Friday, September 26, 2008

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 908

WWUS20 KWNS 270303
SEL8
SPC WW 270303
MNZ000-LSZ000-270300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 908 ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MINNESOTA
LAKE SUPERIOR

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KDLH [270142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 270142
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
842 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN 15 WSW GRAND RAPIDS 47.15N 93.82W
09/26/2008 E0.00 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. REPORT FROM SUGAR
LAKE.

0540 PM HAIL 12 E WALKER 47.09N 94.32W
09/26/2008 E0.88 INCH CASS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W SILICA 47.27N 93.04W
09/26/2008 ST. LOUIS MN AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL DEAD TREE LIMBS DOWN OVER ROADWAY.

0550 PM HAIL 2 S SILICA 47.24N 93.02W
09/26/2008 M1.50 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W REMER 47.06N 94.15W
09/26/2008 CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

65 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

0610 PM HAIL 4 NW REMER 47.10N 93.97W
09/26/2008 E0.75 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF PENNY SIZE HAIL.

0615 PM HAIL COTTON 47.17N 92.47W
09/26/2008 E0.88 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0620 PM HAIL BACKUS 46.82N 94.51W
09/26/2008 E1.00 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0718 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE COHASSET 47.24N 93.59W
09/26/2008 M1.73 INCH ITASCA MN AMATEUR RADIO

PONDING OF WATER.


&&

$$

MELDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270103
SWODY1
SPC AC 270100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N CNTRL MN INTO EXTREME NW
WI...

...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

A LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NE
THROUGH N CNTRL MN. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES
WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM SW MN THROUGH ERN SD INTO NRN
NEB...SUGGESTING SWRN EXTENTION OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
CONVECTIVELY INACTIVE. THE STORMS OVER NRN MN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
SEWD NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND DUE TO
THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LIFT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING PARCELS
TO THEIR LFC. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY 40-50 KT BULK SHEAR
WITH FEW BOWING SEGMENTS INDICATED ON RADAR. ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.


...NC AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...

WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD THROUGH ERN NC INTO CNTRL AND ERN VA. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION WITHIN ZONE OF
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER WRN SC. THE UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAVE GRADUALLY WEAKENED DURING THE DAY WITH A REDUCTION IN SIZE OF
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE...BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKENING
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 09/27/2008

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KDLH [270019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 270019
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0718 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE COHASSET 47.24N 93.59W
09/26/2008 M1.73 INCH ITASCA MN AMATEUR RADIO

PONDING OF WATER.


&&

$$

MELDE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2295

ACUS11 KWNS 262344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262344
MNZ000-WIZ000-270045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 908...

VALID 262344Z - 270045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 908
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 908 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH A RISK OF SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

SUPPLEMENTAL DISCUSSION REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ACROSS NORTHERN MN. AS OF 2330Z...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
TSTMS/SUPERCELLS HAVE EXHIBITED PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION...WITH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF
AN EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE THESE TSTMS MAY REMAIN ATOP A
VERY SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS /60S F TEMPERATURES/...AMBIENT
VORTICITY/ENLARGED LOW LEVEL SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...OTHERWISE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 908 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z WITH A
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..GUYER.. 09/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

47539408 47879272 47879062 46989155 46729218 46119293
45889413 45809506 46089582 46949530

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KDLH [262321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 262321
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HAIL BACKUS 46.82N 94.51W
09/26/2008 E1.00 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MELDE

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KDLH [262319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 262319
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL COTTON 47.17N 92.47W
09/26/2008 E0.88 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MELDE

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KFGF [262317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 262317
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
617 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM HAIL 1 S HUBBARD 46.82N 95.01W
09/26/2008 E0.88 INCH HUBBARD MN PUBLIC

0558 PM HAIL 9 S AKELEY 46.87N 94.73W
09/26/2008 E0.75 INCH HUBBARD MN TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL OCCURRED FROM 558PM TO 608PM.


&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KDLH [262310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 262310
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
610 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL 4 NW REMER 47.10N 93.97W
09/26/2008 E0.75 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF PENNY SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

MELDE

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KDLH [262302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 262302
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
602 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 W REMER 47.06N 94.15W
09/26/2008 CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

65 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [262300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 262300
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
556 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W SILICA 47.27N 93.04W
09/26/2008 ST. LOUIS MN AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL DEAD TREE LIMBS DOWN OVER ROADWAY.


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [262259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 262259
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
559 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 12 E WALKER 47.09N 94.32W
09/26/2008 E0.88 INCH CASS MN LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

MELDE

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KDLH [262252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 262252
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
552 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 2 S SILICA 47.24N 93.02W
09/26/2008 M1.50 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MELDE

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KDLH [262235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 262235
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
535 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN 15 WSW GRAND RAPIDS 47.15N 93.82W
09/26/2008 E0.00 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. REPORT FROM SUGAR
LAKE.


