KCYS [020402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 020402
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
902 PM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM SNOW 5 SE BUFORD 41.06N 105.23W
12/01/2009 M1.0 INCH LARAMIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0841 PM SNOW MEDICINE BOW 41.90N 106.20W
12/01/2009 M3.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0847 PM SNOW RAWLINS 41.78N 107.23W
12/01/2009 M1.0 INCH CARBON WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0852 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
12/01/2009 M0.5 INCH LARAMIE WY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KRIW [020401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 020401
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
900 PM MDT TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0714 PM SNOW THERMOPOLIS (TOWN) 43.64N 108.20W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 PM SNOW TEN SLEEP 4NE 44.06N 107.38W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0716 PM SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.37W
12/01/2009 M1.50 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0717 PM SNOW LANDER 1 S 42.80N 108.72W
12/01/2009 M2.60 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

LANDER AIRPORT

0718 PM SNOW KIRBY 43.80N 108.18W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY PUBLIC

0719 PM SNOW CODY 44.52N 109.06W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0719 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 44.15N 108.87W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES PARK WY EMERGENCY MNGR

0720 PM SNOW CRANDALL CREEK 44.86N 109.64W
12/01/2009 M2.30 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0720 PM SNOW WORLAND 44.01N 107.94W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0721 PM SNOW BUFFALO 44.35N 106.69W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES JOHNSON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM SNOW KAYCEE 43.70N 106.63W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM SNOW EDGERTON 43.41N 106.25W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0723 PM SNOW MIDWEST 43.41N 106.27W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0727 PM SNOW LANDER 42.84N 108.72W
12/01/2009 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0728 PM SNOW HUDSON 42.89N 108.58W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0736 PM SNOW DUBOIS 43.53N 109.64W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0737 PM SNOW HILAND 43.11N 107.34W
12/01/2009 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0737 PM SNOW CASPER 10SW 42.75N 106.49W
12/01/2009 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0738 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER 43.03N 106.98W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0739 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER 43.03N 106.98W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM SNOW ALCOVA 2NNE 42.58N 106.70W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM SNOW INDEPENDENCE ROCK 4SW 42.44N 107.19W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM SNOW LYSITE 12NE 43.34N 107.48W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM SNOW LYSITE 43.26N 107.68W
12/01/2009 M0.20 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0742 PM SNOW CASPER 11W 42.89N 106.51W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0742 PM SNOW MILLS 11W 42.85N 106.58W
12/01/2009 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0742 PM SNOW CASPER 42.84N 106.27W
12/01/2009 M2.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0743 PM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.25W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0743 PM SNOW CASPER 3E 42.82N 106.28W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0744 PM SNOW MILLS 42.84N 106.38W
12/01/2009 M2.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM SNOW CASPER 3SW 42.79N 106.33W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM SNOW CASPER 7SSW 42.77N 106.35W
12/01/2009 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0746 PM SNOW CASPER 7S 42.76N 106.31W
12/01/2009 M4.80 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0746 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 7 S 42.73N 106.33W
12/01/2009 M6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER MOUNTAIN

0747 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 7 S 42.75N 106.32W
12/01/2009 M7.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER MOUNTAIN

