Tuesday, March 11, 2008

KTFX [120342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 120342
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
942 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
03/11/2008 M66.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N CHOTEAU 47.83N 112.18W
03/11/2008 M72.00 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S SWEET GRASS 48.98N 111.96W
03/11/2008 M57.00 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

57 MPH WIND GUST AT THE SWEET GRASS DOT SENSOR. SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF OBSERVATION WERE 38 MPH.

0518 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ENE CHOTEAU 47.81N 112.18W
03/11/2008 M67.00 MPH TETON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SUST WIND OF 67 MPH OVR A 3MINUTE PERIOD.

0552 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW GREAT FALLS 47.47N 111.34W
03/11/2008 M58.00 MPH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT THE NWS OFFICE


&&

$$

THOMSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [120323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 120323
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
922 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N CHOTEAU 47.83N 112.18W
03/11/2008 M72.00 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S SWEET GRASS 48.98N 111.96W
03/11/2008 M57.00 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

57 MPH WIND GUST AT THE SWEET GRASS DOT SENSOR. SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF OBSERVATION WERE 38 MPH.

0518 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ENE CHOTEAU 47.81N 112.18W
03/11/2008 M67.00 MPH TETON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SUST WIND OF 67 MPH OVR A 3MINUTE PERIOD.

0552 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW GREAT FALLS 47.47N 111.34W
03/11/2008 M58.00 MPH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT THE NWS OFFICE


&&

$$

THOMSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [120321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 120321
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
921 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0451 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S SWEET GRASS 48.98N 111.96W
03/11/2008 M57 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

57 MPH WIND GUST AT THE SWEET GRASS DOT SENSOR. SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF OBSERVATION WERE 38 MPH.


&&

$$

THOMSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120050
SWODY1
SPC AC 120047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..FL...

00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS /PW
VALUES OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES/ OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PENINSULA WITH
MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO DELINEATE THE WRN EDGE OF A BAND OF
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SERN
STATES. THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AS THIS
BAND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES EWD. ADDITIONAL MOIST
CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.MEAD.. 03/12/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [112357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 112357
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
557 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW GREAT FALLS 47.47N 111.34W
03/11/2008 M58 MPH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT THE NWS OFFICE


&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [112333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 112333
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ENE CHOTEAU 47.81N 112.18W
03/11/2008 M67 MPH TETON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SUST WIND OF 67 MPH OVR A 3MINUTE PERIOD.


&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [112256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 112256
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
456 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N CHOTEAU 47.83N 112.18W
03/11/2008 M72 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DREILLY

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [112231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 112231
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
431 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
03/11/2008 M66 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

0121 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
03/11/2008 M62 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS


&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KCRP [112111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 112111
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE TYNAN 28.17N 97.72W
03/10/2008 BEE TX NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE TREES DOWN IN TYNAN. SEVERAL LARGE METAL HIGHWAY
SIGNS BROKEN OFF AT BASE AND BLOWN 100 FEET INTO FIELD
ALONG HIGHWAY 359.

0147 PM TORNADO 8 W SINTON 28.03N 97.64W
03/10/2008 SAN PATRICIO TX NWS STORM SURVEY

NWS STORM SURVEY INDICATED EF0 DAMAGE TO A HOME NEAR HWY
630 AND CR1747. THE ENTIRE EAST FACING SIDE OF A METAL
ROOF OF A NEW HOME WAS BLOWN OFF AND TOSSED 50 TO 100
YARDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
25 YARDS WIDE AND TRAVELED 100 YARDS IN LENGTH. THERE WAS
NO VISIBLE DAMAGE TO ANY OTHER SURROUNDING STRUCTURE.

0208 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW ODEM 27.97N 97.61W
03/10/2008 SAN PATRICIO TX NWS STORM SURVEY

LARGE TREES DOWN AND A POWER POLE SNAPPED NEAR HWY 234
AND COUNTY ROAD 2015.


&&

$$

JMETZ

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAN [112042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 112042
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM TORNADO 4 NW HOLLY BLUFF 32.86N 90.76W
03/03/2008 F2 SHARKEY MS NWS STORM SURVEY

A FEW THOUSAND TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED IN THE DELTA
NATIONAL FOREST INCLUDING THE OVERCUP OAK RESEARCH
NATURAL AREA. PATH LENGTH WAS AROUND 5 MILES AND MAXIMUM
PATH WIDTH AROUND ONE-QUARTER MILE. MAXIMUM ESTIMATED
WINDS 120 MPH WITH A RATING OF EF2.


