KOUN [100204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 100204
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL 2 E CLINTON 35.51N 98.94W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH CUSTER OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KMAF [100200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 100200
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
900 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 NW PECOS 31.46N 103.56W
04/09/2012 REEVES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JAMIE.GUDMESTAD

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KMAF [100155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 100155
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
855 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0832 PM HAIL HOBBS 32.73N 103.16W
04/09/2012 E2.00 INCH LEA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1 TO 2 INCH HAIL IN HOBBS

0825 PM HAIL HOBBS 32.73N 103.16W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH LEA NM PUBLIC

0850 PM HAIL 5 N HOBBS 32.81N 103.16W
04/09/2012 E2.00 INCH LEA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JAMIE.GUDMESTAD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0484

ACUS11 KWNS 100154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100154
OKZ000-TXZ000-100300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK/NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 154...

VALID 100154Z - 100300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 154 CONTINUES.

OVERALL CHARACTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH IS SLOWLY
CHANGING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO
DOMINATE VERTICAL PROCESSES. THIS EVOLUTION IS NOTED WELL IN LATEST
RADAR DATA WHERE BANDED ELEVATED TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WCNTRL-CNTRL OK. HAIL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
AS THUNDERSTORM MODE TRANSITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...LEAD SEVERE SUPERCELL IS MOVING SSEWD AT ROUGHLY
20-25KT ACROSS FORD COUNTY. IF CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT CONTINUES
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE SRN MOST COUNTIES OF THE TORNADO WATCH
BETWEEN 03-04Z. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX
AND OK.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33730001 36909998 36909817 33749827 33730001

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KTSA [100153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 100153
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
853 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM HAIL 4 NW OKESA 36.75N 96.18W
04/09/2012 E2.00 INCH OSAGE OK CO-OP OBSERVER

NINE MILES DUE WEST OF BARTLESVILLE.

&&

$$

GEW

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KTSA [100111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 100111
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
811 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 PM HAIL 9 NNW BIGHEART 36.97N 96.31W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH OSAGE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

GEW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0483

ACUS11 KWNS 100108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100107
OKZ000-KSZ000-100230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100107Z - 100230Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SERN
KS/NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR 700-750MB WITH A
WLY STORM INFLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS/TSTMS OVER SCNTRL/SERN KS. CURRENT THINKING IS
HAIL WILL BE GENERATED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...SOME OF IT
APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...WITH UPDRAFTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROOTED AT RELATIVELY HIGH
LEVELS IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT SEVERE HAIL WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37729729 37389554 36619491 36279586 37119761 37729729

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KICT [100108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 100108
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
808 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0753 PM HAIL 2 NNW BURDEN 37.34N 96.77W
04/09/2012 E1.50 INCH COWLEY KS PUBLIC

A FEW PING PONG SIZE BUT MOSTLY QUARTERS COVERING THE
GROUND

&&

$$

MWM

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KOUN [100106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 100106
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
806 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W GOODLETT 34.33N 99.93W
04/09/2012 M62 MPH HARDEMAN TX MESONET

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100102
SWODY1
SPC AC 100100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...WRN OK/NW TX...
WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOW A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SRN PLAINS AND A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN NRN AND WRN OK. AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED FROM NW TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK ALONG WHICH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
MAINTAIN AND MOVE THE CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WRN OK
AND NW TX THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX
THIS EVENING SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH
50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AS
SUPERCELLS PERSIST INTO THE MID AND LATE EVENING. HAIL GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE VIGOROUS CELLS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING SUGGESTING A LINE OF
STORMS ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE ACROSS SW OK
INTO NW TX. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE WITH A SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH TX LATE THIS EVENING POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...WEST TX/SE NM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SRN ROCKIES WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM FAR WEST TX EXTENDING NNEWD ONTO THE
CAPROCK NEAR LUBBOCK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE MIDLAND 00Z SOUNDING HAS AN SBCAPE OF
1100 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT AND 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATE NEAR 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM LUBBOCK SSWWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
INTO THE MIDLAND AREA SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

...SE KS/NE OK...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SE KS JUST AHEAD OF
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAP0R IMAGERY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
NEAR AN AXIS OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE
ELEVATED IN NATURE...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF NERN OK WHERE A 5 PERCENT HAIL
PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED.

