Friday, February 17, 2012

KDTX [180441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 180441
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 PM SNOW PIGEON 43.83N 83.27W
02/17/2012 M1.9 INCH HURON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE 8 PM. STILL SNOWING.


&&

$$

SCONSIDI

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KDTX [180342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 180342
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1042 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1041 PM SNOW SAGINAW 43.42N 83.95W
02/17/2012 M2.0 INCH SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SINCE 6 PM.


&&

$$

SCONSIDI

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KDTX [180331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 180331
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1030 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM SNOW 9 W SAGINAW 43.42N 84.13W
02/17/2012 M1.9 INCH SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW TOTAL SINCE 6 PM.


&&

$$

SCONSIDI

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KGRB [180259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 180259
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
859 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM SNOW LAKE TOMAHAWK 45.81N 89.59W
02/17/2012 M1.8 INCH ONEIDA WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KDTX [180145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 180145
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
845 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 PM SNOW BRIDGEPORT 43.38N 83.88W
02/17/2012 M1.7 INCH SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 HOUR TOTAL


&&

$$

RKULIK

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KABQ [180105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 180105
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 PM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW 6 ESE MOGOLLON 33.36N 108.70W
02/17/2012 E7.0 INCH CATRON NM OTHER FEDERAL

SILVER CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL.

0943 AM SNOW 1 WNW HOLLYWOOD 33.33N 105.65W
02/17/2012 E2.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0949 AM SNOW MOGOLLON 33.40N 108.80W
02/17/2012 E1.0 INCH CATRON NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1004 AM SNOW 2 SSE ALTO 33.37N 105.66W
02/17/2012 M2.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1106 AM SNOW 16 SE CORONA 34.09N 105.40W
02/17/2012 E3.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1123 AM SNOW 1 N RUIDOSO 33.34N 105.68W
02/17/2012 E3.0 INCH LINCOLN NM PUBLIC

0500 PM SNOW 5 SW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.78W
02/17/2012 E6.0 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL

SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1200484 ABQ1200482 ABQ1200481 ABQ1200480 ABQ1200479
ABQ1200478 ABQ1200477

$$

JLP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180101
SWODY1
SPC AC 180100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DEEP S TX TO MIDDLE TX
COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIOR SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER WRN CONUS AND NRN MEX IS BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN RESPONSE TO NRN-STREAM WAVE AMPLIFICATIONS. THIS IS
RESULTING IN OPENING/EJECTION OF PREVIOUSLY CLOSED LOW OVER
BORDERLANDS REGION OF TX/NM/CHIHUAHUA. ASSOCIATED STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD...MOVING TO POSITION NEAR AMA...INK...SWD OVER BIG
BEND NATIONAL PARK AND WRN COAHUILA.

AT SFC...APCH OF MID-UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS E OF NERN MEX MOUNTAINS...AND W OF MFE. RELATED SFC
LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT DRAWN AT 00Z ACROSS STAR/KENEDY
COUNTIES THEN EWD OVER GULF. LOW SHOULD MOVE TO COASTAL BEND/MIDDLE
COAST AREA NEAR VCT BY 12Z...WHILE WARM FRONT MOVES NWD TOWARD PSX
AND SW GLS. NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER TX COAST WILL
BE IMPINGED BY ONGOING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW NOW OFFSHORE MID-UPPER TX
COAST.

...S TX...
SFC TEMPS 80S/90S F WERE MEASURED OVER RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SWATH
OF INTERIOR MEX PLATEAU EARLIER TODAY...EVIDENCE OF STG ELEVATED
MIXED-LAYER AIR MASS POTENTIALLY ADVECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS OUTLOOK
AREA TONIGHT. LAST VIS IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS STILL DAMMED AGAINST
ERN SLOPES OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO...EXTENDING EWD ON BOTH SIDES OF
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS S TX AND ADJACENT PORTIONS NERN MEX. TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN COVERAGE GREATLY OVER WRN COAHUILA DURING
PAST COUPLE HOURS...WHERE PLUME OF STRONGER MID-UPPER ASCENT AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGED UPON WELL-HEATED/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE. AS SWATH OF LIFT SHIFTS
EWD/ENEWD TONIGHT INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONVECTION SHOULD
EXPAND/REDEVELOP ACROSS RIO GRANDE AND OVER S TX ON EITHER SIDE OF
FRONT. GREATEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY IN ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT N OF FRONT AND NW-N OF SFC LOW TRACK...WHERE FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 45-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES EVEN FOR ELEVATED
BUOYANCY...IN SUPPORT OF HAIL THREAT.

