Wednesday, November 25, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260449
SWODY1
SPC AC 260447

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER BELTS OF POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF PHASE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND
BEYOND. BUT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE...CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO/THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SHORT-LIVED LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS IS
PROGGED TO SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ADVANCE
THROUGH/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BENEATH A CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PROMINENT OVER WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS AND
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT... STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH LOW OR
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC...
BEFORE AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS
TO EXIST FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AND THE
KEYS. HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND EVOLVING SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS.

..KERR.. 11/26/2009

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KLWX [260142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 260142
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
842 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 AM FLOOD 1 NW NEWCOMB HALL 38.04N 78.52W
11/19/2009 ALBEMARLE VA 911 CENTER

ROADS CLOSED NEAR THE INTERSECTIONS OF ALDERMAN RD AND
LEWIS MOUNTAIN RD...AND IVY RD AND OLD IVY RD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX0900475

$$

SBK

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KLWX [260137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 260137
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
836 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 AM FLOOD 1 ENE CHARLOTTESVILLE 38.05N 78.46W
11/19/2009 ALBEMARLE VA BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL ROADS COVERED WITH WATER IN VICINITY OF HOLMES
AVENUE AND AGNESE STREET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX0900474

$$

SBK

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KLWX [260124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 260124
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
824 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0939 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 N BATESVILLE 38.01N 78.72W
11/19/2009 ALBEMARLE VA EMERGENCY MNGR

VEHICLE INVOLVED IN HIGH WATER RESCUE ON BURCHS CREEK
ROAD SOUTH OF CROZET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX0900473

$$

SBK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260035
SWODY1
SPC AC 260034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PENINSULA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT NOW WELL EAST AND SOUTH
OF COASTAL AREAS. THIS...COUPLED WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE PENINSULA... APPEARS
TO HAVE DIMINISHED THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 11/26/2009

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KKEY [260020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 260020
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
720 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
11/25/2009 M46 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY THE
C-MAN STATION AT MOLASSAS REEF LIGHT. THIS WIND GUST WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KFGF [252003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 252003
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
203 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW 15 NE DETROIT LAKES 46.97N 95.62W
11/25/2009 M1.5 INCH BECKER MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

VGODON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251953
SWODY1
SPC AC 251952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE 20Z OUTLOOK IS TO MOVE THE THUNDER LINE
SLIGHTLY SEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION.

..BROYLES.. 11/25/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/

STRONG S/WV TROUGH DROPPING SEWD UPR MS VALLEY DEVELOPS A COLD UPPER
LOW OVER OH VALLEY BY 12Z THU. THE WEAK SRN BRANCH IMPULSE THAT
MOVED EWD ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND WHICH SUPPORTED THE STRONG
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SRN FL WILL TRACK INTO ATLANTIC TO E OF FL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RESULTANT LESSENING OF ANY STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT
FL PENINSULA.


HAVE DROPPED PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SEVERE OVER SRN FL AS AIRMASS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LOST MUCH OF INSTABILITY.

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KKEY [251948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 251948
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
247 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0118 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW LONG KEY 24.84N 80.86W
11/25/2009 M39 MPH GMZ031 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 39 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY THE
C-MAN STATION AT LONG KEY. THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A THUNDERSTORM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251655
SWODY2
SPC AC 251654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH NEAR A COLD FRONT
IN SRN FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE NEAR 60 F. IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...ISOLATED STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF WRN
WA AND NW ORE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 11/25/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251617
SWODY1
SPC AC 251616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG S/WV TROUGH DROPPING SEWD UPR MS VALLEY DEVELOPS A COLD UPPER
LOW OVER OH VALLEY BY 12Z THU. THE WEAK SRN BRANCH IMPULSE THAT
MOVED EWD ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND WHICH SUPPORTED THE STRONG
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SRN FL WILL TRACK INTO ATLANTIC TO E OF FL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RESULTANT LESSENING OF ANY STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT
FL PENINSULA.


HAVE DROPPED PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SEVERE OVER SRN FL AS AIRMASS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LOST MUCH OF INSTABILITY.

..HALES/GARNER.. 11/25/2009

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KTBW [251544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 251544
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1044 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM HEAVY RAIN SARASOTA 27.34N 82.55W
11/25/2009 M4.50 INCH SARASOTA FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS 4.50 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1015
AM.


&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KFGF [251458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 251458
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
858 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM SNOW PEMBINA 48.97N 97.25W
11/25/2009 M1.0 INCH PEMBINA ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW SEBEKA 46.63N 95.09W
11/25/2009 M2.0 INCH WADENA MN CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

VGODON

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KMFL [251457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 251457
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
956 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
11/25/2009 M39.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

MEASURED AT FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION AT AN ALTITUDE OF
144 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.

0950 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N HOMESTEAD 25.50N 80.47W
11/25/2009 M4.26 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

MEASURED AT AVOCADO ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IN HOMESTEAD SINCE
MIDNIGHT.


&&

$$

MOLLEDA

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KTBW [251446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 251446
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
946 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM HEAVY RAIN E SOUTH GATE RIDGE 27.29N 82.50W
11/25/2009 M3.53 INCH SARASOTA FL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER HAS MEASURED 3.53 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 7 AM WITH MINOR FLOODING OBSERVED.