&&

$$

SCW

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111932
SWODY1
SPC AC 111930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A COUPLE MARGINAL THUNDER THREAT AREAS ARE THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE CONCERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER VORT/LOW DEPICTED WELL BY THE CIRCULATION NOTED ON WV IMAGERY
NEAR LBB WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS TX. STRONG LOW LEVEL
HEATING AND RELATIVELY COLD AIR CO-LOCATED WITH UPPER CIRCULATION
STILL EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SMALL THREAT OF THUNDER SOUTH FL REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WHERE A MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE RESIDES N OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE S OF KEYS. ANY THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.HALES.. 03/11/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [111914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 111914
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
314 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM TORNADO 2 SSW MOUNT PLEASANT 31.41N 81.69W
03/07/2008 WAYNE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RPORTED A ONE HALF MILE LONG AND 200
YARD WIDE DAMAGE PATH THROUGH A WOODED AREA NEAR POST
ROAD AND BOONES BRANCH ROAD. SIGNIFICANT TREE BLOWDOWN
OCCURED AND THE ROAD DEPARTMENT WAS DISPACHED TO CLEAR
THE ROADWAY. SEVERAL TRAP TYPE GARAGES WERE DAMAGED AND
THE TORNADO TRANSITED BETWEEN SEVERAL HOMES. REPORT
RECEIVED 3-11-08 1410 EDT.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111647
SWODY2
SPC AC 111645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CONUS GENERALLY SPLIT/ZONAL THRU THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW AMPLITUDE SRN BRANCH S/WV'S TRACK FROM GULF ACROSS FL
AND ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. IN THE NRN STREAM STRONG TROF
EXITS THE NERN U.S EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A WEAKER UPSTREAM
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OVERALL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING ACROSS THE
U.S. FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
OF NRN PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH MOVING E FROM UPR MS VALLEY. THE
GREATER LIKLIHOOD OF ANY STORMS SHOULD BEGIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH TRACKS EWD TOWARD GREAT LAKES.

WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL COMMENCE SRN PLAINS WED NIGHT WITH A
30-40KT LLJ...ATTM DO NOT EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
FOR AN ELEVATED THUNDER THREAT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND MORE
LIKELY AFTER 12Z THU. THUS HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST OF
THUNDER...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

THE FLAT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. THUS HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR S FL.

.HALES.. 03/11/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111553
SWODY1
SPC AC 111551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SERN
STATES...EMERGING OFF THE GA/SC COAST AROUND 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A
GENERALLY STABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFFSHORE. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR S FL THIS
AFTERNOON. TO THE W...A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD
INTO W CNTRL TX. COOL AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..S FL...
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN FL...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG WITH POCKETS OF HEATING. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SELY TO SWLY WITH HEIGHT AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER
LIVED STORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW DUE TO THE POOR
QUALITY OF THE AIR MASS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..W CNTRL TX...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY CENTER...DENOTED BY AREA OF
CLOUDS ON VISIBLE THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE SEWD TODAY.
MEANWHILE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST TO THE E.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. LITTLE FORCING EXISTS ASIDE FROM AFTERNOON
MIXING THUS ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED.

.JEWELL.. 03/11/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [111448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KJAX 111448
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1047 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE JASPER 30.45N 82.93W
03/07/2008 HAMILTON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH THAT
SNAPPED 60 FOOT PINE TREES ABOUT 35 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
ALONG INTERSTATE 75 AT EXIT 451 IN SOUTHEAST HAMILTON
COUNTY. THE TIME OF THE REPORT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING
POST EVENT ANALYSIS BASED UPON RADAR PRESENTATION.

0920 AM HAIL 2 SSE DOWLING PARK 30.22N 83.22W
03/07/2008 E0.75 INCH SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

SPOTTER REPORT MADE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THE REPORT
WAS RELAYED TO THEM AT 923 AM EST AND EVENT WAS ONGOING
AT THE TIME.

0920 AM TSTM WND DMG LIVE OAK 30.29N 82.99W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

AT 945 AM EST SUWANNEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGMENT
REPORTED POWER OUT ALL OVER THE CITY OF LIVE OAK. POST
EVENT RADAR ANALYSIS AND FOLLOW UP WITH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT INDICATES EVENT STARTED NEAR 920 AM EST AND
LASTED UNTIL 935 AM EST.

0920 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 W OBRIEN 30.03N 82.97W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

A COUPLE OF TREES BLOWN DOWN IN TROY SPRINGS STATE PARK.
TIME IS ESTIMATED BASED ON REPORT AND RADAR IMAGERY.

