KGJT [140337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 140337
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
937 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM HAIL FRUITA 39.16N 108.73W
10/13/2013 M0.50 INCH MESA CO NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301719

$$

JDC

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KEWX [140331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 140331
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1031 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM FLASH FLOOD PFLUGERVILLE 30.44N 97.62W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX PUBLIC

PD REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS NOT
PASSABLE IN THE CITY DUE TO RISING WATER.

0600 AM FLASH FLOOD KYLE 29.99N 97.87W
10/13/2013 HAYS TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED AROUND BUDA AND KYLE.

0615 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S SUNSET VALLEY 30.21N 97.82W
10/13/2013 E4.00 INCH TRAVIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN SIX HOURS.

0631 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSE ROLLINGWOOD 30.26N 97.78W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES ON GOING.

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 10 S PFLUGERVILLE 30.30N 97.62W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE CLOSED AROUND THE CITY
OF AUSTIN.

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 ESE SUNSET VALLEY 30.21N 97.77W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MAJOR FLOODING ALONG WILLIAMSON CREEK NEAR HEARTWOOD
DRIVE.

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD LOCKHART 29.87N 97.68W
10/13/2013 CALDWELL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROADS AROUND THE COUNTY REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO
THE MORNING HEAVY RAINS

0705 AM FLASH FLOOD SUNSET VALLEY 30.23N 97.81W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL WATER RESCUES NEAR SUNSET VALLEY.

0730 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 NNE UVALDE 29.31N 99.76W
10/13/2013 UVALDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY FM1051 CLOSED.

0800 AM FLASH FLOOD DRIPPING SPRINGS 30.19N 98.09W
10/13/2013 HAYS TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED AROUND WIMBERLEY... DRIFTWOOD AND
DRIPPING SPRINGS.

0825 AM FLASH FLOOD LOCKHART 29.87N 97.68W
10/13/2013 CALDWELL TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MANY ROADS ACROSS CALDWELL COUNTY HAVE WATER OVER THEM.

0930 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N MCQUEENEY 29.62N 98.05W
10/13/2013 M2.05 INCH GUADALUPE TX COCORAHS

2.05 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.

0945 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE ANDERSON MILL 30.46N 97.79W
10/13/2013 M4.35 INCH WILLIAMSON TX COCORAHS

4.35 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

1126 AM FLASH FLOOD CRYSTAL CITY 28.69N 99.83W
10/13/2013 ZAVALA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED INCLUDING STARR STREET AND A WATER
RESCUE ON JFK DRIVE.

0155 PM HEAVY RAIN CRYSTAL CITY 28.69N 99.83W
10/13/2013 E10.00 INCH ZAVALA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

OVER TEN INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN EIGHT HOURS.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW CRYSTAL CITY 28.62N 99.85W
10/13/2013 E9.00 INCH DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

OVER NINE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SIX HOURS.

0210 PM HEAVY RAIN BIG WELLS 28.57N 99.57W
10/13/2013 E7.10 INCH DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN SIX HOURS.

0220 PM FLASH FLOOD BIG WELLS 28.57N 99.57W
10/13/2013 DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

PARTS OF HIGHWAY 85 NEAR BILL WELLS ARE UNDER WATER.

0241 PM FLASH FLOOD EAGLE PASS 28.71N 100.49W
10/13/2013 MAVERICK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED IN EAGLE PASS DUE TO FLOODING
ALONG WITH SOME EVACUATIONS OF HOMES.

0344 PM FLASH FLOOD EAGLE PASS 28.71N 100.49W
10/13/2013 MAVERICK TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SOME EVACUATIONS IN MAVERICK COUNTY. SEVERAL ROADS
CLOSED IN AND AROUND EAGLE PASS. SOME MANHOLE COVERS
BLOWN OFF. ROAD DAMAGED BY FLOOD WATERS IN EAGLE PASS.

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.53N 99.86W
10/13/2013 M7.03 INCH DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL SINCE 10AM

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.53N 99.86W
10/13/2013 DIMMIT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEARLY ALL MAJOR ROADS IN DIMMIT COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. AMONG THESE ARE 1433...1407...1556 AND 468.
HWY 83 TO ASHERTON JUST RECENTLY OPENED.

