Wednesday, October 17, 2007

KICT [171843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171843
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
143 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0143 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N STARK 37.68N 95.14W
10/17/2007 E60 MPH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KICT [171843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171843
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
142 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0141 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNE ST. PAUL 37.55N 95.16W
10/17/2007 E55 MPH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ELDER

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KICT [171835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171835
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
135 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM HAIL ERIE 37.57N 95.24W
10/17/2007 E0.88 INCH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KICT [171834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171834
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
134 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM TSTM WND GST ERIE 37.57N 95.24W
10/17/2007 M51 MPH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ELDER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2094

ACUS11 KWNS 171820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171820
OKZ000-TXZ000-171945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 708...709...

VALID 171820Z - 171945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 708...709...CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL
BE NEEDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT WHETHER THIS WILL INCLUDE REPLACEMENT
OF WW 708/709.

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT AND PIVOTING NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU. AS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMAINING INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN.

SQUALL LINE NOW FORMING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD IN STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY...MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO FORM IN ADVANCE OF
THE LINE DURING THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND A BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH HIGH
RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.KERR.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

35509705 36249677 36909566 36609470 34739463 33839470
33339530 32869692 33389703

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KICT [171815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171815
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL GALESBURG 37.47N 95.36W
10/17/2007 E0.75 INCH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ELDER

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KICT [171812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171812
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
112 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0111 PM HAIL THAYER 37.49N 95.47W
10/17/2007 E0.75 INCH NEOSHO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

IN ADDITION 6-8 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN WITH THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2093

ACUS11 KWNS 171759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171758
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-171930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW NEB...W CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171758Z - 171930Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY KS. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE MAY AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY 19-21Z...IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME EAST OF
SURFACE DRY LINE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY FOLLOW
SUITE THEREAFTER...SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE TOWARD MEDICINE LODGE.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. AND...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
BRIEF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.KERR.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

40210002 40969988 40759837 39649828 38169861 37619864
37239857 36989983 37700012 38830008 39000031

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KOUN [171756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 171756
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 PM HAIL OKLAHOMA CITY 35.47N 97.51W
10/17/2007 E0.75 INCH OKLAHOMA OK EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED AT I-40 AND PENN


&&

$$

SMITH

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KICT [171753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171753
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1253 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 PM TSTM WND GST NEODESHA 37.42N 95.68W
10/17/2007 E60 MPH WILSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KOUN [171737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 171737
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1234 PM HAIL OKLAHOMA CITY 35.47N 97.51W
10/17/2007 E1.00 INCH OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC

AT 119TH AND SOUTH PENN


&&

$$

SMITH

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KICT [171732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171732
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM TSTM WND GST 7 S ELK CITY 37.19N 95.91W
10/17/2007 E70 MPH MONTGOMERY KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KICT [171715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171715
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1214 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1214 PM TSTM WND GST CHAUTAUQUA 37.02N 96.18W
10/17/2007 E60 MPH CHAUTAUQUA KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ELDER

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KICT [171709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171709
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1209 PM HAIL 5 W SEDAN 37.13N 96.28W
10/17/2007 E0.50 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

ELDER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171709
SWODY2
SPC AC 171707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH RIVER IN NRN
KY...NWD INTO SERN WI AND LOWER MI...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE ERN U.P. OF MI...

..SYNOPSIS...

DEEPENING OF CENTRAL U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY1/DAY2
TIME PERIOD WILL ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
REGION...ESPECIALLY THAT REGION FROM IL/IND NWD INTO SERN WI/SWRN
LOWER MI THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

..MID MS/OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...

EARLY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES EARLIER TRENDS OF DEEPENING
CNTRL PLAINS SFC CYCLONE LATE DAY1 OVER ERN NEB. SFC LOW SHOULD
LIFT FROM NEAR OMA NEWD INTO NWRN WI BY 18/12Z AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. INTENSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER
OF 150-180M...AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD FROM
IA/IL NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS SPEED
MAX TRANSLATES FROM SRN MO INTO LOWER MI. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED...FAST-MOVING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LATEST THINKING IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ARCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IA...IL INTO
WRN KY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS WILL BE MODULATED BY INTENSE SHEAR/FORCING WITHIN A WEAK
LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. MEAN STORM FLOW AROUND 50KT
SUGGEST ORGANIZED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES COULD EASILY ACCELERATE BEYOND
THESE SPEEDS PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE DAMAGING WINDS. ANY
HEATING AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL ONLY SERVE TO AID UPDRAFT POTENTIAL
AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD SRN WI/WRN IND/SWRN
LOWER MI BY NOON. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER DISCRETE
STRUCTURES THAT EVOLVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG ADVANCING WIND
SHIFT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OR EVOLVE INTO MORE NUMEROUS
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. REGARDLESS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY
PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.

..GULF STATES...