&&

$$

MELDE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2294

ACUS11 KWNS 262215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262214
MNZ000-WIZ000-262345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 908...

VALID 262214Z - 262345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 908
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 908 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...WITH RISKS OF SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN NEAR THE
GRAND RAPIDS VICINITY /AS OF 2145Z/...WITH OTHER ATTEMPTS AT NEAR
SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH WEST OF ST CLOUD PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ALL...TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD STEADILY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN...AS LARGE FORCING FOR ASCENT/GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADS THE REGION OWING TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE DAKOTAS PER WV IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH A STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER NOTED IN UPSTREAM MORNING OBSERVED RAOBS MAKES THE SOUTH
EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR A SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING WATCH. AS SUCH...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WW 908 EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D DERIVED DATA
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS WITH A
PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER.. 09/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

48119486 48509297 47939031 46819201 45929273 45349333
45069439 45259544 45859617 47009553

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KAKQ [262210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 262210
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
610 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W WAKEFIELD 36.97N 77.02W
09/26/2008 SUSSEX VA NWS EMPLOYEE

6 INCHES AND MORE OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS LARGE PORTION
OF RTE 615 FROM SWOLLEN CREEK


&&

$$

JFOSTER

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KAKQ [262050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 262050
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
450 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE BURROWSVILLE 37.24N 77.06W
09/26/2008 PRINCE GEORGE VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OF UNSPECIFIED DEPTH FLOWING OVER BRANDON RD IN FAR
EASTERN PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY NORTH OF RT 10. ROAD IN
PROCESS OF CLOSURE.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KAKQ [262030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 262030
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 N WAKEFIELD 37.03N 76.98W
09/26/2008 SUSSEX VA NWS EMPLOYEE

PONDED WATER SIX INCHES DEEP ACROSS RT 604 WEST OF RT 31
OVER AN HOUR AFTER RAIN ENDED.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KKEY [262014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 262014
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
414 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 PM WATER SPOUT S WINDLEY KEY 24.95N 80.60W
09/26/2008 UPPER KEYS IN MONR FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

A LARGE WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED BY LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
ON THE OCEANSIDE OF MILE MARKER 85. DISTANCE OFFSHORE WAS
UNKNOWN. DISSIPATION OF THE WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED AT
336 PM EDT.


&&

$$

PFUENTES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 262001
SWODY1
SPC AC 261958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL MN AND ADJACENT AREAS...

...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MN AND VICINITY...
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD AND
INTO ADJACENT WRN AND NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL MN SSWWD INTO WRN NEB. WHILE
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION HAS MOVED
NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED INVOF
THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AS FURTHER HEATING COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING ERN MT/THE WRN
DAKOTAS RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CAP.

WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED ACROSS THE RISK AREA AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING/INCREASING TO ROUGHLY 45 KT FROM THE WSW AT
H5...STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE/BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING.

...ERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A DRY SLOT OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC AND INTO
SRN VA HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG NOW INDICATED.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION -- AND THUS SOME CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...CONTINUED
WWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN SC ALONG WITH FURTHER WEAKENING
SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 09/26/2008

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KAKQ [261957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 261957
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM FLASH FLOOD ENE WAVERLY 37.03N 77.10W
09/26/2008 SUSSEX VA NWS EMPLOYEE

PONDED WATER SIX INCHES DEEP ACROSS RT 40 ON NE SIDE OF
WAVERLY 45 MINUTES AFTER RAIN ENDED.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KAKQ [261945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 261945
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1053 AM TORNADO AULANDER 36.23N 77.11W
09/26/2008 F0 BERTIE NC NWS STORM SURVEY

EF-0 TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE 300 BLOCK OF ELM ST IN
AULANDER. SEVEN MOBILE HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE...AND
A FEW LARGE TREES WERE SNAPPED IN HALF. DAMAGE CONSISTENT
WITH WINDS BELOW 75 MPH.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KAKQ [261840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 261840
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW WAKEFIELD 36.98N 77.01W
09/26/2008 M1.60 INCH SUSSEX VA NWS EMPLOYEE

1.6 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN 25 MINUTES AT THE OFFICE.
RAIN INTENSITY HAS SINCE DIMINISHED.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KAKQ [261837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 261837
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
237 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM FLASH FLOOD WAVERLY 37.03N 77.10W
09/26/2008 SUSSEX VA NWS EMPLOYEE