0747 PM SNOW CASPER AIRPORT 42.88N 106.42W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0748 PM SNOW MILLS 2SW 42.83N 106.25W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0749 PM SNOW CASPER 42.82N 106.28W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0749 PM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.28W
12/01/2009 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0758 PM SNOW RIVERTON 10NW 43.13N 108.50W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0849 PM SNOW DARWIN RANCH 43.41N 110.15W
12/01/2009 M1.40 INCHES TETON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0849 PM SNOW DANIEL 8N 42.98N 110.07W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES SUBLETTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0850 PM SNOW ALPINE 43.18N 111.03W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KCYS [020309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KCYS 020309 CCA
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
808 PM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 PM SNOW WHEATLAND 42.05N 104.96W
12/01/2009 M0.2 INCH PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0730 PM SNOW DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
12/01/2009 M0.8 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0800 PM SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
12/01/2009 M0.5 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0802 PM SNOW GLENROCK 42.86N 105.86W
12/01/2009 M1.5 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0804 PM SNOW TORRINGTON 42.07N 104.18W
12/01/2009 M0.5 INCH GOSHEN WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [020308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 020308
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
808 PM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 PM SNOW WHEATLAND 42.05N 104.96W
12/01/2009 M0.2 INCH PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0730 PM SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
12/01/2009 M0.8 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0730 PM SNOW DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
12/01/2009 M0.8 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0800 PM SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
12/01/2009 M0.5 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0802 PM SNOW GLENROCK 42.86N 105.86W
12/01/2009 M1.5 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0804 PM SNOW TORRINGTON 42.07N 104.18W
12/01/2009 M0.5 INCH GOSHEN WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KRIW [020258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 020258
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
758 PM MDT TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0714 PM SNOW THERMOPOLIS (TOWN) 43.64N 108.20W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 PM SNOW TEN SLEEP 4NE 44.06N 107.38W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0716 PM SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.37W
12/01/2009 M1.50 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0717 PM SNOW LANDER 1 S 42.80N 108.72W
12/01/2009 M2.60 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

LANDER AIRPORT

0718 PM SNOW KIRBY 43.80N 108.18W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY PUBLIC

0719 PM SNOW CODY 44.52N 109.06W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0719 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 44.15N 108.87W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES PARK WY EMERGENCY MNGR

0720 PM SNOW CRANDALL CREEK 44.86N 109.64W
12/01/2009 M2.30 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0720 PM SNOW WORLAND 44.01N 107.94W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0721 PM SNOW BUFFALO 44.35N 106.69W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES JOHNSON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM SNOW KAYCEE 43.70N 106.63W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM SNOW EDGERTON 43.41N 106.25W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0723 PM SNOW MIDWEST 43.41N 106.27W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0727 PM SNOW LANDER 42.84N 108.72W
12/01/2009 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0728 PM SNOW HUDSON 42.89N 108.58W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0736 PM SNOW DUBOIS 43.53N 109.64W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0737 PM SNOW HILAND 43.11N 107.34W
12/01/2009 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0737 PM SNOW CASPER 10SW 42.75N 106.49W
12/01/2009 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0738 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER 43.03N 106.98W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0739 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER 43.03N 106.98W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM SNOW ALCOVA 2NNE 42.58N 106.70W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM SNOW INDEPENDENCE ROCK 4SW 42.44N 107.19W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM SNOW LYSITE 12NE 43.34N 107.48W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0741 PM SNOW LYSITE 43.26N 107.68W
12/01/2009 M0.20 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0742 PM SNOW CASPER 11W 42.89N 106.51W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0742 PM SNOW MILLS 11W 42.85N 106.58W
12/01/2009 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0742 PM SNOW CASPER 42.84N 106.27W
12/01/2009 M2.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0743 PM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.25W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0743 PM SNOW CASPER 3E 42.82N 106.28W
12/01/2009 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0744 PM SNOW MILLS 42.84N 106.38W
12/01/2009 M2.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM SNOW CASPER 3SW 42.79N 106.33W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM SNOW CASPER 7SSW 42.77N 106.35W
12/01/2009 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0746 PM SNOW CASPER 7S 42.76N 106.31W
12/01/2009 M4.80 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0746 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 7 S 42.73N 106.33W
12/01/2009 M6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER MOUNTAIN

0747 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 7 S 42.75N 106.32W
12/01/2009 M7.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER MOUNTAIN

0747 PM SNOW CASPER AIRPORT 42.88N 106.42W
12/01/2009 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0748 PM SNOW MILLS 2SW 42.83N 106.25W
12/01/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0749 PM SNOW CASPER 42.82N 106.28W
12/01/2009 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0749 PM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.28W
12/01/2009 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KEWX [020232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 020232
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
832 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 SE CEDAR CREEK 29.99N 97.42W
12/01/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SANDHILLS RD HAD REPORTED 6 INCHES OF WATER... ONE CAR
ROLLED OVER... RESCUE WAS MADE AND NO INJURIES. ROADWAY
IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900191

$$

AKF

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KFGF [020229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 020229
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
828 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM SNOW 2 NW ROSEAU 48.87N 95.79W
12/01/2009 M5.3 INCH ROSEAU MN PUBLIC