WITH INTENSE LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO SHIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
GULF STATES...BROAD BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA. THIS INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION WILL BE DUE
MOSTLY TO SWLY LLJ THAT SHOULD EVOLVE WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL PROVE
QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES. WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID
70S...ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ROTATION. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL NEGATE
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS NONETHELESS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

.DARROW.. 10/17/2007

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

475
WOUS40 KWNS 171644
PWOSPC
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THURSDAY
AS ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY...DRAWING A BROAD PLUME OF
WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...THE OZARKS AND THE LOW TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND ASCENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE LONG-LIVED AND PRODUCE
STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO
EXIST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND JET
STREAM WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..RACY/CORFIDI.. 10/17/2007

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KTSA [171630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 171630
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM HAIL BURBANK 36.69N 96.73W
10/17/2007 E0.75 INCH OSAGE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL BRIEFLY IN HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.


&&

$$

MEB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171624
SWODY1
SPC AC 171621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN
OK...SERN KS...SWRN/SCNTRL MO...MOST OF AR AND EXTREME NERN TX...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LWR/MID MS VLYS...

..POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG AND/OR...LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES...

..SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LWR/MID MS VLYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS AN ENERGETIC MID-UPR FLOW REGIME TODAY
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE PD. BEFORE THEN...A STRONG MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE TX PNHDL/S PLAINS...WILL EJECT NEWD AS A
POWERFUL PAC JET STREAK TRANSLATES ESEWD ACROSS THE GRT BASIN REGION
TODAY. A LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WILL MOVE NWD FROM THE UPR TX
COAST AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...THE LEE LOW OVER WCNTRL KS WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NEWD...REACHING NERN NEB OR NWRN IA BY 12Z THURSDAY. TO THE S OF
THIS LOW...A DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS WRN OK AND CNTRL TX BY
MID-AFTN...THEN INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE CORN BELT AND MIDWEST BY TONIGHT...WHILE A
SECONDARY WARM FRONT DEVELOPS FROM NERN TX/SERN OK AND LWR MS VLY
REGIONS EARLY THIS AFTN INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY TONIGHT.

THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE 24-48 HR SVR WEATHER EPISODE CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD AT MID-DAY WITH MULTIPLE SVR THREAT AREAS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
BY LATE AFTN/EVE. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION/EXPANSION OF STG-SVR TSTMS ONGOING FROM CNTRL-NRN OK
AND SCNTRL KS NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VLY THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS LARGELY TIED TO THE LEAD UPR WAVE CURRENTLY
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LVL JET MAX AND DESTABILIZING/
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OZARKS/MID-MS VLY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING A SVR THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
70-90 KT H5 JET. RECENT BOWING STRUCTURES/LINEAR NATURE TO THE
STORMS COULD EVOLVE AND/OR DEVELOP INTO MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES LATER THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN OK INTO
EXTREME SERN KS AND SWRN/SCNTRL MO...WITH AN ADDED RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES.

MEANWHILE...TSTMS MAY REDEVELOP WEST/SOUTH OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KS SWD INTO NWRN TX. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/WRF-NMM4...SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL MATERIALIZE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. MOST UNSTABLE PROFILES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG SRN EDGE OF MORNING ACTIVITY...NAMELY ACROSS CNTRL OK
SWD INTO N TX...THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO STG-SVR STORMS ACROSS ERN
OK/NERN TX THIS EVE. FCST WIND FIELDS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW CAN MAINTAIN A BACKED/SELY COMPONENT. ATTM...THIS APPEARS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER CNTRL/ERN OK AS THE STORMS BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWWD FROM THE UPR TX
COAST.

LASTLY...ANOTHER ZONE OF ENHANCED SVR THREATS WILL EXIST FROM THE
UPR TX COASTAL REGION NWD INTO LA AND AR ASSOCD WITH A PLUME OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NWD WITH A GULF IMPULSE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
TIME AS THE SRN PLAINS UPR JET PUNCHES EWD AND LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW
RESPONDS. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE UPR TX COAST/WRN
LA AT MID-DAY AND REACH THE MID-SOUTH/OZARKS BY TONIGHT.

.RACY.. 10/17/2007

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KMFR [171621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171621
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
10/17/2007 M1.02 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM PDT


&&

$$

SPILDE

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 710

WWUS20 KWNS 171608
SEL0
SPC WW 171608
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-172300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF TEXARKANA
ARKANSAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 708...WW 709...

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INCREASE NWD THRU WATCH AREA AS
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.


..HALES

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KLCH [171550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 171550
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1029 AM TORNADO 4 SW BUNA 30.41N 94.01W
10/17/2007 JASPER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORT RELAYED THROUGH TV 12 IN BEAUMONT.


&&

$$

BRAZZELL

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 709

WWUS20 KWNS 171543
SEL9
SPC WW 171543
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-172300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE
KANSAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 708...

DISCUSSION...STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO PLAINS WITH
RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NWD THROUGH WATCH AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NRN OK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


..HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2092

ACUS11 KWNS 171524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171524
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-171700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK INTO PARTS OF ERN KS AND
THE OZARK PLATEAU

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 708...

VALID 171524Z - 171700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 708 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF WW 708 SOON.