STREET FLOODING IN WAVERLY AT INTERSECTION OF US 460 AND
RT 40. WATER ON ROADWAY WAS 1 TO 2 FT IN DEPTH PROMPTING
PARTIAL CLOSURE.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 908

WWUS20 KWNS 261741
SEL8
SPC WW 261741
MNZ000-LSZ000-270300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN MINNESOTA
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ELY MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRAINERD
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A DECREASING CAP AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. AS
SUCH...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
SURFACE-BASED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR
WHICH WILL ATTEND SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...MEAD/HALES

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261708
SWODY2
SPC AC 261705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW LINGERING OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
-- AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH -- A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WLYS
CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...IT SHOULD MERGE
WITH THE WEAKENING ERN TROUGH AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FASTER BELT OF
MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WRN CANADA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE ALSO BRUSHING THE PAC NW/MT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN CONUS
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST ALSO WEAKENS. A SECOND COLD FRONT
-- ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN CANADA UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS MT...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SRN HALF OF
FL...CONVECTION WILL ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID AND
UPPER OH VALLEY REGION INVOF THE WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THIS
REGION.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE MID MO
VALLEY...INVOF WEAKENING FRONT. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND
NEWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO/ERN WY. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY
MIGRATE/DEVELOP EWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PARTS OF SD/NEB.

WHILE A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE WEAKENING FRONT
OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THEREFORE...WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 09/26/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2293

ACUS11 KWNS 261628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261627
NCZ000-VAZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL AND SERN VA INTO CNTRL AND NERN
NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261627Z - 261800Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE
SUSTAINED STORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT SHOULD TEND TO
DECREASE WITH TIME AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY FROM CNTRL NC
ENEWD TO ALONG THE SERN VA/NERN NC BORDER ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A MARITIME AIR MASS WHICH HAS BEEN ADVECTED INLAND BY
DEEP-LAYER...HYBRID LOW CURRENTLY N OF CAE. MOREOVER...THIS
BOUNDARY IS BEING REINFORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ARISING FROM
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS OVER WRN/CNTRL NC AND MUCH OF VA.

AN ONGOING BAND OF TSTMS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING ON OUTER
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM
GREENSVILLE AND SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES IN SERN VA TO BERTIE COUNTY NC
AS OF 1620Z. RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY FOR INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS THESE STORMS MOVE NWD ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS BEING MAXIMIZED. THIS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT SHOULD TEND TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES WWD AWAY
FROM REGION...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 09/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

35217860 35697928 36607911 36987782 36937712 36617608
35847666 35067830

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KAKQ [261621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 261621
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1221 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 S COURTLAND 36.65N 77.06W
09/26/2008 SOUTHAMPTON VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED SOUTH OF COURTLAND


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 261610
SWODY1
SPC AC 261608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE IN FL

..NRN MN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF LS AND NRN WI...
AIR MASS SAMPLED BOTH BY INL 12Z SOUNDING AND MN ACARS THIS AM
CONFIRM THAT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8C/KM...AND A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR 1.25 INCHES ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
S/W TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS ND.

MLCAPES CURRENTLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
2000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
ONGOING ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS JUST S OF CANADIAN
BORDER...WILL CONTINUE...DRIVEN BY ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT...WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CIN WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD E AND S POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL
MN...NWRN WI BY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER TROUGH AND LOSS OF HEATING.

REF MCD 2292 FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON THIS AREA.

...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
WELL DEFINED STACKED LOW OVER NRN SC CONTINUES TO DRIFT WWD AND
SLOWLY FILL. PLUME OF TROPICAL AIR /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70/
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN/ERN NC AND SE VA ON ERN SIDE OF
SYSTEM... BENEATH MID LVL DRY SLOT.

DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN DRY SLOT SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AN ARC FROM THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC NW INTO S CNTRL/SE VA. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE AND
RESIDUAL BAND OF MODERATE FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD ONE OR TWO ISOLD
TORNADOES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENT
25-30KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER WITH THE WWD MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW...SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..HALES.. 09/26/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261554
SWODY1
SPC AC 261551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

..NRN MN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF LS AND NRN WI...
AIR MASS SAMPLED BOTH BY INL 12Z SOUNDING AND MN ACARS THIS AM
CONFIRM THAT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...8C/KM...AND A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WITH PWS NEAR 1.25 INCHES ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
S/W TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS ND.

MLCAPES CURRENTLY ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND EXPECTED TO INCREAESE TO NEAR
2000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
ONGOING ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS JUST S OF CANADIAN
BORDER...WILL CONTINUE...DRIVEN BY ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT...WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CIN WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD E AND S POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL
MN...NWRN WI BY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
UPPER TROUGH AND LOSS OF HEATING.

