NWUS53 KMPX 212106
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0406 PM HAIL HASTINGS 44.73N 92.85W
08/21/2013 M0.50 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
LRS
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Wednesday, August 21, 2013
KMPX [212102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 212102
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0401 PM HAIL RICE LAKE 45.50N 91.74W
08/21/2013 M0.25 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL NOW ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR 20 MINUTES
&&
$$
LRS
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LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0401 PM HAIL RICE LAKE 45.50N 91.74W
08/21/2013 M0.25 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL NOW ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR 20 MINUTES
&&
$$
LRS
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KMQT [212059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212059
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
459 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0435 PM HAIL AU TRAIN 46.43N 86.84W
08/21/2013 E0.75 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY SIZED HAIL
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
459 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0435 PM HAIL AU TRAIN 46.43N 86.84W
08/21/2013 E0.75 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY SIZED HAIL
&&
$$
DODSON
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KMQT [212057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212057
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM TSTM WND DMG BERGLAND 46.59N 89.57W
08/21/2013 ONTONAGON MI NWS EMPLOYEE
SEVERAL TREES DOWN. ESTIMATED ONE OF THE TREES TO HAVE A
12-15 INCH DIAMETER. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM TSTM WND DMG BERGLAND 46.59N 89.57W
08/21/2013 ONTONAGON MI NWS EMPLOYEE
SEVERAL TREES DOWN. ESTIMATED ONE OF THE TREES TO HAVE A
12-15 INCH DIAMETER. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
&&
$$
DODSON
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1747
ACUS11 KWNS 212056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212056
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-212230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WY/FAR NORTHEAST CO TO WEST-CENTRAL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212056Z - 212230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST WY/FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEB.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
NEAR/POST-FRONTAL TREND OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/FAR SOUTHEAST WY. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY THICK CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PREVALENT SINCE THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE ROUGHLY RANGING FROM 500 J/KG NEAR
THE WY/NEB BORDER TO AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG INTO WEST-CENTRAL
NEB. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES
AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT /AIDED A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET/ SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY MODEST...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LOW-MID LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH EVENTUAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41730469 42670483 42440373 42350296 42789966 42299903
41319962 40750144 40740331 41730469
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212056
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-212230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST WY/FAR NORTHEAST CO TO WEST-CENTRAL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212056Z - 212230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST WY/FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEB.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
NEAR/POST-FRONTAL TREND OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/FAR SOUTHEAST WY. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY THICK CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PREVALENT SINCE THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE ROUGHLY RANGING FROM 500 J/KG NEAR
THE WY/NEB BORDER TO AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG INTO WEST-CENTRAL
NEB. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES
AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT /AIDED A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET/ SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY MODEST...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/LOW-MID LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH EVENTUAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41730469 42670483 42440373 42350296 42789966 42299903
41319962 40750144 40740331 41730469
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KREV [212051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KREV 212051
LSRREV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
151 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0122 PM HAIL CARSON CITY 39.17N 119.76W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH CARSON CITY NV AMATEUR RADIO
HEAVY RAIN MIXED WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON
HIGHWAY 50 NEAR COLLEGE PKWY. PONDING ON ROADS.
0130 PM HAIL 8 W RENO 39.54N 119.97W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH WASHOE NV PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL MIXED WITH HEAVY
RAIN NEAR CABELAS STORE ON INTERSTATE I80. SOME WATER
FLOWING IN PARKING LOT.
&&
$$
JKIELHOR
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LSRREV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
151 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0122 PM HAIL CARSON CITY 39.17N 119.76W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH CARSON CITY NV AMATEUR RADIO
HEAVY RAIN MIXED WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON
HIGHWAY 50 NEAR COLLEGE PKWY. PONDING ON ROADS.
0130 PM HAIL 8 W RENO 39.54N 119.97W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH WASHOE NV PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL MIXED WITH HEAVY
RAIN NEAR CABELAS STORE ON INTERSTATE I80. SOME WATER
FLOWING IN PARKING LOT.
&&
$$
JKIELHOR
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KMQT [212046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212046
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
446 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM HAIL 4 E DEERTON 46.48N 86.95W
08/21/2013 E0.25 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER
ESTIMATED PEA SIZED HAIL. GUSTY WINDS ALSO OBSERVED WITH
A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
446 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM HAIL 4 E DEERTON 46.48N 86.95W
08/21/2013 E0.25 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER
ESTIMATED PEA SIZED HAIL. GUSTY WINDS ALSO OBSERVED WITH
A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
&&
$$
DODSON
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KJKL [212046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KJKL 212046
LSRJKL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
445 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0349 PM TSTM WND DMG CAMPTON 37.74N 83.55W
08/21/2013 WOLFE KY NWS EMPLOYEE
ONE TREE DOWN ON CAMPBELL HILL ROAD AND ONE TREE DOWN ON
PLUMMERS STREET
&&
$$
GEOGERIAN
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LSRJKL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
445 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0349 PM TSTM WND DMG CAMPTON 37.74N 83.55W
08/21/2013 WOLFE KY NWS EMPLOYEE
ONE TREE DOWN ON CAMPBELL HILL ROAD AND ONE TREE DOWN ON
PLUMMERS STREET
&&
$$
GEOGERIAN
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KMQT [212044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212044
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM HAIL 2 WNW AU TRAIN 46.44N 86.88W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME TO PEA SIZED HAIL.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM HAIL 2 WNW AU TRAIN 46.44N 86.88W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME TO PEA SIZED HAIL.
&&
$$
DODSON
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KMQT [212039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212039
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM HAIL BERGLAND 46.59N 89.57W
08/21/2013 E0.75 INCH ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC
GUSTY WINDS ALSO OBSERVED. SMALL LIMBS DOWN.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM HAIL BERGLAND 46.59N 89.57W
08/21/2013 E0.75 INCH ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC
GUSTY WINDS ALSO OBSERVED. SMALL LIMBS DOWN.
&&
$$
DODSON
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KMQT [212037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212037
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0354 PM HAIL 3 W MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.46W
08/21/2013 E0.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE
DIME SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW UP TO PENNY SIZED NEAR WRIGHT
STREET AND US-41.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0354 PM HAIL 3 W MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.46W
08/21/2013 E0.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE
DIME SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW UP TO PENNY SIZED NEAR WRIGHT
STREET AND US-41.
&&
$$
DODSON
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KMQT [212035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212035
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
434 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM HAIL 9 NW EWEN 46.63N 89.42W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC
DIME TO PEA SIZED HAIL. ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 35 MPH.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
434 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM HAIL 9 NW EWEN 46.63N 89.42W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC
DIME TO PEA SIZED HAIL. ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 35 MPH.
