Saturday, April 10, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110030
SWODY1
SPC AC 110028

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY NONDESCRIPT FLOW FIELD ALOFT TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FORECAST TO LINGER FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY.

WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY PERSIST OVER SWRN FL AND THE KEYS
THIS EVENING...A SLOW WANE IN ONSHORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...ASIDE FROM A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE INVOF THE TX BIG
BEND OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS OVER THE NWRN CA VICINITY...APPRECIABLE
LIGHTNING IS NOT EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 04/11/2010

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KKEY [102355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 102355
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
754 PM EDT SAT APR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW EAST CAPE SABLE 25.08N 81.10W
04/10/2010 M39 MPH GMZ031 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WAS MEASURED AT
THE STATION AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.


&&

$$

MPARKE

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KSEW [102221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 102221
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
321 PM PDT SAT APR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW ENUMCLAW 47.23N 122.06W
04/10/2010 M72 MPH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

EAST WINDS SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 72 MPH.


&&

$$

DDAMICO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101940
SWODY1
SPC AC 101938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE GENERAL TSTM LINE HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO REFLECT ONGOING MCS OVER
THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
DAY ONE FORECAST.

..MEAD.. 04/10/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010/

SURPRISINGLY ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOU ARA ATTM
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF MID/UPR LEVEL SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW CROSSING S TX.

TSTM THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD VICINITY UPR TX/SWRN LA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER OFFSHORE WHERE
INSTABILITY...WHILE STILL WEAK...SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN
ALONG THE TX/LA COAST.

WILL CONTINUE A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SRN OR/NRN CA EVEN THOUGH AVAILABLE PW/S ARE GENERALLY
UNDER .5 INCHES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PAC
COAST LATER TODAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND E OF THE SRN OR/NRN CA MTNS.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101711
SWODY2
SPC AC 101710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH THE DAY
TWO PERIOD WITH THE POLAR BRANCH DOMINATED BY AN INTENSE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ONTO
THE WEST COAST. IN THE LOWER-LATITUDES...A ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET
WILL STRETCH FROM THE CNTRL PACIFIC EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS WILL TRANSLATE EWD ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS
JET...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE
TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO BASE OF MEAN RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...WRN EXTENSION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY INITIALLY
STALLED FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL REDEVELOP NWD IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE A
LEE TROUGH OR DRYLINE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN EML IS ALREADY PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM. THIS EML
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD OWING TO PREVAILING
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SWRN U.S.
AND NRN MEXICO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...STRENGTHENING SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE EML PLUME...CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON
MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG FROM W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO CNTRL
KS.

THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
AND DECAYING SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INITIAL DIURNAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF SWRN INTO W-CNTRL TX. WITH
TIME...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER N THROUGH THE ERN
TX PNHDL WRN/NRN OK INTO KS ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE AND RETREATING WARM FRONT.

REGION WILL RESIDE TO THE N OF SUBTROPICAL JET CORE AND WITHIN
MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC
WLY FLOW FIELD AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR.
NONETHELESS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF HAIL
WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
WHERE THE STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOKS ONCE MORE SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER.

...NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...

ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 40+KT LLJ WHERE
CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS MOISTENING IS FORECAST BENEATH NRN EDGE OF EML
PLUME. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 04/10/2010

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KCLE [101621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 101621
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EDT SAT APR 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM TSTM WND DMG FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
04/07/2010 SANDUSKY OH POST OFFICE

ONE LARGE TREE DOWN.

0945 PM TSTM WND DMG FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
04/07/2010 SANDUSKY OH PUBLIC

FEW LARGE LIMBS DOWN.


&&

$$

KIELTYKA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101559
SWODY1
SPC AC 101557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SURPRISINGLY ACTIVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOU ARA ATTM
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF MID/UPR LEVEL SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW CROSSING S TX.

TSTM THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD VICINITY UPR TX/SWRN LA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER OFFSHORE WHERE
INSTABILITY...WHILE STILL WEAK...SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN
ALONG THE TX/LA COAST.

WILL CONTINUE A LOW THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SRN OR/NRN CA EVEN THOUGH AVAILABLE PW/S ARE GENERALLY
UNDER .5 INCHES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PAC
COAST LATER TODAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND E OF THE SRN OR/NRN CA MTNS.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 04/10/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101241
SWODY1
SPC AC 101240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN CA/SRN ORE...
IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY SHIFTING ACROSS
CA...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC SHOULD APPROACH THE
NRN CA COAST TOWARDS 11/00Z. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK
HEATING AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS.