REF MCD 2292 FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON THIS AREA.

...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
WELL DEFINED STACKED LOW OVER NRN SC CONTINUES TO DRIFT WWD AND
SLOWLY FILL. PLUME OF TROPICAL AIR/WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70/
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN/ERN NC AND SE VA ON ERN SIDE OF
SYSTEM... BENEATH MID LVL DRY SLOT.

DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN DRY SLOT SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AN ARC FROM THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC NW INTO S CNTRL/SE VA. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE AND
RESIDUAL BAND OF MODERATE FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD ONE OR TWO ISOLD
TORNADOES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENT
25-30KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER WITH THE WWD MOVEMENT AND WEAKING OF THE LOW...SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 09/26/2008

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KAKQ [261552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 261552
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1151 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1053 AM TORNADO AULANDER 36.23N 77.11W
09/26/2008 BERTIE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IN THE 300 BLOCK
OF ELM ST IN AULANDER. ALSO A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON A
RESIDENCE IN AULANDER.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KKEY [261551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 261551
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1151 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0851 AM TSTM WND GST BOCA CHICA 24.59N 81.70W
09/26/2008 M56 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL ASOS

A WIND GUST OF 49 KNOTS...OR 56 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY THE
BOCA CHICA ASOS AT 851 AM EDT. THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED
AN APPROACHING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

$$

FUTTERMAN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2292

ACUS11 KWNS 261516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261515
MNZ000-NDZ000-261645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261515Z - 261645Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW N OF PIR WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR RRT SWWD THROUGH THIS LOW INTO
W-CNTRL OR SWRN SD. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS ALREADY POTENTIALLY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF QUITE STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM /PER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/. RECENT
TRENDS IN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW TSTMS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT OVER E-CNTRL/SERN ND...LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD
INTO CNTRL ND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY LINKING WITH
BACKBUILDING STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER N-CNTRL MN.

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONSIDERABLE
DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY ACROSS MN. THIS
HEATING...COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000
J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SETUP
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 09/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

46559732 48679512 48719321 48229185 47029255 46019507
45999653

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KAKQ [261509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 261509
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1108 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1053 AM TORNADO AULANDER 36.23N 77.11W
09/26/2008 BERTIE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO REPORTED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES NEAR AULANDER AND
MOVING NORTH.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KDLH [261504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 261504
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1004 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HAIL KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
09/26/2008 E0.88 INCH ST. LOUIS MN PUBLIC


&&

$$

RBERDES

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KDLH [261430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 261430
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
930 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HAIL KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
09/26/2008 E0.88 INCH ST. LOUIS MN PARK/FOREST SRVC


&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [261328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 261328
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
828 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 AM HAIL KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
09/26/2008 E0.88 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

SWANNEBO

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KDLH [261257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 261257
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
757 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 AM HAIL KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
09/26/2008 E1.00 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

SWANNEBO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261253
SWODY1
SPC AC 261250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SRN PORTIONS OF
WRN/CNTRL CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN SC MOVES
NW INTO WRN NC. ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS...IMPULSE NOW OVER
CNTRL MT SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO WRN ND BY EVE...AND INTO MN EARLY
SATURDAY AS WEAKER LEAD DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN DAKS SHEARS ENE
INTO MN/WRN ONTARIO.

AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH MT/DAKS
SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY ESE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT
LKS...WHILE WEAK SSW/NNE-ORIENTED BOUNDARY EDGES SLOWLY NW ACROSS
ERN/CNTRL NC AND SE VA.

...UPR MS VLY THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING MN LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS
...EVEN MODEST HEATING OF MODIFIED CP AIR BENEATH EXISTING EML PLUME
SHOULD SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE OVER NRN/CNTRL MN BY AFTN.

STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN
MN LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN AS ASCENT STRENGTHENS
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE. STRONGER...SFC-BASED
STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE FRONT AS EML CAP
IS BREACHED AND DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT CONTINUE.

40 KT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ROTATING STRUCTURES.
BUT WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
BE BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. THE STORMS COULD YIELD ISOLD DMGG WIND AND
SVR HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE UPR MS VLY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION DEVELOPS N OF
LK SUPERIOR AND MAIN UPR TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
SETUP COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH POSSIBLE
BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY...ALONG THE STILL-PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT FROM
NRN/WRN WI SW INTO SRN MN AND POSSIBLY NRN IA.

