MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2034

ACUS11 KWNS 120852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120851
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 120851Z - 121115Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF
AROUND 2 IN/HR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BAND OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY SAG
SWD.

DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS
BAND OF CLOUD TOP COOLING COINCIDING WITH A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING FROM AROUND GAG TO N
OF PNC TO NE OF JLN TO NEAR SGF. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
WITHIN THIS BAND DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIR IS LIFTED ATOP THE FRONTAL SFC. AND...WITH AREA VWP DATA
DEPICTING AOA 25 KT OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
FLOW...TRAINING OF MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE LIKELY.
RAINFALL RATES REACHING AROUND 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PW VALUES
OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES EXTEND INTO THE REGION PER GPS DATA. THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORMS POSING A HEAVY-RAINFALL THREAT MAY
EVENTUALLY SAG SWD IN RESPONSE TO STORM PROPAGATION OVER THE SRN
FLANK OF THE EXPANDING COLD POOL WHERE HIGH THETA-E INFLOW WILL
SUPPORT NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT.

AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND LIMITED
ELEVATED CAPE WILL MINIMIZE ANY SVR THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

..COHEN.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 37809556 37699393 37379280 37019259 36709305 36569473
36429653 36029891 36239953 36619952 37069860 37659682
37809556

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