Sunday, February 1, 2009

KFWD [020450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020450
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM HAIL TUCKER 31.67N 95.75W
02/01/2009 E0.75 INCH ANDERSON TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TUCKER VFD REPORTED PENNY HAIL.

$$

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KFWD [020449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020449
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1049 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1023 PM HAIL 10 N PALESTINE 31.90N 95.65W
02/01/2009 E1.00 INCH ANDERSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT ACR441 WEST OF FM315

$$

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KFWD [020447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020447
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1046 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM HAIL 2 SE OAKWOOD 31.56N 95.82W
02/01/2009 E1.75 INCH LEON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LEON S.O. RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL HAIL NEAR OAKWOOD

$$

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KFWD [020440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020440
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1040 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1026 PM HAIL 11 NNE PALESTINE 31.90N 95.57W
02/01/2009 M0.88 INCH ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKEL HAIL AT ELMWOOD FIRE STATION

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0062

ACUS11 KWNS 020431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020430
LAZ000-TXZ000-020600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF ERN/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020430Z - 020600Z

LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE THE AXIS OF STRONGER
AFTERNOON HEATING OCCURRED. AS A RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF ONGOING STORMS NEAR THE FRONT APPEARS UNLIKELY.
BUT...ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...DUE TO
CONTINUING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND AT LEAST A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF MOIST POTENTIALLY
WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH FAIRLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR HAIL IN
STRONGER STORMS WITHIN BAND SLOWLY APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN AND SABINE VALLEY THROUGH 06-09Z. SOME OF THIS COULD
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 02/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30889664 31119610 31529517 32259453 32539421 31839370
30739346 30099385 29689513 29719621 29919665 30419677
30889664

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KFWD [020412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020412
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1012 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1011 PM HAIL 3 N MONTALBA 31.92N 95.73W
02/01/2009 E1.75 INCH ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

ANDERSON COUNTY EM REPORTS GOLFBALL HAIL ON ACR 453 2
1/2 MILES NORTH OF MONTALBA

$$

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KMQT [020335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 020335
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1035 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW WATTON 46.54N 88.61W
02/01/2009 M2.8 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL IN 12 HOURS.

0818 PM SNOW MOHAWK 47.30N 88.36W
02/01/2009 M3.5 INCH KEWEENAW MI CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL IN 12 HOURS.


&&

$$

PEARSON

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KFWD [020335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020335
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM HAIL 13 NW PALESTINE 31.89N 95.80W
02/01/2009 E1.25 INCH ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HALF DOLLAR SIZE IN TENNESSEE COLONY

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020042
SWODY1
SPC AC 020039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...E TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS /INCLUDING
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ FROM JUST N OF HOU TO LCH AS OF
0030Z. 00Z CRP SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH RATHER STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7-7.5 C/KM AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
OF 500-800 J/KG. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK...THE
PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. AS
SUCH...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN AND EVENTUALLY S-CNTRL LA. SOME HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AR INTO NERN TX /JUST S OF PRX/. THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY WWD INTO ERN TX IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES AND RESULTANT STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. HERE
TOO...SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

..MEAD.. 02/02/2009

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KLCH [020037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 020037
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM TSTM WND DMG BEAUMONT 30.09N 94.14W
02/01/2009 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

CAMERA CREW FROM BEAUMONT TV STATION REPORTS SOME
POWERLINES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 105 AND MAJOR.


&&

$$

RUA

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KHGX [012346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 012346
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 2 SSW HUMBLE 29.97N 95.28W
02/01/2009 E0.25 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

47

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KLCH [012235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 012235
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
435 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 3 SW MAURICEVILLE 30.19N 93.91W
02/01/2009 E0.88 INCH ORANGE TX PUBLIC

OCCURRED AT INTERSECTION OF HWY 12 AND 1136.


&&

$$

MOGGED

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KLCH [012228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 012228
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL MAURICEVILLE 30.22N 93.87W
02/01/2009 E0.50 INCH ORANGE TX PUBLIC


&&

$$

MOGGED

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KLCH [012147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 012147
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0338 PM HAIL VIDOR 30.13N 94.00W
02/01/2009 E1.75 INCH ORANGE TX PUBLIC

RELAYED BY KBMT TV.


