Friday, October 12, 2012

KAMA [130323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 130323
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1022 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM HAIL 1 N PAMPA 35.56N 100.96W
10/12/2012 E1.50 INCH GRAY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF PAMPA

0835 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/12/2012 E1.75 INCH GRAY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE COVERING THE GROUND UP TO AN
INCH DEEP NEAR THE WALMART

0837 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/12/2012 E1.00 INCH GRAY TX EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200702 AMA1200703 AMA1200701

$$

ABM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2041

ACUS11 KWNS 130312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130311
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-130445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO AND OK
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 130311Z - 130445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST
KS/OK PANHANDLE. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL...SUCH THAT A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GRADUALLY CONGEAL IN A
QUASI-LINEAR FASHION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AS OF 03Z.
IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS ARE LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA/UPPER JET EXIT REGION...ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT. THE
ONGOING TSTMS SEEM LIKELY TO GENERALLY OUTRUN A NARROW AXIS OF
NEAR-SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY /ALBEIT WEAK WITH INHIBITION INCREASING/
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. AS SUCH...A RELATIVELY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEMPER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WHILE
THESE TSTMS OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO LINEARLY ORGANIZE/STEADILY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AID OF INCREASING ASCENT/STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. 50+ WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND 3-5 KM AND ABOVE PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP TRENDS FROM KPUX/KFDX/KDDC/KAMA. WITH
TIME...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
EVOLVING CLUSTER CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KS/WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE AMID THE INCREASING WAA REGIME. RAPID
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HAIL
POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35950369 36930306 38280214 38840100 38419951 36060084
35950369

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KLUB [130231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLUB 130231
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
930 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0606 PM HAIL SHALLOWATER 33.69N 101.99W
10/12/2012 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0621 PM HAIL HALE CENTER 34.06N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E2.00 INCH HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0621 PM TSTM WND GST HALE CENTER 34.06N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E65 MPH HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0639 PM HAIL 6 N ABERNATHY 33.93N 101.85W
10/12/2012 M2.00 INCH HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0648 PM HAIL 6 S HALE CENTER 33.98N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E2.75 INCH HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

CRACKED WINDSHIELD

0658 PM HAIL HALE CENTER 34.06N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E2.75 INCH HALE TX SKYWARN SPOTTER

0701 PM HAIL 4 N KRESS 34.42N 101.75W
10/12/2012 E1.75 INCH SWISHER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0701 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N KRESS 34.42N 101.75W
10/12/2012 E70 MPH SWISHER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0708 PM TORNADO 5 SE HALE CENTER 34.01N 101.78W
10/12/2012 HALE TX SKYWARN SPOTTER

0710 PM HAIL TULIA 34.54N 101.77W
10/12/2012 E1.75 INCH SWISHER TX POLICE DEPT

0722 PM TORNADO 8 W LOCKNEY 34.12N 101.58W
10/12/2012 HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY NWS AMARILLO. SPOTTER REPORTED LOCATION NEAR
LOCKNEY. TORNADO LOCATED ESTIMATED

0740 PM HAIL 3 S HALE CENTER 34.02N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E2.75 INCH HALE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CAR WINDOWS BROKEN BY HAIL AT REST STOP ON I-27


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200392 LUB1200393 LUB1200394 LUB1200395 LUB1200396
LUB1200397 LUB1200398 LUB1200399 LUB1200403 LUB1200400 LUB1200402
LUB1200401

$$

JGD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2040

ACUS11 KWNS 130219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130219
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-130315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 660...

VALID 130219Z - 130315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 660 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 660 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z. LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED /BUT DIMINISHING/ TORNADO
THREAT...CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX
PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE STORM ACROSS WW 660 IS OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM WITH A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL LOCATED AROUND
25 MILES NORTH OF HOBBS AS OF 0200Z. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT THREAT...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE. IN
SPITE OF ESTIMATED 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2...THE WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY COOL/DECOUPLE AND THIS SHOULD
TEMPER TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH INCREASINGLY ELEVATED INFLOW OVER
TIME.

