SWODY1
SPC AC 030501
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE AMPLIFIED BLOCKING REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
ERN STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO
EJECT NEWD AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FASTER SWLY FLOW
ATTENDING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE WRN
U.S. COAST.
...SWRN STATES...
IN-SITU MOISTURE WITH 40S TO 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE FROM AZ...SRN CA INTO A PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN. STORMS
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS SRN CO AND NM...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD TEND TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE FLOW
ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE STORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED AND LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY.
..DIAL/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/03/2010
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