Friday, October 28, 2011

KKEY [290226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 290226
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/28/2011 M40.00 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WAS RECORDED BY THE MOLASSES REEF LIGHT
C-MAN STATION AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER THE SENSOR.


&&

$$

NELSON

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KMFL [290218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 290218
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1018 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 PM FLASH FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
10/28/2011 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED FLOODED ROADWAYS.
400 BLOCK OF S. CONGRESS AVE, LYNTON ROAD AND CONGRESS,
600 BLOCK OF LINDELL BLVD, SOUTH BOUND MILITARY TRAIL AND
ATLANTIC AVE AND CONGRESS.CARS ARE STRANDED AT THESE
LOCATIONS.


&&

$$

EBAUGH

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KMFL [290151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 290151
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0948 PM HEAVY RAIN W BOYNTON BEACH 26.53N 80.09W
10/28/2011 M3.00 INCH PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER NUMBER PB41 WEST BOYNTON BLVD/JOG ROAD REPORTED 3
INCHES IN 1 HOUR 10 MINUTES


&&

$$

EBAUGH

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KMFL [290105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 290105
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
905 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 PM FLOOD BOCA WEST 26.38N 80.16W
10/28/2011 PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER AND SHERRIFS OFFICE REPORTS WATER OVER CURB LEVEL
AT LYONS AND GLADES ROAD.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290042
SWODY1
SPC AC 290040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK AS OF
29/00-01Z. BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE
THAT AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND OR
ABOVE 30 KT. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY ENLARGE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ABOVE THE INVERSION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION...AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO YIELD CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING BY THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 10/29/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2275

ACUS11 KWNS 282236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282235
FLZ000-290100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL...FL KEYS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 282235Z - 290100Z

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 IN/HR
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

...HEAVY RAINFALL...
MASSES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE MOVING EWD/NEWD OVER THE SERN GULF OF
MEXICO...POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNSTREAM-SHEARED MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY EMANATING FROM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA /REFERENCE FINAL
NHC ADVISORY ON RINA FOR FURTHER DETAILS/. LATE AFTERNOON
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD OF THE ATTENDANT
SFC CIRCULATION TOWARD MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY INTO ERN PALM BEACH
COUNTY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY...AND MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WILL FOSTER SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GPS DATA SUGGEST
AN INFLUX OF ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PW
VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES OF 2 IN/HR POSSIBLE. WHILE KEY WEST
VWP DATA DEPICT WSWLY FLOW OF 25-35 KT AOA 5 KM AGL YIELDING MODEST
STORM MOTIONS...THIS FLOW IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH TO SUPPORT TRAINING CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...SELY TO SLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT BELOW 3 KM AGL WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL...CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WARM-CLOUD-LAYER DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4 KM PER
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLLISION-COALESCENCE PROCESS WILL
FAVOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES...AS WELL.

...SEVERE POTENTIAL...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KT MAY SUPPORT
OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. GUSTY WINDS...A COUPLE OF
BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND MARINE WATERSPOUTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL-LIKE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL GREATLY MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS IS
AFFIRMED BY THE ABSENCE OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL ROTATION OR
CONVERGENCE NOTED WITH DISCRETE CONVECTION CROSSING PARTS OF NRN
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

..COHEN.. 10/28/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 27288034 26677993 25738006 25088033 24568103 24428180
24518205 24698203 24818163 25088136 25348130 25648148
26108185 26848178 27328118 27288034

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281941
SWODY1
SPC AC 281940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z.

..BROYLES.. 10/28/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE TN
VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NE GULF
COAST...AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVERNIGHT JUST OFF THE
NC COAST. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
INVOF THE COLD FRONT...AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
WEAK INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE DEEP
MOIST PLUME OVER CENTRAL/S FL TO THE NE OF WEAKENING TD RINA /SEE
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF E SHORE OF LAKE
MI...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BUOYANCY
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.

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KMFL [281907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 281907
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
307 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM WATER SPOUT 4 E MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.07W
10/28/2011 AMZ651 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

MIAMI OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED A WATERSPOUT EAST OF FISHER
ISLAND, MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST


&&

$$

EBAUGH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281702
SWODY2
SPC AC 281700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND
MIDDAY. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE INSTABILITY FORECAST SHOULD NOT BE
GREAT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS FL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS LAKE HURON
AND LAKE ERIE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE WARM LAKE WATER AND
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.