..BROYLES.. 04/10/2012

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KMAF [100058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 100058
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
758 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 PM HAIL 2 W MENTONE 31.71N 103.63W
04/09/2012 E4.00 INCH LOVING TX TRAINED SPOTTER

3.5 TO 4 INCH HAIL AND WINDS OF 70-80 MPH

&&

$$

JAMIE.GUDMESTAD

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KICT [100057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 100057
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
757 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 PM TSTM WND DMG CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.50W
04/09/2012 CHAUTAUQUA KS EMERGENCY MNGR

A COUPLE OF POWER POLES DOWNED WITH POWER OUTAGES
REPORTED

&&

$$

MWM

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KICT [100040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 100040
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
740 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL S CEDAR VALE 37.10N 96.50W
04/09/2012 E0.75 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

$$

MWM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0482

ACUS11 KWNS 100033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100033
TXZ000-NMZ000-100130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX/SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152...153...

VALID 100033Z - 100130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
152...153...CONTINUES.

HIGH PLAINS INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE...SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND OF TX. NUMEROUS MULTI-CELL TSTMS
WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
00Z SOUNDING FROM MAF REFLECTS THIS WELL WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1100 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ABOUT 35KT. UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. HOWEVER UPDRAFTS SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY 04Z ALONG WITH AREAL COVERAGE.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 30280440 32710441 34640173 33770021 31890185 30180194
30280440

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KMAF [100028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 100028
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
728 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 PM HAIL 1 SW SEVEN RIVERS 32.58N 104.43W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

ON HWY 285

0653 PM HAIL 10 NW CARLSBAD 32.51N 104.36W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH HAIL

0654 PM HAIL 7 N ORLA 31.93N 103.91W
04/09/2012 E2.50 INCH LOVING TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TENNIS BALL HAIL AND 50 TO 60 MPH WIND ON STATE ROAD 25

0702 PM HAIL 17 NW CARLSBAD 32.58N 104.44W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH HAIL,6 MILES WEST OF BRANTLY LAKE

0725 PM HAIL 6 E ORLA 31.83N 103.81W
04/09/2012 E4.00 INCH LOVING TX TRAINED SPOTTER

3 TO 4 INCH HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 70 TO 75 MPH

&&

$$

JAMIE.GUDMESTAD

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KLUB [100016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 100016
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
716 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNE CHILDRESS 34.56N 100.18W
04/09/2012 CHILDRESS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE POWER POLES DOWN ON HWY 62 1.5MI E OF HWY 83

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200139

$$

SGE

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KAMA [100015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 100015
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
715 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM HAIL 1 S WELLINGTON 34.84N 100.21W
04/09/2012 E0.88 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200221

$$

SMB

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KOUN [100007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 100007
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL VICI 36.15N 99.30W
04/09/2012 E1.50 INCH DEWEY OK STORM CHASER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KAMA [100006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 100006
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
706 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 5 S QUAIL 34.84N 100.41W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200220

$$

SMB

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KAMA [092359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 092359
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
659 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL 7 S WELLINGTON 34.75N 100.21W
04/09/2012 E1.75 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200219

$$

EA

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KAMA [092343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 092343
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM HAIL 3 S WELLINGTON 34.82N 100.21W
04/09/2012 E0.88 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200218

$$

SMB

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KOUN [092339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092339
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 PM HAIL 5 W SHARON 36.28N 99.43W
04/09/2012 E3.50 INCH WOODWARD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 154

WWUS20 KWNS 092333
SEL4
SPC WW 092333
OKZ000-TXZ000-100700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 151...WW 152...WW 153...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL COMPLEX NOW NEAR WOODWARD OK...WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND RECENT TORNADOES...EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
SSE...INTO ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED
LARGE HAIL/OCCASIONAL TORNADO THREAT. FARTHER SSW...CONFIGURATION
OF STORMS IN SE TX PANHANDLE HAS EVOLVED IN SUCH A WAY THAT
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS NOT VERY LARGE/STRONG. AS THE MAIN
STORM...AND SMALLER CELLS AHEAD OF IT...CONTINUE SEWD...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT
/MOISTURE AND BACKED SFC FLOW/ FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AS LLJ IS EXPECTED
TO SOMEWHAT STRENGTHEN AND VEER ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30020.

...CORFIDI

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KOUN [092326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092326
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0622 PM HAIL 2 W WOODWARD 36.43N 99.43W
04/09/2012 E4.00 INCH WOODWARD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KICT [092258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 092258
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL WNW EUREKA 37.83N 96.29W
04/09/2012 E0.75 INCH GREENWOOD KS PUBLIC

OBSERVED AT THE CASEYS GENERAL STORE IN EUREKA

&&

$$

MWM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0481

ACUS11 KWNS 092238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092237
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-100000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152...

