KLUB [200056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 200056
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
756 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL LEVELLAND 33.58N 102.36W
03/19/2011 E1.75 INCH HOCKLEY TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100051

$$

FB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200052
SWODY1
SPC AC 200050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF W TX...

...W TX...
WARM ADVECTION WITH A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE AND CAPPING LIMITS ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0237.

...SC/ERN GA NEXT FEW HOURS...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...ONGOING STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NE.
UNTIL THAT TIME...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CORES.

...NERN KS...ERN NEB...SW IA...NWRN MO...
00Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH A
RATHER MOIST LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A RASH OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM MAINLY AFTER 06Z FROM NERN KS/SERN
NEB INTO IA AND NRN MO. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL
PRODUCTION ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

..JEWELL.. 03/20/2011

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KLUB [200048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 200048
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
748 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0746 PM HAIL LEVELLAND 33.58N 102.36W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH HOCKLEY TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100050

$$

FB

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KGSP [200045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 200045
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
845 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 PM HAIL 3 SW CARNESVILLE 34.34N 83.27W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH FRANKLIN GA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZED FALLING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MINUTES AND WAS STILL FALLING AT THE END OF THE CALL AT
839 PM.

0829 PM HAIL 4 SSE GREER 34.89N 82.20W
03/19/2011 E0.50 INCH SPARTANBURG SC NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL UP TO MARBLE SIZED FELL FOR ABOUT TWO MINUTES AT THE
GSP AIRPORT.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KLUB [200045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 200045
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 PM HAIL LEVELLAND 33.58N 102.36W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH HOCKLEY TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100049

$$

FB

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KEKA [200034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 200034
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
534 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM SNOW 4 E RUTH 40.29N 123.33W
03/18/2011 M8.0 INCH TRINITY CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM SNOW 1 ESE ZENIA 40.19N 123.46W
03/18/2011 M8.0 INCH TRINITY CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM SNOW 10 N LAYTONVILLE 39.81N 123.48W
03/18/2011 M12.0 INCH MENDOCINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CLARK

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KICT [200033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 200033
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL SALINA 38.82N 97.62W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KED

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KCAE [200021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 200021
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
820 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 2 W SALUDA 34.00N 81.81W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH SALUDA SC PUBLIC

HAIL FELL FOR 20 TO 25 MINUTES. RANGED FROM 0.75 TO
1.00 INCH IN SIZE. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND ALSO
OBSERVED 2 MILES WEST OF THE TOWN OF SALUDA ON HIGHWAY
178.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CAE1100010

$$

HAIL

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KGSP [200006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 200006
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM HAIL 6 SE CLARKESVILLE 34.55N 83.45W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH HABERSHAM GA AMATEUR RADIO

NEAR THE BORDER OF STEPHENS COUNTY

&&

$$

RWH

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KMFR [200002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 200002
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
502 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0401 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
03/19/2011 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KGJT [192333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 192333
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
533 PM MDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW RED MOUNTAIN PASS 37.88N 107.74W
03/19/2011 M73 MPH SAN JUAN CO MESONET

MEASURED AT EAGLE SNOTEL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100261

$$

DC

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KRIW [192333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 192333
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
533 PM MDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W CASPER 42.83N 106.45W
03/19/2011 M62 MPH NATRONA WY ASOS

&&

$$

AEM

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KGSP [192332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192332
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
732 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL CROSS HILL 34.30N 81.98W
03/19/2011 E1.25 INCH LAURENS SC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED LASTING FOR
AT LEAST SEVERAL MINUTES IN CROSS HILL. BASED ON RADAR
THE HAIL LIKELY LASTED TO AS LATE AS 625 PM.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KLUB [192313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 192313
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM HAIL 6 SE ANTON 33.75N 102.09W
03/19/2011 E1.75 INCH HOCKLEY TX METEOROLOGIST

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100048

$$

FB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 192309
SWODY1
SPC AC 192307

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF W TX INTO NRN
OK AND KS...

...THIS IS AN OUTLOOK AMENDMENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ARE NOT BEING ADDRESSED WITH
THIS AMENDMENT...

...W TX INTO OK/KS...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX WITH
MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. HAVE UPDATED HAIL PROBABILITIES TO MATCH
WITH LOCATION OF CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND ONGOING
CONVECTION.