0930 AM TORNADO 5 S WELLBORN 30.16N 82.82W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND AN OLD SHED BLOW INTO THE TREES
OFF COUNTY ROAD 137. REPORT WAS RECEIVED AT EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AT 1002 AM EST.

0940 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 SE WAYCROSS 31.15N 82.29W
03/07/2008 WARE GA PUBLIC

A 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON THE LAURA WALKER
GOLF COURSE. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0940 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 SE WAYCROSS 31.15N 82.29W
03/07/2008 WARE GA PUBLIC

A 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON LAURA WALKER
GOLF COURSE. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0945 AM TORNADO 1 ENE LAKE CITY 30.20N 82.62W
03/07/2008 F2 COLUMBIA FL NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 2 FATAL *** ONE DIRECT FATALITY WAS DUE TO TREE DOWN
ON MOBILE HOME. FEMALE FATALITY WAS IN MOBILE HOME AT 649
NE GIBBS TERRACE. ONE INDIRECT FATALITY WAS DUE TO A
POWER SURGE BUT DETAILS OF LOCATION OF EVENT ARE UNKNOWN
AT THIS TIME.

0945 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 SE WAYCROSS 31.15N 82.29W
03/07/2008 WARE GA PUBLIC

A 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON LAURA WALKER
GOLF COURSE.

0950 AM TSTM WND DMG BELL 29.76N 82.86W
03/07/2008 GILCHRIST FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PUBLIC REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO ON THEIR PROPERTY AT
5401 NW 22ND CT IN BELL. FOUR TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0955 AM LIGHTNING LIVE OAK 30.29N 82.99W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

LIGHTNING STRUCK AN OLD STUCTURE IGNITING A FIRE. MINIMAL
DAMAGE WAS DONE TO THE BUILDING.

1010 AM HEAVY RAIN W LIVE OAK 30.29N 82.99W
03/07/2008 E0.00 INCH SUWANNEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SPOTTER REPORTED
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH SOME
FLOODING OF ROADS AND LOW AREAS.

1010 AM TORNADO 4 E TAYLOR 30.43N 82.23W
03/07/2008 BAKER FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE RESIDENCE WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND ONE RESIDENCE
HAD TIN ROOF BLOWN OFF DUE TO POSSIBLE TORNADO. LOCATIONS
WERE ALONG O.C HORNE ROAD AND GOLDEN GRASS FARMS LANE
RESPECTIVELY.

1015 AM TORNADO 7 ESE TAYLOR 30.39N 82.20W
03/07/2008 BAKER FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A SPOTTER REPORTED A SWATH OF TREES SNAPPED ACROSS A FARM
ALONG STATE ROAD 185 NEAR EXIT 5. THERE WERE NUMEROUS
PINE TREES SNAPPED OFF ABOUT 8-10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
AND THE TOPS WERE STREWN ABOUT FARMLAND. LARGE CYPRESS
TREES WERE DAMAGED AND TWISTED. SNAPPED TREE TOPS WERE
OBSERVED IN POWER LINES WHICH CAUSED AREA POWER OUTAGES.
THE TIME OF THE DAMAGE WAS BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR.

1015 AM TORNADO 6 ENE TAYLOR 30.46N 82.20W
03/07/2008 CHARLTON GA EMERGENCY MNGR

A TOTAL OF 5 HOUSES WERE DAMAGED WITH ONE HOUSE
SUSTAINING MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. DAMAGE PATH ESTIMATED
BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TO BE 1 MILE IN LENGTH. POSSIBLE
TORNADO INDUCED DAMAGE WAS ALONG STATE ROAD 185 NEAR MILE
MARKER 2.

1018 AM TORNADO TAYLOR 30.44N 82.29W
03/07/2008 BAKER FL UTILITY COMPANY

POWER POLES TWISTED AND SNAPPED. ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

1020 AM TORNADO N SANDERSON 30.25N 82.27W
03/07/2008 BAKER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

BRICK HOME DESTROYED AT 11456 O.C. HORNE RD.

1025 AM TORNADO 5 NNE ST. GEORGE 30.59N 82.01W
03/07/2008 F0 NASSAU FL EMERGENCY MNGR

MINOR DAMAGE TO OUTHOUSE AND TREES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG
RIVER ROAD.

1025 AM TORNADO GLEN ST. MARY 30.27N 82.16W
03/07/2008 BAKER FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

TIN ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE AT 20192 GOLDEN GRASS FARMS
LANE.