S OF FRONT...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F WILL BE
MAINTAINED...ENABLING SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS IF
SUFFICIENT LIFT IS PROVIDED TO FORCE THEM THROUGH BASAL EML
INVERSION. FAVORABLE MLCAPE IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE WAS ESTIMATED
FROM 00Z BRO SOUNDING...EVEN AFTER CORRECTING FOR APPARENT WET-BULB
COOLING ARTIFACT AROUND 815 MB...ALONG WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE. ATTM IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S INTO WARM SECTOR ANY
CONVECTIVE BAND OR CLUSTER WILL BUILD...GIVEN STRENGTHENING EML
PLUME WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL-THRESHOLD SVR
PROBABILITIES NEAR AND S OF CYCLONE TRACK...AND OVER PORTIONS RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NW-W OF LOW TRACK WHERE SRN PORTION OF GREATEST TSTM
CONCENTRATION SHOULD JUXTAPOSE WITH MOST VIGOROUS WAA CONVEYOR.

..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2012

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KGRR [180037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 180037
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
736 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW 4 NW LANSING 42.78N 84.59W
02/17/2012 M0.4 INCH CLINTON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

THIS WAS A STORM TOTAL THROUGH 7 PM.


&&

$$

WHOEPNER

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KGRR [180035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 180035
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
735 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW MUSKEGON ARPT 43.17N 86.24W
02/17/2012 M1.0 INCH MUSKEGON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

THIS WAS A STORM TOTAL. THE SNOW DEPTH WAS 1 INCH.


&&

$$

WHOEPNER

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KGRR [180033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 180033
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
733 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 PM SNOW GERALD R FORD ARPT 42.89N 85.53W
02/17/2012 M1.6 INCH KENT MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

THIS WAS A STORM TOTAL. THE SNOW DEPTH WAS 2 INCHES.


&&

$$

WHOEPNER

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KGRR [180032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 180032
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
732 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM SNOW WSW ALLENDALE 42.97N 85.96W
02/17/2012 M1.0 INCH OTTAWA MI COCORAHS

THIS WAS A STORM TOTAL. THE SNOW DEPTH WAS 1 INCH.


&&

$$

WHOEPNER

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KGRR [172339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 172339
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
639 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 PM SNOW BRECKENRIDGE 43.41N 84.48W
02/17/2012 M1.0 INCH GRATIOT MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

WFELVER

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KGRB [172337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 172337
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
537 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0534 PM SNOW THREE LAKES 45.79N 89.16W
02/17/2012 M1.6 INCH ONEIDA WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KGRB [172254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 172254
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
453 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM SNOW RHINELANDER 45.63N 89.41W
02/17/2012 M1.2 INCH ONEIDA WI BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

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KEPZ [172123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 172123
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
223 PM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM SNOW 4 SE FIERRO 32.81N 108.02W
02/17/2012 M3.5 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN SNOW LINE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5400 FEET IN
THE MIMBRES VALLEY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200019

$$

HARDIMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171947
SWODY1
SPC AC 171945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO NUDGE THE SLIGHT RISK NWD ALONG
THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND ACROSS SCNTRL TX. A SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING
NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI AND A SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NEAR VICTORIA SWWD WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z.

..BROYLES.. 02/17/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012/

.. S TX...
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT/BROKEN SHOWERS ACROSS N TX ATTM DUE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN ZONE OF COUPLED UPPER
JETS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER CNTRL U.S.
POST COLD FRONTAL SURFACE-BASED STABLE AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF TX WITH COOL AND MOIST NELY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. EXCEPTION IS DEEP S TX WHERE AIRMASS RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY
AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
AHEAD OF SUBSTANTIAL UPR TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM NRN MEX. EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA
LATER TODAY AS UPR FORCING AIDS ASCENT AND INHIBITION IS LOCALLY
OVERCOME. GREATER CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
DECOUPLED AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM S TX INTO THE WRN GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO SOME ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE TONIGHT AS THE UPR
TROUGH SPREADS EAST AND DEEP LEVEL ASCENT ACTS ON INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER S TX AND ADJACENT GULF.