REMAINING PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK FARTHER N INTO OK AND KS WILL
LIKELY BE REMOVED BY 01Z.

..SPC.. 03/19/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/

BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WHILE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO/NM MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

...OK/KS/MO...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY
INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING AS ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MORNING RAOBS SHOWS STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MO
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST
IS IN QUESTION AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN OK AND IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SO FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN IN A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

...OK/TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST OK AND WEST TX. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INITIATION
APPEARS TO BE IN OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS DECREASING
FARTHER SOUTH. IF A STORM CAN FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WOULD BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. EVEN A TORNADO COULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST OK WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR.

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KLUB [192309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 192309
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM HAIL 1 SE ANTON 33.80N 102.15W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH HOCKLEY TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100047

$$

FB

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KCYS [192305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 192305
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
504 PM MDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM HIGH SUST WINDS LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
03/19/2011 M43 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KGSP [192300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192300
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM TSTM WND DMG CROSS HILL 34.30N 81.98W
03/19/2011 LAURENS SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN FROM WATERLOO TO CROSS HILL

&&

$$

LG

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KGSP [192255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192255
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG WATERLOO 34.35N 82.06W
03/19/2011 LAURENS SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREES DOWN IN THE ROAD IN THE VICINITY OF WATERLOO.
SEVERAL VEHICULAR ACCIDENTS.

0553 PM HAIL WATERLOO 34.35N 82.06W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH LAURENS SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND IN WATERLOO TWO INCHES DEEP.
LARGEST HAIL AT THEIR LOCATION WAS DIME SIZED. BASED ON
RADAR THE HAIL MAY HAVE LASTED AROUND 20 MINUTES ENDING
BETWEEN 610 AND 615 PM.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 52

WWUS20 KWNS 192247
SEL2
SPC WW 192247
TXZ000-200400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 52
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WITHIN A SLY FLOW OF MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR. MLCAPES LOCALLY TO
1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR
DO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSITY AND
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22025.

...HALES

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KGSP [192246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192246
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL GRAY COURT 34.61N 82.11W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH LAURENS SC PUBLIC

&&

$$

RWH

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KGSP [192246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192246
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL GRAY COURT 34.61N 82.11W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH LAURENS SC PUBLIC

&&

$$

RWH

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KGSP [192245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192245
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG PIEDMONT 34.71N 82.46W
03/19/2011 GREENVILLE SC PUBLIC

LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN

&&

$$

RWH

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KGSP [192243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192243
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
643 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL GREENVILLE 34.84N 82.37W
03/19/2011 M0.75 INCH GREENVILLE SC AMATEUR RADIO

PENNY HAIL COVERED GROUND AND ROAD

&&

$$

RWH

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KGSP [192241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192241
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM HAIL MARIETTA 35.03N 82.49W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH GREENVILLE SC PUBLIC

HWY 186 NEAR GREENVILLE COUNTY LINE

&&

$$

RWH

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KGSP [192155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192155
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 SW LAURENS 34.43N 82.11W
03/19/2011 LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO CEDAR TREES JUST UPROOTED. AS I ASKED FOR MORE
INFORMATION WE WERE CUT OFF.

0547 PM HAIL 7 SW LAURENS 34.43N 82.11W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

THE SPOTTER WITH THE TWO CEDAR TREES UPROOTED ALSO
REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL. THIS IS IN THE EKOM
COMMUNITY.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KDDC [192144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192144
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
444 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0438 PM HAIL 3 E KINSLEY 37.93N 99.35W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH EDWARDS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

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KDDC [192142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192142
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0437 PM HAIL 6 WNW ASH VALLEY 38.33N 99.30W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KGSP [192138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192138
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM HAIL 3 SW GRAY COURT 34.58N 82.15W
03/19/2011 E1.75 INCH LAURENS SC TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS COVERING THE GROUND.
HAD WIND MEASURING EQUIPMENT WHICH RECORDED A 57 MPH
GUST. NO REPORT OF WIND DAMAGE AS OF YET.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KCYS [192133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 192133
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
333 PM MDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
03/19/2011 M58 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KGSP [192129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192129
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HAIL 3 NE HICKORY TAVERN 34.55N 82.15W
03/19/2011 E0.50 INCH LAURENS SC AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL ALMOST COVERING THE GROUND AT FAIRVIEW AND ROUTE 101