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN CRYSTAL CITY 28.69N 99.83W
10/13/2013 M12.05 INCH ZAVALA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

RAINFALL AMOUNT AS OF 5PM. STREET FLOODING REPORTED.
SHELTER OPENED FOR SOME FLOOD WATER DISPLACED RESIDENTS.

0520 PM HEAVY RAIN BIG WELLS 28.57N 99.57W
10/13/2013 M9.50 INCH DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL AMOUNT SINCE NOON

0615 PM HEAVY RAIN CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.53N 99.86W
10/13/2013 M3.62 INCH DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL AMOUNT IS SINCE 4PM...THE TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE
7AM IS 10.65 INCHES

0745 PM FLASH FLOOD CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.53N 99.86W
10/13/2013 DIMMIT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 85 COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN FROM CARRIZO SPRINGS TO
DILLEY. ASSISTANCE HAS BEEN GIVEN TO A FEW STRANDED
MOTORISTS


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300594 EWX1300603 EWX1300595 EWX1300598 EWX1300596
EWX1300597 EWX1300617 EWX1300599 EWX1300605 EWX1300604 EWX1300602
EWX1300600 EWX1300601 EWX1300606 EWX1300609 EWX1300607 EWX1300608
EWX1300610 EWX1300611 EWX1300613 EWX1300612 EWX1300614 EWX1300619
EWX1300615 EWX1300616 EWX1300618

$$

SBS

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KEWX [140330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 140330
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN CRYSTAL CITY 28.69N 99.83W
10/13/2013 M12.05 INCH ZAVALA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

RAINFALL AMOUNT AS OF 5PM. STREET FLOODING REPORTED.
SHELTER OPENED FOR SOME FLOOD WATER DISPLACED RESIDENTS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300619

$$

SBS

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KCRP [140316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 140316
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1016 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 PM FLOOD 10 N FREER 28.03N 98.62W
10/13/2013 DUVAL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE DUVAL COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED FLOODING
ON A BRIDGE ALONG HIGHWAY 16 ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF FREER



&&

$$

GWILK

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 140302
FFGMPD
TXZ000-140700-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0279
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1101 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 140300Z - 140700Z

SUMMARY...A SLOW-MOVING MCS WILL BE ADVANCING GRADUALLY INTO AREAS
ALREADY IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINS EARLIER IN THE DAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AT LEAST LOCALLY.

DISCUSSION...A DYNAMICALLY FORCED COLD-TOPPED MCS INVOF A STALLED
OUT FRONTAL ZONE IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT OF WEST-CENTRAL TX.
THE LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DIV FLOW ALOFT ASSOCD WITH H25
RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND RELATED OUTFLOW FROM T.S. OCTAVE IN THE E PAC
SOUTH OF MEXICO. RATHER DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TOO GIVEN A
COMBINATION OF SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
SWLY MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW EMANATING FROM THE E PAC WITH T.S. OCTAVE
AND CROSSING MAINLAND MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION HOWEVER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES AT BEST BETWEEN 250 TO
500 J/KG INVOF THIS ACTIVITY AND EVEN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. THE PERSISTENT MCS FARTHER SOUTHEAST ADJACENT THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER IS HELPING TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTERCEPT AT LEAST
THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO CNTRL
TX. WHILE QUESTIONS INVOLVING THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE FORCED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD TEND TO PERSIST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GFS FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THE SELY
LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL AT LEAST
ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE STRONGER THERMODYNAMICS FOR SUSTAINABLE
CONVECTION. SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED.

SINCE THIS MCS WILL BE APPROACHING AREAS HIT HARD EARLIER IN THE
DAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31180232 31740155 32200088 32159992 31949914 31469881
30879902 30499968 30420066 30630192 31180232

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 140211
FFGMPD
TXZ000-140730-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0278
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1011 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 140210Z - 140730Z

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
GIVEN ALREADY LOCALLY SATURATED SOIL FROM EARLIER RAINFALL...THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED.