1025 AM TORNADO 11 ENE TAYLOR 30.50N 82.12W
03/07/2008 CHARLTON GA UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN.

1027 AM TORNADO 9 W WAYNESVILLE 31.23N 81.94W
03/07/2008 BRANTLEY GA EMERGENCY MNGR

5 PUBLIC REPORTS OF A TORNADO RECEIVED BY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT 9 MILES WEST OF WAYNESVILLE AT TURKEY RIDGE.
DAMAGE TO AT LEAST ONE HOME.

1050 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 S DOCK JUNCTION 31.13N 81.52W
03/07/2008 GLYNN GA UTILITY COMPANY

UTILITY COMPANY REPORTS SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. TIMES WERE ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

1130 AM WATER SPOUT KINGS BAY BASE 30.79N 81.51W
03/07/2008 CAMDEN GA OTHER FEDERAL

REPORT RELAYED FROM FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE OF WATERSPOUT
SEEN OVER THE WATER BETWEEN KINGS BAY BASE AND CUMBERLAND
ISLAND. TIME IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

0150 PM TSTM WND DMG INTERLACHEN 29.62N 81.90W
03/07/2008 PUTNAM FL EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED TREES DOWN AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES REPORTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY BY PUTNAM COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. TIME IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND
EMA TIMING OF EVENT.

0212 PM HAIL SILVER SPRINGS SHORES 29.10N 82.01W
03/07/2008 E0.88 INCH MARION FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PARK OFFICIAL WHO LIVES ON
THE SILVER RIVER STATE PARK PROPERTY. TIME BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY.

0608 PM HEAVY RAIN OCALA 29.19N 82.13W
03/07/2008 U0.00 INCH MARION FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN THE DOWNTOWN
AREA.

1100 PM HEAVY RAIN FLEMINGTON 29.41N 82.30W
03/07/2008 M6.70 INCH MARION FL TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS AMOUNT IS STORM TOTAL.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [111445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 111445
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1045 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE JASPER 30.45N 82.93W
03/07/2008 HAMILTON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH THAT
SNAPPED 60 FOOT PINE TREES ABOUT 35 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
ALONG INTERSTATE 75 AT EXIT 451 IN SOUTHEAST HAMILTON
COUNTY. THE TIME OF THE REPORT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING
POST EVENT ANALYSIS BASED UPON RADAR PRESENTATION.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [111413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 111413
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1012 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM TSTM WND DMG LIVE OAK 30.29N 82.99W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

AT 945 AM EST SUWANNEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGMENT
REPORTED POWER OUT ALL OVER THE CITY OF LIVE OAK. POST
EVENT RADAR ANALYSIS AND FOLLOW UP WITH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT INDICATES EVENT STARTED NEAR 920 AM EST AND
LASTED UNTIL 935 AM EST.

0920 AM HAIL 2 SSE DOWLING PARK 30.22N 83.22W
03/07/2008 E0.75 INCH SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

SPOTTER REPORT MADE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THE REPORT
WAS RELAYED TO THEM AT 923 AM EST AND EVENT WAS ONGOING
AT THE TIME.

0930 AM TORNADO 5 S WELLBORN 30.16N 82.82W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND AN OLD SHED BLOW INTO THE TREES
OFF COUNTY ROAD 137. REPORT WAS RECEIVED AT EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AT 1002 AM EST.

0955 AM LIGHTNING LIVE OAK 30.29N 82.99W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

LIGHTNING STRUCK AN OLD STUCTURE IGNITING A FIRE. MINIMAL
DAMAGE WAS DONE TO THE BUILDING.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [111357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 111357
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
957 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 AM LIGHTNING LIVE OAK 30.29N 82.99W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

LIGHTNING STRUCK AN OLD STUCTURE IGNITING A FIRE. MINIMAL
DAMAGE WAS DONE TO THE BUILDING.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [111355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 111355
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
955 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM TORNADO 5 S WELLBORN 30.16N 82.82W
03/07/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND AN OLD SHED BLOW INTO THE TREES
OFF COUNTY ROAD 137. REPORT WAS RECEIVED AT EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AT 1002 AM EST.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [111349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 111349
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HAIL 2 SSE DOWLING PARK 30.22N 83.22W
03/07/2008 E0.75 INCH SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