FARTHER NORTH...WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVING DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AN INCREASINGLY ELEVATED/RESIDUAL
LEFT-SPLIT TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST/EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...WITH AID OF
A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THESE TSTMS. OTHER TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36170413 36710371 36330236 36090044 35070061 32340264
32520424 33790356 35190395 36170413

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KABQ [130214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 130214
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
813 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HAIL 8 ENE ELKINS 33.73N 103.93W
10/12/2012 M1.00 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201317

$$

GUYER

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KAMA [130206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 130206
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
906 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/12/2012 E1.75 INCH GRAY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE COVERING THE GROUND UP TO AN
INCH DEEP NEAR THE WALMART


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200703

$$

BJS

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KAMA [130156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 130156
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
856 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM HAIL 1 N PAMPA 35.56N 100.96W
10/12/2012 E1.50 INCH GRAY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF PAMPA


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200702

$$

BJS

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KLOX [130153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 130153
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
653 PM PDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0933 AM WATER SPOUT 8 SE LONG BEACH 33.71N 118.06W
10/12/2012 PZZ655 CA ASOS

WATERSPOUT SITED BY LONG BEACH AIRPORT ABOUT 10 MILES TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT.

0940 AM WATER SPOUT 7 SE LONG BEACH 33.72N 118.08W
10/12/2012 PZZ655 CA BROADCAST MEDIA

FOX AFFILIATE KTTV-11 SPOTS WATERSPOUT NEAR SHORE OF
SUNSET BEACH IN ORANGE COUNTY.

0932 AM WATER SPOUT 8 SE LONG BEACH 33.71N 118.06W
10/12/2012 PZZ655 CA PUBLIC

WATERSPOUT REPORTED NEAR SUNSET BEACH ON TWITTER.


&&

$$

HALL

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KAMA [130138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 130138
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
838 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0837 PM HAIL PAMPA 35.55N 100.96W
10/12/2012 E1.00 INCH GRAY TX EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200701

$$

SMB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 130116
SWODY1
SPC AC 130114

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0814 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER WRN HALF OF CONUS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF PERIOD...AS PREVIOUSLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE ACCELERATES
ENEWD ACROSS UT/NRN AZ. 500-MB LOW SHOULD REACH CO ROCKIES BY END
OF PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN NM AND SERN AZ.

AT SFC...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAWN OVER SERN/S-CENTRAL
KS THEN SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/SWRN OK...BETWEEN CDS-LBB...WWD TO ERN
NM VICINITY CVS...AND INTO HIGHER TERRAIN S OF I-40.
OLDER...SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN IN WNW-ESE ALIGNMENT
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD
ACROSS NRN OK AND SERN KS...AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW/ILL-DEFINED WITH
TIME -- AS WILL OK/TX/NM SEGMENT OF OTHER FRONTAL ZONE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
SEVERAL WIDELY DISTRIBUTED AREAS OF STG-SVR CONVECTION ARE
EVIDENT...OVER SRN PANHANDLE/S-PLAINS REGION OF TX...SERN
NM...N-CENTRAL/NERN NM NEAR I-25...AND NRN PORTIONS TX/NM BORDER.
REF WW 660 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE ON SVR THREAT OVER THIS REGION.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GROW THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING
HOURS. SUPERCELLS STILL WILL BE POSSIBLE AMIDST 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN IN AND S OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS UNTIL
NEAR-SFC LAYER SUFFICIENTLY COOLS TO ELEVATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS AGL. WITH FRONTAL ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIFFUSE AMIDST
STG/BROAD WAA PLUME...GRADATION BETWEEN SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED
INFLOW PARCELS LIKEWISE WILL SHIFT NWD IN INCREASINGLY NEBULOUS
FASHION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING
FROM PORTIONS ERN KS NNEWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SRN IA. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS PORTIONS KS...NEB
AND PERHAPS SWRN IA...LEADING TO NET INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT IN SSW-NNE PLUME. TSTM INCREASE WILL OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT BOOSTS 850-700 MB LAYER
THETAE...AMIDST BROAD...STRENGTHENING...SSWLY LLJ. GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AWAY FROM CONVECTION...THIS PROCESS WILL
BOOST ELEVATED BUOYANCY...LEADING TO CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE RANGING FROM
AROUND 1800 J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OVER WRN IA.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES FOR ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST...I.E. 30-35 KT...INDICATING ISOLATED/MRGL HAIL RISK. A FEW
STG GUSTS COULD REACH SFC OVER AREAS FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD TO
CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WHERE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER BECOMES RELATIVELY
SHALLOW. THAT WOULD BE RELATED MORE TO PRECIP LOADING THAN
EVAPORATIVE DRYING...GIVEN HIGH-RH CHARACTER OF SUBCLOUD LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130102
SWODY1
SPC AC 130059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER WRN HALF OF CONUS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF PERIOD...AS PREVIOUSLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE ACCELERATES
ENEWD ACROSS UT/NRN AZ. 500-MB LOW SHOULD REACH CO ROCKIES BY END
OF PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE/POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN NM AND SERN AZ.