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING...GENERALLY NEAR
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED IN ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
FIELD...DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGGING INTO
PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. THE DIGGING JET IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION AND AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. AND...THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR A
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

THE EXPANSION AND CONSOLIDATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION INTO ONE LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WHILE ACTIVITY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN-MOST CURRENT CLUSTER MAY TEND TO SPREAD ABOVE
RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS NOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS...THE CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER MAY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHWARD.

AND...DESPITE A TENDENCY TOWARD MID-LEVEL WARMING ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE IN
WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD WEDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EXISTS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF MAIN STORM CLUSTER.

.KERR.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

35629790 37189747 38299745 39089633 39299457 38429316
36729332 35919396 35249468 34809644 34899783 35329796

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KMFR [171519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171519
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
819 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0819 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E PORT ORFORD 42.75N 124.40W
10/17/2007 M1.22 INCH CURRY OR CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING 8AM.


&&

$$

SPENCER

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KICT [171516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 171516
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM HAIL 5 S KINGMAN 37.57N 98.11W
10/17/2007 E0.75 INCH KINGMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

ELDER

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KLUB [171455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 171455
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
954 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 PM HAIL 1 E HAPPY 34.74N 101.84W
10/16/2007 E1.75 INCH SWISHER TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF HAPPY.


&&

$$

TLINDLEY

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KMFR [171455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171455
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
755 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 AM HEAVY SNOW CRATER LAKE 42.90N 122.13W
10/17/2007 M10.0 INCH KLAMATH OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM PDT.


&&

$$

LUTZ

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KOUN [171440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 171440
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM TSTM WND GST 2 NE KINGFISHER 35.88N 97.91W
10/17/2007 M86 MPH KINGFISHER OK MESONET

FROM OK MESONET

0920 AM TSTM WND GST DOVER 35.98N 97.91W
10/17/2007 E65 MPH KINGFISHER OK PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 60-65 MPH AT CITY HALL.


&&

$$

DW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2091

ACUS11 KWNS 171437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171436
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-171630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX...LA...SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171436Z - 171630Z

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND
A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS ADVECTING NWD OUT
OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F.
A WEAK MESO LOW WAS NOTED AS WELL AND COULD BE SEEN ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY OVER SERN TX. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS LA WERE INDICATING
MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS/HODOGRAPHS WAS NOTED IN
THE 2-4 KM LAYER.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND SOME POCKETS OF
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS SE
TX/LA AND SPREADING NWD INTO SRN AR. TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE HIGH
INITIALLY...BUT WILL INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS THIS OCCURS...WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF
TORNADOES.

.JEWELL.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

29529435 32789431 33549371 33999310 34009219 33669133
32699129 30759174 29809213 29649259 29759331 29719376

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KMFR [171418]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171418
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
718 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0717 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
10/17/2007 M0.80 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE MIDNIGHT.


&&

$$

GLASER

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 706

WWUS20 KWNS 171403
SEL6
SPC WW 171403
OKZ000-TXZ000-171400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 706 ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 707

WWUS20 KWNS 171403
SEL7
SPC WW 171403
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 707 ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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KOUN [171355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 171355
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
855 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 AM TSTM WND GST WEATHERFORD 35.53N 98.71W
10/17/2007 M73 MPH CUSTER OK PUBLIC

RELAYED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA.


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [171339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 171339
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
839 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 AM HAIL 3 NNW HYDRO 35.59N 98.60W
10/17/2007 E0.75 INCH BLAINE OK PUBLIC

BRIEF DIME TO PENNY HAIL.


&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [171322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 171322
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 AM TSTM WND GST 2 N WEATHERFORD 35.56N 98.71W
10/17/2007 M60 MPH CUSTER OK BROADCAST MEDIA

VIA KWVY RADIO


&&

$$

DW

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 708

WWUS20 KWNS 171249
SEL8
SPC WW 171249
OKZ000-TXZ000-172100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALTUS
OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 706...WW 707...

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS FORMING IN AREA OF
ASCENT AHEAD OF STRONG NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN AS LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
REGION. WHILE SFC HEATING WILL BE LIMITED...COMBINATION OF WEAK MID
LVL COOLING...LOW LVL MOISTENING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED. STRENGTH OF LOW
LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH TO 300 MR PER S2/ AND LOW LCLS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IF STORMS DO INDEED STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME SFC-BASED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


..CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171236
SWODY1
SPC AC 171233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF AR...CNTRL AND ERN OK...ERN KS AND SRN/CNTRL MO...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY N
INTO THE LWR MO AND MID MS VLYS...

..SYNOPSIS...

..POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG AND/OR...
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL PLNS THIS PERIOD
AS STRONG MID/HIGH-LVL IMPULSE NOW IN NM IS PROPELLED NEWD BY STRONG
PACIFIC JET STREAK SWEEPING E/SE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN. THE NM
TROUGH SHOULD REACH CNTRL KS EARLY TONIGHT AND EASTERN IA BY 12Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE PACIFIC JET STREAK CONTINUES E/SE TO THE SRN HI
PLNS.