&&

$$

MOGGED

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KLCH [012117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 012117
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
317 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL VIDOR 30.13N 94.00W
02/01/2009 E0.88 INCH ORANGE TX PUBLIC

PUPLIC REPORTED PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

MOGGED

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0061

ACUS11 KWNS 012104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012103
LAZ000-TXZ000-012300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012103Z - 012300Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED HAIL FROM SERN TX INTO SW LA THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN A
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE WRN GULF THROUGH SERN TX
AND SW LA. GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS SERN TX WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT RESULTING IN MLCAPE
FROM 500 TO 800 J/KG. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LA...A ZONE OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR OVER SE TX
WITH SMALL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR. THIS
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING WEAK MID
LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH 7 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL.

SOMEWHAT LARGER 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS EXIST FROM EXTREME SE TX INTO SW
LA. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE
A GRADUAL VEERING AND DECREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS STORMS CROSS INTO EXTREME SE TX AND SW LA WHERE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. OVERALL THREAT IN THIS
REGION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 29549451 29229534 29749555 30629419 30609298 29859295
29699409 29549451

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 012000
SWODY1
SPC AC 011957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE/STREAMLINE ANALYSES SHOWED A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NWWD THROUGH THE GULF TO THE UPPER TX COAST WHERE IT
INTERSECTED A NNE-SSW ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE...WHICH EXTENDED FROM
THE WRN GULF INTO SE TX. REGIONAL RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED
MORE SUSTAINED TSTMS OFFSHORE OVER THE NWRN GULF ALONG THE NW-SE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME/ ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION AND A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY NWD INTO LA. 12Z LCH
SOUNDING MODIFIED WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S SUGGEST THE MORE RECENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT JUST INLAND OF THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA SHOULD BE
SURFACE BASED.

WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 30 KT
SUGGEST INLAND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT...BUT OVERALL WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER CONCERN FOR TORNADOES. GIVEN
THAT THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO...THIS OUTLOOK AS RE-INTRODUCED
A LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY.

FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSTMS/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
...PETERS...

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009/
...ARKLATEX...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...WHILE A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES TRAVERSE
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE SLOWLY TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...BUT RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS HAVE LEFT THAT PART OF THE
GULF RATHER COOL/STABLE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THAT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
THE IMMEDIATE TX/LA GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
DARK OVER EAST TX ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE AND
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER
CORES...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. ALSO OVERNIGHT...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE LA COAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY COULD POSE A THREAT
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
...HART...

..PETERS.. 02/01/2009

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KLCH [011957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 011957
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
157 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM TORNADO BEAUMONT 30.09N 94.14W
02/01/2009 JEFFERSON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC...RELAYED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE...REPORTS POSSIBLE
BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT HWY 105 AND MAJOR. NO REPORT
OF DAMAGE.


&&

$$

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KMQT [011947]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 011947
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
246 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM SNOW ROCKLAND 46.74N 89.18W
02/01/2009 M5.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

SINCE 8AM THIS MORNING.


&&

$$

PEARSON

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KMQT [011732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 011732
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1231 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COPPER HARBOR 47.47N 87.89W
02/01/2009 M60 MPH KEWEENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IN COPPER HARBOR REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST THAT
OCCURRED AT 7 AM THIS MORNING FROM THE NNW.


&&

$$

AJK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011729
SWODY2
SPC AC 011727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A SRN STREAM IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING DAY 1 PERIOD FROM NRN MEXICO
WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS NRN FL ON MONDAY...AND REACH THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS NRN STREAM FLOW
REGIME UNDERGOES FURTHER AMPLIFICATION WITH A FULL LATITUDE LONG
WAVE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE ERN U.S. DOWNSTREAM OF A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA.

PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OF FOCUS FOR THIS OUTLOOK SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE SRN TIP OF FL WWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 12Z MONDAY...
WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN MOVING NWD THROUGH S FL. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF...ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
REACHING SWRN FL /VICINITY OF FMY/ BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SRN FL MONDAY EVENING...DRAGGING A
TRAILING FRONT SWD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONT ATTENDANT TO ERN
U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN GULF AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EWD ON DAY 2...MOVING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY END OF PERIOD
AND EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL FL.