MEASURED RANGE OF 5 TO 5.5 INCHES AS OF 725 PM

0745 PM SNOW GREENBUSH 48.70N 96.18W
12/01/2009 E5.0 INCH ROSEAU MN PUBLIC

TOTAL AS OF 745 PM

0750 PM SNOW WARROAD 48.91N 95.32W
12/01/2009 E4.0 INCH ROSEAU MN PUBLIC

TOTAL AS OF 750 PM

0752 PM SNOW BAUDETTE 48.71N 94.59W
12/01/2009 E5.5 INCH LAKE OF THE WOODS MN PUBLIC

RANGE OF 5 TO 6 INCHES FOR TOTAL AS OF 752 PM

0435 PM SNOW HALLOCK 48.77N 96.94W
12/01/2009 M3.8 INCH KITTSON MN CO-OP OBSERVER

TOTAL AS OF 445 PM

&&

$$

VJPEARCE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020057
SWODY1
SPC AC 020056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN LA AND
SERN MS TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...GULF COAST AREA...
THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS BEING EXTENDED WWD TO
INCLUDE COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS CHANGE IN THE
OUTLOOK TAKES INTO ACCOUNT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY FORMING OFFSHORE OF DEEP
S TX...MOVES INTO THIS REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z. THE REST OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDING EWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/FAR SRN AL IS
BEING MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 06-12Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SLIGHT RISK.

EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WNWWD INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
/E OF BVE/ WHERE IT INTERSECTS TWO BOUNDARIES 1) EXTENDING EWD INTO
NRN FL PENINSULA AND 2) EXTENDING NEWD TO SWRN AL. MEANWHILE...THE
WARM FRONT THEN EXTENDED SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE NWRN
GULF /NEAR BUOY 42361/. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM SWRN MS THROUGH SWRN LA INTO THE FAR WRN GULF...WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE DEEP S TX COAST THIS
EVENING. THE LATTER SURFACE LOW WILL BE TIED TO STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INDICATED BY RECENT
INCREASE IN LIGHTNING/ COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER MIDDLE/S TX COAST.

THE CURRENT SUBSYNOPTIC LOWS E OF BVE AND NEAR BUOY 42361 ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING INTO SWRN AL. THE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING WELL INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF
COAST STATES...N OF THE ONGOING GULF TSTM COMPLEX...SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS PROCESS SHOULD TEND TO
RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE LOWS AS THEY MOVE INLAND...AND DICTATE
A SLOW NWD SHIFT OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A
STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ /40-60 KT/ INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
BETWEEN 06-12Z WILL LIKELY AID IN AN INTRUSION OF THE WARM/MOIST
WARM SECTOR INTO FAR SERN LA/SERN MS TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE.

A BAND OF SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 70-90 KT...AS AN UPSTREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z. CONCURRENT INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO 40-50
KT COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INLAND LATER IN THE PERIOD AND ALONG LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS.. 12/02/2009

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KEWX [020049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 020049
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM FLOOD 8 SE CEDAR CREEK 29.99N 97.42W
12/01/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SANDHILLS RD HAD REPORTED 6 INCHES OF WATER... ONE CAR
ROLLED OVER... RESCUE WAS MADE AND NO INJURIES. ROADWAY
IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900191

$$

AKF

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KDLH [020042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 020042
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
642 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
12/01/2009 M5.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KBIS [020031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020031
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW SHERWOOD 48.96N 101.63W
12/01/2009 M3.0 INCH RENVILLE ND PUBLIC

RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

$$

VROLLER

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KDLH [020032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 020032
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
632 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
12/01/2009 M4.3 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0530 PM SNOW LITTLEFORK 48.40N 93.56W
12/01/2009 M3.9 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KFGF [020013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 020013
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
613 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM SNOW 4 SE STARKWEATHER 48.41N 98.82W
12/01/2009 M2.5 INCH RAMSEY ND CO-OP OBSERVER

TOTAL AS OF 518 PM

0608 PM SNOW GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
12/01/2009 M1.3 INCH GRAND FORKS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