&&
$$
DODSON
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KMPX [212034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 212034
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0325 PM HAIL LAKEVILLE 44.65N 93.25W
08/21/2013 M1.00 INCH DAKOTA MN PUBLIC
AT COUNTY ROAD 50 AND IPAVA AVE
&&
$$
LRS
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LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0325 PM HAIL LAKEVILLE 44.65N 93.25W
08/21/2013 M1.00 INCH DAKOTA MN PUBLIC
AT COUNTY ROAD 50 AND IPAVA AVE
&&
$$
LRS
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KLMK [212034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLMK 212034
LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
434 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0351 PM FLASH FLOOD LANCASTER 37.62N 84.58W
08/21/2013 GARRARD KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
CRAB ORCHARD ROAD IN LANCASTER WAS BRIEFLY CLOSED DUE
TO FLASH FLOODING. BUCKEYE ROAD WAS ALSO PARTIALLY
IMPEDED BY HIGH WATER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300455
$$
JSD
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LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
434 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0351 PM FLASH FLOOD LANCASTER 37.62N 84.58W
08/21/2013 GARRARD KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
CRAB ORCHARD ROAD IN LANCASTER WAS BRIEFLY CLOSED DUE
TO FLASH FLOODING. BUCKEYE ROAD WAS ALSO PARTIALLY
IMPEDED BY HIGH WATER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300455
$$
JSD
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KTBW [212031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTBW 212031
LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE TAMPA 27.91N 82.45W
08/21/2013 M50 MPH HILLSBOROUGH FL MESONET
MESONET STATION 4 SSE TAMPA /CW6730/
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE TAMPA 27.91N 82.45W
08/21/2013 M50 MPH HILLSBOROUGH FL MESONET
MESONET STATION 4 SSE TAMPA /CW6730/
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KLMK [212025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLMK 212025
LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
425 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM LIGHTNING BUCKEYE 37.72N 84.50W
08/21/2013 GARRARD KY EMERGENCY MNGR
*** 1 FATAL *** A LIGHTNING STRUCK A BARN IN BUCKEYE
OFF HIGHWAY 39...FATALLY INJURING A PERSON.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300454
$$
KJD
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LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
425 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM LIGHTNING BUCKEYE 37.72N 84.50W
08/21/2013 GARRARD KY EMERGENCY MNGR
*** 1 FATAL *** A LIGHTNING STRUCK A BARN IN BUCKEYE
OFF HIGHWAY 39...FATALLY INJURING A PERSON.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300454
$$
KJD
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KJKL [212023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KJKL 212023
LSRJKL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
422 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM FLASH FLOOD STANTON 37.85N 83.86W
08/21/2013 POWELL KY NWS EMPLOYEE
18 INCHES OF WATER WAS FLOWING ACROSS WILLOW BEND WAY IN
THE BROOKSIDE COTTAGE SUBDIVISION.
&&
$$
GEOGERIAN
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LSRJKL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
422 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM FLASH FLOOD STANTON 37.85N 83.86W
08/21/2013 POWELL KY NWS EMPLOYEE
18 INCHES OF WATER WAS FLOWING ACROSS WILLOW BEND WAY IN
THE BROOKSIDE COTTAGE SUBDIVISION.
&&
$$
GEOGERIAN
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KMQT [212021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212021
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0416 PM HAIL BERGLAND 46.59N 89.57W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC
DIME SIZED HAIL
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0416 PM HAIL BERGLAND 46.59N 89.57W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC
DIME SIZED HAIL
&&
$$
DODSON
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KMPX [212020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 212020
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0318 PM HAIL 1 N NEW PRAGUE 44.56N 93.57W
08/21/2013 M0.75 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
LRS
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LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0318 PM HAIL 1 N NEW PRAGUE 44.56N 93.57W
08/21/2013 M0.75 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
LRS
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KMQT [212018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212018
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM HAIL 3 W MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.46W
08/21/2013 E0.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC
SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMED SIZED HAIL MIXING WITH PENNY
SIZED HAIL BETWEEN 1555 AND 1655 EDT.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM HAIL 3 W MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.46W
08/21/2013 E0.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC
SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMED SIZED HAIL MIXING WITH PENNY
SIZED HAIL BETWEEN 1555 AND 1655 EDT.
&&
$$
DODSON
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KMQT [212016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212016
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM HAIL 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.54N 87.55W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC
DIME SIZED HAIL.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM HAIL 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.54N 87.55W
08/21/2013 E0.50 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC
DIME SIZED HAIL.
&&
$$
DODSON
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KMQT [212014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 212014
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HAIL SHOT POINT 46.51N 87.17W
08/21/2013 E1.00 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER TO DIME SIZED HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 TO 10 MINS.
&&
$$
DODSON
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HAIL SHOT POINT 46.51N 87.17W
08/21/2013 E1.00 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER TO DIME SIZED HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 TO 10 MINS.
&&
$$
DODSON
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KTBW [212010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTBW 212010
LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0348 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N WILLOW OAK 27.98N 82.02W
08/21/2013 M59 MPH POLK FL AWOS
LAKELAND LINDER AIRPORT /LAL/ REPORTED 59
MPH GUST
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0348 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N WILLOW OAK 27.98N 82.02W
08/21/2013 M59 MPH POLK FL AWOS
LAKELAND LINDER AIRPORT /LAL/ REPORTED 59
MPH GUST
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KMPX [212007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 212007
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
306 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 PM HAIL 3 W HENDERSON 44.53N 93.97W
08/21/2013 M0.88 INCH SIBLEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER
ON HIGHWAY 19
&&
$$
LRS
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LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
306 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 PM HAIL 3 W HENDERSON 44.53N 93.97W
08/21/2013 M0.88 INCH SIBLEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER
ON HIGHWAY 19
&&
$$
LRS
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KMPX [212005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 212005
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0246 PM HAIL JORDAN 44.68N 93.61W
08/21/2013 M0.75 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
LRS
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LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0246 PM HAIL JORDAN 44.68N 93.61W
08/21/2013 M0.75 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
LRS
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 211953
SWODY1
SPC AC 211950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MIDWEST...UPPER
GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL
PLAINS...MAINLY NEB...
--- UPDATES ---
...UPPER MIDWEST...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF SFC COLD FRONT OVER WRN UPPER MI AND NWRN
WI...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTN WHILE MOVING INTO VERY MOIST...DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZED AIR
MASS. PRIMARY RISKS ARE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NONZERO...IT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON LOCALIZED
STORM-SCALE/BOUNDARY-INTERACTION PROCESSES GIVEN EXPECTED TENDENCY
TOWARD QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODES AND LACK OF GREATER AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE MAINLY TO PERIPHERAL
PROBABILITY/CATEGORICAL LINES IN DEFERENCE TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS
WELL AS POSITION OF LS MARINE LAYER AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. REF WW
494 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST GUIDANCE ON
SVR POTENTIAL FROM NERN IA/SERN MN REGION EWD ACROSS WI AND UPPER
MI.
...NRN CA/SRN ORE...
