SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171820
OKZ000-TXZ000-171945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 708...709...
VALID 171820Z - 171945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 708...709...CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL
BE NEEDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT WHETHER THIS WILL INCLUDE REPLACEMENT
OF WW 708/709.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT AND PIVOTING NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU. AS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMAINING INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN.
SQUALL LINE NOW FORMING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD IN STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY...MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO FORM IN ADVANCE OF
THE LINE DURING THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND A BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH HIGH
RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
.KERR.. 10/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
35509705 36249677 36909566 36609470 34739463 33839470
33339530 32869692 33389703
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