SWODY1
SPC AC 011227
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CST TUE DEC 01 2009
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
...CNTRL GULF COAST...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA WILL DEEPEN AS IT EJECTS
E/NEWD INTO E TX BY EARLY WED. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE FAR S
TX COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS NEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN W-E
ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF RETREATING NWD. MODEL FORECASTS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH THE
ECMWF/NAM/SREF DEPICTING A 02/12Z POSITION INVOF MS RIVER ALONG THE
LA/MS BORDER COMPARED TO THE GFS ACROSS SRN AL. THIS BREEDS
LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
INLAND. IN ADDITION...THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALONG THE COAST/NRN GULF
SHOULD RETARD THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY.
NEVERTHELESS...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN
EVENING/OVERNIGHT SURGE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING A ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INLAND ACROSS FAR SERN LA...SRN MS/AL...AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.
DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTRUSION OF THE WARM SECTOR WOULD RESULT IN A
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS
WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG BETWEEN 02/03Z TO 02/12Z. AS A
S/SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 60-70 KT LEADING TO LARGE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE FAVORED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AND BROADEN THE
AREA EWD GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PENETRATION OF THE WARM SECTOR
INLAND.
..GRAMS/EVANS.. 12/01/2009
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