Sunday, October 3, 2010

KREV [040126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 040126
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
626 PM PDT SUN OCT 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.26N 119.94W
10/03/2010 M1.60 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH 530 PM.


&&

$$

WHOHMANN

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KFGZ [040120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 040120
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
619 PM MST SUN OCT 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM FLASH FLOOD SUPAI 36.22N 112.69W
10/03/2010 COCONINO AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 FOOT WALL OF WATER MOVING DOWN HUALAPAI CANYON TOWARD
VILLAGE OF SUPAI.


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000192

$$

BEP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040046
SWODY1
SPC AC 040044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SSEWD TONIGHT TOWARD THE CA
COAST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES WITH THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IN CNTRL NM.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT
ON THE CANNON AIR FORCE BASE WSR-88D VWP WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
WITH HEIGHT BELOW 3 KM AGL. IN SPITE OF THIS...INSTABILITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AS THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ESTIMATING THE MAX SBCAPE IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL NM UNORGANIZED ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS
COOL THIS EVENING.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS AZ AND CA...HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AHEAD THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TAPPING A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
EXCEPTION BEING IN SRN AND CNTRL CA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 10/04/2010

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KFGZ [032037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 032037
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
137 PM MST SUN OCT 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL SELIGMAN 35.33N 112.88W
10/03/2010 M1.00 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME QUARTER-SIZED HAIL... MOSTLY DIME-SIZED FOR
PREVIOUS TEN MINUTES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000191

$$

DGV

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KABQ [032024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 032024
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
224 PM MDT SUN OCT 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL SANDIA PARK 35.17N 106.36W
10/02/2010 M0.88 INCH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002165

$$

MT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031957
SWODY1
SPC AC 031956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS
THE PREVIOUSLY STAGNANT OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW NOW BECOMING
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS/SUB-SEVERE HAIL.

..GUYER.. 10/03/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010/

...INTERIOR SWRN STATES...
OLD UPPER LOW HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND NOW DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS
SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS MUCH STRONGER TROUGHING DEVELOPS TOWARD
THE W COAST.

CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL PRIMARILY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AND AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AS
STEERING FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE S.

STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC HEATING WILL YIELD SBCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE LWR CO RVR VLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCTD TSTMS
LIKELY WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
PROPAGATE TOWARD ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS.

INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...PRECLUDING MORE THAN A 5% SEVERE WIND THREAT.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031728
SWODY2
SPC AC 031727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO AN UPPER
TROUGH NOW NEARING THE WEST COAST...AS AN UPPER RIDGE OTHERWISE
PREVAILS OVER THE PLAINS AND A BROAD CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.

...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV TO AZ/SOUTHERN UT...
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING CA UPPER TROUGH...AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE CONTENT/PW
VALUES...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS A
BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
VICINITY ON MONDAY. WHILE CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS...GIVEN STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT IN
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE TSTMS MAY BE
SEMI-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED AND CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV
TO PORTIONS OF AZ/PERHAPS SOUTHERN UT.

..GUYER.. 10/03/2010

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KBRO [031726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 031726
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM WATER SPOUT 15 NE SOUTH PADRE ISLAN 26.23N 97.01W
10/02/2010 GMZ150 TX TRAINED SPOTTER

CAPTAIN MURPHY REPORTED BETWEEN 4 TO 5 WATERSPOUTS 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BETWEEN 0130 PM AND
2 PM LOCAL TIME.


&&

$$

JESTUPIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031552
SWODY1
SPC AC 031550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...INTERIOR SWRN STATES...
OLD UPPER LOW HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND NOW DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS
SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS MUCH STRONGER TROUGHING DEVELOPS TOWARD
THE W COAST.

CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL PRIMARILY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AND AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AS
STEERING FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE S.

STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC HEATING WILL YIELD SBCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE LWR CO RVR VLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCTD TSTMS
LIKELY WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
PROPAGATE TOWARD ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS.

INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...PRECLUDING MORE THAN A 5% SEVERE WIND THREAT.

..HALES/SMITH.. 10/03/2010

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KABQ [031457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 031457
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
857 AM MDT SUN OCT 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 5 E SANDIA PARK 35.17N 106.28W
10/02/2010 E1.00 INCH BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002164

$$

AA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031248
SWODY1
SPC AC 031247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
RCKYS/HI PLNS WILL PERSIST INTO MON. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SRN CA EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES NE AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE E PACIFIC.

...SWRN STATES...
MODERATE MOISTURE /WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE
40S AND 50S F AND WITH PW AROUND 1.00 INCH/...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL
LAPSE RATES...AND SFC HEATING WILL YIELD SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER THE LWR CO RVR VLY TODAY. SCTD TSTMS LIKELY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT
MAXIMA/BANDS OF ASCENT ON NRN/ERN SIDES OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. COVERAGE OF ANY SVR
EVENTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SVR
PROBABILITIES.

FARTHER E OVER SRN CO AND NM...UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN MEAN FLOW/SHEAR
ACROSS REGION...AND MINIMIZE FORCING FOR ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS...AFTN
DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/03/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030819
SWOD48
SPC AC 030818

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...SEVERE POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION
WITHIN THE WESTERLIES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE COMING
WORK WEEK. WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CANADA...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...
WHICH LIKELY WILL FINALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE ACCELERATION OF THE
EASTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW...AWAY FROM NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS. THE WESTERN CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO ACCELERATE
EASTWARD...AND THE MANNER IN WHICH THIS OCCURS IS STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. BUT GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ARE LOW INTO AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
CORRESPONDINGLY...DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF A REGIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..KERR.. 10/03/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030707
SWODY3
SPC AC 030706

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER...ONE NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... AND ANOTHER
OVER CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES
EXTENDING IN A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC BELT ACROSS CANADA.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...WHICH MAY LARGELY BE IN RESPONSE TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS PIVOTING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTERS. BUT GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN LOW MAY SHIFT TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WESTERN LOW SUBTLY RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

WHILE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PROMINENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE
OF A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLY STRATIFIED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS.

...PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING OF DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW INTO AND THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL
PROBABLY BECOME RATHER FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF A 50-70 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK. AND AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING INSTABILITY...AND THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF SUPPORTING MID/UPPER FORCING...TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 10/03/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030505
SWODY2
SPC AC 030503

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING LARGER SCALE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE PREVAILING
BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA.

AT THE SAME TIME...A CLOSED LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER NEAR THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO ITS NORTH...WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. BUT IT SEEMS
MORE PROBABLE THAT ANY MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND GENERALLY IN
RESPONSE TO IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT...A CONTINUING CONFLUENT REGIME
FROM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PROBABLY ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
WHILE A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE INLAND ADVANCING TROUGH...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE TOO MEAGER TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AREA. IF EARLY
DAY CLOUD COVER DOES NOT STRONGLY IMPEDE SURFACE HEATING...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS COULD
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

..KERR.. 10/03/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030503
SWODY1
SPC AC 030501

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE AMPLIFIED BLOCKING REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
ERN STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO
EJECT NEWD AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FASTER SWLY FLOW
ATTENDING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE WRN
U.S. COAST.

...SWRN STATES...

IN-SITU MOISTURE WITH 40S TO 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE FROM AZ...SRN CA INTO A PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN. STORMS
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS SRN CO AND NM...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD TEND TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE FLOW
ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE STORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED AND LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY.

..DIAL/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/03/2010

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