&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KBIS [251437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 251437
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW MONTPELIER 46.70N 98.59W
11/25/2009 M1.0 INCH STUTSMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

LLP

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KBIS [251428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 251428
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
828 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW WILTON 47.16N 100.78W
11/25/2009 M1.0 INCH MCLEAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

LLP

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KBIS [251400]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 251400
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
800 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW MEDINA 46.89N 99.30W
11/25/2009 M1.0 INCH STUTSMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

LLP

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KTBW [251348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 251348
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
848 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE SARASOTA 27.28N 82.49W
11/25/2009 M4.16 INCH SARASOTA FL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER HAS MEASURED 4.16 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
7 AM THIS MORNING. MINOR FLOODING OBSERVED.


&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KBIS [251307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 251307
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
707 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW JAMESTOWN 46.91N 98.71W
11/25/2009 M1.1 INCH STUTSMAN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

STATE HOSPITAL REPORT.


&&

$$

VROLLER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251253
SWODY1
SPC AC 251251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD...AS DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER IL/IND...AND UPSTREAM RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE
NRN RCKYS. IN THE SRN STREAM...IMPULSE NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS FL AND THE WRN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS WSWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SE SIDE OF
AMPLIFYING MS VLY TROUGH.

AT THE SFC...CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING ENE
ACROSS S FL FROM A SFC WAVE ABOUT 75 MILES WSW OF FMY. THE WAVE
SHOULD REFORM ALONG OR JUST OFF THE E FL CST /NEAR VRB/ LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONTINUING NE OFF THE FL CST TONIGHT. FARTHER
S...STNRY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FL KEYS
LIKELY WILL PERSIST UNTIL WAVE MOVES OFF THE E FL CST LATER TODAY.

...S FL...
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION AND SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE SERN
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA TODAY IN AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA/
MOISTURE INFLOW NEAR AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE. WINDS AS SHOWN BY
AREA VAD PROFILES HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SPEEDS WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LVL VEERING NOW PRESENT ARE
SUPPORTIVE SUSTAINED STORMS/WEAK SUPERCELLS...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW
LVL FORCING. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY
AS GULF IMPULSE CONTINUES ENEWD...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IS NOT
EXPECTED. PW WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES.

OVERALL...SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED STORMS OVER S FL TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF
STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED ACTIVITY. GIVEN HIGH PW AND MODEST
SHEAR...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLD TORNADO
WILL CONTINUE. THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN ALONG THE SE CST FROM NEAR VRB S TO MIA. THE RISK
DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLGT RISK ATTM GIVEN WEAK
LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/25/2009

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KKEY [251212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 251212
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
712 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NW LONG KEY 24.84N 80.86W
11/25/2009 M49 MPH GMZ031 FL C-MAN STATION

A SOUTH WIND GUST OF 43 KNOTS...49 MPH...WAS MEASURED AT
THE LONG KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

JR

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KKEY [251056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 251056
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
556 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 S MARATHON 24.70N 81.08W
11/25/2009 MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREES SNAPPED AND POWER LINES DOWNED ALONG SOMBRERO
BEACH ROAD IN MARATHON. REPORTED AT 430 AM EST TO STATE
WARNING POINT FROM MONROE COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS. TIME OF
EVENT ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

JR

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KKEY [251013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KKEY 251013
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
513 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0404 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
11/25/2009 M44.00 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND GUST OF 38 KNOTS...44 MPH...WAS
MEASURED AT THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

JR

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KKEY [251012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 251012
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
512 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0511 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
11/25/2009 M44 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND GUST OF 38 KNOTS...44 MPH...WAS
MEASURED AT THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

JR

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KKEY [250924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 250924
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
11/25/2009 E40.00 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...40 MPH...WAS
MEASURED AT THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

JR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2180

ACUS11 KWNS 250814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250814
FLZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL AND THE KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250814Z - 251015Z

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO OR LOCALLY
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED/LOW-END THREAT
SUGGESTS THAT WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

LATEST MIAMI AND KEY WEST RADARS REVEAL SCATTERED CELLULAR
CONVECTION ON THE SERN FRINGE OF A LARGER AREA OF MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. RADAR REVEALS THAT SEVERAL OF THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
WEAK ROTATION...CONSISTENT WITH AREA VAD WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOW
MODEST -- BUT VEERING -- FLOW WITH HEIGHT.

WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES QUITE WEAK AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOW
LIMITED -- AND NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AT
BEST. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FOR AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT
TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE KEYS.

..GOSS.. 11/25/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 26248001 25547984 24947993 24258027 23698080 23488175
23638249 24448225 25198175 25628104 26248001

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250536
SWODY2
SPC AC 250535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THANKSGIVING WEATHER INTEREST WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEP/COLD TROUGH OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TROUGH
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE UPR OH VLY THURSDAY AFTN AND
THEN TRANSLATE ENE INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
180-METER/12-HR HEIGHT FALLS. NWLY FLOW IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
FORCE A CDFNT WELL S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL STRAITS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

UPSTREAM...A NEW UPR TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW WHILE A
SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MIGRATES OVER NRN MEXICO.

...MID-ATLC REGION...
STRONG PV-ANOMALY AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES APCHG 7 DEG C PER KM WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH TRANSITION TO NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A FEW HOURS OF
SMALL ELEVATED CAPE...AND GIVEN SUCH STRONG UVV EXPECTED...SPORADIC
BURSTS OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

...CSTL PAC NW...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST...POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. MID-LVL
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE UPR TROUGH APPROACH MINUS 30 DEG C AND
CLOUD-TOPS WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

..RACY.. 11/25/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250528
SWODY1
SPC AC 250526

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL JET MAX OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECREASING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST BY DARK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE
BEFORE NOON AND MAINLY ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THE
00Z NAM AND 4KM WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A
TORNADO. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY
BRING THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO AN END. THE OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES.

..HART/GRAMS.. 11/25/2009

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