ADDED MRGL HAIL PROBABILITIES IN DEFERENCE TO STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR AHEAD OF NWD-MOVING MID-UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE
CENTRAL CA COAST. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746 FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION ON NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL OVER THIS AREA.
...OH VALLEY TO S-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS REMAINS EVIDENT FROM
SRN OH TO NRN TN...WHERE BELT OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL WINDS
AND DEEP SHEAR IS APPARENT E OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING ENEWD
OVER OH VALLEY. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1741 AND 1744 FOR
NEAR-TERM DETAILS OVER THIS REGION.
..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE...LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS S CNTRL
CANADA THIS PERIOD...ON NRN FRINGE OF BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE RCKYS AND PLNS. POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE CANADIAN JET...NOW ENTERING WRN ONT...SHOULD REACH THE AREA N
OF LK SUPERIOR THIS EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO WRN QUE EARLY
THU. ELSEWHERE...E PACIFIC UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EDGING E
TOWARD SFO...WHILE WEAKER SYSTEM DEVOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER
THE OH VLY.
AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONT TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ESE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...WHILE BECOMING
STNRY OVER CNTRL/SRN NEB. THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.
...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS THIS AFTN/EVE...
GIVEN RICH MOISTURE OVER REGION /PW AROUND 1.75 IN/...STRONG SFC
HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CIN AND
SUPPORT SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING SE
MN...NRN/CNTRL WI...AND UPR MI LATER TODAY. DEEP EML SAMPLED BY THE
12Z MSP RAOB SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...WITH
POCKETS OF MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTN. WHILE IMPACT
OF THE ONT UPR TROUGH WILL BE MINIMAL S OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME DEGREE
OF ANCILLARY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GLANCE WI/UPR MI. COUPLED WITH
25-30 KT WNWLY 700-500 MB FLOW...OVERALL SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW
CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED MULTICELLS...TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS...AND BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
THROUGH EARLY TNGT.
...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
A SEPARATE AREA OF ENHANCED SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTN
INTO TNGT OVER PARTS OF NEB...WHERE LOW-LVL WAA WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR
STALLING SFC FRONT. ELY LOW-LVL WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY BENEATH BAND
OF ENHANCED /25 KT/ WLY MID-LVL FLOW ON IMMEDIATE N SIDE OF THE UPR
RIDGE WILL YIELD WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
STORMS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL
AND WIND AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. STALLING OF THE
FRONT AND EXPECTED NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF SLY LLJ SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SIZABLE MCS OR TWO TNGT...WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SVR RISK.
...NRN CA/SRN ORE/NW NV THIS AFTN/EVE...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPR-LVL UPR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS PARTS OF CA/ORE/NV TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU AS OFFSHORE LOW
EDGES E TOWARD REGION. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE
/PW UP TO 1 IN/ WILL YIELD SBCAPE SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE COULD YIELD
ISOLD INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL. WITH SHEAR/UPR DIVERGENCE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH EARLY THU...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN
CA...A CONDITIONAL ISOLD SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
...ERN KY/WRN WV AREA THIS AFTN...
A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTN ON ERN FLANK OF SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE UPR LOW/TROUGH...WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE ENHANCED BY RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS
/MINUS 10 C AT 500 MB/ AND STORM ORGANIZATION FOSTERED BY BAND OF
DCVA/UPR DIVERGENCE.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 211950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MIDWEST...UPPER
GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL
PLAINS...MAINLY NEB...
--- UPDATES ---
...UPPER MIDWEST...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF SFC COLD FRONT OVER WRN UPPER MI AND NWRN
WI...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTN WHILE MOVING INTO VERY MOIST...DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZED AIR
MASS. PRIMARY RISKS ARE DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NONZERO...IT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON LOCALIZED
STORM-SCALE/BOUNDARY-INTERACTION PROCESSES GIVEN EXPECTED TENDENCY
TOWARD QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODES AND LACK OF GREATER AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE MAINLY TO PERIPHERAL
PROBABILITY/CATEGORICAL LINES IN DEFERENCE TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS
WELL AS POSITION OF LS MARINE LAYER AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. REF WW
494 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST GUIDANCE ON
SVR POTENTIAL FROM NERN IA/SERN MN REGION EWD ACROSS WI AND UPPER
MI.
...NRN CA/SRN ORE...
ADDED MRGL HAIL PROBABILITIES IN DEFERENCE TO STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR AHEAD OF NWD-MOVING MID-UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE
CENTRAL CA COAST. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746 FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION ON NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL OVER THIS AREA.
...OH VALLEY TO S-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS REMAINS EVIDENT FROM
SRN OH TO NRN TN...WHERE BELT OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL WINDS
AND DEEP SHEAR IS APPARENT E OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING ENEWD
OVER OH VALLEY. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1741 AND 1744 FOR
NEAR-TERM DETAILS OVER THIS REGION.
..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE...LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS S CNTRL
CANADA THIS PERIOD...ON NRN FRINGE OF BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE RCKYS AND PLNS. POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE CANADIAN JET...NOW ENTERING WRN ONT...SHOULD REACH THE AREA N
OF LK SUPERIOR THIS EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO WRN QUE EARLY
THU. ELSEWHERE...E PACIFIC UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EDGING E
TOWARD SFO...WHILE WEAKER SYSTEM DEVOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER
THE OH VLY.
AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONT TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ESE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...WHILE BECOMING
STNRY OVER CNTRL/SRN NEB. THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.
...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS THIS AFTN/EVE...
GIVEN RICH MOISTURE OVER REGION /PW AROUND 1.75 IN/...STRONG SFC
HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CIN AND
SUPPORT SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING SE
MN...NRN/CNTRL WI...AND UPR MI LATER TODAY. DEEP EML SAMPLED BY THE
12Z MSP RAOB SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...WITH
POCKETS OF MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTN. WHILE IMPACT
OF THE ONT UPR TROUGH WILL BE MINIMAL S OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME DEGREE
OF ANCILLARY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GLANCE WI/UPR MI. COUPLED WITH
25-30 KT WNWLY 700-500 MB FLOW...OVERALL SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW
CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED MULTICELLS...TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS...AND BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
THROUGH EARLY TNGT.
...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
A SEPARATE AREA OF ENHANCED SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTN
INTO TNGT OVER PARTS OF NEB...WHERE LOW-LVL WAA WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR
STALLING SFC FRONT. ELY LOW-LVL WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY BENEATH BAND
OF ENHANCED /25 KT/ WLY MID-LVL FLOW ON IMMEDIATE N SIDE OF THE UPR
RIDGE WILL YIELD WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
STORMS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL
AND WIND AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. STALLING OF THE
FRONT AND EXPECTED NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF SLY LLJ SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SIZABLE MCS OR TWO TNGT...WITH A GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SVR RISK.