AT LWR LVLS...LEE CYCLONE NOW IN SE CO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NE ACROSS KS TODAY AND REACHES NE NEB/NW IA EARLY THURSDAY.
SFC PATTERN WILL BE COMPLICATED BY OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING STORMS IN
THE SRN PLNS AND LWR MS VLY...AND BY DISJOINTED NATURE OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM THE RED RVR VLY REGION ESE INTO
NRN LA. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM THE CO LOW SHOULD MOVE
E INTO WRN OK AND NW TX BY MID TO LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY WILL ALSO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

BY 12Z THURSDAY...EXPECT THAT WARM FRONT WILL HAVE BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED AND WILL HAVE MOVED NE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
WHILE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE PLNS.

..SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO THE LWR/MID MS VLYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE 2-3 DAY SVR WEATHER EPISODE IS UNFOLDING ATTM
AS TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS
IN ZONE OF INCREASING WAA/MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF POTENT NM UPR
IMPULSE. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE/DEVELOP
NEWD THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HEATING AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE RETURN
FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION.

STRENGTHENING LOW AND DEEP-LYR WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE MDT AND SLGT
RISK REGIONS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS...
WITH DEEP SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE AOA 50 KTS OVER A BROAD SWATH FROM
CNTRL/E TX NE INTO THE MID AND LWR MS VLYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WHILE RICHEST MARITIME AIR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO REGION INVOF
DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE OVER E TX/LA AND AR...SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE /WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S/ WILL SURGE N BEYOND THE
STL AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS 40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ BROADENS IN WARM
SECTOR OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE STEEPEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...MEANWHILE...WILL SWEEP ENE FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION
THIS MORNING TO THE LWR MO VLY BY EVENING...ALONG AND N OF UPR JET.

GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES POSED BY EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND THE
DISJOINTED/DIFFUSE NATURE OF SFC BOUNDARIES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
CONFIDENTLY IDENTIFY A HIGH RISK CORRIDOR WITHIN THE BROAD AREA
OUTLINED BY THE MDT/SGT RISK FORECASTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS
..HOWEVER...ARE THAT THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM CNTRL/ERN OK NNE INTO SE
KS...AS /1/ SFC HEATING.../2/ CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW...AND /3/
STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR
TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STORM
INITIATION. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-1250 J PER KG
SBCAPE/ AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS. GIVEN BREADTH OF DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR AND EXPECTED
DEGREE OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THESE STORMS COULD YIELD STRONG AND/OR
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
THE SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL SPREAD INTO WRN/SRN MO AND NW AR EARLY
TONIGHT...AND ERN MO/WRN IL EARLY THURSDAY...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD EJECTING UPR TROUGH.

FARTHER S...TSTMS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS TODAY
INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM FAR ERN TX AND LA INTO MUCH OF AR...IN
RESPONSE TO HEATING AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF NM TROUGH. MID LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF RICH
BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE...MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AND BACKED LOW LVL FLOW
WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF
STORMS/SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS REGIME COULD PERSIST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT AND SPREAD NNE ALONG CONFLUENT ERN PART OF BROADENING
LLJ...EXTENDING SVR THREAT INTO PARTS OF MS AND WRN TN EARLY
THURSDAY.

..MID MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVENING...
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST OVER THE ERN MO/SRN IL/WRN
KY AREA THIS AFTN...MORE THAN LIKELY AS ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ IS MIXED TO THE SFC INVOF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SFC-BASED STORMS. IF SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT REALIZED...ELEVATED ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING IN WRN/SRN MO COULD
AFFECT REGION LATER TODAY AS STORMS BECOME ROOTED INCREASINGLY CLOSE
TO THE SFC. GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP WSW SHEAR...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A SVR THREAT LONG BEFORE PREVIOUSLY-DISCUSSED OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY.

.CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/17/2007

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KMFR [171210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 171210
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
10/17/2007 M1.45 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

5AM TO 5AM.


&&

$$

GLASER

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KAMA [171201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 171201
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
701 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1131 PM HAIL 7 WSW AMARILLO 35.16N 101.93W
10/16/2007 M1.50 INCH RANDALL TX NWS EMPLOYEE


1133 PM HAIL 6 NW AMARILLO 35.26N 101.89W
10/16/2007 M1.75 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER


1139 PM HAIL 8 NNW AMARILLO 35.31N 101.87W
10/16/2007 M1.00 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER NEAR RIVER ROAD OR THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF ROLLING HILLS


1142 PM HAIL 12 SW AMARILLO 35.08N 101.97W
10/16/2007 M1.50 INCH RANDALL TX TRAINED SPOTTER


1204 AM HAIL FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
10/17/2007 E1.50 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR


1219 AM HAIL FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
10/17/2007 E1.50 INCH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PING PONG SIZE HAIL


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00033 00034 00035 00036 00037 00038

$$

NUNEZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2090

ACUS11 KWNS 171150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171150 COR
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/ERN
PANHANDLE OF OK...PARTS OF SWRN/W-CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707...

VALID 171150Z - 171330Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC OUTLINE

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707
CONTINUES.