DISCUSSION...A COLD-TOPPED MCS CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KCOT.
AN OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY GENERATED BY CONVECTION MUCH
EARLY IN THE DAY HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED OUT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL BE TENDING TO BE REINFORCED WITH A VERY SLOW
SOUTHEAST ADVANCE. IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENTLY DIV FLOW
ALOFT IN ASSOC WITH H25 RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND OUTFLOW ASSOCD WITH
T.S. OCTAVE IN THE E PAC SOUTH OF MEXICO. A DEEP AMOUNT OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...WITH A COMBINATION OF SELY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SWLY
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW EMANATING FROM THE E PAC WITH T.S. OCTAVE AND
CROSSING MAINLAND MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OVER SOUTH TX
FEEDING INTO THE MCS WITH THE AID ESP OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE
THE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MODEST...THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE
YIELDING SUSTAINABLE DEEP LYR ASCENT...AND IT IS LIKELY AS A
RESULT THAT THE ONGOING MCS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
SUN...SOIL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LOCALLY SATURATED AND ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF
2 TO 3 INCHES/HR...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 28280052 28619956 29279827 29049713 28079701 27319779
26989869 26919951 27140025 27550068 28280052

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KCRP [140155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 140155
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM FLOOD COTULLA 28.44N 99.24W
10/13/2013 LA SALLE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MANY ROADS IN LA SALLE COUNTY FLOODED. HEAVY RAINFALL
STILL OCCURRING.


&&

$$

GWILK

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KCYS [140134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 140134
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
734 PM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 PM HAIL 7 NE CHEYENNE 41.22N 104.70W
10/13/2013 E0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERS THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF ONE INCH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KMAF [140124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140124
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
824 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD MIDLAND 32.00N 102.08W
10/13/2013 MIDLAND TX TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING REPORTED AT WADLEY AND MIDKIFF. WATER IS OVER
CURBS.


&&

$$

MH

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KMAF [140122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 140122
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
822 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD MIDLAND 32.00N 102.08W
10/13/2013 MIDLAND TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

FLOODING ACROSS ILLINOIS STREET FROM ANDREWS HIGHWAY TO
BIG SPRING STREET IN THE CITY OF MIDLAND


&&

$$

MH

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KEWX [140047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 140047
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
747 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM FLASH FLOOD CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.53N 99.86W
10/13/2013 DIMMIT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 85 COMPLETELY SHUTDOWN FROM CARRIZO SPRINGS TO
DILLEY. ASSISTANCE HAS BEEN GIVEN TO A FEW STRANDED
MOTORISTS


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300618

$$

SBS

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KEWX [140005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 140005
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD LOCKHART 29.87N 97.68W
10/13/2013 CALDWELL TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROADS AROUND THE COUNTY REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO
THE MORNING HEAVY RAINS


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300617

$$

SBS

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KEWX [132326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 132326
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HEAVY RAIN CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.53N 99.86W
10/13/2013 M3.62 INCH DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL AMOUNT IS SINCE 4PM...THE TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE
7AM IS 10.65 INCHES


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300616

$$

SBS

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KCRP [132313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 132313
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM FLOOD COTULLA 28.44N 99.24W
10/13/2013 LA SALLE TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FLOODING IN COTULLA AND ACROSS LA SALLE COUNTY. RISING
CREEKS AND WATER OVER THE ROADS IS CAUSING ROAD CLOSURES
ACROSS MANY FM ROADS...INCLUDING FM 468 AND FM 469.


&&

$$

LKEYS

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KEWX [132222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 132222
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
521 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HEAVY RAIN BIG WELLS 28.57N 99.57W
10/13/2013 M9.50 INCH DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL AMOUNT SINCE NOON


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300615

$$

SBS

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KEWX [132207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 132207
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
507 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.53N 99.86W
10/13/2013 DIMMIT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEARLY ALL MAJOR ROADS IN DIMMIT COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER. AMONG THESE ARE 1433...1407...1556 AND 468.
HWY 83 TO ASHERTON JUST RECENTLY OPENED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300614

$$

SBS

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KCRP [132151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 132151
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
450 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD COTULLA 28.44N 99.24W
10/13/2013 LA SALLE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD CLOSURES ALONG PORTIONS OF HWY 97 AND FM 624 IN
COTULLA...WITH 2 FEET OF WATER MOVING OVER THE ROADS.