&&

$$

LG

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KSGF [192127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 192127
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
427 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 4 N FAIR GROVE 37.44N 93.15W
03/19/2011 M0.88 INCH DALLAS MO TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR
THE GREEN/DALLAS COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

KURTZ

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KGSP [192116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192116
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM HAIL 6 SSE GREENVILLE 34.76N 82.33W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH GREENVILLE SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

GANTT FIRE DEPARTMENT STATION 2 EXPERIENCED HAIL COVERING
THE GROUND WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS A QUARTER WHICH LASTED
AT LEAST 5 MINUTES. HAD STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL BUT
ONLY SMALL BRANCHES WERE BROKEN.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 51

WWUS20 KWNS 192103
SEL1
SPC WW 192103
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-192100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
403 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 51 ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA

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KHNX [192056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 192056
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
156 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW YOSEMITE VALLEY 37.74N 119.60W
03/19/2011 M6.5 INCH MARIPOSA CA CO-OP OBSERVER

REPORTED ON VALLEY FLOOR BY CO-OP PARK RANGERS.

&&

$$

BPET

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KEKA [192048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 192048
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
148 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM SNOW 1 W ORLEANS 41.30N 123.54W
03/19/2011 U0.0 INCH HUMBOLDT CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT 400 FEET NEAR KLAMATH RIVER SINCE 5 AM INTMT LIGHT
SNOW WITH DECK COMPLETELY COVERED.

1030 AM SNOW 4 W ETTERSBURG 40.12N 124.07W
03/19/2011 M1.0 INCH HUMBOLDT CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT 1700 FEET, SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS,
HAIL AND SLEET OCCURING FREQUENTLY OVERNIGHT.

1030 AM HAIL 5 NNW GUALALA 38.84N 123.57W
03/19/2011 M0.25 INCH MENDOCINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT 1000 FEET ON MOUNTAINS ABOVE GUALALA...HAD BB SIZE
HAIL.

1030 AM SNOW 12 E RUTH 40.28N 123.17W
03/19/2011 M15.0 INCH TRINITY CA PUBLIC

AT ELEVATION 4294 FEET ON SOUTH FORK MOUNTAIN ACTUALLY
ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF MAD RIVER WHERE S FORK MTN RD
INTERSECTS WITH HWY 36...SINCE 7 PM PREVIOUS NIGHT...15
INCHES WITH 36 INCHES ON GROUND. TEMPERATURE 29 DEGREES.
INFO FROM SPOTTER T11.

1141 AM SNOW 4 S HONEYDEW 40.17N 124.12W
03/19/2011 M1.0 INCH HUMBOLDT CA PUBLIC

SNOWING FOR ABOUT 1 HOURS AT 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURE 34
DEGREES.

&&

$$

ASHFORD

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KGSP [192048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192048
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL SIMPSONVILLE 34.73N 82.26W
03/19/2011 E0.50 INCH GREENVILLE SC TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WAS 1 INCH DEEP ON THE GROUND

&&

$$

LG

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KCYS [192037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 192037
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
237 PM MDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0223 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
03/19/2011 M59 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KGSP [192037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192037
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 3 SW MAULDIN 34.75N 82.34W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH GREENVILLE SC PUBLIC

&&

$$

LG

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KGSP [192035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192035
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL SIMPSONVILLE 34.73N 82.26W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH GREENVILLE SC TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LG

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KGSP [192026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192026
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 3 SW GREENVILLE 34.81N 82.41W
03/19/2011 E0.50 INCH GREENVILLE SC AMATEUR RADIO

MARBLE SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT PLEASANTBURG AND
MAULDIN ROAD

&&

$$

LG

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KGSP [192023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192023
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0403 PM HAIL MAULDIN 34.79N 82.30W
03/19/2011 E0.50 INCH GREENVILLE SC TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

LG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0237

ACUS11 KWNS 192020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192020
TXZ000-NMZ000-192145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX...EXTREME SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192020Z - 192145Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN TX AND FAR SERN NM...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A WW ATTM.

STRONG HEATING AND AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO YIELD A
NORTH-SOUTH ZONE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY EAST OF A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOB TO THE UNITED STATES/MEXICO BORDER 40 MILES
WSW OF 6R6...AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. WITHIN THIS REGION...RECENT RUC
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...HIGHEST
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEAST
OF HOB /WHERE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS NOTED/.

RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WRN TX /INCLUDING THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS/...WHERE THE STRONG INSOLATION HAS RESULTED IN 0-3-KM
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
CONVECTION COULD BE STEERED INTO THE GREATER/DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...WHERE IT COULD DEEPEN AND BECOME SEVERE. FARTHER
NORTH...INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN THIS REGION. THIS THREAT FOR CONVECTION COULD
EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO NWRN TX AS THE FRONT RETREATS NWD IN
RESPONSE TO DISSIPATING LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35 TO 45 KT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED /POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR/ STORM
STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE RETREATING FRONT...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THUS...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..COHEN.. 03/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34300028 32870026 32280089 31300149 30610169 30310230
30630273 31160286 32450327 33570339 34420301 34690171
34300028

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KTOP [192012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KTOP 192012
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1031 AM HAIL 6 W BURLINGTON 38.19N 95.85W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH COFFEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1046 AM HAIL BETO JUNCTION 38.43N 95.73W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH COFFEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

OFFICERS RESPONDING TO ACCIDENTS ON I-35 REPORTED NICKEL
SIZED HAIL COVERED THE HIGHWAY MAKING IT SLICK.

1047 AM HAIL 2 SW BETO JUNCTION 38.41N 95.75W
03/19/2011 E1.25 INCH COFFEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCIDENTS REPORTED ALONG I-35.

1100 AM HAIL 3 S MELVERN 38.46N 95.63W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1103 AM HAIL 4 SSW QUENEMO 38.53N 95.56W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1122 AM HAIL 3 S CENTROPOLIS 38.67N 95.35W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH FRANKLIN KS PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

1125 AM HAIL SSE CENTROPOLIS 38.72N 95.35W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH FRANKLIN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1140 AM HAIL S BALDWIN CITY 38.78N 95.19W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH DOUGLAS KS PUBLIC

1151 AM HAIL ALTA VISTA 38.86N 96.49W
03/19/2011 E0.50 INCH WABAUNSEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

OFFICER REPORTS PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL.

1152 AM HAIL 2 SW EUDORA 38.93N 95.12W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH DOUGLAS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1154 AM HAIL 6 N COUNCIL GROVE 38.74N 96.48W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH MORRIS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1235 PM HAIL SE ESKRIDGE 38.86N 96.10W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0113 PM HAIL 3 WNW LAWRENCE 38.98N 95.31W
03/19/2011 M0.75 INCH DOUGLAS KS NWS EMPLOYEE

0157 PM HAIL 4 NE WILLIAMSBURG 38.53N 95.42W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH FRANKLIN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

RANGED FROM PEA TO PENNY SIZE THAT COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

$$

WOLTERS

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KICT [192011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KICT 192011
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 AM HAIL COFFEYVILLE 37.04N 95.63W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0838 AM HAIL COFFEYVILLE 37.04N 95.63W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0851 AM HAIL 3 E COFFEYVILLE 37.04N 95.58W
03/19/2011 E2.00 INCH MONTGOMERY KS BROADCAST MEDIA

0919 AM HAIL AUGUSTA 37.69N 96.98W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

0935 AM HAIL EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

0954 AM HAIL 2 W ALTAMONT 37.19N 95.33W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH LABETTE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1001 AM HAIL 2 N EDNA 37.09N 95.36W
03/19/2011 E1.75 INCH LABETTE KS PUBLIC

FAMILY MEMBER OF NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS GOLFBALL SIZED
RELAYED BY NWS SPRINGFIELD.

1003 AM HAIL 2 W ALTAMONT 37.19N 95.33W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH LABETTE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1009 AM HAIL ALTAMONT 37.19N 95.29W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH LABETTE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1010 AM HAIL 2 W ALTAMONT 37.19N 95.33W
03/19/2011 E1.25 INCH LABETTE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1017 AM HAIL 5 N ALTAMONT 37.26N 95.29W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH LABETTE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1028 AM HAIL WSW CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.50W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1036 AM HAIL 3 S COTTONWOOD FALLS 38.32N 96.54W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH CHASE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1037 AM HAIL N COTTONWOOD FALLS 38.37N 96.54W
03/19/2011 E1.50 INCH CHASE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM HAIL COTTONWOOD FALLS 38.37N 96.54W
03/19/2011 E1.75 INCH CHASE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1044 AM HAIL 3 SE PARSONS 37.31N 95.23W
03/19/2011 E1.75 INCH LABETTE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1051 AM HAIL MOLINE 37.36N 96.30W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH ELK KS AMATEUR RADIO

1233 PM HAIL 1 W COFFEYVILLE 37.04N 95.65W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH MONTGOMERY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0147 PM HAIL PARSONS 37.34N 95.27W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH LABETTE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CDJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0236

ACUS11 KWNS 192005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192005
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-192130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN KS...WRN MO...EXTREME NWRN
AR...MOST OF OK EXCEPT SERN PORTIONS AND PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...