...ERN NC TO LWR CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTN/EVE...
SATELLITE AND PRESSURE CHANGE DATA SUGGEST THAT HYBRID... VERTICALLY
STACKED SC LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WNW TODAY. IT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CST. HOWEVER... PLUME OF TROPICAL
AIR /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70/ WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
NRN/ERN NC AND SE VA ON ERN SIDE OF SYSTEM... BENEATH MID LVL DRY
SLOT.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN DRY SLOT MAY SUPPORT
REDEVELOPMENT OF BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AN ARC FROM
THE OUTER BANKS OF NC NW INTO S CNTRL/SE VA. COUPLED WITH RICH
MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL BAND OF MODERATE FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD ONE
OR TWO ISOLD TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST AS
SHOWERS/STORMS CROSS AXIS OF ENLARGED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED SSW/NNE SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTN.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 09/26/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2291

ACUS11 KWNS 260939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260939
MNZ000-261115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260939Z - 261115Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN ND. ELEVATED CELLS ARE INITIATING
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IN NCNTRL MN WHERE SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH RUC ANALYZING MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO
2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 40
KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CELLS ARE
LOCATED ON THE ERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS AROUND -14C. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MATURE EARLY THIS
MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 09/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

46459506 46519562 46799586 47069575 47859493 48279435
48619353 48649246 48499204 48189189 47859202 47499241
47099321 46639429 46489490

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260845
SWOD48
SPC AC 260844

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG
DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SPREAD EXISTS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF
THIS EVOLUTION AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
VARIABILITY GROWS CONSIDERABLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GFS/MREF ALL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION
ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY...THE PATTERN EVOLUTION
LEADING INTO AND THROUGH THIS PERIOD DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHEN/WHERE A STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE MAIN IMPULSE MAY FINALLY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO A LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED BY
THIS TIME...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS .

..KERR.. 09/26/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260729
SWODY3
SPC AC 260727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGS WITHIN A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
AMPLIFYING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT KYLE WILL TRACK EAST OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF A
CLOSED LOW NOW MIGRATING INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...NEW ENGLAND...
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE ACCELERATING CIRCULATION
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
PRECLUDING AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING MAY
NOT SPREAD SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK
SUNDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH...WITH SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BUT...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST LOW
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...IF FORCING BECOMES SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS

..KERR.. 09/26/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2290

ACUS11 KWNS 260634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260634
NCZ000-VAZ000-260800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260634Z - 260800Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN NC. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION ATTM.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 998 MB LOW OVER FAR ERN SC WITH RAINBANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS ERN SC AND CNTRL NC. A CONFLUENCE
ZONE AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS ALONG I-95 IN ERN NC. THE
MOST PROMINENT RAINBAND IS LOCATED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY
FROM NEAR GREENSBORO NC ESEWD TO NEAR GREENVILLE NC. WSR-88D VWPS IN
ERN NC ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 35 KT. AS THE MORE ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE RAINBAND MOVE WNWWD ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 09/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

36887609 36047536 34507642 34687756 35317764 36257716

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260554
SWODY2
SPC AC 260553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...THROUGH MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
AREA...APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z
SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHILE KYLE
ACCELERATES NORTHWARD TO ITS EAST...WEST THROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. WHILE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL FAIRLY LARGE WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY
TO PASS EAST OF CAPE COD SOMETIME EARLY TO MID DAY SUNDAY.

SEVERAL AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEAR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
GENERALLY NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO WEAKNESSES IN FLOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...OR SOME COMBINATION THEREOF. AN EXCEPTION COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT MOISTENING
AND HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
PROGRESSING INTO/THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION...WEAKNESS IN INHIBITION BENEATH AN ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH... COUPLED WITH BROADLY DIFLUENT UPPER
FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST...BUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS SATURDAY
EVENING.

..KERR.. 09/26/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260552
SWODY1
SPC AC 260550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

BELT OF STRONGER WLYS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND MN. MODIFIED CP AIR WITH
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR BENEATH 7.5-8C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH AXIS OF 1500
J/KG MLCAPE PROBABLE IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON WHEN DIABATIC HEATING AND FRONTAL
FORCING AUGMENTED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT ACTIVITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.


...ERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY WNWWD INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN
CAROLINAS. MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED WWD ABOVE A
SHALLOW STABLE LAYER REINFORCED BY ONGOING RAIN...BUT THE TRUE
COASTAL FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC NWD INTO SERN VA. THE
ADVECTION OF 70S DEWPOINTS INLAND SHOULD RESULT IN 500-1000 MUCAPE
IN WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEATING OCCURS. HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT TREND SHOULD BE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS WWD.

..DIAL/GRAMS.. 09/26/2008

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