&&

$$

LKEYS

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KEWX [132148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 132148
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
447 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM FLASH FLOOD EAGLE PASS 28.71N 100.49W
10/13/2013 MAVERICK TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SOME EVACUATIONS IN MAVERICK COUNTY. SEVERAL ROADS
CLOSED IN AND AROUND EAGLE PASS. SOME MANHOLE COVERS
BLOWN OFF. ROAD DAMAGED BY FLOOD WATERS IN EAGLE PASS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300613

$$

BF

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KEWX [132138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 132138
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
438 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.53N 99.86W
10/13/2013 M7.03 INCH DIMMIT TX CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL SINCE 10AM


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300612

$$

SBS

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KCHS [132134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 132134
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
533 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 N CHARLESTON 32.80N 79.93W
10/13/2013 CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

MINOR FLOODING OF SALTWATER DUE TO HIGH TIDE ON DRAKE
STREET AND COLUMBUS STREET. ROADWAYS REMAIN OPEN AND
PASSABLE. TIDE LEVEL WAS 6.29 FT MLLW AT THE TIME OF THE
REPORT.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300921

$$

JHP

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KLUB [131715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 131715
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM FLOOD TURKEY 34.39N 100.90W
10/13/2013 HALL TX PUBLIC

HWY 86 IN TURKEY FULLY COVERED IN WATER. PEA SIZE HAIL
2 INCHES DEEP COVERING THE GROUND ALSO REPORTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300445

$$

CALDRICH

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KHGX [131638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 131638
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 WSW HEMPSTEAD 30.08N 96.11W
10/13/2013 WALLER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CULVERT ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE WEST OF THE
RAILROAD TRACKS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300195

$$

KP

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 131630
FFGMPD
TXZ000-131958-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0276
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1229 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131628Z - 131958Z

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM W-CNTRL TX TOWARD THE
COASTAL PLAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR COT EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF PSX WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO
MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...FIRST TO THE NORTH OF A VCT TO SGR
LINE WHICH IR CLOUD TOPS HAVE INDICATED OVERALL WARMING/WEAKENING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SECOND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE OUTFLOW NEAR UVA. MORNING RAOBS SUPPORTED AN AXIS OF 15 TO 20
KTS AT 850 MB ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATED SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1000-2500 J/KG TO THE SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-2.25 IN
PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. CLOUD ELEMENTS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FEEDING INTO AND OVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNSTREAM OF
T.S. OCTAVE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE THREAT
AREA WHERE CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE THREAT
AREA...RENEWED DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BASED ON ONSET OF
STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN THE ALREADY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACTING AS AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
OF 3-4 IN/3 HRS...BELIEVE THESE VALUES COULD BE MET/EXCEEDED IN
SOME AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND UPDATED AS NEEDED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OTTO

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 28719548 28199617 27469686 27399781 27769884 28370018
28990073 30060101 31210100 31690061 31809990 31319931
30139843 30119708 30109544 29929460 29249456 28719548

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KEWX [131627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131627
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1126 AM FLASH FLOOD CRYSTAL CITY 28.69N 99.83W
10/13/2013 ZAVALA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED INCLUDING STARR STREET AND A WATER
RESCUE ON JFK DRIVE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300606

$$

PM

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KEWX [131619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131619
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1119 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 NNE UVALDE 29.31N 99.76W
10/13/2013 UVALDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY FM1051 CLOSED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300605

$$

PM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131617
SWODY1
SPC AC 131614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM THE BASE
OF THE EVOLVING WRN U.S. TROUGH. AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THESE WIND MAXIMA WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE DURING
THE D1 PERIOD...CONTRIBUTING TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM INTO THE ROCKIES BY 12Z MON. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM E-CNTRL INTO SWRN TX WILL SHIFT
POLEWARD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NERN CO/SERN WY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AND LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES.