VALID 092237Z - 100000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152
CONTINUES.

MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE AND AN MCS SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS ARE MOVING SEWD AT
ROUGHLY 15KT BUT OVERALL SPEED MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE AS MCS MATURES
AND PRECIP OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE TRENDS IT
WOULD APPEAR LIKELY THAT A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SWRN OK BETWEEN 00-03Z. LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 04/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33490306 35830162 35839804 33499959 33490306

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 153

WWUS20 KWNS 092233
SEL3
SPC WW 092233
NMZ000-TXZ000-100600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
HOBBS NEW MEXICO TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DRYDEN TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 151...WW 152...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS
AND/OR SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SE NM/SW TX THROUGH
THIS EVE...POSING A THREAT FOR MAINLY SVR HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY MODEST...RELATIVELY MOIST...LOW LVL SELY FLOW BENEATH
DEEP EML. LATER THIS EVE...STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO
SMALL CLUSTERS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
WIND.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30015.

...CORFIDI

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KOUN [092232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092232
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM TORNADO 3 SSW WOODWARD 36.39N 99.41W
04/09/2012 WOODWARD OK STORM CHASER

THE TORNADO LASTED FOR LESS THAN A MINUTE AND HAS LIFTED.

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KAMA [092222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 092222
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0511 PM HAIL WHEELER 35.44N 100.28W
04/09/2012 E0.88 INCH WHEELER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200217

$$

EA

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KOUN [092221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092221
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
521 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0521 PM HAIL WOODWARD 36.43N 99.39W
04/09/2012 E4.25 INCH WOODWARD OK EMERGENCY MNGR

WINDOWS BROKEN OUT.

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KAMA [092221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 092221
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
521 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM HAIL 10 SE MCLEAN 35.13N 100.47W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THIS AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200216

$$

EA

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KAMA [092218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 092218
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
518 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM HAIL 1 S WHEELER 35.43N 100.28W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH WHEELER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200215

$$

SMB

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KJAN [092205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 092205
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM HAIL CROSSETT 33.13N 91.97W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH ASHLEY AR PUBLIC

PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

0230 AM HAIL 3 NW COLLINSTON 32.72N 91.91W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH MOREHOUSE LA PUBLIC

0235 AM HAIL WAYSIDE 33.27N 91.03W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH WASHINGTON MS EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY WASHINGTON EM

0243 AM HAIL WAYSIDE 33.27N 91.03W
04/05/2012 E1.75 INCH WASHINGTON MS PUBLIC

0305 AM HAIL ARCOLA 33.27N 90.88W
04/05/2012 E1.75 INCH WASHINGTON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE HAIL SHATTERED THE WINDSHIELD OF A VEHICLE

0445 AM HAIL HAMBURG 33.23N 91.80W
04/05/2012 E1.75 INCH ASHLEY AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

0450 AM HAIL 5 SSW WEST CROSSETT 33.08N 92.05W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH ASHLEY AR PUBLIC

0515 AM HAIL BENTON 32.83N 90.26W
04/05/2012 E0.88 INCH YAZOO MS EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE WAS ACCUMULATING ON SOME SURFACES

0515 AM HAIL BENTON 32.83N 90.26W
04/05/2012 E1.25 INCH YAZOO MS PUBLIC

0525 AM HAIL 3 SSW BASTROP 32.73N 91.92W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH MOREHOUSE LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY STORE ON OLD MONROE ROAD

0530 AM HAIL 9 NW EUDORA 33.21N 91.39W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CHICOT AR PUBLIC

REPORTED BY SOD FARM WEST OF CHICOT JUNCTION

0600 AM HAIL 5 NW WARDEN 32.60N 91.54W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH WEST CARROLL LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY A FARM TO THE WEST OF EPPS

0615 AM HAIL MAYERSVILLE 32.90N 91.04W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH ISSAQUENA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0656 AM HAIL 4 SE HOLLY BLUFF 32.78N 90.66W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH YAZOO MS POST OFFICE

HAIL CAUSED DAMAGE TO CORN FIELDS

0712 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE YAZOO CITY 32.81N 90.38W
04/05/2012 YAZOO MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON A POWERLINE AT LAKESHORE DRIVE

0715 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 E YAZOO CITY 32.86N 90.32W
04/05/2012 YAZOO MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ON MIDWAY GIN ROAD

