAL PROPERTIES OVER THE NERN
STATES IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

..UPPER GREAT LAKES...

AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
WITH MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING ALONG FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG FRONT OWING TO PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND WEAK CAPPING...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONGEST DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LAG SYSTEM WARM SECTOR TO THE W...WITH
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE...CHARACTERIZED
BY 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..NORTHEAST...

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT ACROSS GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...BUT WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING MLCAPES TO AOB 1000 J/KG. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE POSITION COUPLED WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER-LEVELS WITH 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT...THEREFORE ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

.MEAD.. 10/07/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071614
SWODY1
SPC AC 071612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PLAINS STATES...
LARGE...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...WHILE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NM ROUNDS BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND EMERGES INTO KS/OK/TX. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING...NOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST IA TO NEAR DDC...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NM. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS SUPPRESSED WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...MORNING RAOBS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
CAP WILL IS WEAKENING TODAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE FIRST ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG
HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ATOP SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
KS AND LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING. ELEVATED CAPE
AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. ALSO...STORMS IMMEDIATELY ON COLD SIDE OF BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TX/OK INTO
IA/MN/WI. THIS REGION MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH STRONGER CELLS OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS PLUME FROM IA INTO MN/WI.

DESPITE INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION COMPARED TO PAST FEW
DAYS...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES REMAINS
LIMITED AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

.HART/JEWELL.. 10/07/2007

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KCYS [071359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 071359
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
759 AM MDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM SNOW 6 NW CENTENNIAL 41.36N 106.19W
10/07/2007 E5.0 INCH ALBANY WY CO-OP OBSERVER

4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND STILL SNOWING.

0752 AM SNOW 16 SE SARATOGA 41.29N 106.59W
10/07/2007 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

AAH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071236
SWODY1
SPC AC 071233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER WY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD TO THE
WRN DAKOTAS AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NEWD AROUND THE
SERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THOUGH THE FRONT MAY SLOW TODAY
BEFORE ACCELERATING EWD/SEWD MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF MN/WI.
THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ONGOING ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME
AND LARGELY POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/SURFACE ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL
RATHER MEDIOCRE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GENERALLY AOB 6.5 C/KM/ IN
THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AND ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE...ALONG WITH A
PLUME OF TROPICAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM E TX/OK NNEWD TO
IA/SRN MN. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME TODAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE HEATING...AND MLCAPE VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1000-1500
J/KG. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM
W TX INTO CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER E.
ADDITIONALLY... LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY...WHILE THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR E OF THE COLD FRONT...THUS THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

.THOMPSON/BRIGHT.. 10/07/2007

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KKEY [071131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 071131
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
730 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
10/07/2007 M40 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS AT THE
SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT 649 AM EDT.

&&

$$

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KLKN [070831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KLKN 070831
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
130 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 1 SE ELKO 40.83N 115.75W
10/05/2007 M0.3 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5070 FEET MSL...MEASURED ON SOUTHEAST SIDE OF ELKO

0900 AM SNOW 4 SE ELKO 40.80N 115.71W
10/05/2007 M1.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5800 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT ELKO SUMMIT ON LAMOILLE
HIGHWAY BETWEEN ELKO AND SPRING CREEK

0100 PM SNOW N LAMOILLE 40.74N 115.49W
10/05/2007 M5.5 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

5750 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT LOIN2 COOP

0200 PM SNOW 11 ENE LEE 40.60N 115.37W
10/05/2007 M3.5 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

8760 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT ROADS END IN LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM SNOW 8 SSE LAMOILLE 40.65N 115.41W
10/05/2007 M5.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

7560 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT THOMAS CANYON CAMPGROUND IN
LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S LAMOILLE 40.72N 115.49W
10/05/2007 M8.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5920 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT INTERSECTION OF SR-227 AND
LAMOILLE CANYON ROAD

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 S LAMOILLE 40.69N 115.48W
10/05/2007 M9.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

6300 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT POWER HOUSE PICNIC AREA AT
THE ENTRANCE TO LAMOILLE CANYON

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSE LAMOILLE 40.73N 115.48W
10/05/2007 M7.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5880 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT PARK ON SR-227 NEAR CENTER OF
LAMOILLE