HOWEVER...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING FROM W-E ACROSS
NRN/WRN PORTIONS WW AREA. SEVERAL SWRN KS COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
CLEARED ALREADY...AND ADDITIONAL CLEARANCE AND/OR CANCELLATION MAY
BE NEEDED BEFORE SCHEDULED 14Z EXPIRATION IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.

LINE OF TSTMS WAS EVIDENT AT 1115Z FROM ROBERTS/OCHILTREE COUNTIES
SWWD TO CARSON COUNTY...MOVING MOSTLY ENEWD INTO WW 706. REF SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 FOR MORE DETAILS. WHILE PORTIONS SWRN KS
REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE ABOVE SFC TO SUPPORT STG-SVR
CONVECTION...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT MAY BE BYPASSING THIS AREA
TO THE S IN FORM OF DPVA AHEAD OF EJECTING NM TROUGH...AND TO THE E
IN THE FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO MAINTENANCE OF
CENTRAL KS ACTIVITY.

.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36570207 37510056 39029991 38809899 37659844 36879902
36940000 36130020 35590149 34830161 34870209

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KOUN [171142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 171142
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM TSTM WND GST LAVERNE 36.71N 99.90W
10/17/2007 M63 MPH HARPER OK CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

DW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2090

ACUS11 KWNS 171125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171124
OKZ000-TXZ000-171330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/ERN
PANHANDLE OF OK...PARTS OF SWRN/W-CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707...

VALID 171124Z - 171330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707
CONTINUES.

HOWEVER...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING FROM W-E ACROSS
NRN/WRN PORTIONS WW AREA. SEVERAL SWRN KS COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
CLEARED ALREADY...AND ADDITIONAL CLEARANCE AND/OR CANCELLATION MAY
BE NEEDED BEFORE SCHEDULED 14Z EXPIRATION IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.

LINE OF TSTMS WAS EVIDENT AT 1115Z FROM ROBERTS/OCHILTREE COUNTIES
SWWD TO CARSON COUNTY...MOVING MOSTLY ENEWD INTO WW 706. REF SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089 FOR MORE DETAILS. WHILE PORTIONS SWRN KS
REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE ABOVE SFC TO SUPPORT STG-SVR
CONVECTION...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT MAY BE BYPASSING THIS AREA
TO THE S IN FORM OF DPVA AHEAD OF EJECTING NM TROUGH...AND TO THE E
IN THE FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO MAINTENANCE OF
CENTRAL KS ACTIVITY.

.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

34909860 33829936 33339988 32910058 32930126 33420189
34550194 35740078 36939850

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2089

ACUS11 KWNS 171107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171107
OKZ000-TXZ000-171300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS REGION AND SRN/ERN PANHANDLE
OF TX...NW TX...WRN OK.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 706...

VALID 171107Z - 171300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 706 CONTINUES.

PER COORD/W WFO LUB...DICKENS/KENT/STONEWALL/KING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
APPENDED TO EXISTING WW. BULK OF WW AREA WILL BE RE-EVALUATED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW BY 13Z.

MEANWHILE...TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING CONVECTION
ARE APPARENT AS OF 1045Z --
1. NARROW BAND FROM CASTRO-ROBERTS COUNTIES...ASTRIDE JAGGED EDGE
OF BOTH WW 706 AND 707. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS SHIFTED E OF DRYLINE
AND THAT IS ALIGNED SSW-NNE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN LINEAR
ORGANIZATION...WHILE SVR THREAT DECREASES TO ITS W BECAUSE OF
WEAKENING OF BOTH CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...EARLY LINEAR MODE AND
RELATIVE KINEMATIC GEOMETRY INDICATES ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN AS THIS LINES MOVES EWD
ACROSS WRN/NRN PORTIONS WW. AIR MASS TO ITS E APPEARS TO BE
RECOVERING FROM EARLIER MCS PASSAGE...AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA.
2. BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS FROM NEAR CDS SWWD ACROSS KENT COUNTY.
RELATIVELY RICH LOW LEVEL THETAE SHOULD REMAIN IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS
ACROSS SRN/SERN PORTIONS WW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH SFC DEW
POINTS MID 60S F E OF CAPROCK...MLCINH LESS THAN 50 J/KG...AND
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE
LIFTED PARCELS ARE ROOTED NEAR SFC. THIS FACTOR...COMBINED WITH
ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH WRN PORTION LLJ AND 45-55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...INDICATES THAT ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
CELLS MAY ROTATE WITH POTENTIAL STILL THERE FOR TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THOSE
AREAS...AHEAD OF SFC DRYLINE. HOWEVER...SLGT VEERING OF SFC WINDS
HAS BEEN NOTED PAST 1-2 HOURS W OF CAPROCK. THIS TREND IS PROGGED
BY RUC TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AS LEE TROUGHING MOVES EWD. DRYLINE
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AFTER SUNRISE...BECAUSE OF COMBINATION OF
INCREASING NEAR-SFC MIXING WITH WLY WIND COMPONENT AND ASSOCIATED
DRY ADVECTION. THEREFORE SVR PROBABILITIES OVER SWRN PORTIONS WW
MAY DIMINISH WITH TIME.