...NRN CA/SRN ORE/NW NV THIS AFTN/EVE...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID/UPR-LVL UPR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS PARTS OF CA/ORE/NV TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU AS OFFSHORE LOW
EDGES E TOWARD REGION. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE
/PW UP TO 1 IN/ WILL YIELD SBCAPE SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE COULD YIELD
ISOLD INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL. WITH SHEAR/UPR DIVERGENCE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH EARLY THU...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN
CA...A CONDITIONAL ISOLD SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
...ERN KY/WRN WV AREA THIS AFTN...
A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTN ON ERN FLANK OF SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE UPR LOW/TROUGH...WHERE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE ENHANCED BY RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS
/MINUS 10 C AT 500 MB/ AND STORM ORGANIZATION FOSTERED BY BAND OF
DCVA/UPR DIVERGENCE.
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KLMK [211949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLMK 211949
LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
349 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N STANFORD 37.59N 84.66W
08/21/2013 M2.82 INCH LINCOLN KY MESONET
KENTUCKY MESONET SITE NORTH OF STANFORD MEASURED 2.82
INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR AND 10 MINUTES.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300453
$$
JSD
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LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
349 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N STANFORD 37.59N 84.66W
08/21/2013 M2.82 INCH LINCOLN KY MESONET
KENTUCKY MESONET SITE NORTH OF STANFORD MEASURED 2.82
INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR AND 10 MINUTES.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300453
$$
JSD
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KJKL [211949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KJKL 211949
LSRJKL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
349 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0349 PM HAIL CAMPTON 37.74N 83.55W
08/21/2013 E0.25 INCH WOLFE KY PUBLIC
&&
$$
JCARICO
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LSRJKL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
349 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0349 PM HAIL CAMPTON 37.74N 83.55W
08/21/2013 E0.25 INCH WOLFE KY PUBLIC
&&
$$
JCARICO
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KTBW [211943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTBW 211943
LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
343 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0333 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW EAGLE LAKE 27.95N 81.79W
08/21/2013 M60 MPH POLK FL MESONET
MESONET STATION 3 SW EAGLE LAKE /AP837/
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
343 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0333 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW EAGLE LAKE 27.95N 81.79W
08/21/2013 M60 MPH POLK FL MESONET
MESONET STATION 3 SW EAGLE LAKE /AP837/
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KTAE [211940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTAE 211940
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0257 PM TSTM WND DMG RAY CITY 31.07N 83.20W
08/21/2013 BERRIEN GA 911 CALL CENTER
SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. ONE OVER POWER LINES.
0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S NASHVILLE 31.13N 83.25W
08/21/2013 BERRIEN GA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ON AULIEGASKINS RD.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0257 PM TSTM WND DMG RAY CITY 31.07N 83.20W
08/21/2013 BERRIEN GA 911 CALL CENTER
SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. ONE OVER POWER LINES.
0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S NASHVILLE 31.13N 83.25W
08/21/2013 BERRIEN GA 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ON AULIEGASKINS RD.
&&
$$
MOORE
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KREV [211939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KREV 211939
LSRREV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1239 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM HAIL NW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.94N 119.99W
08/21/2013 E0.25 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL. STARTING TO
ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND.
&&
$$
JKIELHOR
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LSRREV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1239 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM HAIL NW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.94N 119.99W
08/21/2013 E0.25 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL. STARTING TO
ACCUMULATE ON THE GROUND.
&&
$$
JKIELHOR
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KLMK [211934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLMK 211934
LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0327 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N STANFORD 37.59N 84.66W
08/21/2013 M2.00 INCH LINCOLN KY MESONET
THE KENTUCKY MESONET SITE NORTH OF STANFORD MEASURED 2
INCHES IN ONE HOUR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300452
$$
JSD
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LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
334 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0327 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N STANFORD 37.59N 84.66W
08/21/2013 M2.00 INCH LINCOLN KY MESONET
THE KENTUCKY MESONET SITE NORTH OF STANFORD MEASURED 2
INCHES IN ONE HOUR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300452
$$
JSD
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KTAE [211932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KTAE 211932
LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0235 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE LAKELAND 30.98N 83.06W
08/21/2013 LANIER GA 911 CALL CENTER
HUGE PECAN TREE DOWN AT 439 GOODHOPE RD. SEVERAL OTHER
TREES DOWN. ONE TREE OVER A POWER LINE REPORTED IN
LAKELAND. NO INJURIES.
&&
$$
MOORE
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LSRTAE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0235 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE LAKELAND 30.98N 83.06W
08/21/2013 LANIER GA 911 CALL CENTER
HUGE PECAN TREE DOWN AT 439 GOODHOPE RD. SEVERAL OTHER
TREES DOWN. ONE TREE OVER A POWER LINE REPORTED IN
LAKELAND. NO INJURIES.
&&
$$
MOORE
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 494
WWUS20 KWNS 211931
SEL4
SPC WW 211931
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-220400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
UPPER MICHIGAN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MOSINEE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING ALONG NW WI/WRN UPR MI COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE AS
SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION/ELIMINATES CIN...AND AS AREA
IS GLANCED BY UPR IMPULSE CROSSING WRN ONT. AMPLE WNWLY DEEP SHEAR
WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED/STORMS SUPERCELLS/LEWPS CAPABLE OF SVR
HAIL/WIND GIVEN RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND DEEP EML. A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN UPR MI AND NRN WI WHERE LOW-LVL
SHEAR MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR INTERSECTION OF FRONT WITH
WSW-ENE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS IN ND/MN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...CORFIDI
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SEL4
SPC WW 211931
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-220400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
UPPER MICHIGAN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MOSINEE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING ALONG NW WI/WRN UPR MI COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE AS
SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION/ELIMINATES CIN...AND AS AREA
IS GLANCED BY UPR IMPULSE CROSSING WRN ONT. AMPLE WNWLY DEEP SHEAR
WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED/STORMS SUPERCELLS/LEWPS CAPABLE OF SVR
HAIL/WIND GIVEN RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND DEEP EML. A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN UPR MI AND NRN WI WHERE LOW-LVL
SHEAR MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR INTERSECTION OF FRONT WITH
WSW-ENE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS IN ND/MN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...CORFIDI
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1746
ACUS11 KWNS 211931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211930
NVZ000-CAZ000-ORZ000-212200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN CA...NWRN NV...EXTREME SRN ORE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211930Z - 212200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING
CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA. THIS IS WITHIN AN ARC OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COILING AROUND THE NERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
CYCLONE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE SAN FRANCISCO COAST -- PER
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN DETECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION S OF RENO...AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER N TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN CA INCLUDING THE KLAMATH MOUNTAINS.