0305 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N RYNDON 40.98N 115.61W
10/05/2007 M0.46 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

0.46 INCHES OF RAIN AND 1/4 INCH OF SNOW FELL AT ELBURZ.

0305 PM SNOW 6 ESE RYNDON 40.93N 115.50W
10/05/2007 E0.3 INCH ELKO NV TRAINED SPOTTER

5205 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY SPOTTER IN ELBURZ

0330 PM SNOW 5 W LAMOILLE 40.76N 115.58W
10/05/2007 M2.5 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5480 FEET MSL...MEASURED NEAR LOWER LAMOILLE ROAD IN
SPRING CREEK

0500 PM SNOW 2 NNE ELKO 40.86N 115.74W
10/05/2007 M0.9 INCH ELKO NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

5235 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT WFO ELKO...SNOW MELTED ALMOST
CONTINUOUSLY AS IT FELL

1159 PM SNOW 8 NW GIBBS RANCH 41.66N 115.32W
10/05/2007 E1.9 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7200 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY DRAW CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 17 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.75N 117.53W
10/05/2007 E4.5 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

6700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BUCKSKIN LOWER SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 7 NNW CLOVER VALLEY 40.94N 115.10W
10/05/2007 E2.1 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7900 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY HOLE-IN-MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 SW WILDHORSE 41.53N 116.01W
10/05/2007 E8.3 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8420 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY JACKS PEAK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 12 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.67N 117.57W
10/05/2007 E4.1 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

7800 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY GRANITE PEAK SNOTEL

0745 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 N ELY 39.26N 114.86W
10/06/2007 E6.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

6420 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY SPOTTER NEAR HOSPITAL

0745 AM SNOW 1 N LUND 38.87N 115.02W
10/06/2007 M1.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

5546 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT LUNN2 COOP

0745 AM HEAVY SNOW NE MCGILL 39.40N 114.78W
10/06/2007 M7.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

6270 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT MCGN2 COOP

0745 AM SNOW 18 WNW RUTH 39.33N 115.32W
10/06/2007 M2.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

6539 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT MOMN2 COOP

0745 AM SNOW N RUTH 39.28N 114.99W
10/06/2007 M3.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

6858 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT RTHN2 COOP

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSE SPRING CREEK 40.70N 115.58W
10/06/2007 M9.0 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

5630 FEET MSL...MEASURED NEAR THE HORSE PALACE

0845 AM SNOW 20 WSW KINGSTON 39.06N 117.41W
10/06/2007 M2.1 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

6413 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT RRRN2 COOP

0845 AM SNOW N GIBBS RANCH 41.57N 115.22W
10/06/2007 M0.7 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

6000 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT GIBN2 COOP

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 NNW RUBY LAKE 40.28N 115.53W
10/06/2007 E8.2 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8500 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY CORRAL CANYON SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 6 NNE CHARLESTON 41.74N 115.47W
10/06/2007 E3.1 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY SEVENTYSIX CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 14 SW WILDHORSE 41.55N 116.01W
10/06/2007 E1.9 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7250 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY JACK CREEK UPPER SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 ESE JIGGS 40.38N 115.53W
10/06/2007 E10.8 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8000 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY GREEN MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 N RUBY VALLEY 40.89N 115.20W
10/06/2007 E12.7 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY DORSEY BASIN SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 9 SSW ELY 39.13N 114.96W
10/06/2007 E2.4 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

9200 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY WARD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 SE LAMOILLE 40.65N 115.38W
10/06/2007 E14.6 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LAMOILLE NUMBER 3 SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 ESE MCGILL 39.32N 114.62W
10/06/2007 E10.2 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

9100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BERRY CREEK SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 16 WSW CRESCENT VALLEY 40.36N 116.86W
10/06/2007 E2.4 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

7400 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LEWIS PEAK SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
10/06/2007 E9.4 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

8700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BIG CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL

1159 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 E JARBIDGE 41.87N 115.25W
10/06/2007 E10.2 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8330 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY POLE CREEK R.S. SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 5 SW MOUNTAIN CITY 41.78N 116.03W
10/06/2007 E2.3 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

6700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY LAUREL DRAW SNOTEL

1159 PM SNOW 7 W MOUNTAIN CITY 41.82N 116.10W
10/06/2007 E1.7 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7000 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY FAWN CREEK SNOTEL

&&

$$

RCM

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070746
SWOD48
SPC AC 070746

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

..DISCUSSION...

DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER TH ERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE GULF. THEREFORE THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AREAS
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DIAL.. 10/07/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070724
SWODY3
SPC AC 070722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONCENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THEN BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AS IT
AMPLIFIES SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EWD AND
SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NERN STATES DURING THE DAY.

..NERN U.S AND MID ATLANTIC...

STRONGER UPPER FLOW ATTENDING CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN POST FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY
SPREAD OVER WARM SECTOR AS THIS FEATURE AMPLIFIES SEWD. SOME
DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ALONG MOIST
AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN AXIS OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
HEATING OCCURS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MULTICELL STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.DIAL.. 10/07/2007

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KFGF [070659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 070659
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
159 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1252 AM HAIL 6 NNE FINLEY 47.59N 97.79W
10/07/2007 E0.88 INCH STEELE ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GGUST

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KKEY [070628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 070628
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
227 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/06/2007 M41 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A QUICK MOVING SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS AT
THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT 1146 PM EDT.

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070602
SWODY1
SPC AC 070600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE A
SECOND/MUCH LARGER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW.

..WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO KS/NWRN OK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MOIST...BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM AND ONGOING
STORMS/CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN
LIMITED.

AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT --
AIDED BY 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE FORECAST FROM THE WRN
UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS/STORM SEGMENTS...OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL W OF THE FRONT ATOP THE COOL POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. THUS...THOUGH STRONGEST CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...OVERALL THREAT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
LIMITED ATTM...AND THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK THIS
FORECAST.

STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/07/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070539
SWODY2
SPC AC 070537

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING UPPER TROUGH INTO
MONDAY. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO EJECT NEWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MN OR WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWWD THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE EWD AND SEWD
DURING THE DAY. FARTHER EAST A QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EXTEND FROM NW-SE OVER THE NERN STATES.

..UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

UPPER 60S LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL CHARACTERIZE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED AREAS OF CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT MLCAPE IN THIS REGION TO AOB 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING IN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DPVA IN
VICINITY OF FRONT AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY SOME
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALLOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO WARM...AND STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP
EWD. A SWLY 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXIST EAST OF SURFACE LOW
OVER PARTS OF WI...SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY. THE STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND JUST WEST
OF SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 35 TO 45 KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..NY...

MODERATELY STRONG NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF
NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF NY. WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND THEN SEWD INTO THE NERN STATES
MAY AUGMENT LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ADVANCE
RAPIDLY SEWD. WEAK 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
SUFFICIENTLY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY ADVANCE SEWD FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.DIAL.. 10/07/2007

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KFSD [070416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 070416
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1116 PM CDT SAT OCT 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM HAIL 4 E PARKER 43.40N 97.06W
10/06/2007 M1.00 INCH TURNER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1245 AM HAIL 2 SW BEAVER CREEK 43.59N 96.39W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH ROCK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0126 AM HAIL 1 ESE MAGNOLIA 43.64N 96.05W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH NOBLES MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0126 AM HAIL 1 ESE MAGNOLIA 43.64N 96.06W
10/06/2007 E0.75 INCH ROCK MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0230 AM HAIL 3 ENE FARMER 43.74N 97.63W
10/06/2007 E0.88 INCH HANSON SD PUBLIC

HAIL FELL FOR 10 MINUTES. ACCOMPANIED BY ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN WITH LITTLE WIND.

0235 AM HAIL 2 N SPENCER 43.76N 97.59W
10/06/2007 E1.00 INCH MCCOOK SD PUBLIC

HAIL OF VARYING SIZES UP TO QUARTER SIZE FELL. HAIL
LASTED FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

MJF

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