SWODY2
SPC AC 110534
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE U.S. DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A DIGGING CLOSED LOW WITHIN BROADER SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BOTTOMS OUT AND GRADUALLY TURNS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA...UPPER RIDGING APPEARS
LIKELY TO BUILD DOWNSTREAM...THROUGH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
WHILE A RETURN FLOW OFF A MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO MAY COMMENCE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WITH...PERHAPS...A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY MINOR EXCEPTIONS...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION...WITH LOW TO
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST...
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
AREAS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION INLAND.
...SOUTHEAST...
THE RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ENHANCED NEAR
NORTHERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS WITHIN A BAND OF
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL PROBABLY
WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
..KERR.. 12/11/2011
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