...CNTRL SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINTAIN A SLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THIS FEATURING DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT TO 50+ KT. THIS
WILL HASTEN THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR
BENEATH A NWD-EXPANDING CIRRUS PLUME EMANATING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
OCTAVE WHICH WILL TEMPER THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
NONETHELESS...THE 12Z MAF SOUNDING DID SAMPLE THE PRESENCE OF
MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WERE CO-LOCATED WITH A
LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIO OF AROUND 11.5 G/KG. WHEN COUPLED
WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH STEADILY STRENGTHENING FLOW THROUGH
THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST OVER ERN NM/WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALONG THE AXIS OF THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST OF THE ROCKIES AFTER
14/06Z. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING WEAK INSTABILITY BUT STEADILY
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 10/13/2013

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KEWX [131613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131613
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1113 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM FLASH FLOOD DRIPPING SPRINGS 30.19N 98.09W
10/13/2013 HAYS TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED AROUND WIMBERLEY... DRIFTWOOD AND
DRIPPING SPRINGS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300604

$$

PM

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KEWX [131611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131611
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM FLASH FLOOD KYLE 29.99N 97.87W
10/13/2013 HAYS TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED AROUND BUDA AND KYLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300603

$$

PM

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KEWX [131551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 131551
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM FLASH FLOOD LOCKHART 29.87N 97.68W
10/13/2013 CALDWELL TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MANY ROADS ACROSS CALDWELL COUNTY HAVE WATER OVER THEM.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300602

$$

PM

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KEWX [131550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 131550
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1050 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD LOCKHART 29.87N 97.68W
10/13/2013 CALDWELL TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MANY ROADS ACROSS CALDWELL COUNTY HAVE WATER OVER THEM.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300602

$$

PM

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KEWX [131542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131542
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD LOCKHART 29.87N 97.68W
10/13/2013 CALDWELL TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MANY ROADS ACROSS CALDWELL COUNTY HAVE WATE OVER THEM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300602

$$

PM

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KJAN [131530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 131530
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1029 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1254 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW WILMOT 33.03N 91.60W
10/12/2013 ASHLEY AR UTILITY COMPANY

REPORTS THAT A POWERLINE BROKE ON HIGHWAY 165 NEAR
WILMOT.


&&

$$

DCOX

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KEWX [131505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131505
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1005 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE ANDERSON MILL 30.46N 97.79W
10/13/2013 M4.35 INCH WILLIAMSON TX COCORAHS

4.35 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300601

$$

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KEWX [131503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131503
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N MCQUEENEY 29.62N 98.05W
10/13/2013 M2.05 INCH GUADALUPE TX COCORAHS

2.05 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300600

$$

PM

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KPIH [131436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 131436
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
836 AM MDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 33 WNW ARCO 45.75N 113.93W
10/13/2013 E3.3 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

BEAR CANYON SNOTEL 7903 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 12 NNW KETCHUM 43.77N 114.42W
10/13/2013 E0.6 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

CHOCOLATE GULCH SNOTEL 6440 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 30 SW BURLEY 42.17N 114.20W
10/13/2013 E0.3 INCH CASSIA ID MESONET

BOSTETTER R.S. SNOTEL 7503 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 17 SE ALMO 41.92N 113.42W
10/13/2013 E8.6 INCH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GEORGE CREEK SNOTEL 8994 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 18 SE BURLEY 42.32N 113.62W
10/13/2013 E0.7 INCH CASSIA ID MESONET

HOWELL CANYON SNOTEL 7982 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 11 ENE HAILEY 43.72N 114.17W
10/13/2013 E1.3 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

HYNDMAN SNOTEL 7440 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 10 NW KETCHUM 43.82N 114.27W
10/13/2013 E1.9 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

LOST WOOD DIVIDE SNOTEL 7903 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 17 SW MACKAY 43.73N 113.83W
10/13/2013 E3.8 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

SMILEY MOUNTAIN SNOTEL 9520 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 50 NW ARCO 43.87N 114.22W
10/13/2013 E2.4 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

STICKNEY MILL SNOTEL 7431 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 21 ENE HAILEY 43.63N 113.97W
10/13/2013 E0.7 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

SWEDE PEAK SNOTEL 7641 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 22 NW KETCHUM 43.80N 114.85W
10/13/2013 E1.8 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

VIENNA MINE SNOTEL 8963 MSL. 11-HOUR TOTAL.

$$

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KSJT [131433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 131433
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
932 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0932 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE WALL 31.40N 100.27W
10/13/2013 M5.30 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

5.30 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED SINCE 7 AM. WIDESPREAD
FLOODING REPORTED IN THE WALL AREA.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300438

$$

JOHNSON

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KSEW [131430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 131430
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
730 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0718 AM DENSE FOG AUBURN 47.30N 122.21W
10/13/2013 KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY 300 FEET