0727 AM HAIL BENTONIA 32.65N 90.37W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH YAZOO MS EMERGENCY MNGR

0727 AM HAIL BENTON 32.83N 90.26W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH YAZOO MS EMERGENCY MNGR

0745 AM HAIL 4 N GLUCKSTADT 32.57N 90.10W
04/05/2012 E1.50 INCH MADISON MS DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LARGE HAIL FALLING ON MDOT TRAFFIC CAM AT NISSAN PARKWAY

0749 AM HAIL CANTON 32.61N 90.03W
04/05/2012 M1.75 INCH MADISON MS TRAINED SPOTTER

1 MILE NORTH OF NISSAN BLVD

0938 AM HAIL 4 W ELECTRIC MILLS 32.78N 88.52W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH KEMPER MS BROADCAST MEDIA

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN SCOOBA AND PORTERSVILLE

0958 AM HAIL BAY SPRINGS 31.98N 89.28W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH JASPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

1000 AM HAIL 5 E BAY SPRINGS 31.98N 89.20W
04/05/2012 E0.50 INCH JASPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

1007 AM HAIL 12 E BAY SPRINGS 31.98N 89.08W
04/05/2012 E0.88 INCH JASPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

1025 AM TSTM WND DMG HEIDELBERG 31.89N 88.99W
04/05/2012 JASPER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN AREA AROUND HEIDELBERG. ALSO HAD
REPORTS OF HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE.

1027 AM HAIL 5 W QUITMAN 32.04N 88.81W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CLARKE MS PUBLIC

1030 AM HAIL QUITMAN 32.04N 88.72W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH CLARKE MS BROADCAST MEDIA

1053 AM HAIL 3 WSW CRANDALL 31.95N 88.58W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH CLARKE MS BROADCAST MEDIA

DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE CARMICHAEL COMMUNITY

1110 AM HAIL SOSO 31.75N 89.28W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

1120 AM HAIL 3 N LAUREL 31.74N 89.14W
04/05/2012 E0.75 INCH JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

1120 AM HAIL 2 N LAUREL 31.73N 89.15W
04/05/2012 E1.00 INCH JONES MS PUBLIC

PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...WITH A FEW QUARTER SIZED
HAILSTONES

&&

$$

EC

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KOUN [092204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092204
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
504 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HAIL 1 N WOODWARD 36.45N 99.39W
04/09/2012 E2.50 INCH WOODWARD OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0500 PM HAIL 2 N WOODWARD 36.46N 99.39W
04/09/2012 E4.25 INCH WOODWARD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0480

ACUS11 KWNS 092203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092203
TXZ000-NMZ000-092330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 092203Z - 092330Z

STRONG SUNSHINE HAS CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA EXHIBITS STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SFC-3KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 9
C/KM ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF W TX INTO SERN NM. AS A
RESULT...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED OR IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STORM MOTIONS WOULD SUPPORT
A SLOW SEWD MOVEMENT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL IS THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

..DARROW.. 04/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 30410449 32300448 33310345 32980141 30380227 30410449

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KOUN [092158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KOUN 092158
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 PM HAIL 1 N WOODWARD 36.45N 99.39W
04/09/2012 E2.75 INCH WOODWARD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KMFR [092157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 092157
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E KLAMATH FALLS 42.23N 121.72W
04/09/2012 E35 MPH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS STEADY AT 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35.

&&

$$

GLASER

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KOUN [092157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092157
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 PM HAIL 2 N WOODWARD 36.46N 99.39W
04/09/2012 E2.50 INCH WOODWARD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KOUN [092156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092156
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
456 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 PM HAIL 1 N WOODFORD 34.34N 97.28W
04/09/2012 E2.75 INCH CARTER OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KAMA [092153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 092153
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
452 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0426 PM HAIL 6 SW MOBEETIE 35.47N 100.52W
04/09/2012 E2.00 INCH WHEELER TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200214

$$

SMB

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KOUN [092152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092152
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 6 NW WOODWARD 36.50N 99.47W
04/09/2012 E2.25 INCH WOODWARD OK PUBLIC

