SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092006
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN TX...ERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 092006Z - 092100Z
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL AREAS OF INITIATION ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD WITH TIME.
SEVERAL AREAS OF INCREASING CU AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WINDS FARTHER W...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE
CONFLUENCE...NOTABLE ACROSS FAR WRN TX...WITH AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DISTINCT VORT MAX
IS IMPLIED ON WV IMAGERY AS OF 1945Z OVER ERN NM/WRN TX...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR ASCENT. ACROSS NM...ALTHOUGH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-MID
LEVEL WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MIXING HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE AREA...LEADING TO ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
NONETHELESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ASSIST IN THE
OCCASIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. FARTHER E ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWD...A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS...AND
ALTHOUGH MIXING HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES...ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING MAY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK TO SELY...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. NEARLY
ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES AS REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ERODES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ALSO PROGRESSING INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY FARTHER EWD. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN
OK...WHERE MODEST NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS.
..HURLBUT.. 04/09/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35890117 35709907 35269860 34709870 33749968 33010075
32670160 32770233 33540345 34660327 35590211 35890117
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