AT SFC...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAWN OVER SERN/S-CENTRAL
KS THEN SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/SWRN OK...BETWEEN CDS-LBB...WWD TO ERN
NM VICINITY CVS...AND INTO HIGHER TERRAIN S OF I-40.
OLDER...SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN IN WNW-ESE ALIGNMENT
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD
ACROSS NRN OK AND SERN KS...AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW/ILL-DEFINED WITH
TIME -- AS WILL OK/TX/NM SEGMENT OF OTHER FRONTAL ZONE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
SEVERAL WIDELY DISTRIBUTED AREAS OF STG-SVR CONVECTION ARE
EVIDENT...OVER SRN PANHANDLE/S-PLAINS REGION OF TX...SERN
NM...N-CENTRAL/NERN NM NEAR I-25...AND NRN PORTIONS TX/NM BORDER.
REF WW 660 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE ON SVR THREAT OVER THIS REGION.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GROW THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING
HOURS. SUPERCELLS STILL WILL BE POSSIBLE AMIDST 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN IN AND S OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS UNTIL
NEAR-SFC LAYER SUFFICIENTLY COOLS TO ELEVATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS AGL. WITH FRONTAL ZONES EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIFFUSE AMIDST
STG/BROAD WAA PLUME...GRADATION BETWEEN SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED
INFLOW PARCELS LIKEWISE WILL SHIFT NWD IN INCREASINGLY NEBULOUS
FASHION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING
FROM PORTIONS ERN KS NNEWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SRN IA. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS PORTIONS KS...NEB
AND PERHAPS SWRN IA...LEADING TO NET INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT IN SSW-NNE PLUME. TSTM INCREASE WILL OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT BOOSTS 850-700 MB LAYER
THETAE...AMIDST BROAD...STRENGTHENING...SSWLY LLJ. GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AWAY FROM CONVECTION...THIS PROCESS WILL
BOOST ELEVATED BUOYANCY...LEADING TO CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE RANGING FROM
AROUND 1800 J/KG OVER CENTRAL KS TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OVER WRN IA.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES FOR ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST...I.E. 30-35 KT...INDICATING ISOLATED/MRGL HAIL RISK. A FEW
STG GUSTS COULD REACH SFC OVER AREAS FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD TO
CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WHERE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER BECOMES RELATIVELY
SHALLOW. THAT WOULD BE RELATED MORE TO PRECIP LOADING THAN
EVAPORATIVE DRYING...GIVEN HIGH-RH CHARACTER OF SUBCLOUD LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2012

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KLUB [130043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 130043
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
742 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM HAIL 3 S HALE CENTER 34.02N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E2.75 INCH HALE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CAR WINDOWS BROKEN BY HAIL AT REST STOP ON I-27


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200401

$$

JGD

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KLUB [130016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 130016
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
716 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL TULIA 34.54N 101.77W
10/12/2012 E1.75 INCH SWISHER TX POLICE DEPT


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200400

$$

JGD

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KLUB [130004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 130004
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
704 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0701 PM HAIL 4 N KRESS 34.42N 101.75W
10/12/2012 E1.75 INCH SWISHER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0701 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N KRESS 34.42N 101.75W
10/12/2012 E70 MPH SWISHER TX BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200398
EVENT NUMBER LUB1200399

$$

MCONDER

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KMAF [130003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KMAF 130003
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
701 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM HAIL N ARTESIA 32.85N 104.43W
10/12/2012 E2.75 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. HIGHWAY 285 AND STATE ROAD 2.DAMAGE
ORIGINATED THERE AND CONTINUED NORTH TOWARDS THE COUNTY
LINE. ROOF AND CAR DAMAGE.

0653 PM HAIL 4 S ARTESIA 32.79N 104.43W
10/12/2012 M1.00 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL. EVENT LASTED 5 MIN.


