Wednesday, May 2, 2007

WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 216

WWUS20 KWNS 030347
SEL6
SPC WW 030347
TXZ000-CWZ000-031100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1045 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PALACIOS TEXAS TO 105 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALICE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 212...WW 214...WW 215...

DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING SEWD FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. REGION WILL BE GLANCED BY 40+ KT
WLY MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF NEG TILT W TX TROUGH. COUPLED
WITH VERY RICH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW...CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO POSE A CONTINUING THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


..CORFIDI

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KHGX [030344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 030344
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1043 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 PM TSTM WND DMG COLLEGE STATION 30.60N 96.31W
05/02/2007 BRAZOS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON LANGFORD STREET IN COLLEGE STATION

1010 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 SW NORMANGEE 30.96N 96.20W
05/02/2007 MADISON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON OSR AT FM 1452 IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE COUNTY


&&

$$

MORELAND

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KEWX [030314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 030314
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1013 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 PM HAIL 1 N DILLEY 28.68N 99.17W
05/02/2007 M0.88 INCH FRIO TX CO-OP OBSERVER

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED.


&&

$$

PM

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KFWD [030306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 030306
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1006 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG GRAND PRAIRIE 32.69N 97.02W
05/02/2007 DALLAS TX PUBLIC

FENCES BLOWN DOWN AND DAMAGE TO SEVERAL ROOFS ON HOMES.
NUMEROUS SHINGLES MISSING AND WINDOWS BROKEN BY FLYING
DEBRIS

$$

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KAMA [030304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 030304
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1004 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0931 PM FLASH FLOOD AMARILLO 35.20N 101.82W
05/02/2007 POTTER TX PUBLIC

CURB TO CURB FLOODING AT CROCKETT AND 42ND

&&

$$

KJS

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KAMA [030303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 030303
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1003 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 PM FLASH FLOOD AMARILLO 35.20N 101.82W
05/02/2007 POTTER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT THAT AMARILLO POLICE DEPARTMENT ARE SHUTTING
DOWN BOTH THE EAST AND WEST BOUND LANES OF I-40 AND
WASHINGTON UNDERPASS AND ARE RE-ROUTING TRAFFIC.

&&

$$

KJS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0658

ACUS11 KWNS 030257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030257
TXZ000-030400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST AND SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 030257Z - 030400Z

NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPR TX COAST
SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL TX.

00Z UPR AIR ANALYSIS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WEAK LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL AFFECT MOST OF TX NORTH OF KLRD-KCRP
OVERNIGHT...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW MIGRATING ACROSS
CNTRL TX. COLD POOL HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
INTO THE WRN COASTAL PLAIN FROM COLLEGE STATION SWWD TO NEAR KSAT.
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND THE LIFT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...ENHANCED BY THE NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ...WILL LIKELY BE
IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVERNIGHT. H5 FLOW OF 40-45 KTS WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS... EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGELY LINEAR MCS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW WEAK LOW-LEVEL
TURNING...BUT THE INHIBITION IN THE INFLOW LAYER MIGHT MITIGATE
TORNADO POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE VICTORIA AREA.
HERE...DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FARTHER S...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORMS TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE LATITUDE
OF KCRP-KCOT.

.RACY.. 05/03/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

27799870 30929486 31079362 29739394 27479788

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 213

WWUS20 KWNS 030248
SEL3
SPC WW 030248
TXZ000-030600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
948 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 213 ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

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KSHV [030227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 030227
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
927 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0916 PM HAIL TYLER 32.33N 95.30W
05/02/2007 M0.75 INCH SMITH TX TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED IN SOUTHWEST TYLER


&&

$$

BR

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KFWD [030110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 030110
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 PM TSTM WND DMG DUNCANVILLE 32.65N 96.91W
05/02/2007 DALLAS TX PUBLIC

LARGE LIMBS DOWN ESTIMATED AT 5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

$$

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KFWD [030059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 030059
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
759 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG GRAPEVINE 32.93N 97.07W
05/02/2007 TARRANT TX NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN GRAPEVINE

$$

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KFWD [030016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 030016
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM FLASH FLOOD FORT WORTH 32.75N 97.34W
05/02/2007 TARRANT TX NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER 8-10 INCHES DEEP ON INSIDE LANE OF I-30 NEAR HULEN
IN FORT WORTH

$$

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KFWD [030013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 030013
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG BEDFORD 32.85N 97.13W
05/02/2007 TARRANT TX PUBLIC

LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN BEDFORD

$$

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KHNX [022355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 022355
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
455 PM PDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1251 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PIUTES RAWS 35.45N 118.28W
05/02/2007 M46.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0213 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAW 35.69N 117.89W
05/02/2007 M57.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0256 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE RIDGECREST 35.65N 117.64W
05/02/2007 M49.00 MPH KERN CA ASOS

MEASURED AT THE CHINA LAKE NAS /KNID/.