.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

34909860 33829936 33339988 32910058 32930126 33420189
34550194 35740078 36939850

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2088

ACUS11 KWNS 170942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170941
TXZ000-171145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW AND W-CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170941Z - 171145Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPING SVR THREAT. CONVECTION IS FORMING
AND SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR
MAF...PERHAPS SWD TO BETWEEN SJT-FST.

PLUME OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING/SPREADING EWD ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN --
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NM AND FAR W TX. THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
WELL JUXTAPOSED WITH ENRICHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRIMARILY ALONG AND
BELOW W TX CAPROCK. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO MID 60S F
BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND W TX MESONET DATA...WHICH ALSO SHOWS
RELATIVELY BACKED/SSELY SFC WINDS. WHEN COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT
LLJ-LEVEL FLOW...THIS YIELDS ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES ACROSS CAPROCK
REGION...FCST TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND NW TX AS
NM PERTURBATION APCHS. MEANWHILE...FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BECOMING ROOTED AT OR NEAR SFC...DESPITE
STABLE LAYER NEAR 2 KM AGL THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 50 J/KG
SBCINH. THESE FACTORS SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND PERHAPS CONDITIONAL
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN BECOME RELATIVELY
DISCRETE AND SUSTAINED. LARGE HAIL IS A DISTINCT THREAT...WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.

.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31080240 32660222 33850061 34049902 33189831 32349831
31119970 30800155

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KTOP [170934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 170934
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
434 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0413 AM HAIL 6 NW WHITE CITY 38.86N 96.81W
10/17/2007 E0.88 INCH MORRIS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

OFFICER REPORTED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 77 NEAR THE GEARY MORRIS
COUNTY LINE.


&&

$$

FRANTZ

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

603
WOUS40 KWNS 170924
PWOSPC
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-171730-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0424 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FROM EASTERN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS TODAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY...DRAWING A BROAD PLUME OF
WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...THE OZARKS AND THE LOW TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND ASCENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE LONG-LIVED AND PRODUCE
STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL
ALSO EXIST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE SURFACE
LOW AND JET STREAM WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..STEPHEN CORFIDI/STORM PREDICTION CENTER.. 10/17/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2087

ACUS11 KWNS 170907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170907
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-171100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN OK...CENTRAL/ERN KS...SERN
NEB...SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170907Z - 171100Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH ARE FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS
BROAD SWATH OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH SUNRISE...PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN SERN NEB AND N-CENTRAL OK. THIS WILL INCLUDE MCS MOVING
NEWD FROM NERN PORTIONS WW 706 AND SERN PORTIONS WW 707. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL OK. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY
CONDITIONAL FOR ANOTHER 4-6 HOURS...BUT INFLOW MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO SFC BASED TO SUPPORT SOME PROBABILITIES WITH ANY
SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS OVER WRN/NRN OK.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING ROBUSTLY TO REGION FROM S-N...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MID-UPPER 60S F COMMON ACROSS SRN OK...LOW 60S NRN OK AND S-CENTRAL
KS. BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT REGION
AS MOIST/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO OFFSET NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC
STABILIZATION TENDENCY NEAR SFC...MAINTAINING OR INCREASING THETAE.
THIS WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED VERY NEAR SFC OVER
OK PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. BROAD
40-50 KT LLJ...ANALYZED FROM W-CENTRAL TX TO S-CENTRAL KS...WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED ALONG WITH 0-3 KM SRH...FOR ANY
TSTMS ABLE TO BECOME ROOTED NEAR SFC. 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ARE FCST FROM E-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK...MRGL FOR
SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION. PRIND BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO NEB AND
MO...BUT ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME...SUPPORTING STG/ISOLD SVR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

35799853 40609825 40279561 37469292 36349459 34999784

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170901
SWOD48
SPC AC 170900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

..DISCUSSION...
EXTREME RUN-TO-RUN MODEL VARIABILITY -- AND DRASTIC DIFFERENCES ALSO
EXIST BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. SEVERE
THREAT AREA PREVIOUSLY OUTLOOKED FOR SUN. OCT. 21 APPEARS MUCH LESS
LIKELY ATTM. GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO
DELINEATE ANY SEVERE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

.GOSS.. 10/17/2007

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KGID [170816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 170816
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0316 AM HAIL BELOIT 39.47N 98.11W
10/17/2007 E0.25 INCH MITCHELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

KISNER

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KDDC [170810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 170810
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 AM HAIL GARDEN CITY 37.98N 100.86W
10/17/2007 E0.88 INCH FINNEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

GERARD

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KVEF [170737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 170737
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1236 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 S OLANCHA 36.00N 118.00W
10/16/2007 M66 MPH INYO CA MESONET


&&

$$

CSCHLOTT

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170724
SWODY3
SPC AC 170722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
ERN CONUS...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES -- AND EVENTUALLY CLEARS -- THE ATLANTIC COAST.

..ERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE W SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS EWD TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST...

ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LOCALLY-SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COAST STATES. MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER BUT LIMITED HEATING DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER
SUGGESTS MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE RISK AREA. THIS SHOULD
SUSTAIN A LARGE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS -- COMPRISED OF
SMALLER LINES/CLUSTERS -- FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD PERSISTING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIVE
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. ALONG WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE BACKED/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED INVOF
A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS STORMS
NEAR/MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.GOSS.. 10/17/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 707

WWUS20 KWNS 170650
SEL7
SPC WW 170650
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-171400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 145 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ELKHART KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 705. WATCH NUMBER 705 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 145 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 706...

DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL FCST TO INCREASE AS ELEVATED
INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM S-N ACROSS WW AREA. 35-45
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES FCST TO DEVELOP...SUGGESTING
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


..EDWARDS/CORFIDI

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KHNX [170639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 170639
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1139 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM DUST STORM MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
10/16/2007 KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 2 FATAL, 24 INJ *** TWO PEOPLE DEAD IN MULTIPLE
ACCIDENTS ON HIGHWAY 58 NEAR MOJAVE. ACCIDENTS RESULTED
WHEN VISIBILITY DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO IN BLOWING DUST
ACCORDING TO CHP. NEARLY TWO DOZEN OTHERS WERE INJURED.
HIGHWAY 58 WAS SHUT DOWN AT QUARTER AFTER TWELVE.


&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 706

WWUS20 KWNS 170637
SEL6
SPC WW 170637
OKZ000-TXZ000-171400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 135 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 705...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY
INCREASE IN NUMBER INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM SWRN
PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK. SLY LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOISTEN WITH CONTINUED NE MOTION OF LEAD
IMPULSE...NOW OVER ERN NM...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE SRN RCKYS/GRT BASIN. SETUP MAY SUPPORT NEAR
SFC-BASED STORMS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL GIVEN LOW LCLS AND CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT TO LOW LVL SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2086

ACUS11 KWNS 170613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170612
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-170745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TX PANHANDLE AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS
REGION...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...MUCH OF OK
PANHANDLE...PORTIONS NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 705...

VALID 170612Z - 170745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 705
CONTINUES.

SVR TSTMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCH
DIAMETER OVER SRN PORTIONS WW DURING PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL WW
ISSUANCE -- WHICH MAY INCLUDE REPLACEMENT OR UPGRADE -- IS BEING
CONSIDERED AS WELL...FOR AREAS SWD PAST LBB AND EWD INTO WRN OK.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS
ARE ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR SFC...DESPITE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER AROUND
1 KM AGL AND DESPITE PRESENCE OF 50-75 J/KG SBCINH. TYPICAL
DIABATIC COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE OFFSET BY
SFC WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION ENOUGH THAT LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THETAE
WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS EVEN SLGT INCREASE FROM SRN TX PANHANDLE SWD
ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...GIVEN INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED AND VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT LLJ OBSERVED
IN VWP DATA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER AND S OF
EXISTING WW...ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM SERN CO
LOW SSWWD ACROSS DHT AREA...20 E CVS...40 WNW INK. DRYLINE SHOULD
RETREAT WWD SLIGHTLY INTO MORE OF NM BEFORE BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY.

FARTHER N -- NEW SVR TSTM WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS
OK PANHANDLE...SRN KS...AND PERHAPS NWRN OK N AND NE OF WW 705...FOR
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL FROM ELEVATED SVR TSTMS. POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS
ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CIMARRON COUNTY OK...AND CONVECTION
SHOULD EXPAND/SPREAD NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PREDAWN HOURS. AIR MASS
FCST TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR
LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED ABOVE SFC...WITH MUCAPES REACHING 500-1000
J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO 35-45 KT RANGE WILL
SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL.

.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...

33160279 35400197 36610226 37070211 38360125 38509923
38349875 37579837 35619905 33210122 32720275

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170602
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN WI...LOWER
MI...NRN AND ERN IL...INDIANA...WRN OH...AND PARTS OF NRN KY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...INCLUDING A 90 KT SWLY H5 JET S AND E
OF THE LOW CENTER.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES...
WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF A WIDESPREAD AREA EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE RISK
AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...DRIVEN BY LARGE-SCALE WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THIS JET
WEAKENS/SHIFTS NEWD DURING THE DAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING POCKETS OF LIMITED HEATING AND AT LEAST MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION OF VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD.

STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...AS
INTENSE FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE -- VEERING WITH
HEIGHT FROM THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS -- RESULTS IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR WELL-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA...AND VERY STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT FLOW FIELD.
FURTHER...GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LCLS ALONG WITH AMPLE
VEERING/SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW MAY BE
STRONG/LONG-LIVED. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...LIKELY
LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS STORMS CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS.

.GOSS.. 10/17/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170555
SWODY1
SPC AC 170552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
SERN KS...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK...AR AND SRN MO...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...

SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
AS STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS PROPAGATE FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY.
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN NM AS OF 17/05Z WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY OVER SWRN
KS BEFORE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO ERN NEB OR WRN IA BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW WILL
MIX/ADVECT EWD INTO WRN OK AND NWRN TX BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...WARM FRONT /EFFECTIVELY DELINEATING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/ WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

--A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF STRONG...LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES--

17/00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES AND CURRENT GOES IPW DATA SHOW A RAPID
RETURN OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S/ NOW IN PLACE FROM SRN TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
COAST. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
EWD THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE THE TRANSPORT OF THIS
MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON E OF DRY LINE FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD
THROUGH OK INTO KS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER E OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER...THOUGH
COMPARABLY RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE TX PNHDL ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER PARTS OF NWRN
TX...OK AND KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAKER...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES.

MORE SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE
OF EARLIER STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS SWD/SEWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK
AND FAR N-CNTRL TX. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A HIGH LIKLIHOOD
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FROM SERN KS AND ERN OK INTO AR AND SRN MO
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS TODAY OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNING NWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND AND/OR
HAIL. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE NWD OVERNIGHT ALONG ERN BRANCH OF
LLJ THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...LIKELY
MERGING WITH OTHER STORM CLUSTERS ORIGINATING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SUPERCELLS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

.MEAD/GUYER.. 10/17/2007

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KAMA [170543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 170543
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1219 AM HAIL FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
10/17/2007 E1.50 INCH HUTCHINSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PING PONG SIZE HAIL


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00038

$$

NUNEZ

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KVEF [170542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 170542
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1042 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1108 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DAGGETT 34.86N 116.88W
10/16/2007 M55 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS


&&

$$

CSCHLOTT

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KHNX [170538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 170538 CCA
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1035 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 WNW RIDGECREST 35.76N 117.73W
10/16/2007 M59.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE CLASS III-16C SITE.

0814 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 N MOJAVE 35.20N 118.18W
10/16/2007 M66.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE JAWBONE RAWS SITE.

1047 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
10/16/2007 M58.00 MPH KERN CA OTHER FEDERAL

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH ALSO RECORDED.

1205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
10/16/2007 M67.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE MOJAVE NTPS SITE.

0105 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NNE INYOKERN 35.78N 117.74W
10/16/2007 M49.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE BAKER MESONET SITE.

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INYOKERN 35.65N 117.81W
10/16/2007 M60.00 MPH KERN CA OTHER FEDERAL

SUSTAINED WINDS AT 52 MPH ALSO REPORTED.

0713 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAUREL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.48N 117.70W
10/16/2007 M46.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0813 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAW 35.69N 117.89W
10/16/2007 M50.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0856 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE RIDGECREST 35.65N 117.64W
10/16/2007 M48.00 MPH KERN CA ASOS

MEASURED AT THE CHINA LAKE NAS /KNID/.


&&
SELECTED SUSTAINED WINDS AND PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM THE WIND EVENT OF OCTOBER 16, 2007.
$$

STACHELSKI

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KHNX [170535]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 170535
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1035 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NNW RIDGECREST 35.76N 117.73W
10/16/2007 M59.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE CLASS III-16C SITE.

0814 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 N MOJAVE 35.20N 118.18W
10/16/2007 M66.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE JAWBONE RAWS SITE.

1047 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
10/16/2007 M58.00 MPH KERN CA OTHER FEDERAL

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH ALSO RECORDED.

1205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
10/16/2007 M67.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE MOJAVE NTPS SITE.

0105 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NNE INYOKERN 35.78N 117.74W
10/16/2007 M49.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED AT THE BAKER MESONET SITE.

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INYOKERN 35.65N 117.81W
10/16/2007 M60.00 MPH KERN CA OTHER FEDERAL

SUSTAINED WINDS AT 52 MPH ALSO REPORTED.

0713 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAUREL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.48N 117.70W
10/16/2007 M46.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0813 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAW 35.69N 117.89W
10/16/2007 M50.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0856 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE RIDGECREST 35.65N 117.64W
10/16/2007 M48.00 MPH KERN CA ASOS

MEASURED AT THE CHINA LAKE NAS /KNID/.


&&
SELECTED SUSTAINED WINDS AND PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FROM THE WIND EVENT OF OCTOBER 16, 2007.
$$

STACHELSKI

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KAMA [170515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 170515
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1215 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1204 AM HAIL FRITCH 35.64N 101.60W
10/17/2007 E1.50 INCH HUTCHINSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00037

$$

KJS

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KAMA [170506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 170506
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 PM HAIL 12 SW AMARILLO 35.08N 101.97W
10/16/2007 M1.50 INCH RANDALL TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00036

$$

KJS

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KLUB [170447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 170447
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 PM HAIL 1 S HAPPY 34.73N 101.86W
10/16/2007 E1.00 INCH SWISHER TX PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED BY WFO AMARILLO

&&

$$

JDV

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 705

WWUS20 KWNS 170442
SEL5
SPC WW 170442
TXZ000-171000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
AMARILLO TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BORGER TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH
FROM NM...AND INCREASING L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE ON A 40 KT LLJ.
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 850-500 MB AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


..THOMPSON

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KAMA [170442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 170442
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1139 PM HAIL 8 NNW AMARILLO 35.31N 101.87W
10/16/2007 M1.00 INCH POTTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER NEAR RIVER ROAD OR THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF ROLLING HILLS


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00035

$$

KJS

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