&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

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KHGX [131428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 131428
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
928 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD SEALY 29.77N 96.15W
10/13/2013 AUSTIN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 36 AT HIGHWAY 90 IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE IN
SEALY. SEVERAL ROADS THROUGHOUT AUSTIN COUNTY HAVE WATER
COVERING THE ROAD... SOME ARE PASSABLE AND SOME ARE
IMPASSABLE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300194

$$

PK

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KSJT [131408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 131408
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
908 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM FLOOD 3 ENE WALL 31.39N 100.26W
10/13/2013 TOM GREEN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING OF LOCAL ROADS. RAIN GAUGE HAS 5 TO 6 INCHES
OF WATER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300437

$$

DOLL

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KSJT [131339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 131339
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
839 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM TSTM WND GST 1 ESE WALL 31.37N 100.29W
10/13/2013 M61 MPH TOM GREEN TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1300436

$$

JOHNSON

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 131310
FFGMPD
TXZ000-131500-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0275
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
909 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131308Z - 131500Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING IN
A BROAD SENSE HAS PEAKED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS..THOUGH NEW AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUTSIDE
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EASTERN
PORTION OF MCS CONTINUING TO DROP SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY..WHILE WESTERN PORTION OF BOUNDARY
HAS BECOME A BIT MORE STATIONARY OR EVEN RETREATED A BIT NORTHWARD
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LATEST MESO ANAYLYIS SHOWS DECENT AREA
OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION WITH SOME VERY
HIGH SFC DEWPOINT AIR CONTINUING TO FEED NWWD INTO THE CONVECTION
FRMO THE TX COAST REGION. IN ADDITION...HIGH MSTR FROM
SUBTROPICAL JET FEEDING ACRS MEX AND TAPPING HIGH LEVEL MSTR FROM
T.S. OCTAVE IS HELPING TO SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 1 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS EASTERN PORTION OF ONGOING MCS REMAINING
ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE MID/UPR TX COAST TOWARD LATE MORNING...WHILE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED WITH WIDER COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TEXAS BY LATER THIS MORNING. FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY
RATHER HIGH...BUT WITH OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES ALREADY UP TO 2.5
INCHES/HR...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING...AT LEAST LOCALLY.

SULLIVAN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 30609655 30099515 29349514 28439635 28599735 28899811
29099967 29110057 30940029 30849920 30709806 30609655

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KEWX [131306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131306
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
806 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM FLASH FLOOD SUNSET VALLEY 30.23N 97.81W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL WATER RESCUES NEAR SUNSET VALLEY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300599

$$

PM

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KEWX [131258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131258
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
758 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0631 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSE ROLLINGWOOD 30.26N 97.78W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES ON GOING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300598

$$

PM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131242
SWODY1
SPC AC 131240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE AND N/W OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITHIN THE
TROUGH...STRONG SIERRA VORT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE SRN GRT BASIN
TODAY BEFORE TURNING E TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY MON.

APPROACH OF THE GRT BASIN VORT WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGHING OVER THE
SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EMERGING OVER NE
CO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL SELY
FLOW E OF THE LEE TROUGH WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD NW
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS...INCREASING CHANCES FOR A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY MON.

...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MON...
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS
THROUGH MON AS GRT BASIN TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK MERGES WITH BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW ON NW SIDE OF GULF RIDGE.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AT THE SFC WILL STRENGTHEN
EXISTING SELY LOW-LVL FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO REGION.

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN ABOUT NEUTRAL OVER ERN NM/SE CO
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY EARLY TNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW-LVL WAA AND UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN. COUPLED WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION...SETUP SHOULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCTD TSTMS ON WRN EDGE OF MOIST
AXIS...WHERE SFC HEATING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP. CLOUDS WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT MAGNITUDE AND AREAL
EXTENT OF BUOYANCY...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 750 J/KG. IN
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG TO SVR
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SVR HAIL...BUT OVERALL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SLGT ATTM.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER CNTRL HIGH PLNS...AND AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS FROM THE W...EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER ERN CO/WRN KS/WRN NEB
LATER TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON. WHILE A RISK FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH ANY STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...DEGREE OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN AN ISOLD RISK
FOR SVR WEATHER.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/13/2013