FURTHER DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING OF OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
BECOMING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS/ADIABATIC COOLING PRECEDING THE CYCLONE...WHOSE CENTROID WILL
SLOWLY EDGE NNEWD WITH TIME...SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE IS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
AROUND 0.7-1.4 INCHES PER GPS DATA AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. GIVEN THE COUPLING OF THIS MOISTURE WITH
DIABATIC SFC HEATING/RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE MAINTAINED AND SUPPORT A FEW
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS INTO THIS EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS FAIRLY WELL-SCULPTED...DOWNSHEAR-
DIRECTED ANVILS AROUND THE CNTRL SIERRA...WHICH ARE LIKELY
RESPONDING TO MODEST HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER IS LIKELY
MINIMIZING DEEP SHEAR...SUCH THAT CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE
TO EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY OCCUR AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED MULTICELL STRUCTURES INTO THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS MAY YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR WIND...WITH LARGE SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
OVER 30F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ENHANCING SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIVE
COOLING/SFC-GUST POTENTIAL. SPORADIC...MARGINAL SVR HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONE OVER NRN CA.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR/RICHER MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...MFR...STO...EKA...
LAT...LON 40622183 40492246 39962281 39942333 40592390 41512382
42032297 42202143 41981972 40631882 39021856 38331891
38281968 38692031 39842095 40622183
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211930
NVZ000-CAZ000-ORZ000-212200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN CA...NWRN NV...EXTREME SRN ORE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211930Z - 212200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING
CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA. THIS IS WITHIN AN ARC OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COILING AROUND THE NERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
CYCLONE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE SAN FRANCISCO COAST -- PER
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN DETECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION S OF RENO...AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER N TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN CA INCLUDING THE KLAMATH MOUNTAINS.
FURTHER DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING OF OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
BECOMING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS/ADIABATIC COOLING PRECEDING THE CYCLONE...WHOSE CENTROID WILL
SLOWLY EDGE NNEWD WITH TIME...SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE IS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
AROUND 0.7-1.4 INCHES PER GPS DATA AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. GIVEN THE COUPLING OF THIS MOISTURE WITH
DIABATIC SFC HEATING/RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE MAINTAINED AND SUPPORT A FEW
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS INTO THIS EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS FAIRLY WELL-SCULPTED...DOWNSHEAR-
DIRECTED ANVILS AROUND THE CNTRL SIERRA...WHICH ARE LIKELY
RESPONDING TO MODEST HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER IS LIKELY
MINIMIZING DEEP SHEAR...SUCH THAT CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE
TO EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY OCCUR AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED MULTICELL STRUCTURES INTO THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS MAY YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR WIND...WITH LARGE SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
OVER 30F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ENHANCING SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIVE
COOLING/SFC-GUST POTENTIAL. SPORADIC...MARGINAL SVR HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONE OVER NRN CA.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR/RICHER MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...MFR...STO...EKA...
LAT...LON 40622183 40492246 39962281 39942333 40592390 41512382
42032297 42202143 41981972 40631882 39021856 38331891
38281968 38692031 39842095 40622183
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KLMK [211930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLMK 211930
LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM FLOOD LANCASTER 37.62N 84.58W
08/21/2013 GARRARD KY EMERGENCY MNGR
TWO ROADS IN LANCASTER HAVE WATER OVER THEM
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300451
$$
RL
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LSRLMK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM FLOOD LANCASTER 37.62N 84.58W
08/21/2013 GARRARD KY EMERGENCY MNGR
TWO ROADS IN LANCASTER HAVE WATER OVER THEM
&&
EVENT NUMBER LMK1300451
$$
RL
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KFFC [211930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KFFC 211930
LSRFFC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0859 PM TSTM WND DMG PITTS 31.94N 83.54W
08/20/2013 WILCOX GA UTILITY COMPANY
MIDDLE GEORGIA EMC REPORTS A FEW POWER OUTAGES IN WILCOX
COUNTY. MOST OF THE ISSUES WERE CAUSED BY DOWNED LIMBS.
ALSO WILCOX COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN
PITTS WITH THESE STORMS. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
$$
AGIBBS
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LSRFFC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0859 PM TSTM WND DMG PITTS 31.94N 83.54W
08/20/2013 WILCOX GA UTILITY COMPANY
MIDDLE GEORGIA EMC REPORTS A FEW POWER OUTAGES IN WILCOX
COUNTY. MOST OF THE ISSUES WERE CAUSED BY DOWNED LIMBS.
ALSO WILCOX COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN
PITTS WITH THESE STORMS. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
$$
AGIBBS
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KJAX [211922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KJAX 211922
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM LIGHTNING 7 SW FLAGLER BEACH 29.40N 81.21W
08/21/2013 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
AT HOME AT 17 WILDERNESS WAY IN THE BULOW AREA WAS STRUCK
BY LIGHTNING, WHICH CREATED A HOLE IN THE ROOF.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM LIGHTNING 7 SW FLAGLER BEACH 29.40N 81.21W
08/21/2013 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
AT HOME AT 17 WILDERNESS WAY IN THE BULOW AREA WAS STRUCK
BY LIGHTNING, WHICH CREATED A HOLE IN THE ROOF.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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KJAX [211920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 211920
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM LIGHTNING 7 SW FLAGLER BEACH 29.40N 81.21W
08/21/2013 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
AT HOME AT 17 WILDERNESS WAY IN THE BULOW AREA WAS STRUCK
BY LIGHTNING, WHICH CREATED A HOME IN THE ROOF.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM LIGHTNING 7 SW FLAGLER BEACH 29.40N 81.21W
08/21/2013 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
AT HOME AT 17 WILDERNESS WAY IN THE BULOW AREA WAS STRUCK
BY LIGHTNING, WHICH CREATED A HOME IN THE ROOF.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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KFFC [211907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KFFC 211907
LSRFFC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 N CLEVELAND 34.61N 83.76W
08/21/2013 WHITE GA EMERGENCY MNGR
COUNTY ADMINISTRATION BUILDING HAD MINOR FLOODING FROM
WATER COMING OUT OF NEARBY CREEK.
&&
$$
SNELSON
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LSRFFC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 N CLEVELAND 34.61N 83.76W
08/21/2013 WHITE GA EMERGENCY MNGR
COUNTY ADMINISTRATION BUILDING HAD MINOR FLOODING FROM
WATER COMING OUT OF NEARBY CREEK.
&&
$$
SNELSON
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KHGX [211851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHGX 211851
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
151 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0103 PM FUNNEL CLOUD TEXAS CITY 29.41N 94.96W
08/21/2013 GALVESTON TX 911 CALL CENTER
3 FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER GALVESTON BAY NEAR THE TEXAS CITY
DIKE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300173
$$
DH
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
151 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0103 PM FUNNEL CLOUD TEXAS CITY 29.41N 94.96W
08/21/2013 GALVESTON TX 911 CALL CENTER
3 FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER GALVESTON BAY NEAR THE TEXAS CITY
DIKE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300173
$$
DH
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1744
ACUS11 KWNS 211849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211848
OHZ000-212115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211848Z - 212115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE AN ARC OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM S OF THE COLUMBUS METRO
AREA TO NW OF DAYTON...LIKELY A MANIFESTATION OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
UPWARD MOTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING CYCLONE PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM FROM SERN INDIANA
INTO NRN KY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONE CENTER. DCVA
PRECEDING THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DESTABILIZATION OF THE FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN AREAS VOID OF
PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING CONTINUES AS SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
60S TO THE S OF A SUBTLE...WNW/ESE-ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY COULD EDGE SLIGHTLY
NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE DEEPER CIRCULATION IN THE ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE...FOSTERING SOME ADDITIONAL NWD
DESTABILIZATION...PERHAPS INTO N-CNTRL OHIO.
