SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021707
TXZ000-NMZ000-021900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN NEW MEXICO INTO SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021707Z - 021900Z
A SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE SHORTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO. BUT...BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE A
WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
COLD CORE OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AND...500 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -16C...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 60S...ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC
FORCING...INITIATION OF STORMS IS UNDERWAY.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER IS GENERALLY
WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN INTENSIFYING
STORMS SHORTLY. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT... HOWEVER...MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY MARGINAL...UNTIL LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO/EAST OF THE ROSWELL/ARTESIA/CARLSBAD
AREAS AROUND 20-21Z. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION BY THAT
TIME...WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
.KERR.. 05/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
34520852 34920756 34870619 33860424 32610353 31850319
30800346 30180451 31280546 31820592 31960644 31940718
32150809 33170845
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