VALID 192005Z - 192130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51
CONTINUES.

SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST IN AND NEAR EXISTING WW AREA OVER PORTIONS
OK...KS AND SWRN MO BEYOND SCHEDULED 21Z EXPIRATION TIME...THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE THEN.

SERIES OF SFC MESOANALYSES INDICATE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL/ERN OK...EXCEPT FOR ONE SEGMENT DESCRIBED
BELOW...AMIDST BLEND OF MIXING/ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. AS OF
1930Z...CONVENTIONAL AND MESONET DATA INDICATE WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
OR INFLECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN
OUN-TUL...COMPELLING SMALL SEWD MOVEMENT OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL OK
AND MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SUPPORT OF LINEAR TSTM BAND
THAT EXTENDS INTO LAYER OF ELEVATED INFLOW ACROSS SERN KS. WITH
MLCINH NEARLY GONE IN CENTRAL/SRN OK WARM SECTOR...WEAK FRONTAL LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DISCRETELY BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT
ALONG BOUNDARY S OF EXISTING WW. FARTHER N...FAVORABLE ELEVATED
MUCAPE OF 800-1300 J/KG IS ESTIMATED OVER SRN KS AND NRN OK BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT IN
SUPPORT OF ADDITIONAL HAIL POTENTIAL FROM CONVECTION IN THAT REGION.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS WRN OK NW OF
FRONT...EARLIER DENSE LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP WITH
POCKETS OF SFC HEATING LEADING TO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THOUGH MLCINH REMAINS PROHIBITIVE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
ATTM...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
WHICH THEN WOULD MOVE NEWD TO ENEWD TOWARD WRN OK. LIMITING FACTORS
WILL INCLUDE LARGER INITIAL STATIC STABILITY NEAR SFC...LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT ALOFT BEHIND EJECTING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF
SFC BOUNDARIES NW OF FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 35309978 37819979 38529890 39049674 38439452 37759382
36479402 35939495 35479536 34879677 34449940 35309978

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 192004
SWODY1
SPC AC 192002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SRN PLAINS
TO WRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR...

...SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED EWD ACROSS MORE OF ERN OK/NWRN
AR AND SWRN MO...WITH A SECOND EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
MORE OF SRN AND CENTRAL KS...

...TX PANHANDLE/NERN OK/ERN KS/WRN MO...
GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WITH TSTMS HAVING DEVELOPED SINCE
18Z PER RADAR IMAGERY FROM NE OF OKC INVOF CQB AND THEN NEWD TO
NOWATA COUNTY OK TO SERN KS...EWD EXPANSION OF SLIGHT IS NEEDED.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
INTO WRN/SWRN MO. THE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL OK
IS LIKELY SHUNTING THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...WHILE
FARTHER E...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THIS FRONT HAS MADE
GREATEST NEWD MOVEMENT. THESE TRENDS /BOTH IN RADAR IMAGERY AND
THERMODYNAMICS/ SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER
E THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA/ATTENDANT PROBABILITIES INTO A LITTLE MORE OF ERN OK...NWRN
AR...AND SWRN MO.

...NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL OK INTO PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL KS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING ENEWD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE ONE AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS WAS CENTERED OVER WRN KS ATTENDANT TO THIS MIDLEVEL FEATURE.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A PERSISTENT SECOND AREA OF TSTMS
MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH ACTIVITY ALSO LOCATED INTO
NWRN-NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED WELL NORTH OF THE
PRIMARY WARM FRONT WHICH IS BISECTING OK SW-NE...AND NNE OF A SECOND
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM CENTRAL TO NWRN OK. ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA N OF THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
AND HAIL PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY.