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KEWX [131242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131242
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
742 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 ESE SUNSET VALLEY 30.21N 97.77W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MAJOR FLOODING ALONG WILLIAMSON CREEK NEAR HEARTWOOD
DRIVE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300597

$$

PM

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 131233
FFGMPD
TXZ000-131500-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0275
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
833 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131232Z - 131500Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING IN
A BROAD SENSE HAS PEAKED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS..THOUGH NEW AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUTSIDE
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EASTERN
PORTION OF MCS CONTINUING TO DROP SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY..WHILE WESTERN PORTION OF BOUNDARY
HAS BECOME A BIT MORE STATIONARY OR EVEN RETREATED A BIT NORTHWARD
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LATEST MESO ANAYLYIS SHOWS DECENT AREA
OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION WITH SOME VERY
HIGH SFC DEWPOINT AIR CONTINUING TO FEED NWWD INTO THE CONVECTION
FRMO THE TX COAST REGION. IN ADDITION...HIGH MSTR FROM
SUBTROPICAL JET FEEDING ACRS MEX AND TAPPING HIGH LEVEL MSTR FROM
T.S. OCTAVE IS HELPING TO SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 1 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS EASTERN PORTION OF ONGOING MCS REMAINING
ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE MID/UPR TX COAST TOWARD LATE MORNING...WHILE ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED WITH WIDER COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TEXAS BY LATER THIS MORNING. FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY
RATHER HIGH...BUT WITH OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES ALREADY UP TO 2.5
INCHES/HR...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING...AT LEAST LOCALLY.

SULLIVAN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31619960 30909860 30689757 30669635 30669540 30039503
29939492 29259523 28699643 28939831 29129941 28940032
29190129 29480148 30010118 30720104 31660042 31619960

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KEWX [131219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131219
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
719 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 10 S PFLUGERVILLE 30.30N 97.62W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE CLOSED AROUND THE CITY
OF AUSTIN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300596

$$

PM

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KEWX [131201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131201
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
701 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S SUNSET VALLEY 30.21N 97.82W
10/13/2013 E4.00 INCH TRAVIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN SIX HOURS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300595

$$

PM

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 130911
FFGMPD
TXZ000-131345-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0274
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
510 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 130900Z - 131345Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER HEAVY RAINS
PAST SUNRISE WHILE SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AT LEAST LOCALLY.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A BKN COLD-TOPPED MCS
ADVANCING VERY SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SERN TX
OUT AHEAD OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE. THE CONVECTION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS COMPARED TO THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. IN FACT...THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME
IMPRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE MCS CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MEANWHILE IS BEING
COMPLEMENTED BY LARGER SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCD WITH H25 RRQ
JET DYNAMICS INVOLVING THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS ENERGY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW ASSOCD WITH T.S. OCTAVE IN THE E PAC SOUTH
OF MEXICO. HIGHER LVL MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE T.S. AND VORT
ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET CORE ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION.

GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THE
MCS MAY MAINTAIN SOME ORGANIZATION THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING AND MERGING CONVECTIVE
CELLS. GOES-SOUNDER PWATS RANGE FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...AND THIS
WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY
RATHER HIGH...BUT WITH OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES ALREADY UP TO 2.5
INCHES/HR...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING...AT LEAST LOCALLY.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31549895 31219788 31119687 31089593 30979530 30529488
29979487 29499514 29059574 28929660 28909757 28849853
28649953 28560023 28800098 29480148 30170090 30880063
31350023 31579958 31549895

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130905
SWOD48
SPC AC 130904

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/ BEFORE
EJECTING THROUGH NERN STATES THURSDAY /DAY 5/. AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND NERN U.S. DAYS 4-5 WITH TRAILING PORTIONS MOVING THROUGH
THE SERN STATES...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIMITED WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES...AND
GIVEN POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THESE LIMITING FACTORS SHOULD
PRECLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN DAYS 4-5.