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONG DIABATIC SFC
HEATING HAS OCCURRED S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...AIDED BY
COOL 500-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C TO -10C INVOF THE CYCLONE. THIS
MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY SFC WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. DESPITE MODEST HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTIVE VENTILATION...VWP DATA FROM
WILMINGTON INDICATE 15 KT OR LESS OF LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
WEAK DEEP SHEAR OWING TO LIMITED HEIGHT GRADIENTS IN PROXIMITY TO
THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THOUGH AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR
A DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...
LAT...LON 39378180 39258340 38848405 39948448 40658455 41208402
41308305 40758208 39978147 39378180
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211848
OHZ000-212115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211848Z - 212115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE AN ARC OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM S OF THE COLUMBUS METRO
AREA TO NW OF DAYTON...LIKELY A MANIFESTATION OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
UPWARD MOTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING CYCLONE PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM FROM SERN INDIANA
INTO NRN KY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONE CENTER. DCVA
PRECEDING THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DESTABILIZATION OF THE FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN AREAS VOID OF
PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING CONTINUES AS SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
60S TO THE S OF A SUBTLE...WNW/ESE-ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY COULD EDGE SLIGHTLY
NWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE DEEPER CIRCULATION IN THE ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE...FOSTERING SOME ADDITIONAL NWD
DESTABILIZATION...PERHAPS INTO N-CNTRL OHIO.
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONG DIABATIC SFC
HEATING HAS OCCURRED S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...AIDED BY
COOL 500-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C TO -10C INVOF THE CYCLONE. THIS
MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY SFC WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. DESPITE MODEST HIGH-LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTIVE VENTILATION...VWP DATA FROM
WILMINGTON INDICATE 15 KT OR LESS OF LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
WEAK DEEP SHEAR OWING TO LIMITED HEIGHT GRADIENTS IN PROXIMITY TO
THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...THOUGH AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR
A DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...
LAT...LON 39378180 39258340 38848405 39948448 40658455 41208402
41308305 40758208 39978147 39378180
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KDMX [211828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDMX 211828
LSRDMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
128 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0113 PM HAIL 3 NW FENTON 43.26N 94.47W
08/21/2013 E1.25 INCH PALO ALTO IA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
&&
$$
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LSRDMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
128 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0113 PM HAIL 3 NW FENTON 43.26N 94.47W
08/21/2013 E1.25 INCH PALO ALTO IA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
&&
$$
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KOHX [211826]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KOHX 211826
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
126 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW DICKSON 36.05N 87.39W
08/20/2013 DICKSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF DICKSON
INCLUDING ONE DOWN ON A CAR.
&&
CORRECTED REMARKS
EVENT NUMBER OHX1300665
$$
AL
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
126 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW DICKSON 36.05N 87.39W
08/20/2013 DICKSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF DICKSON
INCLUDING ONE DOWN ON A CAR.
&&
CORRECTED REMARKS
EVENT NUMBER OHX1300665
$$
AL
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1743
ACUS11 KWNS 211800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211759
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-212030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN SC...ERN/SRN GA...INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE WRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA...ERN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211759Z - 212030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE DEEPENING
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS WITHIN A DESTABILIZING...MOIST AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES PER GPS DATA.
DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IN AREAS VOID
OF PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
UPTICK IN THE NUMBER/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE.
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT FOCUSING GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
BE FOCUSED INVOF A DEVELOPING W-FLORIDA-COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT ALONG
WHICH CONVERGENCE WILL BE BOLSTERED BY IMPINGING DEEP ELY FLOW
SAMPLED BY TBW VWP DATA. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE
WRN FL PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WWD-MOVING COLD
POOLS EVENTUALLY SHUNTING THE GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OFFSHORE
BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT WILL ALSO BE AUGMENTED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT PRECEDES A DISORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED COLD
POOL ADVANCING INLAND OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA...WITH ADDITIONAL FOCI
FOR INCIPIENT CONVECTION EMANATING FROM SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FARTHER N TOWARD/OVER THE SC COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INLAND.
PER AREA VWP DATA...WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR WILL LARGELY
MITIGATE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND WEAK BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING SFC GUSTS -- MOST LIKELY -- SUB-SEVERE.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS OWING TO STRONG WATER LOADING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE UPSCALE GROWTH WITH
MERGING/AGGREGATING COLD POOLS.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 26928238 27488277 29048322 30098414 30788427 31768356
34038075 34457968 34147904 33587900 32698010 31918156
30338259 28048166 27068182 26928238
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211759
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-212030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN SC...ERN/SRN GA...INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE WRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA...ERN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211759Z - 212030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE DEEPENING
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS WITHIN A DESTABILIZING...MOIST AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES AROUND 1.75-2.00 INCHES PER GPS DATA.
DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IN AREAS VOID
OF PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
UPTICK IN THE NUMBER/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE.
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT FOCUSING GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
BE FOCUSED INVOF A DEVELOPING W-FLORIDA-COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT ALONG
WHICH CONVERGENCE WILL BE BOLSTERED BY IMPINGING DEEP ELY FLOW
SAMPLED BY TBW VWP DATA. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE
WRN FL PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WWD-MOVING COLD
POOLS EVENTUALLY SHUNTING THE GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OFFSHORE
BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT WILL ALSO BE AUGMENTED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT PRECEDES A DISORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED COLD
POOL ADVANCING INLAND OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA...WITH ADDITIONAL FOCI
FOR INCIPIENT CONVECTION EMANATING FROM SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
FARTHER N TOWARD/OVER THE SC COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH WILL SPREAD
INLAND.
