Sunday, December 11, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120456
SWODY1
SPC AC 120454

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SERN STATES AT THE START OF
DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HEIGHTS RISE/RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.

...SRN GA AND PARTS OF NRN AND EAST CENTRAL FL...
THE RISK FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ENHANCED NEAR
NRN FL COASTAL AREAS...AND WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SERN STATES
TROUGH.

....SRN CA COAST TO SWRN AZ...
A CLOSED LOW FORMING EARLY DAY 1 ALONG THE CA COAST WITHIN THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE WRN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE
SWD AND BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST AT 12Z TUESDAY...A
COUPLE OF IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN CA TO AZ. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND DESTABILIZATION/COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-22 TO
-26 C AT 500 MB/ SUGGEST A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN
CA COAST...AND POSSIBLY INLAND OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
SWRN AZ. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/HURLBUT.. 12/12/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120048
SWODY1
SPC AC 120046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...
TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA...THOUGH SPORADIC...INDICATED THE
TRANSITION FOR THE CONVECTIVE/TSTM POTENTIAL SHIFTING FROM THE FL
PENINSULA TO FARTHER N ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF
SRN/CENTRAL AL/GA IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/MODEL DATA SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE SERN STATES AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS
ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM
VICINITY OF PIE TO DAB.

MEANWHILE...FORCING FOR ASCENT/STEEPENING 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD FROM SRN AL/ADJACENT
NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES TONIGHT.
00Z TLH/JAX/ATL SOUNDINGS COMPARED WITH THE 12Z THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WAA AND MIDLEVEL COOLING SINCE
12Z. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE TSTM THREAT NWD. ALTHOUGH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL...MEAGER AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SVR
HAIL RISKS.

...OFFSHORE SRN CA...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER AND OFFSHORE CENTRAL
AND SRN CA AS THE SRN EXTENT OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
APPROACHES THIS REGION. GREATEST MIDLEVEL COOLING AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SRN CA COAST...AND
PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.

..PETERS.. 12/12/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111944
SWODY1
SPC AC 111941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z.

..BROYLES.. 12/11/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011/

...SERN STATES...
STOUT AND PERSISTENT ENE FLOW REGIME BELOW ABOUT 700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN RISKS FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS ALONG/S OF A
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NRN FL TODAY. HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS E COASTAL LOCATIONS WWD INTO CNTRL INTERIOR FL.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ENE
ACROSS THE SERN STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. MID-LVL
MOISTENING/STEEPENING H85-H5 LAPSE RATES TIED TO WAVE ASCENT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING ELEVATED CONVECTION /BASED AOA 850 MB/ FROM NRN
FL INTO PARTS OF SERN AL AND CNTRL/SRN GA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...MEAGER AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SVR HAIL RISKS.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111728
SWODY2
SPC AC 111727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ALONG THE COAST OF CA ON MONDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE COAST FROM LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN SRN GA AND NRN FL MONDAY
MORNING NEAR THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NONE OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/11/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111618
SWODY1
SPC AC 111616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...
STOUT AND PERSISTENT ENE FLOW REGIME BELOW ABOUT 700 MB WILL
MAINTAIN RISKS FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS ALONG/S OF A
FRONT SITUATED ACROSS NRN FL TODAY. HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS E COASTAL LOCATIONS WWD INTO CNTRL INTERIOR FL.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ENE
ACROSS THE SERN STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. MID-LVL
MOISTENING/STEEPENING H85-H5 LAPSE RATES TIED TO WAVE ASCENT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING ELEVATED CONVECTION /BASED AOA 850 MB/ FROM NRN
FL INTO PARTS OF SERN AL AND CNTRL/SRN GA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CLOUD
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...MEAGER AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED
BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SVR HAIL RISKS.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 12/11/2011

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KABR [111601]: Cocorahs Precipitation Summary

NWUS53 KABR 111601
LSRABR

COCORAHS PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1000 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS
THESE REPORTS ARE CONSIDERED SUPPLEMENTAL AND UNOFFICIAL
VALUES ARE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS ENDING AROUND 7 AM LOCAL TIME