TOTAL AS OF 608 PM

&&

$$

VJPEARCE

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KFGF [012211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 012211
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
411 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM SNOW GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
12/01/2009 M1.0 INCH GRAND FORKS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

TOTAL AS OF 410 PM

&&

$$

G2

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KFGF [012155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 012155
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
354 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW BAUDETTE 48.71N 94.59W
12/01/2009 E3.0 INCH LAKE OF THE WOODS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TOTAL AS OF 300 PM

0305 PM SNOW CAVALIER 48.80N 97.62W
12/01/2009 E5.0 INCH PEMBINA ND TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL AS OF 305 PM

0315 PM SNOW PARK RIVER 48.39N 97.74W
12/01/2009 E5.0 INCH WALSH ND PUBLIC

TOTAL AS OF 315 PM

0335 PM SNOW EDMORE 48.41N 98.45W
12/01/2009 E2.0 INCH RAMSEY ND PUBLIC

TOTAL AS OF 335 PM

&&

$$

G2

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KFGF [012142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 012142
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
342 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM SNOW LANGDON 48.76N 98.37W
12/01/2009 M4.0 INCH CAVALIER ND TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL AS OF 340 PM

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [012112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 012112
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW GRAFTON 48.42N 97.40W
12/01/2009 E3.0 INCH WALSH ND BROADCAST MEDIA

KXPO RADIO, GRAFTON ND TOTAL AS OF 300 PM

0300 PM SNOW 6 E LANKIN 48.31N 97.79W
12/01/2009 E3.0 INCH WALSH ND TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL AS OF 300 PM.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KEPZ [012021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 012021
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
121 PM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM SNOW EL PASO 31.85N 106.44W
12/01/2009 M2.5 INCH EL PASO TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0600 AM SNOW HOLLOMAN AFB 32.85N 106.11W
12/01/2009 E2.0 INCH OTERO NM OTHER FEDERAL

0605 AM SNOW NE EL PASO 31.85N 106.44W
12/01/2009 E3.3 INCH EL PASO TX PUBLIC

0640 AM SNOW ALAMOGORDO 32.88N 105.96W
12/01/2009 E3.0 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 5 W CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.83W
12/01/2009 E7.5 INCH OTERO NM MESONET

0700 AM SNOW 8 ENE BAYARD 32.80N 108.01W
12/01/2009 E1.0 INCH GRANT NM MESONET

0700 AM SNOW 5 NW SUNLAND PARK 31.85N 106.64W
12/01/2009 E1.0 INCH DONA ANA NM MESONET

0700 AM SNOW ESE LAS CRUCES 32.34N 106.76W
12/01/2009 E1.0 INCH DONA ANA NM MESONET

0700 AM SNOW 30 NNW CLOUDCROFT 33.35N 105.94W
12/01/2009 E3.5 INCH OTERO NM MESONET

4.4 NW OF RUIDOSO.

0700 AM SNOW 4 N ALAMOGORDO 32.94N 105.96W
12/01/2009 E5.2 INCH OTERO NM MESONET

0700 AM SNOW SUNSPOT 32.79N 105.82W
12/01/2009 E9.3 INCH OTERO NM MESONET

0700 AM SNOW ESE CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.74W
12/01/2009 E15.0 INCH OTERO NM MESONET

0700 AM SNOW 7 ESE LAS CRUCES 32.30N 106.65W
12/01/2009 E1.5 INCH DONA ANA NM MESONET

0800 AM SNOW TULAROSA 33.08N 106.02W
12/01/2009 E4.0 INCH OTERO NM COUNTY OFFICIAL

0853 AM SNOW 18 E EL PASO 31.85N 106.13W
12/01/2009 E3.1 INCH EL PASO TX NWS EMPLOYEE

0915 AM SNOW 2 SSE CLOUDCROFT 32.92N 105.72W
12/01/2009 E20.0 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM SNOW EL PASO 31.85N 106.44W
12/01/2009 E5.5 INCH EL PASO TX NWS EMPLOYEE

MCKELLIGON CANYON.

1200 PM SNOW 20 E SIERRA BLANCA 31.17N 105.02W
12/01/2009 E12.0 INCH HUDSPETH TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

NEAR VAN HORN.

