Monday, July 29, 2013

KTFX [291039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 291039
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
439 AM MDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 AM TSTM WND GST 6 SW HAYS 47.93N 108.74W
07/29/2013 M49 MPH BLAINE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

49 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OCCURRED AT HAYS
AUTOMATED MT DOT SITE AT 153 AM MDT.


&&

$$

COULSTON

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KTFX [291036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 291036
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
436 AM MDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0218 AM TSTM WND GST 13 S FORT BELKNAP 48.30N 108.72W
07/29/2013 M49 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET

49 MPH WIND GUST AT FORT BELKNAP RAWS SITE AT 218 AM
MDT. 0.74 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ALSO ACCOMPANIED
STORM.

0218 AM HEAVY RAIN 13 S FORT BELKNAP 48.30N 108.72W
07/29/2013 M0.74 INCH BLAINE MT MESONET

49 MPH WIND GUST AT FORT BELKNAP RAWS SITE AT 218 AM
MDT. 0.74 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ALSO ACCOMPANIED
STORM.


&&

$$

COULSTON

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KGGW [290916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 290916
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
316 AM MDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.96N 108.31W
07/29/2013 M55 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

SUSTAINED 38 MPH.


&&

$$

MATTM

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KVEF [290903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 290903
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
202 AM PDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 ESE PANAMINT SPRINGS 36.32N 117.41W
07/28/2013 INYO CA PUBLIC

SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER WITH DEBRIS FLOWING ACROSS
PANAMINT VALLEY RD. REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.


&&

$$

METZGER

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290900
SWOD48
SPC AC 290859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SEASONABLY STRONG NORTHWEST MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITHIN A
CONFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND UPPER TROUGHING...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS STRONGER
FLOW...A PLUME OF VERY WARM DEEPLY MIXED AIR EMERGING FROM THE
PLATEAU REGION SHOULD BEGIN ADVECTING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
...ABOVE A MOIST/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST REGION.

THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO
AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE FLOW...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MAY NOT SPREAD EAST OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE IN QUESTION BY THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO REPEAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. ANY ONE OF A NUMBER OF THESE SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS...WHICH
MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS THEY PROGRESS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...THROUGH THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...THE
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES IS VERY LOW...AND TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN AND DELINEATE ANY
POTENTIAL REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREAS.

..KERR.. 07/29/2013

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KRAH [290752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KRAH 290752
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
352 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW HOPE 35.54N 80.02W
07/28/2013 RANDOLPH NC 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON CHECKMARK ROAD NEAR CHARLES MOUNTAIN ROAD.

1105 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ENE ALTAMAHAW 36.19N 79.46W
07/28/2013 ALAMANCE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF
PAGETOWN ROAD AND ALTAMAHAW UNION RIDGE ROAD. TIME
ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

1115 PM HAIL 3 S CHAPEL HILL 35.88N 79.04W
07/28/2013 E0.25 INCH ORANGE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL IN CHAPEL HILL AROUND
1115 PM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300881 RAH1300880 RAH1300879

$$

VINCENT

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290735
SWODY3
SPC AC 290734

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TYPO

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BUT A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HOWEVER....UPPER RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN FIRM ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WITHIN
TWO DISTINCT STREAMS...ONE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. AS THIS OCCURS... NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION TO THE NORTH OF A LINGERING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. BUT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...AS WELL AS IN A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WESTWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATELY LARGE CAPE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BROAD AREA...COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS...WITHIN A
SEASONABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL
ZONE. WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. AND MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF MODEST LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...COUPLED WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. DEEP
LAYER FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAKER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT STRONGER HEATING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER EAST...MAY
COMPENSATE...CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

..KERR.. 07/29/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290732
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BUT A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HOWEVER....UPPER RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN FIRM ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WITHIN
TWO DISTINCT STREAMS...ONE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. AS THIS OCCURS... NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION TO THE NORTH OF A LINGERING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. BUT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...AS WELL AS IN A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WESTWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATELY LARGE CAPE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BROAD AREA...COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS...WITHIN A
SEASONABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL
ZONE. WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. AND MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF MODEST LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...COUPLED WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. DEEP
LAYER FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAKER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT STRONGER HEATING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER EAST...MAY
COMPENSATE...CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

..KERR.. 07/29/2013

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KVEF [290730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 290730
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1230 AM PDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW SILVERADO RANCH 36.06N 115.18W
07/29/2013 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED DAMAGE TO HIS VEHICLE WHEN HE
OPENED THE DOOR AND THE WINDS FORCED THE DOOR FROM HIS
HAND WHICH BENT THE HINGE. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH.


&&

$$

ASG

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KTFX [290724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 290724
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
123 AM MDT MON JUL 29 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 AM HAIL GREAT FALLS 47.50N 111.29W
07/29/2013 E0.88 INCH CASCADE MT PUBLIC

NUMEROUS REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC OF PEA TO NICKEL SIZED
HAIL ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF GREAT FALLS. TIME AVERAGED
FROM THE REPORTS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO CAUSED LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING THERE.


&&

$$

COULSTON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1554

ACUS11 KWNS 290608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290607
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-290730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN NJ/SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290607Z - 290730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN NJ TO SERN NY IS QUITE LOW...WITH A LIMITED THREAT
FOR A STRONGER WIND GUST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR/CAPPI IMAGERY OVER FAR NRN DE INTO ADJACENT SWRN
NJ AND OVER A PART OF FAR EAST CENTRAL-NERN PA INDICATED A COUPLE OF
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS HAVE TRACKED ENEWD INTO THESE AREAS...THOUGH
RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED INVOF AN EWD MOVING FRONT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z.
50-70 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL NJ TO SERN NY...GIVEN PRECEDING CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION... IS INSUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THUS...THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND IN THE
CURRENT STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..PETERS/HART.. 07/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 39727505 40497498 41077499 41877477 42107425 41937353
41187363 40847401 40467415 40247412 39897428 39587469
39727505

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KTFX [290554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 290554
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1154 PM MDT SUN JUL 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1058 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S RUDYARD 48.55N 110.55W
07/28/2013 M50 MPH HILL MT MESONET

50 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST REPORTED AT AUTOMATED
SITE NEAR RUDYARD AT 1058 PM MDT.


&&

$$

COULSTON

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