SWOD48
SPC AC 280824
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY WNWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A PROPENSITY
FOR TROUGHS TO DIG ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MEAN WRN TROUGH BEGINNING ABOUT D5 THROUGH
D8.
RELATIVELY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR
D4-D5...BUT SOME THREAT MAY EXIST BY WED/D6 AS MODELS SHOW A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE PLAINS STATES. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE AREAS.
HOWEVER...ANY LARGE TROUGH FAVORABLY TIMED TO AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS
WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS MORE POTENTIAL THAN THE GFS MEMBERS...WHICH IS
USUALLY THE PREFERRED MODEL SO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST RUNS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS SOLUTION DOES COME TO
PASS...THE OVERALL SEVERE SETUP WOULD LIKELY BE MARGINAL.
..JEWELL.. 10/28/2011
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