0256 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WALKER PASS RAWS 35.67N 118.06W
05/02/2007 M49.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0414 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 N MOJAVE 35.20N 118.18W
05/02/2007 M53.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT JAWBONE MESONETSITE.

0432 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 WNW INYOKERN 35.70N 117.98W
05/02/2007 M64.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE CLASS III-16C RAWS SITE.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 213

WWUS20 KWNS 022355
SEL3
SPC WW 022355
TXZ000-030600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY OF WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF FORT
STOCKTON TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 209. WATCH NUMBER 209 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
655 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 210...WW 211...WW 212...

DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE
STORMS IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND W OF THE PECOS VLY OF W TX
THIS EVENING. CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF SRN NM UPR LOW AND
ASSOCIATED 50 KT MID LEVEL WLY SPEED MAX WILL MAINTAIN FORCING/DEEP
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.


..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0654

ACUS11 KWNS 022354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022354 COR
TXZ000-OKZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211...

VALID 022354Z - 030115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 211 CONTINUES.

A FEW COUNTIES IN NCNTRL TX HAVE BEEN ADDED TO TORNADO WATCH 211.

AN OLD FRONT...LEFT IN WAKE OF THE UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OZARKS
TODAY...WAS LOCATED VCNTY DFW METROPLEX NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AT
23Z. STRONGEST TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER W TX EARLY IN THE DAY HAVE
FAVORED THIS FRONT AND A WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO HAS MATURED JUST S
OF THE METROPLEX...MOVING EWD AT 45 KTS. NRN EDGE OF THIS BOW
ECHO...OVER THE IMMEDIATE METROPLEX...HAS INTENSIFIED AMIDST A
CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ENEWD
ALONG/N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT INTO PARTS OF NCNTRL TX THROUGH
EARLY EVE. ERN EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT
GIVEN UPR RIDGING IN WAKE OF THE OZARKS IMPULSE...IT APPEARS THAT
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION.

.RACY.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

30899864 33059927 34209708 33759476 30779522 30399771

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KJKL [022351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 022351
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG SALYERSVILLE 37.75N 83.06W
05/02/2007 MAGOFFIN KY COUNTY OFFICIAL

ONE TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 7 IN SALYERSVILLE NEAR THE HIGH
SCHOOL.


&&

$$

ARICHEY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0653

ACUS11 KWNS 022306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022305
TXZ000-NMZ000-030030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210...

VALID 022305Z - 030030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210
CONTINUES.

AIR MASS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT
IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY TSTMS. ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
SPREADING EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE W TX UPPER LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
FAVORABLE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.

VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY BANKED UP AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS IN CULBERSON...JEFF-DAVIS...PRESIDO AND BREWSTER
COUNTIES. MOIST ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LATE AFTN HEATING IN WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS
REGION/PERMIAN BASIN REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS STRONGEST ALONG/S OF THE PECOS RVR WHERE 45
KT H5 FLOW EXISTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPR LOW. BULK SHEAR DROPS
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AT LATITUDES FARTHER N...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL COMPENSATE AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER S... SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT IN THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS...AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VCNTY THE FRONT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVE...WITH STRONGEST STORMS
FAVORING AREAS NEAR/S OF A PECOS-FORT STOCKTON LINE/STOCKTON PLATEAU
REGION.

.RACY.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31750628 34220619 34810373 31930059 30040211 29420387

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KTFX [022250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 022250
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 PM MDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HEAVY RAIN 14 W CARTER 47.78N 111.26W
05/02/2007 M0.45 INCH CHOUTEAU MT ASOS

0.45 INCH RAIN IN 15 MINUTES...ALSO REPORTED 41 MPH PEAK
GUST AND 0.25 INCH HAIL


&&

$$

MPJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0651

ACUS11 KWNS 022208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022208
TXZ000-022315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CNTRL AND SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 022208Z - 022315Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AND SRN TX
BY EARLY THIS EVE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CORE OF THE UPR LOW SPINNING EWD INTO
FAR W TX LATE THIS AFTN. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-45 KTS WAS
OBSERVED ALONG THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AT THE DEL RIO VWP...WITH
FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION SUPPORTING STRONG-SVR TSTMS OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS JETLET WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO CNTRL/SRN TX.

