ACUS01 KWNS 031957
SWODY1
SPC AC 031956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHWEST STATES...
FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS
THE PREVIOUSLY STAGNANT OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW NOW BECOMING
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS/SUB-SEVERE HAIL.
..GUYER.. 10/03/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010/
...INTERIOR SWRN STATES...
OLD UPPER LOW HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND NOW DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS
SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS MUCH STRONGER TROUGHING DEVELOPS TOWARD
THE W COAST.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL PRIMARILY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AND AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AS
STEERING FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE S.
STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC HEATING WILL YIELD SBCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE LWR CO RVR VLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCTD TSTMS
LIKELY WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
PROPAGATE TOWARD ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS.
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...PRECLUDING MORE THAN A 5% SEVERE WIND THREAT.
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