SPOTTER REPORT MADE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THE REPORT
WAS RELAYED TO THEM AT 923 AM EST AND EVENT WAS ONGOING
AT THE TIME.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KJAX [111319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 111319
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE JASPER 30.45N 82.93W
03/07/2008 HAMILTON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH THAT
SNAPPED 60 FOOT PINE TREES ABOUT 35 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND
ALONG INTERSTATE 75 AT EXIT 451 IN SOUTHEAST HAMILTON
COUNTY. THE TIME OF THE REPORT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DURING
POST EVENT ANALYSIS BASED UPON RADAR PRESENTATION.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111242
SWODY1
SPC AC 111239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..S FL...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FL KEYS AND CUBA INDICATE A
RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ IN
THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE FL KEYS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN FL AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MLCAPES
SHOULD APPROACH 500 J/KG...AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z SOUNDING FROM
EYW...AND EXPECT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SRN FRINGE OF
HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACT ON A WEAKLY CAPPED
AIR MASS.

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER SRN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL JET WITH RATHER
STRONG WLY FLOW ABOVE 6-7 KM AGL. THE MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT MORE
ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL AND NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

..W TX...
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ERN NM/FAR WRN TX AT 12Z WILL TRANSLATE SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL COLD POOL /-22 TO
-24 C AT 500 MB/ AND DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED
/BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/...THOUGH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES
OF 100-300 J/KG.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE 11/21Z-12/03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CONCHO
VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK LEE TROUGH. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY EVEN
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

.EVANS/MEAD.. 03/11/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110845
SWOD48
SPC AC 110844

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

..DISCUSSION...

WELL PRONOUNCED CORE OF WLYS WILL EVOLVE LATER THIS WEEK AS MAIN JET
STREAM BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN U.S. FROM CA INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALONG THIS ZONE MULTIPLE FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE COUNTRY...A FEW OF THESE SHOULD
INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE NWD INTO A REGION
OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IT APPEARS ONE SUCH FEATURE SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS OK/TX INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. GIVEN DEEP
WLY FLOW REGIME IT APPEARS MOIST/WARM SECTOR WILL BE SHUNTED
DOWNSTREAM QUICKLY AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG ERN EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED CAP...EXACTLY WHERE IS THE UNKNOWN.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RISK OF SEVERE SHOULD BE
CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF AR/LA...NEWD INTO TN. FORECAST EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR A GRADUAL MOISTENING/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF
STATES...SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE BEYOND THE DAY4 PERIOD.

.DARROW.. 03/11/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110723
SWODY3
SPC AC 110721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARD A POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER
THIS WEEK. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE OVER THE MIDDLE PARTS
OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CORE OF STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM CA...SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/WEST TX. THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION SHOULD WITH TIME INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE SOMEWHERE OVER N TX/OK...BEFORE LIFTING NEWD. MODELS
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT AND MIGRATION OF SFC CYCLOGENESIS WHICH
ULTIMATELY LENDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF LLJ IN RESPONSE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL WLYS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SOME OF IT
STRONG...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF
OK/TX/LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRIDAY. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SFC LOW EJECTING
NEWD INTO AR LATE THURSDAY WHILE GFS IS SLOWER IN THIS EVOLUTION.
IF GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS THEN A SLIGHT RISK
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS REGION.

.DARROW.. 03/11/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110534
SWODY2
SPC AC 110533

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..FL...

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD FL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION AS LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK.
EVEN SO...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...

FARTHER NW...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
MO LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER 13/06Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN
KS/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR AS 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION. WITHIN THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION THERE MAY BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/IA LATE IN THE PERIOD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IT
APPEARS SFC WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NWD
ACROSS IL/IND/OH. STRONG ASCENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP A VERY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

.DARROW.. 03/11/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110526
SWODY1
SPC AC 110523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY
ONE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE: 1) SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES EWD
THROUGH THE SERN STATES...AND 2)SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NM WHICH
WILL MOVE MORE SEWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL LIFT
NWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE SRN FL PENINSULA PRIOR TO WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF BASIN AND FL PENINSULA.

..S FL...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FL KEYS AND CUBA INDICATE A
RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE PENINSULA TODAY ALONG AND S OF
WARM FRONT. LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AT LEAST MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACT ON A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS.

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER SRN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL JET WITH RATHER
STRONG WLY FLOW ABOVE 6-7 KM AGL. THE MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. THE WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT MORE
ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL AND NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

..W TX...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ERN NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL COLD
POOL /-22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ AND DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/...THOUGH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPES OF 100-300 J/KG.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE 11/21Z-12/03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CONCHO
VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK LEE TROUGH. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY EVEN
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

.MEAD.. 03/11/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.