&&

$$

KAT

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KLUB [122358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 122358
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
658 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM HAIL HALE CENTER 34.06N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E2.75 INCH HALE TX SKYWARN SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200397

$$

JGD

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KLUB [122349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 122349
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
649 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0648 PM HAIL 6 S HALE CENTER 33.98N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E2.75 INCH HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

CRACKED WINDSHIELD


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200396

$$

JGD

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KLUB [122340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 122340
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 PM HAIL 6 N ABERNATHY 33.93N 101.85W
10/12/2012 M2.00 INCH HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200395

$$

JGD

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 660

WWUS20 KWNS 122325
SEL0
SPC WW 122325
NMZ000-TXZ000-130700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NM NEW MEXICO
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO TO 25 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND MUCH OF WEST/NORTHWEST
TX. A SEASONALLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AS
WELL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY/MID EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...GUYER

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KLUB [122322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 122322
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM HAIL HALE CENTER 34.06N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E2.00 INCH HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0621 PM TSTM WND GST HALE CENTER 34.06N 101.84W
10/12/2012 E65 MPH HALE TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200393
EVENT NUMBER LUB1200394

$$

JGD

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KMAF [122308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 122308
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM HAIL N ARTESIA 32.85N 104.43W
10/12/2012 E0.25 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. HIGHWAY 285 AND STATE ROAD 2.DAMAGE
ORIGINATED THERE AND CONTINUED NORTH TOWARDS THE COUNTY
LINE. ROOF AND CAR DAMAGE.


&&

$$

KAT

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KLUB [122307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 122307
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0606 PM HAIL SHALLOWATER 33.69N 101.99W
10/12/2012 E1.00 INCH LUBBOCK TX BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200392

$$

JGD

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KABQ [122300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 122300
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
500 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 4 NNW LAMY 35.54N 105.90W
10/12/2012 E0.88 INCH SANTA FE NM COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201316

$$

JF

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KABQ [122259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 122259
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
459 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 4 WSW GLORIETA 35.56N 105.84W
10/12/2012 M1.25 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

RANCHEROS CAMPGROUND


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201315

$$

GUYER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2039

ACUS11 KWNS 122250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122250
TXZ000-NMZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 122250Z - 130015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO WEST TX.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. CLOSELY
MONITORING FOR A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY...THE LEADING /EASTERN/ EDGE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS/IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EASTWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR AT A WESTERN LONGITUDE /55-65 F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN EASTERN NM/...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING NUMBER OF TSTMS THIS EVENING. SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM NEAR CARLSBAD AS OF
2230Z...AND MORE RECENTLY NEAR THE LUBBOCK/PLAINVIEW TX AREAS. IN
ALL...IT IS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF MODEST INHIBITION WITH
MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. AS DEEP LAYER WINDS/VERTICAL
SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES THIS EVENING...WIND PROFILES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS INITIALLY MODEST SOUTH OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND TX PANHANDLE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...MASS
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY
INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING...A TREND ALREADY NOTED PER
THE CANNON AFB NM WSR-88D VWP /200 0-1 KM SRH/. AS SUCH...A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE SUPERCELLS INDEED OCCUR/REMAIN
SUSTAINED THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32070446 33690420 35110372 35670228 35370110 34390069
32190185 31150277 31260372 32070446

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KABQ [122248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 122248
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
448 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 12 S SANTA FE 35.50N 105.95W
10/12/2012 M0.88 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201314

$$

GUYER

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KMAF [122242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 122242
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 4 SE CARLSBAD 32.36N 104.19W
10/12/2012 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

$$

DH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2038

ACUS11 KWNS 122238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122237
OKZ000-TXZ000-122330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK...FAR NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122237Z - 122330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED INVOF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A DMGG
WIND GUST...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 22Z PLACES A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20
SW CDS TO 25 N FSI...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EVIDENT N OF THE
FRONT PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. RECENT BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER TO THE S OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF STRONG
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S F
OVER SWRN OK. THIS HAS AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN
OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED WITH
10-15 MPH WINDS OBSERVED. HOWEVER...TRENDS SHOW TSTMS ARE QUICKLY
MOVING N OF THE FRONT INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT GIVEN FAVORABLE
/BUT WEAK/ VEERING 0-1 KM AGL WINDS NOTED IN REGIONAL VWP DATA...AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGEST ANY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED/BRIEF...WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35059720 34579801 34009957 33990021 34220054 34510045
35159934 35299901 35559829 35479755 35419743 35059720

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KABQ [122131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 122131
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.31W
10/12/2012 E0.75 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201313

$$

JF

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121948
SWODY1
SPC AC 121946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
REGION...