...SOUTH FL...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WILL STRENGTHEN ON DAY 2...
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITHIN
BASE OF DEEPENING ERN U.S. TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING FMY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 60S. GIVEN MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE RATHER MEAGER...A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER...
SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR DEEP
STORM ROTATION. IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH ANY LONGER LIVED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED
WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
PRESENCE OF A VEERED WSWLY 45 KT WSWLY LLJ SHOULD ENHANCE THIS WIND
THREAT. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS...THE FORECAST MOISTURE
REMAINS JUST TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME...
BUT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NWD SOME TO ACCOUNT
FOR A SLIGHTLY LARGER WARM SECTOR OVER LAND.

..PETERS.. 02/01/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011619
SWODY1
SPC AC 011615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLATEX...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PLAINS STATES...WHILE A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES TRAVERSE
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE SLOWLY TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...BUT RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS HAVE LEFT THAT PART OF THE
GULF RATHER COOL/STABLE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THAT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
THE IMMEDIATE TX/LA GULF COAST AND OFFSHORE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
DARK OVER EAST TX ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE AND
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER
CORES...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. ALSO
OVERNIGHT...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE LA COAST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE NEAR SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY COULD POSE A
THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 02/01/2009

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KAMA [011446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 011446
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
846 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 PM WILDFIRE 4 SE SKELLYTOWN 35.53N 101.12W
01/31/2009 E6400 ACRE CARSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE CARSON COUNTY SHERRIFS OFFICE REPORTED WILDFIRE
FOUR TO FIVE MILES SOUTHEAST OF SKELLYTOWN JUST OFF
STATE HIGHWAY 152. THE TRI COUNTY WILDFIRE START TIME IS
APPROXIMATE AND IS WHEN THE REPORT WAS CALLED IN. THERE
WERE NO INJURIES OR EVACUATIONS REPORTED. NO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. THE TRI COUNTY WILDFIRE WAS
REPORTED TO BE TEN MILES LONG BY ONE MILE WIDE. ANND
CONSUMED APPROXIMATELY SIXTY FOUR HUNDRED ACRES IN PARTS
OF CARSON...GRAY AND ROBERTS COUNTIES. THE WILDFIRE WAS
CONTAINED ABOUT 2000 HOURS CST. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
ALONG WITH TEN VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENTS RESPONDED TO
THE WILDFIRE.


0500 PM WILDFIRE 16 NW AMARILLO 35.37N 102.02W
01/31/2009 E500 ACRE POTTER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

AMARILLO EOC ESTIMATED THE FIRE AT 2381 AND 1061 SPLIT
TO BE APPROXIMATELY 500 ACRES. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR
INJURIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901009 AMA0901008

$$

KJS

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KAMA [011424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 011424
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
824 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 PM WILDFIRE 4 SE SKELLYTOWN 35.53N 101.12W
01/31/2009 E6400 ACRE CARSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE CARSON COUNTY SHERRIFS OFFICE REPORTED WILDFIRE
FOUR TO FIVE MILES SOUTHEAST OF SKELLYTOWN JUST OFF
STATE HIGHWAY 152. THE TRI COUNTY WILDFIRE START TIME IS
APPROXIMATE AND IS WHEN THE REPORT WAS CALLED IN. THERE
WERE NO INJURIES OR EVACUATIONS REPORTED. NO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. THE TRI COUNTY WILDFIRE WAS
REPORTED TO BE TEN MILES LONG BY ONE MILE WIDE. ANND
CONSUMED APPROXIMATELY SIXTY FOUR HUNDRED ACRES IN PARTS
OF CARSON...GRAY AND ROBERTS COUNTIES. THE WILDFIRE WAS
CONTAINED ABOUT 2000 HOURS CST. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
ALONG WITH TEN VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENTS RESPONDED TO
THE WILDFIRE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901009

$$

KJS

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KAMA [011410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 011410
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
808 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM WILDFIRE 16 NW AMARILLO 35.37N 102.02W
01/31/2009 E500 ACRE POTTER TX EMERGENCY MNGR

AMARILLO EOC ESTIMATED THE FIRE AT 2381 AND 1061 SPLIT
TO BE APPROXIMATELY 500 ACRES. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR
INJURIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901008

$$

KJS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011256
SWODY1
SPC AC 011253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN BRANCH OF EXISTING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD
AS JET STREAK NOW OVER AB/MT CONTINUES SE INTO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS
VLY. IN THE SRN STREAM...A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE
GENERALLY E FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GULF CST.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL
SURGE S ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS...AND MOVE SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS VLY. BY EARLY EVENING THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE LWR GRT LKS THROUGH CNTRL AR AND NE TX TO THE TX BIG
BEND. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAKLY-ORGANIZED SFC LOW EVOLVES S OF LA.