&&

$$

FK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011946
SWODY1
SPC AC 011945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR THE LA DELTA EWD TO
THE FL PANHANDLE...

...GULF COAST AREA TONIGHT...
FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH SLIGHT RISK CALIBER
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES MAINTAINED FOR TONIGHT FOR GULF
COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL AND FL PANHANDLE. ONGOING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT ROUGHLY BISECTS THE GULF PER OCEANIC
OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH CONTINUED CYCLOGENESIS NOTED
IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF /PER BUOYS 42020
AND 42002/. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS THE APPROACH OF A WARM/MOIST
MARINE AIRMASS AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
BE TEMPORALLY/SPATIALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN LA THIS EVENING...AND
OTHERWISE THE LATTER SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST. GIVEN LATTER PERIOD SURFACE
BASED DESTABILIZATION INLAND ATTENDANT TO AN ENCROACHING MARINE
AIRMASS...INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW LEVEL SRH WOULD
SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES.

..GUYER.. 12/01/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009/

...GULF COAST AREA TONIGHT...
A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX BIG BEND WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE ENEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION
OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SRN
STREAM TROUGH. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE TX/LA
COASTS...WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO BUOY 42002 IN THE NW
GULF AND NEAR THE SW EDGE OF THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. THIS
LOCATION SUPPORTS THE MORE ERN/FASTER FORECAST EVOLUTION DEPICTED BY
THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL SUBSYNOPTIC LOW SHOWN IN THE NAM
NEAR THE LA DELTA BY 00Z.

THE MAIN IMPLICATION OF THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR ONSHORE FROM THE LA DELTA EWD TO
THE FL PANHANDLE. WARM SECTOR LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITED BY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND NO UPSTREAM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME
/PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/. STILL...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ALONG THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST AS A BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SURGE INLAND WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NRN
PART OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR...WHERE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 300-500 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS/BOWS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST - THE FIRST EMANATING FROM
THE ONGOING NW GULF STORMS AND REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY
TONIGHT...AND A SECOND BAND REACHING THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
CYCLONE TRACK/TIMING...IT IS APPROPRIATE TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA WITH 5% TORNADO AND 15% DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

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KFGF [011907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 011907
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM SNOW HALLOCK 48.77N 96.94W
12/01/2009 M3.0 INCH KITTSON MN CO-OP OBSERVER

COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS REPORTS 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUING.

&&

$$

GGUST

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 011859
SWOD48
SPC AC 011859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS THE
PATTERN ALOFT GRADUALLY EVOLVES FROM HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER
MOST OF THE U.S. TOWARD A MUCH FLATTER CYCLONIC/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
REGIME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH A STRONG FRONT HAVING PUSHED OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS
SCOURING OUT ANY HIGHER THETA-E LOW-LEVEL AIR...AND WITHOUT ANY
OBVIOUS HIGHER-AMPLITUDE SYSTEM ALOFT TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AND SUBSEQUENT RETURN FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL.

..GOSS.. 12/01/2009

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KFGF [011853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 011853
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM SNOW 5 NE HANSBORO 49.00N 99.30W
12/01/2009 E5.0 INCH TOWNER ND OTHER FEDERAL

HANSBORO PORT OF ENTRY REPORTS TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 5
INCHES WITH SNOW HAVING TAPPERED TO FLURRIES.

1248 PM SNOW 2 N PEMBINA 49.00N 97.25W
12/01/2009 E5.0 INCH PEMBINA ND OTHER FEDERAL

PEMBINA PORT OF ENTRY REPORTS TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 5
INCHES WITH SNOW HAVING TAPPERED TO FLURRIES.