DESPITE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING TODAY OWING TO A CANOPY
OF STRATOCUMULUS...AIR MASS HAS REMAINED VERY MOIST BENEATH 7-8 DEG
C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ALOFT. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO
2500 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS. 18Z DRT SOUNDING
SUGGESTED A STOUT CAP EXISTS AND CONFIRMS THE MODEL DEPICTION OF
WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LATITUDE OF ABOUT
KDRT-KCRP. THUS...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
STRONG-SVR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS SCNTRL TX/HILL COUNTRY REGION
THROUGH MID-EVENING.

GIVEN AN INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY
FLOW ALOFT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION. DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AS WELL.

.RACY.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

29010064 30869787 30479652 29549654 28589815 28110019

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KFWD [022152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 022152
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM TSTM WND DMG GOLDTHWAITE 31.45N 98.57W
05/02/2007 MILLS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...TIME ESTIMATED

$$

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KVEF [022144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 022144
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
244 PM PDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N ASPENDELL 37.25N 118.58W
05/02/2007 M50 MPH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BFUIS

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KVEF [022133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 022133
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
233 PM PDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SE BAKER 35.21N 116.00W
05/02/2007 M41 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

1256 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DAGGETT 34.86N 116.88W
05/02/2007 M46 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS


&&

$$

BFUIS

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KSJT [022131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 022131
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
431 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N BROWNWOOD 31.81N 98.99W
05/02/2007 M58 MPH BROWN TX AMATEUR RADIO

MEASURED BY THE AWOS


&&

$$

LHIESLER

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KAKQ [022118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 022118
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
518 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL AYLETT 37.77N 77.12W
05/02/2007 E0.75 INCH KING WILLIAM VA BROADCAST MEDIA

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

RCURRY

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KSJT [022048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 022048
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM TSTM WND GST BROOKESMITH 31.55N 99.12W
05/02/2007 E60 MPH BROWN TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0649

ACUS11 KWNS 022008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022008
TXZ000-022145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE BIG BEND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 209...

VALID 022008Z - 022145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 209 CONTINUES.

IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS TAKEN ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT. AND...STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION. NEW CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER... WHERE
LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND SUPPORTIVE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 4000 J/KG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
AROUND 70F...BUT SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION REMAINS.

WITH SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHENING AS 40+ KT 500 MB JET NOSES JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND...SUPERCELLS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. INCREASING 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE
BECOMING EVIDENT ALONG LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY INTO THE DEL RIO AREA. AND...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RISK FOR TORNADOES
AS STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BETWEEN NOW AND 03/00Z.

.KERR.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...

28680172 29310178 29740209 30080160 30010093 29659986
29689922 28889907 28339959 28360027 28410120

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KAKQ [022002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 022002
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM TSTM WND DMG BURRUSS CORNER 37.89N 77.42W
05/02/2007 CAROLINE VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SMALL TREES DOWN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CAROLINE COUNTY...IN AND AROUND BURRUSS CORNER.


&&

$$

MONTEFUSCO

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KSJT [021849]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 021849
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
149 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0108 PM TSTM WND DMG WATER VALLEY 31.67N 100.72W
05/02/2007 TOM GREEN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOFS BLOWN OFF HOUSES.


&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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KIWX [021826]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 021826
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
226 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NE ANGOLA 41.70N 84.92W
05/01/2007 STEUBEN IN EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO 35-40 FOOT TALL PINE TREES UPROOTED, 12 X 15 BARN
DOOR BLOWN OFF, CORN CRIB BLOWN IN


&&

$$

BJS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 209

WWUS20 KWNS 021750
SEL9
SPC WW 021750
TXZ000-030100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 30 MILES WEST OF DEL RIO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...

DISCUSSION...ONGOING SEVERE MCS OVER SWRN TX EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER DURING AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS ACROSS WATCH AREA WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.


..HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0647

ACUS11 KWNS 021745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021745 COR
TXZ000-021845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...

VALID 021745Z - 021845Z

CORRECTED FOR WW NUMBER IN SECOND LINE.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208
CONTINUES.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING ISSUED INCLUDING AREAS EAST OF WW 208.

EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOW EAST/
SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT TOWARD ABILENE...SAN ANGELO AND AREAS
NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO. SURFACE COLD SURGE IS ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AND MAY BE ADVANCING A BIT
AHEAD OF INTENSE LEADING LINE OF STORMS. LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT MOST VIGOROUS RECENT DEVELOPMENT IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF SAN ANGELO...ALONG INTERSECTION OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LINGERING COLD POCKET ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. THIS COLD POCKET PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH 20-21Z...BUT THE AIR MASS IS
VERY MOIST...AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER MAY FINALLY ALLOW FOR
INCREASING SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...INTO THE
ABILENE AND BROWNWOOD AREAS HAS BEEN ABLE TO WARM/DESTABILIZATION
..AND OFFERS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOST VIGOROUS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER.

.KERR.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

32550034 32569868 31729802 31049850 30339857 29229880
28839980 28690067 29300149 29890189 30280243 31000192
31220120

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KSJT [021737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 021737
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM TORNADO 13 WSW STERLING CITY 31.74N 101.18W
05/02/2007 STERLING TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO


&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021716
SWODY2
SPC AC 021715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX....

..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND
130W WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING SEWD ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE FROM 45N THROUGH 35N. IN ADDITION...THE IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS DUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SCENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL BE EJECTED ENEWD THE NEXT 48 HRS WEAKENING
THE MO VALLEY TROUGH AND MOVING THE SWRN TX ONE EWD TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE
NWRN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EWD COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. BY 4/00Z.

..PARTS OF ERN TX...

MODELS TRACK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SWRN NM EWD INTO
N CENTRAL TX BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EWD ACROSS NRN LA THU
NIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN -10C AND
-14C. THUS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT
PRESENT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG EARLY IN THE DAY. ANALYSIS
OF MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOWS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING MULTICELL-TYPE
STORMS AND ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRYING THAT SOME PROBABILITIES MUST BE
PRESENTED FOR THE THREAT OF MICROBURSTS/HAIL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

..PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE MORE THAT ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT
MAX/TROUGH WILL MOVE NNEWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
ERN MT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FROM WRN
WY INTO NERN MT WITH A SECONDARY LOW /DENVER CYCLONE/ AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WRN ND/WRN SD INTO NERN CO
BY EARLY THU NIGHT. THERE IS A QUESTION TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TX
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS ALSO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.

GIVEN THE INDICATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INCREASING PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME THINKING THAT
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONT AND
THAT THE STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DRY
MICROBURSTS AND HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.MCCARTHY.. 05/02/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0646

ACUS11 KWNS 021707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021707
TXZ000-NMZ000-021900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN NEW MEXICO INTO SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021707Z - 021900Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE SHORTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO. BUT...BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE A
WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

COLD CORE OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AND...500 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -16C...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 60S...ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC
FORCING...INITIATION OF STORMS IS UNDERWAY.

ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER IS GENERALLY
WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN INTENSIFYING
STORMS SHORTLY. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT... HOWEVER...MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY MARGINAL...UNTIL LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO/EAST OF THE ROSWELL/ARTESIA/CARLSBAD
AREAS AROUND 20-21Z. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION BY THAT
TIME...WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.KERR.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

34520852 34920756 34870619 33860424 32610353 31850319
30800346 30180451 31280546 31820592 31960644 31940718
32150809 33170845

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021619
SWODY1
SPC AC 021616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS A LARGE PART OF TEXAS EXCLUDING
THE PANHANDLE...

..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LATE SPRING TROUGH MOVING INLAND WRN U.S. DRIVING THE
WEAKER SRN BRANCH S/WV EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NERN U.S.

SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING WSWWD FROM DELMARVA TO VICINITY OH
RIVER TO WEAK SURFACE LOW VICINITY CENTRAL OK.

..TEXAS...
ONGOING SEVERE STORMS SWRN TX IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF SHEAR
AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OF APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH OVER NM AND
THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING ACROSS MUCH
OF SRN AND SWRN TX.

MORNING INHIBITION NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX WILL
WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO 2000 J/KG CENTRAL
AND UP TO 3000 J/KG SRN TX. RESULT WILL BE THAT BY MID
AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL TO SWRN TX. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL BE VICINITY BOTH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
CENTRAL TX FROM TUE ACTIVITY AND BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY CURRENT
ACTIVITY MOVING E/SE FROM SWRN TX,

IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...THE 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COUPLED WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

BY EARLY TONIGHT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GENERATION OF A COLD POOL
WITH CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE. THIS WILL
THEN INCREASE RISK OF A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE EVENT AS THE
SHEAR/CAPE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE ALL THE WAY TO THE TX COAST
BY 12Z THU.

CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO A MDT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY OF
THE MODE AND TIMING OF A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT ATTM WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG SLIGHT RISK.

..WY/MT...
MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO WY AND MT IN
ADVANCE OF BOTH COLD FRONT ALONG ID/OR BORDER AND THE MAJOR COLD
TROUGH. HEATING AND AVAILABLE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500 J/KG DURING AFTERNOON WRY WY INTO MT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS SAME AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY IN STRONG STORMS GIVEN 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
AREA.

..SERN VA/NERN NC...

REF MCD 645

FRONT SAGGING SWD THRU VA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING COUPLED
WITH 25-35KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL BE NEAR 1000
J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...A COUPLE LIKELY SEVERE. AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
RISK.

.HALES/LEVIT.. 05/02/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0645

ACUS11 KWNS 021547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021547
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-021715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN VA INTO THE SRN DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021547Z - 021715Z

THE AIR MASS IS NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...BUT STRONG HEATING IS WELL
UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AND...THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THE FRONT HAS
ADVANCED THROUGH WASHINGTON D.C. AND MUCH OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...BUT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INHIBITION IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG.
INITIATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY 17-18Z...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THEREAFTER...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA.

AS PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F...AND A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AS CONVECTION SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL..DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW/SHEAR.

.KERR.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

38357989 38617853 38647754 38347673 38267593 37607561
36897631 36857718 36877762 37007879 36988054 37838123

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0644

ACUS11 KWNS 021511
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021511
TXZ000-021645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CNTRL/SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...

VALID 021511Z - 021645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208
CONTINUES.

ONGOING INTENSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO NEAR/EAST OF
MIDLAND...AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AROUND 20 KT. IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT EASTERLY STORM RELATIVE INFLOW OF COOLER/POTENTIALLY LESS
UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY
AS IT SPREADS TOWARD AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF SAN ANGELO/ABILENE THROUGH
18-19Z.

STRONGER INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AND...
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MAY TEND TO SUPPORT A
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FORT STOCKTON AREA...TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MODERATE
TO STRONG CAPE...RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG... WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN FLOW REGIME WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. STRONG DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.

.KERR.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30620367 31170326 31480299 31620233 32130201 32470143
32410057 31290072 30760103 30360169 29930201 29530271
29480336 29910362

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KMFR [021503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 021503
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
803 AM PDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW BANDON 43.09N 124.43W
05/02/2007 M2.94 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8AM WEDNESDAY.


&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021252
SWODY1
SPC AC 021249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS A LARGE PART OF TX...

..TX...
MODELS VERY SIMILAR IN TAKING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER AT 12Z EWD INTO WRN TX BY THIS EVENING AND OVER CENTRAL OK/TX
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX TODAY AND TONIGHT. ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT REINFORCED BY
SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT MOST LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM E-CENTRAL/NERN TX
WSWWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-20 INTO SWRN TX AS FORECAST BY 09Z RUC.
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 68F SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.

VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS S-CENTRAL
AND WEST TX...AS EVIDENCED BY MORNING SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF
STRONG EML AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RUC AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MLCAPE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND SUPERCELLS ACROSS MOST OF
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET /ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH/ OVERSPREADS THE RIO GRANDE AND CENTRAL TX BY
LATER TODAY.

ONGOING CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS/MCS NOW OVER FAR SERN NM WILL
ILKLEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND BUILD SLOWLY SWD INTO SWRN/W-CENTRAL
TX THIS MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND MAF 12Z SOUNDING INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS LATER THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS ROOT INTO A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INVOF
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS CAP BREAKS AND AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD FROM A MYRIAD OF
STORM TYPES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS/BOW
ECHOES. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING...WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WIND DAMAGE MAY
ALSO BECOME LIKELY AND POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE
INTO BOWING SEGMENTS AND SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND REMAIN FED BY A VERY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED AIR MASS
OVER S/SERN TX. THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK TODAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS STILL EXPECTED GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE LOCAL
SRH.

.EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/02/2007

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KJAX [021251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021251
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
851 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM WILDFIRE GLEN ST. MARY 30.27N 82.16W
05/01/2007 BAKER FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

4 ACRE WILDFIRE NEAR GLEN ST MARY. REPORTED IN STATE
WARNING POINT DAILY SUMMARY FOR WED 5/1.


&&

$$

JHESS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0643

ACUS11 KWNS 021241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021240
TXZ000-NMZ000-021445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/W-CENTRAL TX...SMALL PART OF EXTREME
SERN NM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021240Z - 021445Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THIS
REGION...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT
DIABATICALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES AIR MASS IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR.

AT 12Z...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW BETWEEN FST-GDP...WITH WARM
FRONT ESEWD BETWEEN FST-INK TO VICINITY UVA AND SAT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT/MIX NWD ACROSS I-10 DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MEANWHILE...SFC HEATING SHOULD ERODE WEAK CAP EVIDENT IN MAF RAOB
FROM WNW-ESE...WITH STRONGER CINH EVIDENT AROUND DRT. EVEN THOUGH N
OF WARM FRONT...SHALLOW CHARACTER OF STABLE LAYER IN MAF RAOB
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALONG SRN EDGE
OF EXISTING COMPLEX TO REACH SFC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
SWD TOWARD WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND INTO WARM SECTOR THROUGH FORENOON
HOURS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPS HEATING INTO 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING BY 15Z...AND
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG BY 17Z ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER
SW TX. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS MAY REMAIN WEAK...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35 KT NEAR INK -- INCREASING SWD TO AROUND 50 KT NEAR RIO
GRANDE...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO POTENTIAL.

REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 642 FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER NRN PART
OF THIS AREA.

.EDWARDS.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30540314 31320380 31730378 31890363 32100325 32130278
32130208 31840156 31460126 31010079 30520052 29980054
29440096

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KIWX [021239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 021239
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
839 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 2 SW COLDWATER 41.92N 85.03W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH BRANCH MI STORM CHASER


&&

$$

BJS

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KJAX [021225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021225
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
825 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 AM WILDFIRE 5 SW FLAGLER BEACH 29.42N 81.19W
05/02/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

700 ACRE WILDFIRE IN SOUTHEAST FLAGLER COUNTY. LOCALLY
DENSE SMOKE IN SOME AREAS.


&&

$$

JHESS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0642

ACUS11 KWNS 021219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021219
TXZ000-NMZ000-021445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NM AND W TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 021219Z - 021445Z

SRN PORTION OF COMPLEX CONTAINING NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
POSE HAZARD FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR AS IT MOVES EWD
THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
STG GUSTS ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX WHERE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE WELL-ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL IN AND
NEAR THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIDMORNING ONWARD...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MORE VIGOROUS DIABATIC HEATING S OF THIS COMPLEX
AND INVOF WARM FRONT. THAT MAY REQUIRE SEPARATE DISCUSSION WITHIN
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MEANWHILE PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. MERGING/TRAINING OF CORES WILL ENHANCE THIS PROBLEM.

DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 12Z FROM BETWEEN
FST-GDP...ESEWD NEAR FST...TO BETWEEN DRT-UVA...AND SHOULD DRIFT/MIX
NWD THROUGH LATE MORNING. RICH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY
EVIDENT IN 12Z MAF RAOB LAUNCHED JUST N OF WARM FRONT -- WITH ALMOST
1.25 INCH PW...850 MB DEW POINT AROUND 12 C...AND MEAN MIXING RATIO
APPROXIMATELY 11 G/KG. 25-35 KT ABSOLUTE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN
LOW LEVEL ABOVE SFC...AS ISALLOBARIC/ISALLOHYPSIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH APCHG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSETS DIURNAL TENDENCY FOR COUPLING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WEAKEN LLJ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE WINDS AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
INFLOW LAYER. LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SWATH OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE/ASCENT IN THIS REGION...SUPPORTING
EWD SHIFT OF CONVECTION FROM SERN NM ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS W TX.

ALSO REF NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIP ESTIMATES UNDER WMO HEADER TXUS20
KNES FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

.EDWARDS.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

31670392 32400435 33000400 33290377 33470353 33510311
33460242 33180198 32660174 31670195 31540306

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020849
SWOD48
SPC AC 020848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 /SUN/ AS
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND UPSTREAM WRN U.S TROUGH
EVOLVES INTO CLOSED LOW CUT-OFF FROM NRN STREAM. THIS UPPER PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR ALONG
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 /SAT AND SUN/.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF WRN CLOSED
LOW...AND THUS STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS REGION...
PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA.