0452 PM HAIL 5 N WOODWARD 36.51N 99.39W
04/09/2012 E2.50 INCH WOODWARD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KEPZ [092147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 092147
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
347 PM MDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM HAIL 3 SE CHLORIDE 33.31N 107.64W
04/09/2012 E1.00 INCH SIERRA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200093

$$

GRZYWACZ

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KOUN [092146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092146
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
446 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM HAIL 10 SE SELMAN 36.70N 99.36W
04/09/2012 E2.75 INCH HARPER OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KMAF [092130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 092130
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HAIL 20 S WESTBROOK 32.07N 101.01W
04/07/2012 E1.00 INCH STERLING TX TRAINED SPOTTER

3/4 TO 1 INCH HAIL NEAR MITCHELL/HOWARD COUNTY LINE,
RELAYED TO MAF FROM SJT VIA NWS CHAT

0930 PM HAIL MCCAMEY 31.13N 102.22W
04/07/2012 E1.00 INCH UPTON TX PUBLIC

1115 PM HAIL SHEFFIELD 30.69N 101.82W
04/07/2012 E1.00 INCH PECOS TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0810 PM HAIL 25 NNE BIG LAKE 31.53N 101.30W
04/07/2012 E1.00 INCH REAGAN TX CO-OP OBSERVER

15 INCH HAIL DRIFT OF PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL SIZE

&&

$$

JAMIE.GUDMESTAD

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KOUN [092117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 092117
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
417 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0416 PM HAIL 9 SE SELMAN 36.71N 99.38W
04/09/2012 E1.75 INCH HARPER OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS NORMAN

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KICT [092110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 092110
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
410 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM HAIL N EL DORADO 37.82N 96.86W
04/09/2012 M0.75 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MWM

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KABQ [092057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 092057
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0156 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE CLAYTON 36.46N 103.14W
04/09/2012 M60 MPH UNION NM ASOS

KCAO ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201082

$$

JF

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 152

WWUS20 KWNS 092024
SEL2
SPC WW 092024
OKZ000-TXZ000-100400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 151...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WEST TX AS WEAK ASCENT SPREADS EASTWARD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

...HART

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0479

ACUS11 KWNS 092007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092006
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN TX...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 092006Z - 092100Z

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL AREAS OF INITIATION ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD WITH TIME.

SEVERAL AREAS OF INCREASING CU AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WINDS FARTHER W...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE
CONFLUENCE...NOTABLE ACROSS FAR WRN TX...WITH AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DISTINCT VORT MAX
IS IMPLIED ON WV IMAGERY AS OF 1945Z OVER ERN NM/WRN TX...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR ASCENT. ACROSS NM...ALTHOUGH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-MID
LEVEL WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MIXING HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE AREA...LEADING TO ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
NONETHELESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ASSIST IN THE
OCCASIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. FARTHER E ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWD...A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS...AND
ALTHOUGH MIXING HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES...ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK TO SELY...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. NEARLY
ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES AS REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ERODES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ALSO PROGRESSING INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY FARTHER EWD. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN
OK...WHERE MODEST NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS.

..HURLBUT.. 04/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35890117 35709907 35269860 34709870 33749968 33010075
32670160 32770233 33540345 34660327 35590211 35890117

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091959
SWODY1
SPC AC 091958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN PLAINS...

--- UPDATES ---

...SWRN KS...NWRN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE...
MOST PROBABLE SUPERCELLULAR GESTATION ZONE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE
INVOF WARM FRONT...ALONG OR E OF DRYLINE INTERSECTION...NEAR KS/OK
BORDER...N TO NNW OF GAG. LOW-LEVEL CAPE/VORTICITY/CONVERGENCE ARE
MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA BASED ON MANUAL AND AUTOMATED
MESOANALYSES...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO PRIOR TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. NRN/ERN FRINGES OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED MOISTURE
CORRESPOND TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY STRATUS THAT
HAS BEEN ERODING FROM W-E DUE TO MIXING. TORNADO POTENTIAL AND RISK
FOR SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT HAIL IS MAXIMIZED IN SOMEWHAT
NARROWER/MORE TIGHTLY FOCUSED CORRIDOR...WITHIN AND DOWNSHEAR FROM
THIS AREA...WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR LIKELY RIGHTWARD DEVIANCE OF ANY
MATURE SUPERCELL. REF SPC WW 151 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 478 FOR
NEAR-TERM FCST DETAILS.