...DISCUSSION...
ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO OUTLOOK LINES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EWD. CONVECTION IS
INCREASING ATTM ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/W TX...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER PROBABILITY THREAT
FOR HAIL/WIND AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA. ELEVATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT -- AND MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL -- STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO INCREASE NNEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS BEING MADE TO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL NOW PRIMARILY E OF THE PRIOR SLIGHT
RISK AREA. WHILE A SMALL/NARROW AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE RISK
EXISTS OVER A PORTION OF N CENTRAL NM AND ADJACENT SRN CO...WILL OPT
NOT TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK EWD AND MAINTAIN ONLY SEE TEXT/LOW
PROBABILITY RISK ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..GOSS.. 10/12/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012/

...SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AND PROGRESS ENEWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING
AND ERN CO/NM BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SURFACE FRONT IS NOW STALLING
ACROSS NE NM...THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND NW OK. THE EJECTING
MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING CO/NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THOUGH RAINFALL REINFORCING THE
FRONT ACROSS NM/TX/OK WILL LIMIT EROSION OF THE COOL/STABLE AIR AND
NWD PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE FRONT. S OF THE FRONT...RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/...AND
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S NEAR THE FRONT.

OTHER THAN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT CONCERNS THE IMPACTS OF
ONGOING CONVECTION. RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF E CENTRAL NM. THUS...THE MOST
PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE ERN NM/TX BORDER...POSSIBLY AS FAR S
AS SE NM/W CENTRAL TX. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER SWLY FLOW AND
MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL RESULT IN HODOGRAPHS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...IN COMBINATION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 250 M2/S2...WILL SUPPORT THE RISK
FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

...FOUR CORNERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IS ROTATING NEWD OVER AZ THIS MORNING...WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD
BREAKS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AT A RELATIVELY HIGH
ELEVATION...WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WHERE COOL
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

...KS/NE/MO/IA AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE S IN TX/OK.
THOUGH THE COOL AIR SHOULD RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...THE SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING/MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS.
THUS...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT IS IN QUESTION...WITH
LARGELY SUB-SEVERE/ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2037

ACUS11 KWNS 121803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121803
NMZ000-COZ000-121930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121803Z - 121930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BANDS OF SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEWD ACROSS N-CNTRL NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR WEATHER THREAT...A WW DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...MID-DAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SWWD FROM WRN KS INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN BACKED OVER N-CNTRL NM...WHICH IS
MAINTAINING UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOCALLY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND
A COOL MIDLEVEL AIRMASS WILL AID IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.
IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS
AND INCREASING IN SPEED TO 70 KT /BASED ON ABX VWP/ IS YIELDING
STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS MAY FAVOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS A BAND OF
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS MOVES FROM W-CNTRL/NWRN NM ACROSS N-CNTRL NM.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR
WEATHER THREATS...BUT A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON 34620497 34180584 34160717 34690772 36530781 36990710
36980585 36560495 35690434 34620497

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121730
SWODY2
SPC AC 121728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH
ACCOMPANYING FASTER FLOW FIELD ALSO SPREADING EWD WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH --
AFFECTING BOTH THE SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PLAINS WITH
TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...TRAILING FROM A SOMEWHAT
ILL-DEFINED LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW/FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

...THE CENTRAL CONUS...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM PROGRESSION --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS -- COMBINING WITH
QUESTIONS REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION TO RESULT IN FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF W TX NEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY.
THIS PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY REGION NEWD -- MAY HINDER APPRECIABLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS -- DESPITE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT...DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK REMAINS IN
QUESTION...SUPPORTING A SWWD SHIFT IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY
THIS FORECAST.

WHILE ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT MORE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AS WELL...HINTS OF POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT --
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...AND A BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT FROM NWRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN N TX
REMAINS POSSIBLE. WHILE DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL STORM MODE
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE UNCERTAIN...THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS.

FARTHER NE...LIKELIHOOD FOR A MORE MOIST ADIABATIC LOWER AND MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE ALONG WITH A MORE VEERED/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FIELD
SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
THIS REGION.

AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT
CORRESPONDING TO THE DIURNALLY STABILIZING AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.

..GOSS.. 10/12/2012

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2034

ACUS11 KWNS 120852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120851
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 120851Z - 121115Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF
AROUND 2 IN/HR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BAND OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY SAG
SWD.

DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS
BAND OF CLOUD TOP COOLING COINCIDING WITH A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING FROM AROUND GAG TO N
OF PNC TO NE OF JLN TO NEAR SGF. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
WITHIN THIS BAND DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIR IS LIFTED ATOP THE FRONTAL SFC. AND...WITH AREA VWP DATA
DEPICTING AOA 25 KT OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
FLOW...TRAINING OF MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE LIKELY.
RAINFALL RATES REACHING AROUND 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PW VALUES
OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES EXTEND INTO THE REGION PER GPS DATA. THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORMS POSING A HEAVY-RAINFALL THREAT MAY
EVENTUALLY SAG SWD IN RESPONSE TO STORM PROPAGATION OVER THE SRN
FLANK OF THE EXPANDING COLD POOL WHERE HIGH THETA-E INFLOW WILL
SUPPORT NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT.

AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND LIMITED
ELEVATED CAPE WILL MINIMIZE ANY SVR THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

..COHEN.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 37809556 37699393 37379280 37019259 36709305 36569473
36429653 36029891 36239953 36619952 37069860 37659682
37809556

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2033

ACUS11 KWNS 120820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120819
AZZ000-121015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120819Z - 121015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN AZ NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS MORE STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION OR INTENSIFICATION.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER ERN AZ
WITHIN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP ASCENT EAST OF SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN CA. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AT ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 5K AND
6K FT SUPPORTING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. FURTHER
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST AND
THIS MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM MODEL
POINT FCST SOUNDINGS...STORMS ARE PROBABLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
WITH 65 KT AT 500 MB...50+ KT EFFECTIVE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
200-250 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY BASED ON OBSERVED STORM
MOTIONS. THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELIHOOD THAT
STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 35960963 35190920 33490979 33591067 35731060 35960963

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2032

ACUS11 KWNS 120819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120819
TXZ000-NMZ000-120945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120819Z - 120945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OTERO...LINCOLN...CHAVES...AND EDDY COUNTIES IN SERN NM. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION
PROGRESSING NNEWD THROUGH S-CNTRL NM /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WITH
STORMS PROBABLY ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP OBSERVED AROUND 770 MB ON THE
00Z MAF SOUNDING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN EML /I.E. 700-500-MB
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C PER KM/ AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
MODES...INCLUDING SPORADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY
HAIL.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE
STORMS...SO THE DURATION OF THE THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. SHOULD
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THIS HAIL THREAT WOULD APPROACH THE NM-TX
STATE LINE AROUND 12Z.

..MEAD.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33730510 34160381 34200324 34050289 33220279 32810273
32490296 32240346 32060420 32110464 32440507 33060525
33730510

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KVEF [120801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120801
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
101 AM PDT FRI OCT 12 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW PAHRUMP 36.19N 116.02W
10/12/2012 M1.36 INCH NYE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER IN PAHRUMP MEASURED 1.36 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE DAY ON OCTOBER 11.


&&

$$

BP

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120722
SWODY3
SPC AC 120720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...OH AND TN VALLEYS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...THE MODELS SUGGEST A DECAYING LINEAR MCS MAY BE ONGOING
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM IL SSWWD INTO THE
OZARKS. AS THIS LINE MOVES EWD AND SFC TEMPS WARM...REGENERATION OF
THE LINE MAY OCCUR OR NEW CELL INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE LINE THAN THE NAM
SUNDAY...CONSENSUS PLACES A LINEAR MCS FROM IND AND OH SSWWD ACROSS
WRN TN INTO NRN MS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SQUALL-LINE SHOULD
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUNDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL-LINE FROM INDIANAPOLIS SSWWD TO NEAR TUPELO MS SHOW MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 35 KT IN THE TN VALLEY TO AROUND
50 KT IN THE OH VALLEY. THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST
WITH THE LINE MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SFC. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COLDER
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES.