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KDLH [171925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171925
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
125 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM SNOW HERBSTER 46.83N 91.26W
02/17/2012 M1.8 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KCRP [171858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 171858
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1258 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL ODEM 27.95N 97.59W
02/17/2012 E0.25 INCH SAN PATRICIO TX NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

LKEYS

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KDLH [171821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171821
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
02/17/2012 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0.7 INCHES SINCE 6AM


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171726
SWODY2
SPC AC 171725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX COAST...LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX ON
SATURDAY AS A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE TX COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OR A LINEAR MCS SHOULD BE IN
PROGRESS AT 12Z MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS THE MCS MOVES ENEWD
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TX SATURDAY...A
WELL-DEVELOPED 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS JET PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SQUALL-LINE IN SE LA SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 65 KT RANGE AND 0-3 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300 TO 400 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE OR WITH
DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND IN THE MS DELTA WHERE MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. THIS SETUP MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AS A 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
SQUALL-LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE A PERSISTENT WIND DAMAGE THREAT
FROM SRN LA LATE SATURDAY MORNING EXTENDING ENEWD TO CNTRL GA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR FOR NUMEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS INSTABILITY. IF MORE INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
POSSIBILITY JUSTIFIES A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY ALONG THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LINEAR MCS.

..BROYLES.. 02/17/2012

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KSGX [171717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 171717
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
916 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE THOUSAND PALMS 33.87N 116.32W
02/11/2012 M71 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

SKY VALLEY MESONET RECORDED A MAX WIND GUST OF 71 MPH
AROUND 100 PM ON 2/11. WINDS GUSTED ABOVE 58 MPH UNTIL
AROUND 400 PM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER FROM
AROUND 1000 AM TO 1200 PM AND FROM 500 PM TO 600 PM.


&&

$$

JMOKER

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KEPZ [171647]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEPZ 171647
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
947 AM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 3 SW SILVER LAKE 33.00N 105.67W
02/17/2012 M1.1 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

ELEV APPX 8200 FT.

0700 AM SNOW 1 ESE CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.73W
02/17/2012 M1.5 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

ELEV APPX 8800 FT.

0700 AM SNOW SUNSPOT 32.79N 105.82W
02/17/2012 M1.3 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

ELEV APPX 9000 FT.

0901 AM SNOW CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.74W
02/17/2012 M1.5 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0935 AM SNOW 3 SSW MIMBRES 32.81N 108.00W
02/17/2012 E2.0 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEV APPX 6500 FT.

0937 AM SNOW 6 E SAN LORENZO 32.81N 107.82W
02/17/2012 M3.0 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEV APPX 6300 FT.

0939 AM SNOW PINOS ALTOS 32.87N 108.22W
02/17/2012 E1.0 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEV APPX 7200 FT.

0939 AM SNOW 3 SSW MIMBRES 32.82N 108.00W
02/17/2012 M5.0 INCH GRANT NM COCORAHS

ELEV APPX 6500 FT.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200011 EPZ1200012 EPZ1200013 EPZ1200014 EPZ1200015
EPZ1200016 EPZ1200017 EPZ1200018

$$

HARDIMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171633
SWODY1
SPC AC 171630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX...

.. S TX...
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT/BROKEN SHOWERS ACROSS N TX ATTM DUE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN ZONE OF COUPLED UPPER
JETS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER CNTRL U.S.
POST COLD FRONTAL SURFACE-BASED STABLE AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF TX WITH COOL AND MOIST NELY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. EXCEPTION IS DEEP S TX WHERE AIRMASS RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY
AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
AHEAD OF SUBSTANTIAL UPR TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM NRN MEX. EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA
LATER TODAY AS UPR FORCING AIDS ASCENT AND INHIBITION IS LOCALLY
OVERCOME. GREATER CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
DECOUPLED AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM S TX INTO THE WRN GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO SOME ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE TONIGHT AS THE UPR
TROUGH SPREADS EAST AND DEEP LEVEL ASCENT ACTS ON INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER S TX AND ADJACENT GULF.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 02/17/2012

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KDLH [171626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171626
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1026 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM SNOW HERBSTER 46.83N 91.26W
02/17/2012 M1.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KGRB [171544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 171544
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
944 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 AM SNOW FREMONT 44.26N 88.86W
02/17/2012 E0.5 INCH WAUPACA WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ECKBERG

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KMSO [171520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 171520
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
819 AM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0813 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 S CONDON 47.51N 113.71W
02/17/2012 M3.0 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW STARTED AT 5PM LAST NIGHT. LIGHT AND FLUFFY.