...NERN NM TO TX SOUTH PLAINS AND MOST OF PANHANDLE...
MRGL SVR WIND RISK IS EXTENDED SOMEWHAT NWD ACROSS NM TO ACCOUNT FOR
STG/DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING NW TCC.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO MOVE EWD WHILE OFFERING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
THROUGH DEEP/WELL-MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING WITHIN AREA OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT OVER CENTRAL PANHANDLE
OF TX...MANIFEST AS GROWING MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK...MOVING EWD INTO
PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE SVR HAIL...AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL...AS WELL AS
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE ADJUSTMENT IS
JUSTIFIED ATTM TO OUTLOOK AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/09/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012/

...KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD ZONE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WITH
SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER UT/CO AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/SWRN
KS/WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING AND MOISTURE IS
INCREASING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WITH AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE FROM
SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN INTENSIFYING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KS AND NORTHWEST OK TO THE EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND IN REGION
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AS THE
STORMS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK.
HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE RISK CATEGORY FOR 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.

...WEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAD TRANSPORTED 50S DEWPOINTS
INTO MUCH OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM TODAY. THIS REGION WILL SEE
FULL SUNSHINE AND RAPID HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA FOR LATER
TODAY SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER HIGH PWAT
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0478

ACUS11 KWNS 091854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091854
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-092030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091854Z - 092030Z

SLOWLY INCREASING SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WILL LIKELY WARRANT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
INTO WRN OK...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES EXPANDING FARTHER TO
THE W ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...APPRECIABLE HEATING
CONTINUES...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES NOW INDICATING ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER THE ERN PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT WRN OK/SWRN KS
E OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK DRYLINE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID CLOUD DECK LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ALOFT NOW SPREADING INTO THIS AREA.
THUS...EXPECT THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
IMMINENT -- POSSIBLY ARISING FROM WITHIN A NEW CU FIELD NOW
DEVELOPING OVER BEAVER CO OK/CLARK CO KS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
POTENTIAL -- IS APPARENT NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CLOUDS -- AND THUS A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER --
STILL PERSISTENT ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS...THE CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL
IS FAIRLY NARROW ATTM. S OF THE FRONT...THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD
INTO WRN OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 04/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 38350079 38039945 37499831 36479753 35849845 35319906
35299923 35260066 36640060 37610066 38350079

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KMKX [091843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 091843
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
142 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM HIGH SUST WINDS MILWAUKEE TIMMERMAN AIR 43.11N 88.03W
04/09/2012 M30.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI AWOS

KMWC 29026G34KT

1155 AM HIGH SUST WINDS MONROE AIRPORT 42.62N 89.59W
04/09/2012 M33.00 MPH GREEN WI AWOS

KEFT 28029G38KT

1245 PM HIGH SUST WINDS JANESVILLE AIRPORT 42.62N 89.04W
04/09/2012 M31.00 MPH ROCK WI AWOS

KJVL 28027G33KT

&&

$$

WIMBERLEY

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KGRR [091840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 091840
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 PM EDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST EAST GRAND RAPIDS 42.94N 85.61W
04/09/2012 M44 MPH KENT MI CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091731
SWODY2
SPC AC 091729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MS DELTA REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER ROCKIES...BRACKETED BY DEEP TROUGHING OVER SERN CANADA AND U.S.
ATLC COAST...AND MEAN TROUGHING OVER NERN PAC. LARGE MID-UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW CENTERED OVER LOWER ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AREA --
IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY WWD AND SWWD ACROSS QUE WHILE
GRADUALLY FILLING. STG HEIGHT GRADIENT AND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MAINTAINED S AND SW OF THIS FEATURE...FROM DAKOTAS TO MID-ATLC
REGION. PARTS OF VORTICITY FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY
MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- NOW OVER MB/ONT BORDER REGION -- SHOULD BECOME
ENTRAINED IN THAT ENHANCED NWLY FLOW DAY-2. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS OH VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
DURING MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF PERIOD...AS PART OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT SWRN FRINGES OF THIS BELT OF NW FLOW ALOFT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
MCV TO EVOLVE FROM DAY-1/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS N AND E TX AND LA. MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGE OVER
ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS TO HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
PERIOD...AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT NEWD FROM PAC MEAN
TROUGH.