..PETERS.. 03/19/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/

BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WHILE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO/NM MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

...OK/KS/MO...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY
INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING AS ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MORNING RAOBS SHOWS STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MO
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST
IS IN QUESTION AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN OK AND IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SO FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN IN A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

...OK/TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST OK AND WEST TX. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INITIATION
APPEARS TO BE IN OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS DECREASING
FARTHER SOUTH. IF A STORM CAN FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WOULD BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. EVEN A TORNADO COULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST OK WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR.

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KGSP [192003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 192003
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0332 PM HAIL 4 SW TRAVELERS REST 34.93N 82.49W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH GREENVILLE SC CO-OP OBSERVER

QUITE A BIT OF MARBLE SIZED HAIL FELL IN A TWO TO THREE
MINUTE PERIOD WITH A FEW PIECES OF HAIL JUST UNDER NICKEL
SIZED. VERY LITTLE WIND.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KHNX [192000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 192000
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
100 PM PDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1259 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 E HUNTINGTON LAKE 37.23N 119.17W
03/19/2011 M12.0 INCH FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

12 INCHES SNOW AT TOP AND 9 INCHES AT BOTTOM OF CHINA
PEAK. REPORTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

$$

BPET

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KOUN [191957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 191957
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 1 WSW ENID 36.40N 97.91W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH GARFIELD OK EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

AG

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 51

WWUS20 KWNS 191444
SEL1
SPC WW 191444
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-192100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CO/NM APPROACHES. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...HART

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KHNX [191439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 191439
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
738 AM PDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE MARIPOSA 37.54N 119.93W
03/19/2011 M5.0 INCH MARIPOSA CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

SNOW ACCUMULATION IN MIDPINES...ELEVATION 2400 FEET.

&&

$$

KDUR

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KTSA [191436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 191436
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
935 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0933 AM HAIL TERLTON 36.19N 96.49W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH PAWNEE OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

JDS

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KHNX [191433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 191433
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
733 AM PDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 AM HEAVY SNOW HETCH HETCHY 37.95N 119.79W
03/19/2011 M12.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

$$

KDUR

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KICT [191427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 191427
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
927 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0851 AM HAIL 3 E COFFEYVILLE 37.04N 95.58W
03/19/2011 E2.00 INCH MONTGOMERY KS BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

VJP

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KICT [191426]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 191426
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
925 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM HAIL AUGUSTA 37.69N 96.98W
03/19/2011 E0.75 INCH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

CDJ

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KICT [191425]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 191425
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
925 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM HAIL COFFEYVILLE 37.04N 95.63W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

CDJ

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KEKA [191348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 191348
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
648 AM PDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 AM SNOW 1 SW ORLEANS 41.29N 123.54W
03/19/2011 E0.3 INCH HUMBOLDT CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. TEMP 33.6 DEGREES.

&&

$$

GARCIA

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KICT [191322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 191322
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
821 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 AM HAIL COFFEYVILLE 37.04N 95.63W
03/19/2011 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

VJP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191241
SWODY1
SPC AC 191239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES
ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST
REDEVELOPING SLIGHTLY WWD AS A NEW VORTICITY CENTER ROTATES SWD NEAR
45N/133W. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL CA...AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS
IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING
FROM ERN AZ SEWD INTO NRN MEX. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS NM AND SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NC ACROSS NRN AL AND
SRN AR INTO SWRN TX. THE WRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER.

...TX PANHANDLE ENEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND ERN KS...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...AND OVER NERN OK/SERN KS AND
EXTREME SWRN MO. THESE STORMS ARE SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL JET
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE WRN CLUSTER OF STORMS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO NM/NRN MEXICO...AND THIS MAY BE
ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER NM AND PARTS OF WRN TX.

REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN
INVERSION BASED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...COINCIDENT WITH THE NRN
EDGE OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE BLENDED TPW DATA THAT HAS BEEN
SPREADING NWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO DEVELOP. VEERING WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
STORM LAYER ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONGER CELLS TO EXHIBIT MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IF STORMS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ARE ABLE TO BECOME NEAR SURFACE-BASED AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD.

ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MAINLY SMALL HAIL.

...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL/SERN NM AND WRN TX...
A DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD AND DRY AIR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM GRADUALLY MIXES
EWD TODAY. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH EXISTING STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOSCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...WITH UPSTREAM NM/NRN MEXICO SHORT
WAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY PROVIDING WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER THE AREA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT INDICATING A
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT FORM...WITH
STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..WEISS/GRAMS.. 03/19/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0234

ACUS11 KWNS 191231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191230
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-191330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK AND PARTS OF SRN
KS

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 191230Z - 191330Z

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. WW NOT EXPECTED
ATTM...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME THIS MORNING.

