SWODY2
SPC AC 021715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX....
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND
130W WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING SEWD ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE FROM 45N THROUGH 35N. IN ADDITION...THE IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS DUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SCENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL BE EJECTED ENEWD THE NEXT 48 HRS WEAKENING
THE MO VALLEY TROUGH AND MOVING THE SWRN TX ONE EWD TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS THE
NWRN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EWD COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. BY 4/00Z.
..PARTS OF ERN TX...
MODELS TRACK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SWRN NM EWD INTO
N CENTRAL TX BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EWD ACROSS NRN LA THU
NIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN -10C AND
-14C. THUS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT
PRESENT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG EARLY IN THE DAY. ANALYSIS
OF MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOWS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING MULTICELL-TYPE
STORMS AND ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRYING THAT SOME PROBABILITIES MUST BE
PRESENTED FOR THE THREAT OF MICROBURSTS/HAIL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
..PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE MORE THAT ANOTHER EMBEDDED VORT
MAX/TROUGH WILL MOVE NNEWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
ERN MT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FROM WRN
WY INTO NERN MT WITH A SECONDARY LOW /DENVER CYCLONE/ AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WRN ND/WRN SD INTO NERN CO
BY EARLY THU NIGHT. THERE IS A QUESTION TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TX
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS ALSO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.
GIVEN THE INDICATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INCREASING PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME THINKING THAT
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONT AND
THAT THE STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DRY
MICROBURSTS AND HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.MCCARTHY.. 05/02/2007
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