AT SFC...FRONTOGENESIS IS FCST ACROSS PORTIONS AR...SRN OK...N
TX...AND TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS POLAR RIDGING IS
REINFORCED ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS PERTURBATION. FURTHER MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO
THAT SYNOPTICALLY REINFORCED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY ALSO ARE LIKELY
FROM PRIOR/OVERNIGHT MCS THAT IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OK AND
PERHAPS N TX. ERN PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD ACROSS AR AND
ERN OK THROUGH ABOUT 11/00Z BEFORE STALLING...WHILE WRN PORTION
STALLS OVER TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. LATE-AFTERNOON DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN TX PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX TO
NRN COAHUILA...RETREATING WWD ACROSS PANHANDLE/S-PLAINS REGION
DURING EVENING.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG DRYLINE AND INVOF
FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING EVENING AS DRYLINE RETREATS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY OVER
PANHANDLE/WRN OK REGION. AREA OF RELATIVELY BACKED/SELY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ALONG AND EVEN S OF FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLE...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT CAN OCCUR.
WEAKER VERTICAL MIXING IN THAT REGIME...COMPARED TO FARTHER S ACROSS
W-CENTRAL TX...ALSO WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT. ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN PRONOUNCED
FARTHER S ACROSS W-CENTRAL/SW TX...WEAKER FLOW WILL YIELD SMALLER
HODOGRAPHS AND MORE CONDITIONAL/MRGL SUPERCELL RISK.

WITHIN BROAD 15% AREA...RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED SWATH OF SVR IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...TWO MAIN CONCERNS PRECLUDE 30% AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT-SVR SWATH FOR SUPERCELLULAR HAIL...
1. LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL UPPER PERTURBATIONS...AND EVEN MORE
IMPORTANTLY
2. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF
FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOST TIGHTLY FOCUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LIFT/VORTICITY E OF DRYLINE.

...SRN LOW PLAINS TO MS DELTA REGION...
SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR MCS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON...THEN REJUVENATE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN TX OR ARKLATEX
REGION INTO LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS MAY EVOLVE EITHER FROM DAY-1
DRYLINE OR FRONTAL CONVECTION...LATTER BEING ON FARTHER E POTENTIAL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO ARKLATEX. AHEAD OF ANY
PROSPECTIVE/PERSISTENT MCS...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC
DEW POINTS 60S F WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH STG SFC HEATING TO YIELD
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK.
WILL CONTINUE 15% TOTAL-SVR OUTLOOK OVER THIS REGION WITH MINOR
MODIFICATIONS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND RESULTANT RELATIVE SVR MAX IS RATHER LOW.

..EDWARDS.. 04/09/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091608
SWODY1
SPC AC 091607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND PARTS OF NORTH/NORTHWEST TX...

...KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD ZONE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WITH
SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER UT/CO AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/SWRN
KS/WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING AND MOISTURE IS
INCREASING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WITH AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE FROM
SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN INTENSIFYING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KS AND NORTHWEST OK TO THE EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND IN REGION
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AS THE
STORMS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK.
HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE RISK CATEGORY FOR 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.

...WEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAD TRANSPORTED 50S DEWPOINTS
INTO MUCH OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM TODAY. THIS REGION WILL SEE
FULL SUNSHINE AND RAPID HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA FOR LATER
TODAY SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER HIGH PWAT
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/09/2012

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KEWX [091302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 091302
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
802 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM TSTM WND DMG 12 SE PANDALE 30.06N 101.41W
04/08/2012 VAL VERDE TX COCORAHS

ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUST BROKE FLAG
POLE..SHREDDED FLAG AND WIND SOCK FOR EMERGENCY
HELI-PAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200230

$$

CJM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091250
SWODY1
SPC AC 091248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR WRN OK AND NW TX...

...WRN OK/NW TX AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
A DIFFUSE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN OK INTO SW KS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TX/OK WARM SECTOR N OF
I-10. ALOFT...THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR W TX NNWWD TO
THE NRN ROCKIES...THOUGH AN EMBEDDED/SUBTLE SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO
CREST THE RIDGE IN CO TODAY AND MOVE SEWD OVER OK TONIGHT. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WILL HELP CONSOLIDATE A DRYLINE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE DRYLINE/FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SUBTLE SPEED MAX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK AND NW TX OVERNIGHT.

MODIFIED FORECAST AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG AS A RESULT OF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SSEWD-MOVING
SUPERCELLS WITH NWLY EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NW OK THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH COULD APPROACH 200 M2/S2.

THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO FORM AROUND 21Z NEAR THE
DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION AND THEN SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO...AIDED BY A 30 KT
SSWLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
TONIGHT.