...CO ROCKIES TO KS/OK...
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER HIGH
TERRAIN...ACCOMPANIED BY SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES. FARTHER SE TO
THE RATON MESA...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR PEAK HEATING...BUT
AVAILABLE BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ACROSS
KS/OK...MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
BENEATH A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THIS RELATIVELY STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE AND FORCED ASCENT
REMAINS WEAK.

...TX BIG BEND...
LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT THAT A WEAK IMPULSE
W OF BAJA CA WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE AZ/NM/NRN MEXICO BORDER BY
11/12Z. THIS SHOULD INCREASE ASCENT OVER THE TX BIG BEND TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/10/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100827
SWOD48
SPC AC 100826

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME
BEFORE EASING INTO SRN CANADA AND CLOSING OFF. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS NOT HANDLED PARTICULARLY WELL...AS TO BE EXPECTED...WITH
GFS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. IN AN OTHERWISE
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD CERTAINLY POSE A
SEVERE RISK. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENT TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR TRANSPORTING MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO TX AND POINTS NORTH. FOR THIS REASON INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE WILL LIKELY BE NEGATED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100705
SWODY3
SPC AC 100704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NRN PLAINS...

BEYOND THE DAY2 PERIOD MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE PLAINS. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE EJECTING SPEED MAX ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY ALLOWING
SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS
LATE. 00Z NAM...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL DIGGING WILL OCCUR
INTO SRN AZ. QUESTIONABLE MOVEMENT/TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD DOES
NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SFC WARM FRONT RETREATS INTO THE DAKOTAS. IT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONGER EPISODES OF LLJ. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE 5% PROBABILITIES FOR
HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION FORCING.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100543
SWODY1
SPC AC 100541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY.
MID-LEVEL-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR LIKELY...HOWEVER ...TO ACCOMPANY
AN IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES.
DOWNSTREAM...UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WHILE BROAD TROUGHING
LINGERS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN TIER
STATES...A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMANATING FROM A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER JET...ARE PROGGED TO
PROGRESS THROUGH A GENERALLY ZONAL REGIME.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...A RETREATING
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS STILL ONGOING...AND INLAND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF
WARM AND CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU
AND ROCKIES...WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN FACT...LOW MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY REACH AT LEAST THE MINIMUM 10%
THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST...THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...WEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND
LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH...AND ALONG A
WEST-EAST ZONE OF LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE PROBABLY WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...BUT RELATIVELY HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS OF STORMS MAY BECOME FOCUSED IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CASCADES/SHASTAS AND SISKIYOUS INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
DESPITE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN...SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER
CAPE MAY REACH 500-1000 J/KG NEAR THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO STORMS IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT A SOMEWHAT BETTER PROBABILITY SEEMS TO EXIST
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS KANSAS... WITHIN A ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE DAY EAST OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH
THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION...AND INTO THE VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER FARTHER SOUTH...TONIGHT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS THIS OCCURS.

...SRN FLORIDA...
WITH A FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND KEYS...THE
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/10/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100522
SWODY2
SPC AC 100521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

VERY WEAK BUT DIFFLUENT FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS TOWARD THE NRN/CNTRL CA COAST LATE. OTHERWISE...A
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH
PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER BEFORE EJECTING/WEAKENING INTO A BROAD
ZONE OF MID CONTINENT HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS CONTINUE EARLIER TRENDS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF MARGINAL GOM MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS TX
ALONG WRN FRINGE OF PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONE. WITH TIME 50S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 60F SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE DRAWN NWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...PERHAPS INTERCEPTING A WEAKENING/RETREATING WARM FRONT
ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER LATE. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE GREATLY TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG W TX DRYLINE...EXTENDING SWD INTO NRN
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
COOL BENEATH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY PEAK
HEATING WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY APPROACH 1500 J/KG WITHIN
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND LARGELY DRIVEN BY STORM SCALE PROCESSES
PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.

FARTHER NORTH INTO KS...MEAN FLOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER...AS
WILL LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP INTO THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT...THEREFORE AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2010

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