..BROYLES.. 10/12/2012

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2031

ACUS11 KWNS 120717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120717
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK THROUGH SCNTRL AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120717Z - 120915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING FROM NRN OK INTO SCNTRL AND SERN KS. STRONGER CELLS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL. WW IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS
THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OR INTENSITY.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO
SWWD THROUGH SERN...NWRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXISTS FROM SRN AR NWWD THROUGH NERN OK. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP /7.5-8 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE MUCAPE /1500-2000 J/KG/ IN WARM SECTOR OVER OK
FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AOB 850 MB. HOWEVER...00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED
THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS CAPPED BY AN
INVERSION AT EML BASE. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF GREATER INSTABILITY
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN KS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD INTO NRN OK THIS MORNING
CONCURRENT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SUBTLE VORT MAX ADVANCING EWD
THROUGH NWRN OK. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT 30-40 KT SWLY
LLJ MIGHT PROMOTE ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO WEAKEN THE
CAP AND FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANY LARGE HAIL THREAT
WOULD BE CONDITIONAL UPON BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E
AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36559922 37729608 37659448 36319486 36009669 35679894
36559922

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120555
SWODY2
SPC AC 120553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...NRN OZARKS...MID MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

...MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY/ERN KS/MO...
A RATHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH A WELL-DEFINED
MOIST AXIS SETTING UP FROM NWRN OK EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL KS
INTO NW MO AND SRN IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S F BY AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING BUT SFC HEATING AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TR0UGH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SCNTRL IA...NRN AND WRN MO AND ERN KS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AT 00Z/SUNDAY FROM DES
MOINES SSWWD ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY METRO AND INTO ERN KS SHOW
MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F.
THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE ALONG WITH
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADOES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES MAY BE THE GREATEST EARLY IN
THE EVENT WHEN SUPERCELLS SHOULD TEND TO BE DISCRETE. AS A LINEAR
MCS ORGANIZES IN THE EARLY EVENING...A TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD OCCUR. AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE
APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM NEAR DES MOINES SWD INTO
SE KS AND SW MO. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AS THE LINEAR MCS PROGRESSES STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.

...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS...
A WELL-ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE SRN
AND CNTRL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH A NARROW
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS EARLY IN THE DAY BUT SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SUGGEST A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS
WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS OK BUT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE FROM FAR SRN OK SWD ACROSS NORTH TX NEAR THE SRN EDGE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LINE OF STORMS IN CNTRL OK SHOULD PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS ERN OK DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY AND
WICHITA FALLS SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTING A
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS.
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD BE THE GREATEST FROM THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO EWD TO
THE AR STATE-LINE WHERE A LINEAR MCS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS ECNTRL OK WHERE A 30
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 10/12/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120538
SWODY1
SPC AC 120535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS WRN KS TO SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN MID-UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY
SOMEWHAT DURING PERIOD...OVER WRN CONUS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE -- NOW LOCATED OVER SRN CA -- MOVES ENEWD FROM
SERN SIERRA REGION. THOUGH THIS CYCLONE IS FCST TO FILL
GRADUALLY...IT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
POSITIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS FROM ITS MOST EQUATORWARD POSITION...AND
REJOINS PREVAILING WLYS ALOFT. PRIMARY 500-MB VORTICITY LOBE SHOULD
MOVE NEWD ACROSS UT DURING MIDDLE OF PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM WRN NEB
TO S-CENTRAL CO AND WRN NM BY 13/12Z.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SERN ONT SWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN
IL AND S-CENTRAL KS TO NRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE. WRN PORTION OF
THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS PANHANDLE AND NERN NM EARLY IN
PERIOD...THEN RETURN NWD AS WARM FRONT OVER NRN OK...OK/NRN TX
PANHANDLES AND SERN CO. HOWEVER...PRECEDING/MORNING CONVECTION MAY
EFFECTIVELY SHUNT FRONT SWD SOMEWHAT OVER OK...TX PANHANDLE AND NERN
NM...DELAYING ITS NWD MOVEMENT THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS. DRYLINE
SHOULD SET UP OVER ERN NM DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP
NWD ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS AREA OVERNIGHT AS MORNING CONVECTIVE AIR
MASS DISSIPATES AND FRONT PROCEEDS NWD OVER WRN/SRN/CENTRAL KS.