BEYOND DAY 5...MODELS DIFFER IN THE EJECTION AND ORIENTATION OF WRN
CLOSED LOW AS IT BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. THUS...WILL ALSO NOT INTRODUCE ANY REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREAS BEYOND DAY 5.

.PETERS.. 05/02/2007

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KCLE [020846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 020846
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
446 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL WHITEHOUSE 41.52N 83.80W
05/01/2007 E1.25 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0350 PM HAIL LUCKEY 41.45N 83.48W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH WOOD OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM HAIL 1 W GIBSONBURG 41.39N 83.34W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0424 PM HAIL FREMONT 41.35N 83.11W
05/01/2007 E1.25 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0503 PM HAIL HOLLAND 41.62N 83.71W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH LUCAS OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0511 PM HAIL HOLLAND 41.62N 83.71W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH LUCAS OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

0525 PM HAIL CLYDE 41.31N 82.98W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0544 PM HAIL CLYDE 41.31N 82.98W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH SANDUSKY OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0550 PM HAIL POLK 40.95N 82.21W
05/01/2007 E1.25 INCH ASHLAND OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM HAIL 3 SW CONGRESS 40.90N 82.10W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH WAYNE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 PM HAIL 2 N FOSTORIA 41.19N 83.41W
05/01/2007 E1.75 INCH SENECA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM HAIL POLK 40.95N 82.21W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH ASHLAND OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0710 PM HAIL TIFFIN 41.12N 83.18W
05/01/2007 E0.88 INCH SENECA OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0716 PM HAIL AURORA 41.31N 81.34W
05/01/2007 E0.75 INCH PORTAGE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0732 PM HAIL 2 N MANTUA 41.31N 81.22W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH PORTAGE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N POLK 40.97N 82.21W
05/01/2007 ASHLAND OH TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN

0800 PM HAIL 2 N POLK 40.97N 82.21W
05/01/2007 E1.00 INCH ASHLAND OH TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KUBINA

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020725
SWODY3
SPC AC 020723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 3 WITH INDICATION OF WRN U.S. LONGWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION...AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE DIGS SE TOWARD LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE STRENGTHENS FROM MS RIVER VALLEY
TO HUDSON BAY. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND REACH THE DAKOTAS/MN BY 12Z SATURDAY.

NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING THE DRY LINE TOO QUICKLY EWD ON
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THROUGH
THE PLAINS BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AXIS OF AT
LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG/E OF DRY LINE...WHILE
STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

A CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL
NEB/SD WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS SLY LLJ. THIS
JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORNING TSTMS
GENERALLY WEAKENING. NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ALONG DRY
LINE WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR AS ASCENT SPREADS NEWD
WITH FOUR CORNERS IMPULSE. LLJ RE-STRENGTHENING FRIDAY EVENING
SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTM CLUSTERS...SOME
SEVERE...NE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.PETERS.. 05/02/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020542
SWODY2
SPC AC 020541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER INLAND ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS
RISE OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERIES OF THIS TROUGH. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO WY BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.

FARTHER EAST...SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED AS
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TO HUDSON BAY. MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT DIFFER
WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE WEAKENS DURING DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD.

..PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX TO WRN LA...
AT 12Z THURSDAY...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS...POTENTIAL MCS...SHOULD BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX WITH MODELS SUGGESTING CLOUDINESS
FROM THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN TX AND LIMITING
THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS 500 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM IN WAKE OF PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE. THUS...
INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK WHERE STRONGEST ASCENT
AHEAD OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN TX INTO LA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25
KT SHOULD RESULT IN MULTICELLS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND MODEL DIVERGENCE IN WEAKENING OF
SRN STREAM SYSTEM...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX TO WRN LA.

..NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ASCENT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING GREAT BASIN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MT
SWD TO NERN CO. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL TEND TO RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY...WITH TSTMS BEING HIGH BASED. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE
COVERAGE...AND THUS MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS
OUTLOOK.

STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING
IS EXPECTED TO AID DEVELOPMENT OF TSTM CLUSTER EWD ACROSS WRN PARTS
OF DAKOTAS/NEB WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES ATOP LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

.PETERS.. 05/02/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 207

WWUS20 KWNS 020403
SEL7
SPC WW 020403
TXZ000-020400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207 ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

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