&&

$$

GGUST

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KFGF [011833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 011833
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1233 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM SNOW 7 S GLASSTON 48.60N 97.45W
12/01/2009 M4.5 INCH PEMBINA ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KDLH [011825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 011825
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
12/01/2009 M1.5 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STILL SNOWING

&&

$$

KK

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KBIS [011815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 011815
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1215 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW KIEF 47.86N 100.51W
12/01/2009 M1.0 INCH MCHENRY ND BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

VROLLER

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KDLH [011710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 011710
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1110 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1108 AM SNOW LITTLEFORK 48.40N 93.56W
12/01/2009 M2.0 INCH KOOCHICHING MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

KK

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KFGF [011652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 011652
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1051 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 AM SNOW CRYSTAL 48.60N 97.67W
12/01/2009 E2.0 INCH PEMBINA ND TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM SNOW ST. THOMAS 48.62N 97.45W
12/01/2009 E2.0 INCH PEMBINA ND TRAINED SPOTTER

1005 AM SNOW DRAYTON 48.56N 97.18W
12/01/2009 E2.0 INCH PEMBINA ND TRAINED SPOTTER

1010 AM SNOW PARK RIVER 48.39N 97.74W
12/01/2009 E0.2 INCH WALSH ND PUBLIC

1015 AM SNOW 6 NNW GRAFTON 48.50N 97.45W
12/01/2009 E2.0 INCH WALSH ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [011635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 011635
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1034 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 3 N HANSBORO 49.00N 99.38W
12/01/2009 M4.0 INCH TOWNER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW HALLOCK 48.77N 96.94W
12/01/2009 E2.0 INCH KITTSON MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0825 AM SNOW LANGDON 48.76N 98.37W
12/01/2009 E3.0 INCH CAVALIER ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO TO THREE INCHES ESTIMATED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

0825 AM SNOW 7 NW CAVALIER 48.87N 97.73W
12/01/2009 M2.5 INCH PEMBINA ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

0900 AM SNOW 3 N SARLES 48.99N 99.00W
12/01/2009 M4.8 INCH CAVALIER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0916 AM SNOW ROSEAU 48.85N 95.76W
12/01/2009 E2.5 INCH ROSEAU MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED 2 TO 2 1/2 INCH AMOUNT BY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KSHV [011631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KSHV 011631
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0457 PM TORNADO 1 NNW NEW BOSTON 33.47N 94.43W
11/29/2009 BOWIE TX NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF1 BRIEFLY TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN NEW BOSTON TEXAS
ALONG PEARLY STREET. A MOBILE HOME WAS DESTROYED AND 4
OTHER HOMES SUSTAINED MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE. SEVERAL
TREES WERE UPROOTED. THE TORNADO CROSSED INTERSTATE 30
AND QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE PATH WAS 0.5 MILES LONG...75
YARDS WIDE AND ON THE GROUND FOR LESS THAN A MINUTE.

&&

$$

03

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011629
SWODY1
SPC AC 011627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR THE LA DELTA EWD TO
THE FL PANHANDLE...

...GULF COAST AREA TONIGHT...
A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX BIG BEND WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE ENEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION
OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SRN
STREAM TROUGH. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE TX/LA
COASTS...WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO BUOY 42002 IN THE NW
GULF AND NEAR THE SW EDGE OF THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. THIS
LOCATION SUPPORTS THE MORE ERN/FASTER FORECAST EVOLUTION DEPICTED BY
THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL SUBSYNOPTIC LOW SHOWN IN THE NAM
NEAR THE LA DELTA BY 00Z.

THE MAIN IMPLICATION OF THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR ONSHORE FROM THE LA DELTA EWD TO
THE FL PANHANDLE. WARM SECTOR LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITED BY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND NO UPSTREAM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME
/PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/. STILL...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ALONG THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST AS A BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SURGE INLAND WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NRN
PART OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY STRONG
LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR...WHERE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 300-500 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS/BOWS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST - THE FIRST EMANATING FROM
THE ONGOING NW GULF STORMS AND REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY
TONIGHT...AND A SECOND BAND REACHING THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
CYCLONE TRACK/TIMING...IT IS APPROPRIATE TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA WITH 5% TORNADO AND 15% DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 12/01/2009

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KBIS [011602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 011602
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM SNOW N BELCOURT 48.84N 99.74W
12/01/2009 E1.5 INCH ROLETTE ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0950 AM SNOW 5 SSW LAKE METIGOSHE ST 48.91N 100.37W
12/01/2009 E2.0 INCH BOTTINEAU ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LLP

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KTFX [011531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 011531
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
831 AM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 1 N HELENA 46.61N 112.02W
12/01/2009 M2.5 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

2.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AT LOCATION 1 MILE
NORTH OF CAPITOL. SNOW HAS STOPPED AT LOCATION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TFX0900068

$$

COULSTON

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KAPX [011447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KAPX 011447
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
946 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW LAKE ANN 44.73N 85.84W
12/01/2009 M1.6 INCH BENZIE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 6AM. SNOWDEPTH TRACE.