MORNING RAOBS FROM THE SRN PLAINS REGION THIS AM REVEAL STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE THAN FORECAST BY THE
MODELS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ADVANCING ACROSS NM AHEAD OF AN UPPER
WAVE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
AND VICINITY -- AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE INSTABILITY.

WHILE SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...STRONGER FLOW ABOVE 400 MB -- JUST ABOVE THE MIDDLE OF
THE POTENTIAL CLOUD-BEARING LAYER -- APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING CELLS. THEREFORE...THREAT FOR HAIL WITH
LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GREATER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.
WHILE WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT...MORNING OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING.

..GOSS.. 03/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35999796 34730055 34960222 35940256 36460237 37469996
37289793 35999796

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0233

ACUS11 KWNS 191031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191030
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-191300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191030Z - 191300Z

ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
-- OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. WW NOT EXPECTED AS THREAT FOR
SEVERE-SIZED HAIL APPEARS LIMITED/LOCAL.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS NERN OK AND NWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE KS
BORDER...AS 35 TO 40KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF OK. EVENING /05Z/ LMN /LAMONT OK/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG CAPE ABOVE AN INVERSION NEAR
H8...AND THIS DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS OF A SWATH OF 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/WEAK ROTATION...AS EVIDENT IN A FEW STRONGER
CELLS ATTM. GIVEN THIS...THREAT FOR HAIL IS LIKELY -- AND MAY
PERHAPS REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS.

..GOSS.. 03/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36579337 36459364 35869466 36279649 36809735 37409689
37689381 37009346 36579337

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190906
SWOD48
SPC AC 190906

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

CORRECTED SEEM TO SEEMS MID PARAGRAPH

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUE/WED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

AS A VIGOROUS UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TURNS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING CENTRAL CANADIAN
RIDGE...STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD
THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP CYCLONE MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH CONCERN STILL EXISTS OVER THE LIKELY
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH MAY
SUPPRESS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...A REGIONAL AREA OF SEVERE STORMS
STILL SEEMS PROBABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS STRONGER FORCING TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH/DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD
GROWS CONSIDERABLY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN...AND THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR.

..KERR.. 03/19/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190858
SWOD48
SPC AC 190858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUE/WED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

AS A VIGOROUS UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TURNS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING CENTRAL CANADIAN
RIDGE...STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD
THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP CYCLONE MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH CONCERN STILL EXISTS OVER THE LIKELY
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH MAY
SUPPRESS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...A REGIONAL AREA OF SEVERE STORMS
STILL SEEM PROBABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS STRONGER FORCING TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH/DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD
GROWS CONSIDERABLY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN...AND THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR.

..KERR.. 03/19/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190730
SWODY3
SPC AC 190729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE MON AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KANSAS INTO S CNTRL NEBRASKA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLES BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AN EVOLVING BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH...MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE MONDAY EVENING. UNTIL THEN...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PROMINENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER NEAR THE MEXICAN GULF COAST. DOWNSTREAM...AN
INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE LARGER-SCALE WESTERN
TROUGH...AND ANOTHER STRONGER IMPULSE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON
BAY...APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPRESS THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE... ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

IN LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE IT STALLS AND BEGINS TO RETREAT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ...AHEAD
OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET /IN EXCESS OF 50 KT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY
LATE MONDAY EVENING/...RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO IMPEDE GULF MOISTURE RETURN. SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY BE
CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...PERHAPS NEAR THE DRY LINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS...SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE DRY LINE...FROM THE FRONTAL
INTERSECTION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY NOT REACH THE REGION UNTIL MUCH LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH LOCALIZED
WEAKENING OF INHIBITION SEEMS TO OFFER SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
WHERE DRY LINE CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED ...ALONG AND NORTH OF A
BROADLY CYCLONIC 500 MB JET AXIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AROUND 00Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ONCE STORMS
FORM...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS THAT MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION. ONCE THIS OCCURS... MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT... NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

...OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
MODERATELY STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40+
KT COUPLED WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT
RISK FOR STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 03/19/2011

