DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130558
SWODY2
SPC AC 130557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL
KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL
REACH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL
LIFT NEWD THROUGH NEB WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY
MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION.

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD FROM TX THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN PLUME
OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING
A STRONG SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD DURING THE
DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NEGATIVELY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. IN WAKE OF EARLY
STORMS...A CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC WARMING MAY OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS MIX
OUT IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB
SWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST /500-1000 J/KG/
MLCAPE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG SEWD SURGING
COLD FRONT AND ALONG DRYLINE-COLD FRONT MERGER WHERE STRONG /45-50
KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS BUT WITH UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH LIKELY. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THROUGH
CNTRL NEB AND KS. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE IMPACT
OF ONGOING STORMS AND CLOUDS...BUT AT LEAST A LOW END SLIGHT RISK
SEEMS WARRANTED WHERE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 10/13/2013

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