0700 AM SNOW PICKFORD 46.16N 84.36W
12/01/2009 M4.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM.

0700 AM SNOW ENGADINE 46.12N 85.57W
12/01/2009 M2.0 INCH MACKINAC MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 1 IN.

0700 AM SNOW 20 N ECKERMAN 46.66N 85.03W
12/01/2009 M3.5 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PARK/FOREST SRVC

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

0700 AM SNOW 7 W PICKFORD 46.16N 84.51W
12/01/2009 M5.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM.

0700 AM SNOW ST. IGNACE 45.87N 84.73W
12/01/2009 M1.0 INCH MACKINAC MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 1 IN.

0700 AM SNOW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
12/01/2009 M4.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

0700 AM SNOW DAFTER 46.37N 84.43W
12/01/2009 M6.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM.

&&

$$

SWR

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KUNR [011415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 011415
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
715 AM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 45.58N 103.55W
12/01/2009 M59.00 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

K2WX ASOS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 51 KTS AT 502 AM
MST THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KAPX [011404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 011404
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
904 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW LAKE ANN 44.73N 85.84W
12/01/2009 M1.6 INCH BENZIE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 6AM. SNOWDEPTH TRACE.

0700 AM SNOW ENGADINE 46.12N 85.57W
12/01/2009 M2.0 INCH MACKINAC MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 1 IN.

0700 AM SNOW 20 N ECKERMAN 46.66N 85.03W
12/01/2009 M3.5 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PARK/FOREST SRVC

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

0700 AM SNOW 7 W PICKFORD 46.16N 84.51W
12/01/2009 M5.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM.

0700 AM SNOW ST. IGNACE 45.87N 84.73W
12/01/2009 M1.0 INCH MACKINAC MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 1 IN.

0700 AM SNOW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
12/01/2009 M4.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

0700 AM SNOW DAFTER 46.37N 84.43W
12/01/2009 M6.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM.

0700 AM SNOW PICKFORD 46.16N 84.36W
12/01/2009 M4.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM.

&&

$$

SWR

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KBIS [011358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 011358
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
758 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 AM SNOW BOTTINEAU 48.83N 100.44W
12/01/2009 E1.0 INCH BOTTINEAU ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

CURRENTLY HEAVY SNOW.

&&

$$

RK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011229
SWODY1
SPC AC 011227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA WILL DEEPEN AS IT EJECTS
E/NEWD INTO E TX BY EARLY WED. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE FAR S
TX COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS NEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN W-E
ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF RETREATING NWD. MODEL FORECASTS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH THE
ECMWF/NAM/SREF DEPICTING A 02/12Z POSITION INVOF MS RIVER ALONG THE
LA/MS BORDER COMPARED TO THE GFS ACROSS SRN AL. THIS BREEDS
LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
INLAND. IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALONG THE COAST/NRN GULF
SHOULD RETARD THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY.
NEVERTHELESS...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN
EVENING/OVERNIGHT SURGE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING A ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INLAND ACROSS FAR SERN LA...SRN MS/AL...AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.

DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTRUSION OF THE WARM SECTOR WOULD RESULT IN A
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS
WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG BETWEEN 02/03Z TO 02/12Z. AS A
S/SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 60-70 KT LEADING TO LARGE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE FAVORED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AND BROADEN THE
AREA EWD GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PENETRATION OF THE WARM SECTOR
INLAND.

..GRAMS/EVANS.. 12/01/2009

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KMQT [011206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 011206
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
705 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW GRAND MARAIS 46.67N 85.98W
12/01/2009 M3.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 2 S MCMILLAN 46.31N 85.69W
12/01/2009 M3.1 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL. 0.31 LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

AJK

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010829
SWODY3
SPC AC 010828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN FIXED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS...AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
48...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF EWD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS COASTAL NC...AND NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST REGION WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY LINGER ACROSS S FL AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SLOWLY SWD...BUT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VEERED/MODEST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITY ATTM.