&&

$$

KOLATA

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KPSR [171509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 171509
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
809 AM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM SNOW 9 ENE LOST HORSE-KEYS V 33.99N 116.06W
02/15/2012 E8.0 INCH RIVERSIDE CA PARK SERVICE

REPORTED RECEIVED FROM JTNP PARK RANGER OF 8 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 4000FT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
SNOW COVERED MANY OF THE PARK ROADS AND FELL ALL THE WAY
TO THE LOST HORSE VALELY FLOOR. REPORTED RECEIVED
THURSDAY AFTN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1200016

$$

NOLTE

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KDLH [171504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171504
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
904 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 8 S BIGFORK 47.63N 93.65W
02/17/2012 M2.0 INCH ITASCA MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KOTX [171457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 171457
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
657 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM SNOW Haydon 47.75N 116.78W
02/16/2012 M1.4 INCH KOOTENAI ID CO-OP OBSERVER

1200 AM SNOW Sacheen Lake 48.17N 117.31W
02/17/2012 M0.9 INCH PEND OREILLE WA CO-OP OBSERVER

0650 AM SNOW 5 S NORTHPORT 48.85N 117.77W
02/17/2012 M2.5 INCH STEVENS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FELL BETWEEN 0900 AND 1500 ON 2/16. CURRENT
CONDITIONS HIGH 26, LOW 18, OBS 20, PCPN 0.20, PRESSURE
30.10, SD 12.5. FOG WITH 1/8 MILE VSBY.


&&

$$

MAT

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KSGX [171439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 171439
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
639 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE THOUSAND PALMS 33.88N 116.33W
02/17/2012 M67 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

SKY VALLEY MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH AT
APPROXIMATELY 200 AM.


&&

$$

JMOKER

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KDLH [171406]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171406
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
02/17/2012 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [171344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171344
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
744 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 W HIBBING 47.40N 92.99W
02/17/2012 M2.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COCORAHS


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [171331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171331
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
731 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 12 N GRAND RAPIDS 47.40N 93.52W
02/17/2012 M2.0 INCH ITASCA MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171232
SWODY1
SPC AC 171230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX...

...TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD AND INTO TX THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE DRAWING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO TX. NORTHWARD RETURN OF SURFACE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
TX. HOWEVER...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL TX BY
EARLY SAT MORNING.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER...THE IT APPEARS THE BULK OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE AFTER DARK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT OVER MUCH OF TX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
IN THE STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH TX WHERE SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS ARE MOST LIKELY.

..HART/MOSIER/ROGERS.. 02/17/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170850
SWOD48
SPC AC 170849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED
REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 4 AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS
ADVANCE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEYS. LEAD TROUGH
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S. DAY
5 IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
SRN PLAINS. WITH A MEAN TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. BY DAY 5...OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT FAVOR A
SIGNIFICANT NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.

MONDAY...INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY WILL MAINTAIN
STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING INTO S TX
AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER
TO SLY IN WAKE OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LLJ IS
FORECAST OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEY WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION.
WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL QUALITY AND NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN
AS WELL AS SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM
WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF
COASTAL AREAS...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

WEDNESDAY...SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NRN FL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SRN STREAM IMPULSE...BUT INCREASING MODEL
DIFFERENCES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

..DIAL.. 02/17/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170800
SWODY3
SPC AC 170758

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SERN GA AND
ERN SC...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
BY EVENING. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER NRN AL SUNDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES NEAR
COASTAL NC AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE INITIAL LOW WILL ADVANCE THROUGH REMAINDER OF GA...SRN SC
AND FL WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH SC AND INTO SERN NC.