DAYS 6-8 A SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION DAY 6 AS
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN THROUGH WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/13/2013

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 130900
FFGMPD
TXZ000-131345-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0274
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 130900Z - 131345Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER HEAVY RAINS
PAST SUNRISE WHILE SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AT LEAST LOCALLY.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A BKN COLD-TOPPED MCS
ADVANCING VERY SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SERN TX
OUT AHEAD OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL ZONE. THE CONVECTION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT AS COMPARED TO THE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. IN FACT...THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME
IMPRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE MCS CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MEANWHILE IS BEING
COMPLEMENTED BY LARGER SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCD WITH H25 RRQ
JET DYNAMICS INVOLVING THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS ENERGY IS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW ASSOCD WITH T.D. 15-E IN THE E PAC SOUTH
OF MEXICO. HIGHER LVL MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE T.D. AND VORT
ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET CORE ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION.

GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THE
MCS MAY MAINTAIN SOME ORGANIZATION THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING AND MERGING CONVECTIVE
CELLS. GOES-SOUNDER PWATS RANGE FROM 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...AND THIS
WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY
RATHER HIGH...BUT WITH OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES ALREADY UP TO 2.5
INCHES/HR...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING...AT LEAST LOCALLY.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31549895 31219788 31119687 31089593 30979530 30529488
29979487 29499514 29059574 28929660 28909757 28849853
28649953 28560023 28800098 29480148 30170090 30880063
31350023 31579958 31549895

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130732
SWODY3
SPC AC 130730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. SFC LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EWD AND SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...MID-LOWER
MS VALLEY AND TX.

...CNTRL THROUGH SWRN TX AREA...

INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG
WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN TX THROUGH THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 WILL RESIDE IN TX WARM SECTOR BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER...LIKELY BOOSTING MLCAPE TO 1500
J/KG. STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE
TX WARM SECTOR WITH RELATIVELY WEAK-MODEST SWLY FLOW FROM THE SFC
THROUGH 500 MB AND VERTICAL SHEAR AOB 30 KT. A FEW STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
CNTRL THROUGH SWRN TX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. MULTICELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN
5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...MIDWEST THROUGH GREAT LAKES...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARMS SECTOR.
HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/13/2013

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KEWX [130715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 130715
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
214 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW AUSTIN 30.29N 97.77W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX MESONET

THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE CLOSED...BEE CAVES
ROAD...6334 JOE TANNER...5003 WASSON AND 10131 DAVID
MOORE.


&&

$$

JME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130557
SWODY1
SPC AC 130555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING EWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS. PHASING OF A SRN STREAM UPPER JET WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROMOTE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEEPENING LEE SFC LOW OVER NERN CO. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER
E...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY.

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...WILL
PROMOTE STRENGTHENING SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ALONG/E
OF A LEE SFC TROUGH...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
THIS EVENING.

MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NEUTRAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
/E.G. AOB 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ BY COOL SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER...STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT
A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES SPREADING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MORE
SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AND SUPPORT PRIMARILY
ELEVATED TSTMS INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF TSTMS PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL RISK UPGRADE.

..ROGERS/GARNER.. 10/13/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130558
SWODY2
SPC AC 130557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL
KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL
REACH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL
LIFT NEWD THROUGH NEB WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY
MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION.

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD FROM TX THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN PLUME
OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING
A STRONG SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD DURING THE
DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NEGATIVELY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. IN WAKE OF EARLY
STORMS...A CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC WARMING MAY OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS MIX
OUT IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB
SWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST /500-1000 J/KG/
MLCAPE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG SEWD SURGING
COLD FRONT AND ALONG DRYLINE-COLD FRONT MERGER WHERE STRONG /45-50
KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS BUT WITH UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH LIKELY. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THROUGH
CNTRL NEB AND KS. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE IMPACT
OF ONGOING STORMS AND CLOUDS...BUT AT LEAST A LOW END SLIGHT RISK
SEEMS WARRANTED WHERE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 10/13/2013

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KEWX [130550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 130550
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1250 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM FLASH FLOOD PFLUGERVILLE 30.44N 97.62W
10/13/2013 TRAVIS TX PUBLIC

PD REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS NOT
PASSABLE IN THE CITY DUE TO RISING WATER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300594

$$

JME

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KLCH [130501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 130501
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 20 S JOHNSONS BAYOU 29.48N 93.64W
10/12/2013 M39 MPH GMZ450 LA AWOS


&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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