..GOSS.. 12/01/2009

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KTFX [010732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 010732
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1231 AM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/30/2009 M61.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

61 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT
SENSOR NEAR EAST GLACIER PARK

1227 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
11/30/2009 M59.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

THE 301956Z OBSERVATION AT KCTB AIRPORT SHOWED A PEAK
GUST OF 59 MPH AT 1927Z.

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
11/30/2009 M61.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

61 MPH PEAK WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

0139 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/30/2009 M60.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

60 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT

0145 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
11/30/2009 M75.00 MPH TETON MT MESONET

75 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE DELLWO MSCN SITE

0309 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
11/30/2009 M59.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

59 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE PENDROY DOT LOCATION.

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/30/2009 M63.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.96W
11/30/2009 M62.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

62 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE SWEET GRASS DOT SENSOR

0338 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
11/30/2009 M57.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

57 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE PENDROY DOT SENSOR

0515 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/30/2009 M71.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

71 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS

0804 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
11/30/2009 M53.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR SIEBEN
FLATS.

&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS RECIEVED SINCE 10 AM MONDAY.

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [010726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 010726
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1226 AM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
11/30/2009 M61 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

61 MPH PEAK WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [010724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 010724
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1224 AM MST TUE DEC 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0309 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
11/30/2009 M59.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

59 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE PENDROY DOT LOCATION.

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/30/2009 M63.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0804 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
11/30/2009 M53.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR SIEBEN
FLATS.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010700
SWODY2
SPC AC 010659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER ERN TX AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS
PERIOD...ON ERN FRINGES OF A MUCH LARGER/DIGGING TROUGH EXPANDING TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE U.S. AND THE ERN 2/3 OF CANADA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL UNDERGO
SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS...MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS A WARM SECTOR SPREADS NWD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COAST STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LOW...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN SWEEPING
EWD...APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD

...SOUTHEAST U.S. NEWD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...
WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS
EVIDENT THIS FORECAST...BEGINNING EARLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND STORMS -- AND ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT -- WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE...WITH CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD WITH TIME AS A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SPREADS NWD -- PARTICULARLY E OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
STREAMING NEWD WILL HINDER APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION...INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS -- LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF MULTIPLE BANDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED CELLS.

WHILE GENERAL LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HINDER
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE...FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH STORMS ONGOING
WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION --
INCLUDING BOTH BOWS/LEWPS AND SUPERCELLS -- CAN BE EXPECTED. ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED BANDS OF
STORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL ALSO
EXIST -- BOTH WITH ISOLATED STORMS AND WITHIN COMPLEX LINE SEGMENTS.
THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT LIKELY
REMAINING ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NEWD AS FAR AS ERN
VA AND SWD ACROSS FL LATE.

..GOSS.. 12/01/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010601
SWODY1
SPC AC 010600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA...SERN MS AND
SWRN AL TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF NRN MEXICO
CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AT 12Z
TODAY...AND WILL DEEPEN AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING E TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENT FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/ CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO /E OF BRO/ BY 12Z TODAY SHOULD MOVE NEWD REACHING THE SRN LA
COAST /S OF LFT/ EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN TRACK INLAND TO
FAR SRN MS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SCENARIO FAVORS THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THE
SAME LOW INTO SRN AL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED MORE
SO ON THE FORMER TWO MODELS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NWRN GULF INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NRN MEXICO MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES CENTRAL/E TX. THIS COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ WILL ALLOW AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE GULF TO SPREAD NWD REACHING THE LA COAST BY 02/00Z.
INITIALLY...INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT SHOULD REINFORCE THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...BUT AN EVENING/OVERNIGHT SURGE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR OVER SERN LA/MS TO SWRN AL AFTER DARK.

DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTRUSION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS
WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 250-500 J/KG BETWEEN 02/00Z TO 02/12Z.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 50-75 KT ATOP A 60-70 KT SSWLY LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG LLJ
WILL RESULT IN LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SPREADS EWD ACROSS SERN LA/SERN MS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

..PETERS.. 12/01/2009

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