...FAR W TX/SE NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 HAVE SPREAD WWD INTO
FAR W TX/SE NM. THE 12Z EL PASO SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST E OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 25 KT SUGGEST SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/09/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090859
SWOD48
SPC AC 090859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE...WHICH
EXPECTED TO START ON D3/WED...WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SWRN STATES THROUGH OK AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING D4/THU
THROUGH D6/SAT. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RICH MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OK/KS ON D4/D5 AND THEN EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY ON D6. THIS COMBINED WITH ENEWD EXTENSION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THROUGH D6. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS SUCH THAT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
D4...D5...AND D6. THE STRONGEST BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON D6/SAT
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ALSO EXPANDING SWD SOME INTO N
TX AND NEWD INTO SWRN IA.

BEYOND D6...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090732
SWODY3
SPC AC 090730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT INTO D3/WED WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...AS A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST LATE D2 TRACKS NEWD
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN
STATES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL WEAKER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING
NEWD THROUGH THE NWRN U.S./NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...A
WEAKER LEAD IMPULSE...POTENTIALLY OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...SHOULD
REACH THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS
EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE PLAINS BY 12Z THU.

...SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS AND STRENGTHENING OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH. SELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN WNWWD INTO MORE OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C PER KM/. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT
WITH VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
SUGGESTS DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND
NWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL TEND
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS.

A STRENGTHENING/VEERING SLY TO SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
COUPLE OF MCS/S PROPAGATING ENEWD INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN INSTABILITY MAY TEND
TO LIMIT AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT.

...N TX/RED RIVER VALLEY TO LA...
MOISTURE RESIDING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS THESE
AREAS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT
SUPPORTS MULTICELL STORM MODE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL THREAT.

...NRN ID REGION...
THE NRN EXTENT OF A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCING E/NEWD ACROSS THE WRN
STATES ON WED WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ACROSS ERN WA AND
ID COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR AN INCREASE IN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090559
SWODY2
SPC AC 090558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF NRN/CENTRAL LA INTO
SWRN MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...LOCATED OFF THE WEST COAST...WILL AID IN SHIFTING THIS
PARENT TROUGH INLAND ON D2/TUE...WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC. THE EVOLUTION OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN EWD SHIFT OF THE ROCKIES
RIDGE INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING A NWLY FLOW REGIME
FOR ONE MORE DAY FROM THE CENTRAL TO SERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID SOUTH
WWD INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
SWD...WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR S
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FARTHER THAN THE PORTION MOVING INTO NRN TX AS
THE FORMER AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN WNWWD BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/7.5-8 C PER KM/. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING BY PEAK
HEATING WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION
AND OVERALL LACK OF FORCING ALOFT...INITIAL TSTM COVERAGE MAY TEND
TO BE LOW...BUT VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A TORNADO THREAT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTMS TUESDAY EVENING/
NIGHT ACROSS W TX INTO WRN OK AS THE LLJ VEERS...WITH A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX.

...PARTS OF LA/SWRN MS...
THE CONTINUED NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF
COAST/SERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN AN EWD
EXTENSION OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ACROSS THIS REGION.
A CLUSTER OF STORMS /POTENTIALLY A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/ SHOULD
BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/AR INTO NERN TX AND NRN LA AT 12Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /NEAR 7 C PER KM/ SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG OVER PARTS OF NRN LA/SWRN MS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
WINDS/SHEAR...30-35 KT NWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY AND GREATER STORM COVERAGE
WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW REGIME TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK...
WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...EAST THROUGH NRN TX...
A SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD RESIDE WNWWD FROM NRN LA
THROUGH NERN TO NRN TX NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AND
POTENTIALLY REINFORCED ON THE ERN EXTENT BY OUTFLOW ATTENDANT TO AN
ONGOING MCS OVER ERN OK/AR/NERN TX/NRN LA AT 12Z TUESDAY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE UP TO 1000
J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOWER
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090554
SWODY1
SPC AC 090552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.

...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012

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KEPZ [090551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 090551
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1150 PM MDT SUN APR 08 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 PM HAIL SANTA TERESA 31.85N 106.64W
04/08/2012 M1.25 INCH DONA ANA NM PUBLIC

REPORTED BY AN PERSON WHO WAS DRIVING ON THE ROAD ABOUT
A 1 2 MILE FROM THE NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200092

$$

LUNDEEN

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KEPZ [090402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 090402
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1002 PM MDT SUN APR 08 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 PM HAIL VINTON 31.96N 106.60W
04/08/2012 M1.00 INCH EL PASO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

FORWARDED FROM KFOX TV VIA NWS CHAT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200091

$$

HARDIMAN

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