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KLUB [190545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 190545
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1245 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1239 AM HAIL PADUCAH 34.01N 100.30W
03/19/2011 E0.88 INCH COTTLE TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1100046

$$

MCONDER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190532
SWODY2
SPC AC 190531

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LIKELY REACHING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY...ARE PROGGED TO ACCELERATE
EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MAY
SUPPRESS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
APPEAR LIKELY TO BUILD QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...AS A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY
TURNS INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MODEST SURFACE WAVE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...INFLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN INHIBITED BY
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A HIGH CENTER SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST...WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST. HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO NARROW CORRIDORS ALONG REMNANTS OF
A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS ALONG A DRY LINE INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL WAVE...FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO IOWA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS
THESE AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO BE SUPPRESSED BY CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND GENERALLY
SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE RETREATING
FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY... THEN EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
MIXED LAYER CAPE PROBABLY WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING NEAR
THE DRY LINE...LIKELY TO EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR TO
THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER IOWA AS WELL. BEFORE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
BEGINS TO RISE...LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR THE LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE LARGE AND CLOCKWISE
CURVED ALONG A 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...BENEATH 50-70 KT
WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL FORM WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER...OR IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW. REGARDLESS...THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY
SPREAD EASTWARD ABOVE A RAIN-COOLED AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY
EVENING.

OTHERWISE...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MAINLY WHERE SURFACE
HEATING MAXIMIZES AND LOCALLY WEAKENS INHIBITION. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW LONG STORMS WILL SURVIVE AS THEY PROPAGATE EAST OF THE DRY
LINE...WHICH MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 03/19/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190529
SWODY1
SPC AC 190527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD ALONG WRN U.S. COAST. SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE
AND INTO THE WRN STATES AND CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL U.S. 12Z SATURDAY WILL SHIFT EWD REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES WHILE WRN EXTENSION
OF THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH NRN TX AND OK.
DRYLINE WILL SETUP ALONG THE TX-NEW MEXICO BORDER.

...NRN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS...

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL
LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OK INTO SRN
KS EARLY SATURDAY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND NERN
OK EVENTUALLY REACHING MO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LLJ VEERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE THAT WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE SWRN U.S.
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. INFLUX OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF
RETREATING BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. EFFECTIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF
ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15%.

...WRN TX...

SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE MODIFIED CP AIR
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
DRYLINE. LOW CLOUDS MAY DELAY DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION.
HOWEVER....AS CLOUDS MIX OUT...DIABATIC WARMING AND DEEP MIXING IN
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EJECTING WEAK IMPULSE AND MODEST
DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
PRESENCE OF CAP AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 1000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

..DIAL/HURLBUT.. 03/19/2011

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KMAF [190441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMAF 190441
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1140 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM HAIL 19 ENE BIG SPRING 32.35N 101.18W
03/18/2011 E1.75 INCH MITCHELL TX BROADCAST MEDIA

ON HOWARD/MITCHELL COUNTY LINE.

0755 PM HAIL GARDEN CITY 31.87N 101.48W
03/18/2011 E0.75 INCH GLASSCOCK TX PUBLIC

0955 PM FLASH FLOOD BIG SPRING 32.25N 101.48W
03/18/2011 HOWARD TX BROADCAST MEDIA

CARS UNDERWATER. SEVERAL STREETS CLOSED. WEST SIDE OF
TOWN WITHOUT POWER.

1108 PM FLASH FLOOD BIG SPRING 32.25N 101.48W
03/18/2011 HOWARD TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL STREETS IN BIG SPRING FLOODED AND BARRICADED DUE
TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AKL

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KMAF [190438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 190438
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HAIL GARDEN CITY 31.87N 101.48W
03/18/2011 E0.75 INCH GLASSCOCK TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

AKL

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KMAF [190434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 190434
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1134 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1108 PM FLASH FLOOD BIG SPRING 32.25N 101.48W
03/18/2011 HOWARD TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL STREETS IN BIG SPRING FLOODED AND BARRICADED DUE
TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AKL

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KREV [190401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 190401
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
901 PM PDT FRI MAR 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HEAVY SNOW NW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.94N 119.99W
03/18/2011 M9.0 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SINCE 4PM THIS AFTERNOON AT 6300 FEET.

&&

$$

BRONG

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