.B ABR 1211 C DH07/PP/SF/SD/SW
:
:COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
:
: SNOW SNOW WATER
: PCPN FALL DEPTH EQUIV
:
SDHG10 : PIERRE 1.3 S * : 0.00 / 0.0 / T / MM
SDBR01 : ABERDEEN 1.0 NNE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 0.0 / MM
SDBF01 : GANN VALLEY 7.8 WNW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 0.0 / MM
SDBR07 : WARNER 3.4 SE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDCD08 : WATERTOWN 2.7 E * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDCD09 : WATERTOWN 1.1 NNW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDCD11 : WATERTOWN 4.1 WSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDHY02 : HIGHMORE 19.1 NNW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDLY01 : PRESHO 0.3 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDLY04 : KENNEBEC 6.2 SSE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDLY05 : PRESHO 13.8 NW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDRB04 : SISSETON 10.4 ENE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
:
.END

$$

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KMLB [111459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 111459
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW PALM CITY 27.13N 80.31W
12/11/2011 M5.08 INCH MARTIN FL COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 AM REPORTED BY COCORAHS
RAINFALL OBSERVER.


&&

$$

JRC

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KMLB [111458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 111458
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
958 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW VERO BEACH 27.61N 80.41W
12/11/2011 M3.95 INCH INDIAN RIVER FL COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 AM REPORTED BY COCORAHS
RAINFALL OBSERVER.


&&

$$

JRC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111240
SWODY1
SPC AC 111238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE UNITED STATES...WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...RESULTING IN INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THIS
REGION...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
PRECLUDE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AL/GA.

ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

..HART/GARNER.. 12/11/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110956
SWOD48
SPC AC 110955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A VIGOROUS UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY MIDWEEK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
COINCIDE WITH A SUBSTANTIVE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS
LIKELY. SOME GUIDANCE...THE 11/00Z ECMWF IN PARTICULAR... SUGGESTS
THAT A DRY LINE OR DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE COULD FORM BENEATH A
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...EVEN IN THIS CASE...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
REMAINS UNCLEAR. IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT MOISTURE RETURN
ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION... MAINTAINING STABLE NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...ALONG WITH LINGERING
DISCREPANCIES/SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL
ENSEMBLES...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. THIS UNCERTAINTY
GROWS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...AS SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR.

..KERR.. 12/11/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110753
SWODY3
SPC AC 110752

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME
...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW/UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY THE
STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN FROM A MODIFYING
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
GENERALLY ABOVE A RESIDUAL...BUT ERODING...NEAR SURFACE COOL/STABLE
LAYER. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME POTENTIALLY
WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE
60S...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL CAP NEAR SURFACE AND ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..KERR.. 12/11/2011

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KJAX [110725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 110725
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HIGH SURF ANASTASIA 29.89N 81.29W
12/10/2011 ST. JOHNS FL BROADCAST MEDIA

A SAILBOAT WAS GROUNDED ON ANASTASIA ISLAND AND CAPSIZED
IN THE SURF ABOUT 230 PM. ST JOHNS COUNTY FIRE RESCUE
RESCUED THE TWO OCCUPENTS WHO WERE THROWN INTO THE WATER.
THERE WERE NO INJURIES REPORTED AND THIS IS AN AREA WELL
KNOWN FOR STRONG TIDES AND CURRENTS DURING A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.


&&

$$

SANDRIK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE U.S. DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A DIGGING CLOSED LOW WITHIN BROADER SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BOTTOMS OUT AND GRADUALLY TURNS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA...UPPER RIDGING APPEARS
LIKELY TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM...THROUGH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
WHILE A RETURN FLOW OFF A MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO MAY COMMENCE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WITH...PERHAPS...A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY MINOR EXCEPTIONS...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION...WITH LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST...
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
AREAS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION INLAND.

...SOUTHEAST...
THE RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ENHANCED NEAR
NORTHERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS WITHIN A BAND OF
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL PROBABLY
WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

..KERR.. 12/11/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110534
SWODY1
SPC AC 110532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. VORT MAX
NOW OVER TX WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
WILL PERSIST OVER SRN FL...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

...CNTRL AND SRN FL...

RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST
IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING MAY
OCCUR OVER S FL...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL AND SRN FL SUNDAY PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

...NRN FL THROUGH SRN AL AND SRN GA...

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS FL HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY CP HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL VEER
TO SELY AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN GULF AND FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM VORT
MAX. THIS PROCESS WILL AUGMENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER FROM NRN FL INTO
SRN AL AND GA SUPPORTING OVERNIGHT DESTABILIZATION AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL/HURLBUT.. 12/11/2011

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