...WRN KS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NM ALONG AND
E OF DRYLINE AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. REGIONAL TSTM INITIATION MAY
COMMENCE AS EARLY AS 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME GIVEN FCST OF RELATIVELY
WEAK MLCINH...AND TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING REMOVAL
OF CINH FOR SFC TEMPS MID-70S F IN SOME AREAS AWAY FROM MOUNTAINS.
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS...BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS AND PROGS OF
HIGH RH ALOFT. THIS FACTOR ALSO MAY DELAY OR GRADATE TSTM
INITIATION PROCESSES...DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE CHARACTER OF CLOUD
COVER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE
INCREASING ACROSS TX/NM BORDER REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL..INCLUDING RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SVR CLUSTERED OR
BOWING STORM MODES. FOR THOSE CELLS THAT STILL ARE RELATIVELY
DISCRETE DURING 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE.
THIS WOULD BE DURING TEMPORAL OVERLAP OF TWO PROCESSES...
1. STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT FAVORABLY ENLARGES LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH...BOOSTING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES PAST 200 J/KG...AND
2. PRECONVECTIVE/EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF
DRYLINE REMAINING SFC-BASED...EVEN WITH VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
EARLY-STAGE DIABATIC COOLING.

UPSCALE GROWTH OF NNE-SSW ALIGNED CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD OCCUR
DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS -- 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME -- WITH
CONVECTION SHIFTING EWD AND PERHAPS GROWING NEWD INTO ENLARGING KS
WARM SECTOR. SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE MAIN
CONCERNS AFTER ABOUT 06Z...WITH SVR THREAT DIMINISHING TOWARD
NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY MIN NEAR END OF PERIOD.

...S-CENTRAL ROCKIES...
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS MAY EXTEND NWWD
FROM MAIN SVR RISK AREA ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND ADJOINING BASINS OF NRN
NM AND SRN CO. MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE LIMITED
IN THIS REGION THAN FARTHER E. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT/SHEAR WITH TIME WILL SUPPORT MRGL/CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT
PRIMARILY WITH MID-LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS N OF I-70 TO PORTIONS SRN MN/IA...
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT REGIME WILL SPREAD
NEWD RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING LIKEWISE SHIFT IN ELEVATED THETAE LAYER
SUPPORTING MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN 35-45 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING A FEW
SPORADICALLY WELL-ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS.

..EDWARDS/DEAN.. 10/12/2012

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KVEF [120513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120513
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1012 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LAS VEGAS 36.17N 115.16W
10/11/2012 CLARK NV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

RAMP FROM I 15 NORTH TO US 95 NORTH IS CLOSED DUE TO 6 TO
12 INCHES OF WATER ON THE ROADWAY.

0925 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 NE LAS VEGAS 36.24N 115.09W
10/11/2012 CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

OVER 6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING DOWN CRAIG ROAD


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [120448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120448
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0939 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 E LAS VEGAS 36.16N 115.09W
10/11/2012 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER WITH ROCKS AND DEBRIS AT
GILMORE AND EL CAPITAN.


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [120434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120434
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
934 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM FLASH FLOOD 22 W SHOSHONE 35.90N 116.66W
10/11/2012 INYO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHP REPORTS BADWATER RD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.


0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 ENE LAS VEGAS 36.19N 115.08W
10/11/2012 CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

8 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING DOWN THE CENTER OF OWENS AVE.


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [120415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120415
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM HAIL 5 NNW LAS VEGAS 36.25N 115.18W
10/11/2012 E0.88 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0912 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 N LAS VEGAS 36.24N 115.16W
10/11/2012 M1.81 INCH CLARK NV MESONET

A STORM TOTAL OF 1.81 INCHES WAS MEASURED AT AN AUTOMATED
RAIN GAUGE NEAR CAMINO EL NORTE AND CRAIG ROAD IN NORTH
LAS VEGAS SINCE 3 PM ON 10/10/12. 0.94 INCH FELL IN 30
MINUTES FROM 840 PM TO 910 PM ON 10/11/12.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [120401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120401
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
901 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM HAIL 3 SSE GREEN VALLEY 36.02N 115.05W
10/11/2012 E0.88 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZED HAIL FELL FROM 2030 TO 2035.


&&

$$

METZGER

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KVEF [120400]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 120400
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM HAIL 4 NE GREEN VALLEY 36.09N 115.03W
10/11/2012 E1.00 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON HOLLYWOOD
BOULEVARD IN EAST LAS VEGAS. THE WINDSHIELD ON ONE CAR
WAS CRACKED.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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