SWOD48
SPC AC 110844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION...
WELL PRONOUNCED CORE OF WLYS WILL EVOLVE LATER THIS WEEK AS MAIN JET
STREAM BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN U.S. FROM CA INTO THE
CAROLINAS. ALONG THIS ZONE MULTIPLE FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE COUNTRY...A FEW OF THESE SHOULD
INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD DRAW MOISTURE NWD INTO A REGION
OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IT APPEARS ONE SUCH FEATURE SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS OK/TX INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. GIVEN DEEP
WLY FLOW REGIME IT APPEARS MOIST/WARM SECTOR WILL BE SHUNTED
DOWNSTREAM QUICKLY AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG ERN EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED CAP...EXACTLY WHERE IS THE UNKNOWN.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RISK OF SEVERE SHOULD BE
CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF AR/LA...NEWD INTO TN. FORECAST EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR A GRADUAL MOISTENING/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF
STATES...SEVERE MAY BE POSSIBLE BEYOND THE DAY4 PERIOD.
.DARROW.. 03/11/2008
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