PER AREA VWP DATA...WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR WILL LARGELY
MITIGATE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND WEAK BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING SFC GUSTS -- MOST LIKELY -- SUB-SEVERE.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS OWING TO STRONG WATER LOADING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE UPSCALE GROWTH WITH
MERGING/AGGREGATING COLD POOLS.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 26928238 27488277 29048322 30098414 30788427 31768356
34038075 34457968 34147904 33587900 32698010 31918156
30338259 28048166 27068182 26928238
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1742
ACUS11 KWNS 211742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211741
IAZ000-MNZ000-211915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IA/EXTREME SOUTHERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211741Z - 211915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IA AND
PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT-TERM
EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. A MORE
CERTAIN/ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A RIBBON OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY. THIS IS LIKELY A FACTOR TO A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS NORTHERN IA SINCE 1630Z. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR JUST AHEAD OF
A SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT...THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT EVEN SO...SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A
PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL. GIVEN A WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR WHAT COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONSEQUENTIAL
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT INTO A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL TO
INCREASE ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING OWING TO FRONTAL UPLIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DESTABILIZING PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42919492 43829504 43789310 43319179 42129209 42919492
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211741
IAZ000-MNZ000-211915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IA/EXTREME SOUTHERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211741Z - 211915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IA AND
PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHERN MN...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT-TERM
EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. A MORE
CERTAIN/ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A RIBBON OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY. THIS IS LIKELY A FACTOR TO A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN A FEW TSTMS
ACROSS NORTHERN IA SINCE 1630Z. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR JUST AHEAD OF
A SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT...THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT EVEN SO...SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A
PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL. GIVEN A WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR WHAT COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONSEQUENTIAL
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT INTO A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL TO
INCREASE ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING OWING TO FRONTAL UPLIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DESTABILIZING PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42919492 43829504 43789310 43319179 42129209 42919492
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 211726
SWODY2
SPC AC 211724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM IS FCST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED THROUGH DAY-2. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SK -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD AND
STRENGTHEN. PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH LS BY 22/12Z...SERN ONT/SWRN
QUE BY 23/00Z...AND MAINE BY END OF PERIOD. IN ADVANCE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WEAK TROUGH NOW OVER INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MID-ATLC
AND NC AROUND 23/00Z. FARTHER W...WEAK PERTURBATION NOW OVER SRN ID
BORDER REGION IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY THROUGH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION OVER NRN ROCKIES...REACHING SRN MT AND NRN WY AROUND
23/00Z...AND WRN SD OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT/WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER
CYCLONE...INITIALLY LOCATED OFFSHORE CENTRAL CA -- IS EXPECTED TO
DEVOLVE TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH EARLY IN PERIOD WHILE MOVING ASHORE
BETWEEN SFO AND CAPE MENDOCINO. RESULTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE NNEWD ACROSS NRN CA AND SRN/CENTRAL ORE THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...WHILE CONTINUING TO DEAMPLIFY.
AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT FROM NERN MN SWWD ACROSS
E-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL SD TO NERN WY. BY 22/12Z...FRONT SHOULD BE
LOCATED FROM LH TO SRN WI TO CENTRAL IA...SRN NEB AND NERN CO.
NEB/CO SEGMENT OF FRONT SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WHILE ERN PORTION OF FRONT PROCEEDS TO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AREA OF SRN QUE...LE...NRN INDIANA...CENTRAL IL...AND NRN MO BY
23/00Z. AT THAT TIME...SFC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM FRONTAL
INTERSECTION OVER NERN CO/SWRN NEB REGION SWD ACROSS ERN
CO...PERHAPS WITH WEAK/ACCOMPANYING LOW. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR NEW ENGLAND COAST SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...THEN WWD OVER SRN IL...WHILE MOVING NWD AS WARM FRONT
OVER PORTIONS ERN NEB AND WRN SD.
...NERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT DURING AFTN...OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL
TSTMS POSSIBLE ENEWD ACROSS SRN QUE AND NRN MAINE. ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH AFTN ABOVE FRONT WITH APCH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 60S F...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER MAINE AND NY...AND 1000-1500
J/KG SWWD OVER PORTIONS PA/OH. LACK OF STRONGER PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST THESE THREE FACTORS...DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...AND VERTICAL SHEAR...APPEARS TO PRECLUDE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL/ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BY MID-LATE AFTN...LIGHT ELY/NELY FLOW NEAR FRONT AND NW OF LEE
TROUGH/LOW SHOULD ADVECT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONTO HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 50S F
THERE TO 60S ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL NEB. WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGLY HEATED/MIXED AIR
OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
OCCUR. THOUGH STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THIS
REGIME...WEAK LOW-LEVEL SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...AND LACK
OF STRONGER MID-UPPER WINDS WILL RESTRICT DEEP SHEAR. AS SUCH...ANY
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL/TRANSIENT...AND OVERALL SVR THREAT
APPEARS RATHER DISORGANIZED.
...NRN CA...NWRN NV...SRN ORE...
APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER FLOW
THROUGH AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA -- E.G. 60-70 KT AT 250 MB
AND 30-40 KT AT 500 MB -- AS WELL AS INCREASING DCVA/UVV ALOFT.
LATTER WILL COMBINE WITH DIABATIC SFC HEATING TO YIELD FAVORABLY
STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH PW TO
SUPPORT 40S-50S F SFC DEW POINTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTN AND MOVE
PRIMARILY NWD TO NNEWD. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...IN SUPPORT OF
ISOLATED SVR GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION.
..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 211724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM IS FCST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED THROUGH DAY-2. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SK -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD AND
STRENGTHEN. PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH LS BY 22/12Z...SERN ONT/SWRN
QUE BY 23/00Z...AND MAINE BY END OF PERIOD. IN ADVANCE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WEAK TROUGH NOW OVER INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MID-ATLC
AND NC AROUND 23/00Z. FARTHER W...WEAK PERTURBATION NOW OVER SRN ID
BORDER REGION IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SLOWLY THROUGH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION OVER NRN ROCKIES...REACHING SRN MT AND NRN WY AROUND
23/00Z...AND WRN SD OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT/WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER
CYCLONE...INITIALLY LOCATED OFFSHORE CENTRAL CA -- IS EXPECTED TO
DEVOLVE TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH EARLY IN PERIOD WHILE MOVING ASHORE
BETWEEN SFO AND CAPE MENDOCINO. RESULTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE NNEWD ACROSS NRN CA AND SRN/CENTRAL ORE THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...WHILE CONTINUING TO DEAMPLIFY.
AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT FROM NERN MN SWWD ACROSS
E-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL SD TO NERN WY. BY 22/12Z...FRONT SHOULD BE
LOCATED FROM LH TO SRN WI TO CENTRAL IA...SRN NEB AND NERN CO.
NEB/CO SEGMENT OF FRONT SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WHILE ERN PORTION OF FRONT PROCEEDS TO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AREA OF SRN QUE...LE...NRN INDIANA...CENTRAL IL...AND NRN MO BY
23/00Z. AT THAT TIME...SFC TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM FRONTAL
INTERSECTION OVER NERN CO/SWRN NEB REGION SWD ACROSS ERN
CO...PERHAPS WITH WEAK/ACCOMPANYING LOW. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR NEW ENGLAND COAST SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...THEN WWD OVER SRN IL...WHILE MOVING NWD AS WARM FRONT
OVER PORTIONS ERN NEB AND WRN SD.
...NERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT DURING AFTN...OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL
TSTMS POSSIBLE ENEWD ACROSS SRN QUE AND NRN MAINE. ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE THROUGH AFTN ABOVE FRONT WITH APCH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 60S F...ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER MAINE AND NY...AND 1000-1500
J/KG SWWD OVER PORTIONS PA/OH. LACK OF STRONGER PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST THESE THREE FACTORS...DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...AND VERTICAL SHEAR...APPEARS TO PRECLUDE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL/ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BY MID-LATE AFTN...LIGHT ELY/NELY FLOW NEAR FRONT AND NW OF LEE
TROUGH/LOW SHOULD ADVECT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONTO HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND NERN CO...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 50S F
THERE TO 60S ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL NEB. WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGLY HEATED/MIXED AIR
OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
OCCUR. THOUGH STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THIS
REGIME...WEAK LOW-LEVEL SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...AND LACK
OF STRONGER MID-UPPER WINDS WILL RESTRICT DEEP SHEAR. AS SUCH...ANY
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL/TRANSIENT...AND OVERALL SVR THREAT
APPEARS RATHER DISORGANIZED.
...NRN CA...NWRN NV...SRN ORE...
APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER FLOW
THROUGH AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA -- E.G. 60-70 KT AT 250 MB
AND 30-40 KT AT 500 MB -- AS WELL AS INCREASING DCVA/UVV ALOFT.
LATTER WILL COMBINE WITH DIABATIC SFC HEATING TO YIELD FAVORABLY
STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH PW TO
SUPPORT 40S-50S F SFC DEW POINTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTN AND MOVE
PRIMARILY NWD TO NNEWD. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...IN SUPPORT OF
ISOLATED SVR GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION.
..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2013
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1741
ACUS11 KWNS 211726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211726
NCZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-212000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN OH...ERN KY...ERN
TN...SRN/WRN/CNTRL WV...WRN VA...WRN NC...WRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211726Z - 212000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS
AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED MARGINAL
SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...FAIRLY RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 1.5-1.7-INCH PW VALUES PER GPS DATA...ALONG WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. POCKETS OF AT LEAST
FILTERED SUNSHINE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING
INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z
RAOBS FROM WILMINGTON OHIO AND NASHVILLE TENNESSEE SUGGEST MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND ADJACENT
TN/OH/WV IN AREAS OF GREATER INSOLATION. DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO
BEING CONTRIBUTED BY THE INFLUENCE OF DCVA/MID-LEVEL ASCENT
PRECEDING A CYCLONE THAT IS APPROACHING SWRN OHIO FROM THE W PER
WATER VAPOR DATA.
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH DIURNALLY
DEEPENING PBL AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST WEAK MLCINH AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SHOULD FOSTER A CONTINUED UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VWP DATA
ACROSS THE MCD AREA SAMPLE A BAND OF 20-40-KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT SE OF THE CYCLONE --
STRONGEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONE PER JKL VWP.
CORRESPONDING ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THAT MAY PRODUCE STRONG SFC GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
COULD EVOLVE WITH THE MOST INTENSE/SUSTAINED STORMS. SUCH POTENTIAL
/ALBEIT LIMITED/ WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN AREAS OF GREATER ANTECEDENT
SFC DIABATIC HEATING -- I.E. ACROSS ERN KY...WRN WV...AND SRN OH.
LIMITED SPATIAL PHASING BETWEEN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE CYCLONE AND ZONE OF ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE
OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...
LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 36028626 38988350 39348188 38888056 37298031 35088023
34218146 34378251 35518234 35798318 35368443 35328560
36028626
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211726
NCZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-212000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN OH...ERN KY...ERN
TN...SRN/WRN/CNTRL WV...WRN VA...WRN NC...WRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211726Z - 212000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BROAD AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS
AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED MARGINAL
SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...FAIRLY RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH 1.5-1.7-INCH PW VALUES PER GPS DATA...ALONG WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. POCKETS OF AT LEAST
FILTERED SUNSHINE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING
INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z
RAOBS FROM WILMINGTON OHIO AND NASHVILLE TENNESSEE SUGGEST MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND ADJACENT
TN/OH/WV IN AREAS OF GREATER INSOLATION. DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO
BEING CONTRIBUTED BY THE INFLUENCE OF DCVA/MID-LEVEL ASCENT
PRECEDING A CYCLONE THAT IS APPROACHING SWRN OHIO FROM THE W PER
WATER VAPOR DATA.
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH DIURNALLY
DEEPENING PBL AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST WEAK MLCINH AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SHOULD FOSTER A CONTINUED UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VWP DATA
ACROSS THE MCD AREA SAMPLE A BAND OF 20-40-KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT SE OF THE CYCLONE --
STRONGEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONE PER JKL VWP.
CORRESPONDING ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THAT MAY PRODUCE STRONG SFC GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
COULD EVOLVE WITH THE MOST INTENSE/SUSTAINED STORMS. SUCH POTENTIAL
/ALBEIT LIMITED/ WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN AREAS OF GREATER ANTECEDENT
SFC DIABATIC HEATING -- I.E. ACROSS ERN KY...WRN WV...AND SRN OH.
LIMITED SPATIAL PHASING BETWEEN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
THE CYCLONE AND ZONE OF ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE
OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...
LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 36028626 38988350 39348188 38888056 37298031 35088023
34218146 34378251 35518234 35798318 35368443 35328560
36028626
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KFFC [211718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KFFC 211718
LSRFFC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
118 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE DECATUR 33.80N 84.27W
08/21/2013 DEKALB GA PUBLIC
SOUTH FORK OF PEACHTREE CREEK OBSERVED TO BE COMING OUT
OF ITS BANK NEAR ORION DR AND LAWRENCEVILLE HIGHWAY.
&&
$$
SNELSON
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LSRFFC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
118 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE DECATUR 33.80N 84.27W
08/21/2013 DEKALB GA PUBLIC
SOUTH FORK OF PEACHTREE CREEK OBSERVED TO BE COMING OUT
OF ITS BANK NEAR ORION DR AND LAWRENCEVILLE HIGHWAY.
&&
$$
SNELSON
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KOHX [211656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOHX 211656
LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1142 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 E CARTHAGE 36.26N 85.91W
08/21/2013 SMITH TN EMERGENCY MNGR
SMITH COUNTY EMA REPORTS FLOODING ON HWY 70 EAST OF
CARTHAGE. MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY DUE TO
HIGH WATER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1300667
$$
TB12
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LSROHX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1142 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 E CARTHAGE 36.26N 85.91W
08/21/2013 SMITH TN EMERGENCY MNGR
SMITH COUNTY EMA REPORTS FLOODING ON HWY 70 EAST OF
CARTHAGE. MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES IN THE COUNTY DUE TO
HIGH WATER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER OHX1300667
$$
TB12
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