...NRN FL THROUGH COASTAL GA AND SC...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FROM PORTIONS OF GA...SC AND NRN FL WHERE A STRONG LLJ
WILL HAVE ADVECTED MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INLAND. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SERVE AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND 50-60 KT FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD. SOME THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG CONVECTION IN WAKE OF INITIAL ACTIVITY
WITHIN DRY SLOT REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE AT
LEAST MODEST DIABATIC HEATING AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...VEERING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DUE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG NC COAST MAY TEND TO LIMIT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 02/17/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170618
SWODY2
SPC AC 170617

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SATURDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX INTO NERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER SERN TX SATURDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...REACHING AL OR GA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
THE CNTRL GULF SOUTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT INTO SRN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY
IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND SLOW THE NWD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
300-500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO NWD
ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS INITIALLY ACROSS SERN TX COASTAL AREA
WHERE WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF LEWP/BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN THE EXPECTED
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 02/17/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170554
SWODY1
SPC AC 170552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DEEP S TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER WRN/CENTRAL CONUS WILL EVOLVE AWAY FROM SPLIT
FLOW THIS PERIOD...AS WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER CYCLONE NOW OVER NWRN
MEX EJECTS ENEWD. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD DEAMPLIFY TO STG
OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AROUND 18/00Z-18/06Z TIME FRAME...AS IT MOVES
ACROSS CHIHUAHUA TOWARD SW TX. NRN PORTION OF TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
TX BIG-BEND REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING NRN COAHUILA/SERRANIAS DEL
BURRO REGION AROUND 18/12Z.

IN RESPONSE...OVERNIGHT/LEE-SIDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR E OF
MEX MOUNTAINS...WITH DEEPENING LOW CROSSING LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REGION AND DEEP S TX DURING 18/06Z-18/12Z PERIOD. WARM FRONT --
DENOTING NRN FRINGE OF MARINE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS -- WILL EXTEND
FROM LOW EWD ACROSS DEEP S TX AND NWRN GULF.

...S TX...
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD FOSTER RECOVERY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS FROM ANY PRIOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION
OVER DEEP S TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND 7-8
DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE INTO
1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. PRESENCE OF CAPPING INVERSION AT BASE OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...COMBINED WITH LACK OF APPARENT BOUNDARY-LAYER
FOCI...MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
STILL...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WARM FRONT OR ANY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG/DAMAGING GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ATOP WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH
SIZE...UNTIL AFTER DARK WHEN ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEE
CYCLOGENESIS RESULTS IN BACKED/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR
WARM FRONT.

MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT...AS STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SFC CYCLONE MOVE
ACROSS AREA. PRIMARY THREATS OVER WARM SECTOR WILL BE DAMAGING
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERALL SVR RISK SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT N OF SFC LOW AND
WARM FRONT...WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ELEVATED. STILL...STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER WINDS WITH APCH OF
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...CONTRIBUTING TO
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH MAY
OFFER SVR HAILSTONES AND STG GUSTS.

...MID-UPPER TX AND SWRN LA COASTS...
ATTM...CONSENSUS OF SREF AND OPERATIONAL PROGS INDICATES WARM FRONT
WILL REMAIN BARELY OFFSHORE OF THIS COASTAL STRETCH UNTIL EARLY
DAY-2 PERIOD WHEN LOW PASSES. HOWEVER...EVEN MINOR/MESOBETA SCALE
NWD SHIFT IN LOW TRACK COULD RESULT IN SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
PARCELS...AND ACCOMPANYING WIND/TORNADO RISK...BRUSHING COASTAL
AREAS DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. FOR NOW...THREAT APPEARS TOO
MRGL FOR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS OF UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS/DEAN.. 02/17/2012

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0121

ACUS11 KWNS 170535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170535
TXZ000-170700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170535Z - 170700Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT /DIAMETERS APPROACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING
1 INCH/ ARE POSSIBLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX /SERN HIDALGO...CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTIES/ BETWEEN 06-08Z. A SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMIT AND A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

ALTHOUGH DIABATIC COOLING HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION OVER DEEP S TX...SUSTAINED ELEVATED STORMS TRACKING NEWD
FROM NERN MEXICO ARE LIKELY BEING FED BY GREATER INSTABILITY
RESIDING S OF THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AS ACTIVITY TRACKS NEWD INTO THE U.S.
SIDE OF THE BORDER INCLUDING BRO.

..PETERS.. 02/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON 26119858 26549812 26739696 25959674 25689699 25859764
25959811 26119858

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KMSO [170518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 170518
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1017 PM MST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM SNOW 1 NW KALISPELL 48.21N 114.33W
02/16/2012 E2.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

RNL

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