...E TX TO LWR MS VLY...
MODEST /20-30 KT/ SWLY LLJ WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD AWAY FROM E
TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE MID MS/OH VLYS. PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY FLOW WILL NEVERTHELESS
SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS
MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND 7 DEG C PER KM MID LVL
LAPSE RATES ON N SIDE SRN STREAM JET WILL YIELD A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...WITH OVERLAND MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TODAY OVER THE NWRN GULF...INVOF DEVELOPING SFC WAVE. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY EXPAND NW INTO THE UPR TX GULF CSTL PLN...AND N INTO
SW/SRN LA. 30+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR WITH MODEST LOW-LVL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...GIVEN A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT. ALTHOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY SVR WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO...WEAK INSTABILITY/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT
STRENGTH/DURATION OF ANY SUCH THREAT.

FARTHER NW...OTHER TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTN INTO TONIGHT FROM E CNTRL/NE TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. THESE
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS ALONG THE SE-MOVING FRONT...AND
MAY YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

..CORFIDI.. 02/01/2009

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KMQT [011249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 011249
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
749 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
02/01/2009 M52.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IN FREDA REPORTED WIND GUST OF 52 MPH. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-40 MPH.


&&

$$

AJK

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010929
SWOD48
SPC AC 010929

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...

ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE SFC HIGH EASES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL AIR MASS CAN MODIFY OVER THE WRN
GULF ANY THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

..DARROW.. 02/01/2009

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KDLH [010839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 010839
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
233 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
01/31/2009 M52.00 MPH ST. LOUIS MN ASOS

0701 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
01/31/2009 M62.00 MPH KOOCHICHING MN ASOS

0815 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HIBBING 47.40N 92.95W
01/31/2009 M44.00 MPH ST. LOUIS MN ASOS

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
01/31/2009 ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 53

1052 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ASHLAND 46.58N 90.87W
01/31/2009 M47.00 MPH ASHLAND WI ASOS

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG GHEEN 47.97N 92.81W
02/01/2009 ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGES AROUND GHEEN...PINE TREES SNAPPED...NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES


&&

$$

TLONKA

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010812
SWODY3
SPC AC 010810

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

STABLE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE CONUS DURING THE
DAY3 PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

..DARROW.. 02/01/2009

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KMQT [010756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 010756
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
255 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE HANCOCK 47.18N 88.53W
02/01/2009 M63.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI ASOS

WIND GUST REPORTED BY KCMX ASOS.


&&

$$

JLA

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KDLH [010754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 010754
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
154 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
01/31/2009 ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 53

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG GHEEN 47.97N 92.81W
02/01/2009 ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGES AROUND GHEEN...PINE TREES SNAPPED...NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES


&&

$$

TLONKA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010555
SWODY2
SPC AC 010552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH FL...

00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVENING WITH OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF ERN U.S. TROUGH MONDAY AND THE ABSORPTION OF SRN STREAM
SPEED MAX INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE.
THE SRN STREAM SPEED MAX WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD
AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS AFFECT ON
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE ERN GULF BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A WEAK SFC LOW WILL EVOLVE
ALONG PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN MOVE INLAND SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER 60S AT BEST. GIVEN A MARGINAL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER MEAGER...FEW HUNDRED J/KG
MUCAPE. EVEN SO...SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY...CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP STORM ROTATION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH LONGER
LIVED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WITHIN THE
STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
MOISTURE IS JUST TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 02/01/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010516
SWODY1
SPC AC 010513

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

POLAR BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE
AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH INTENSIFIES FROM THE
NRN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY. FARTHER S...A
SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF
WESTERLIES FROM NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO POLAR BRANCH TROUGH WILL SURGE
SEWD...EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND CNTRL TX BY EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO
THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.

...ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

SRN EXTENSION OF MODEST /20-30 KT/ LLJ WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
OCCURRING OVER THE MIDWEST INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS...
PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY FLOW IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND DAYTIME HEATING TO
SUPPORT A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
TODAY WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR FROM SERN TX INTO PORTIONS OF
SRN/CNTRL LA AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. A FEW ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 30-35 KT. THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING FROM NERN TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO A SMALL MCS TONIGHT ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.
HERE TOO...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 02/01/2009

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