..BROYLES.. 10/28/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281628
SWODY1
SPC AC 281626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE TN
VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NE GULF
COAST...AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVERNIGHT JUST OFF THE
NC COAST. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
INVOF THE COLD FRONT...AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
WEAK INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE DEEP
MOIST PLUME OVER CENTRAL/S FL TO THE NE OF WEAKENING TD RINA /SEE
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF E SHORE OF LAKE
MI...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BUOYANCY
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 10/28/2011

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KJKL [281600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 281600
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM SLEET ISLAND CITY 37.37N 83.77W
10/28/2011 E0.00 INCH OWSLEY KY NWS EMPLOYEE

A LITTLE SLEET MIXING WITH RAIN.


&&

$$

JCARICO

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KJKL [281600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 281600
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1159 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 AM SLEET EUBANK 37.28N 84.65W
10/28/2011 E0.00 INCH PULASKI KY TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME SLEET MIXING WITH RAIN.


&&

$$

JCARICO

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KGRR [281244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 281244
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
844 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM SNOW 2 SE SCOTTVILLE 43.93N 86.25W
10/28/2011 M0.0 INCH MASON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

1ST SNOWFALL REPORT OF SEASON. ONLY A DUSTING SO FAR.


&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281238
SWODY1
SPC AC 281236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN U.S...

A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES WILL
SHARPEN THIS PERIOD AS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS PHASE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS APPROACHING 50-100 M PER 12-HR E OF THE MS VALLEY BY 29/12Z.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER SERN LA WILL DEVELOP
ENEWD TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DE-AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF FL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
ALONG AND S OF A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA TODAY.
HERE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S AND PW VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. WHILE FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ATOP A STABLE...POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...ROOTED WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT BASED
AROUND 850 MB.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/28/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280824
SWOD48
SPC AC 280824

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY WNWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A PROPENSITY
FOR TROUGHS TO DIG ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MEAN WRN TROUGH BEGINNING ABOUT D5 THROUGH
D8.

RELATIVELY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR
D4-D5...BUT SOME THREAT MAY EXIST BY WED/D6 AS MODELS SHOW A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE PLAINS STATES. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE AREAS.
HOWEVER...ANY LARGE TROUGH FAVORABLY TIMED TO AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS
WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS MORE POTENTIAL THAN THE GFS MEMBERS...WHICH IS
USUALLY THE PREFERRED MODEL SO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST RUNS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS SOLUTION DOES COME TO
PASS...THE OVERALL SEVERE SETUP WOULD LIKELY BE MARGINAL.

..JEWELL.. 10/28/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280541
SWODY1
SPC AC 280539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES
APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND BECOME A FOCUS
FOR INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN INITIAL WAVE MAY
MIGRATE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW LIFTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE... LIKELY
THE INITIATION OF MUCH STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT PROBABLY
WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...IS PROGGED TO FORM NEAR
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A SERIES OF DIGGING
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES CONTRIBUTE TO AN AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH NEAR THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE...AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MAINTAINS GENERALLY
STABLE CONDITIONS. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD BE ONE
EXCEPTION...AS VERY MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE
LOWER LATITUDES. LAPSE RATES MAY REMAIN POOR...BUT WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND PERHAPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WARM
MID-LEVELS AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR STILL SEEM LIKELY TO
MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

FARTHER NORTH...MODELS ALSO INDICATE WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ABOVE A COLD SURFACE BASED LAYER...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AND MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 10/28/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 280534
SWODY3
SPC AC 280533

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE NWLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MULTIPLE NOTABLE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...BUT PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL HAMPER RETURN FLOW
TRAJECTORIES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY UPPER SYSTEM...RESULTING IN LITTLE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE LONE AREA WHERE ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IS OVER
SRN FL WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN...BUT LAPSE RATE
PROFILES WILL BE SO POOR THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM MAY NOT
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

..JEWELL.. 10/28/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280521
SWODY2
SPC AC 280520

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON SAT WITH A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. ONE STRONG TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE ERN GREAT LAKES WITH BASAL JET MAX INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
DURING THE DAY. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY
MAY RESULT IN WEAK LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD
ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. HERE...LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL
ACTIVATE STORMS WITH MAINLY JUST A RAIN THREAT. WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL
VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL EXIST...OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED
WITH TROPICAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY TYPE OF SEVERE.

..JEWELL.. 10/28/2011

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