KOAX [040151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 040151
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
851 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 PM HAIL 1 N WILBER 40.50N 96.96W
10/03/2013 E2.75 INCH SALINE NE STORM CHASER


&&

$$

DERGAN

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KMKX [040140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 040140
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
840 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0828 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE BEAVER DAM 43.48N 88.81W
10/03/2013 E60 MPH DODGE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WINDS 55 TO 60 MPH. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/8
MILE IN TORRENTIAL RAIN. MINOR PONDING ALONG US 151
SOUTH.


&&

$$

MEB

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KOAX [040129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 040129
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
829 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0821 PM HAIL 7 NNE WESTERN 40.49N 97.15W
10/03/2013 E2.50 INCH SALINE NE STORM CHASER

0819 PM HAIL 6 W WILBER 40.48N 97.08W
10/03/2013 E2.00 INCH SALINE NE EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

DERGAN

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 537

WWUS20 KWNS 040124
SEL7
SPC WW 040124
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-041000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHERN MISSOURI
EASTERN NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 140
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO 70 MILES NORTH OF DES MOINES
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS JUST NOW FORMING IN SE NEB EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND N OF SLOWLY-MOVING SW-NE COLD
FRONT...AND ALONG AND N OF DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESE
FROM FRONT INTO N CNTRL MO. UPLIFT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE FOCUSED BY
NOCTURNALLY-STRENGTHENED SSWLY LLJ /WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REACH
45-50 KTS/.
THE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI AND LIKELY WILL EVOLVE
INTO A SIZABLE MCS. WHILE THE MAIN SVR THREAT DURING THE DURATION OF
THE WATCH SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...A NON-ZERO TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO
WILL EXIST. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
OVER ERN NEB...WHERE LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /REF MCD 1924 AND
01Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK/.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...CORFIDI

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KOAX [040115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 040115
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
815 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0814 PM HAIL WILBER 40.48N 96.96W
10/03/2013 E1.25 INCH SALINE NE EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

JB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040055
SWODY1
SPC AC 040053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO
INTO IA...

...SERN NEB THROUGH EXTREME NWRN MO INTO MUCH OF IA...

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN IA SWWD THROUGH SERN NEB
INTO NWRN KS. RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM
NRN MO NWWD INTO EXTREME NERN KS AND SCNTRL NEB WHERE IT INTERSECTS
THE COLD FRONT. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...SHALLOW CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SHALLOW SO FAR LARGELY DUE TO
CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT AT BASE OF AN EML
THAT HAS ADVECTED ABOVE THE REGION. THIS WARM LAYER WAS DEPICTED ON
BOTH THE OMAHA AND TOPEKA 00Z SOUNDINGS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ SHOULD AUGMENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
REGION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ASCENT MIGHT BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
EVENTUALLY ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION AND PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
STORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING OVER
SERN NEB WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. MOST STORMS WILL BECOME
ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SFC LAYER...BUT INITIAL STORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT MAY BE CLOSE TO SFC
BASED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MODERATE /1000-1500 J/KG/ MUCAPE WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY EXIST IF
STORMS DEVELOP EARLY TO MID EVENING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
GROW UPSCALE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2013

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KMKX [040054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 040054
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
754 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 PM HEAVY RAIN PORTAGE 43.55N 89.47W
10/03/2013 E1.50 INCH COLUMBIA WI 911 CALL CENTER

HIGH STANDING WATER IN PORTAGE.


&&

$$

MEB

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KPIH [040049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 040049
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
648 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW 16 NW STANLEY 44.30N 115.23W
10/03/2013 E2.7 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

BANNER SUMMIT SNOTEL 7040 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM HEAVY SNOW 16 NE ISLAND PARK 44.50N 111.13W
10/03/2013 E10.1 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

BLACK BEAR SNOTEL 8150 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 30 SW BURLEY 42.17N 114.20W
10/03/2013 E3.0 INCH CASSIA ID MESONET

BOSTETTER R.S. SNOTEL 7503 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 11 NE SPENCER 44.43N 112.00W
10/03/2013 E1.0 INCH CLARK ID MESONET

CRAB CREEK SNOTEL 6686 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 20 NE PRESTON 42.37N 111.57W
10/03/2013 E1.4 INCH FRANKLIN ID MESONET

EMIGRANT SUMMIT SNOTEL 7390 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 17 SE ALMO 41.92N 113.42W
10/03/2013 E2.9 INCH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

GEORGE CREEK SNOTEL 8994 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 11 NE MONTPELIER 42.42N 111.17W
10/03/2013 E0.2 INCH BEAR LAKE ID MESONET

GIVEOUT SNOTEL 6932 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 22 NW KETCHUM 43.87N 114.72W
10/03/2013 E4.3 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

GALENA SUMMIT SNOTEL 8782 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 32 NNE DRIGGS 44.13N 110.83W
10/03/2013 E5.0 INCH TETON WY MESONET

GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL 7265 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 ENE DRIGGS 43.78N 110.93W
10/03/2013 E7.1 INCH TETON WY MESONET

GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL 9260 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 30 NNW ARCO 44.02N 113.47W
10/03/2013 E3.5 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

HILTS CREEK SNOTEL 8001 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 1 W ISLAND PARK 44.42N 111.38W
10/03/2013 E1.5 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

ISLAND PARK SNOTEL 6293 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM HEAVY SNOW 37 NE MACKAY 44.43N 113.32W
10/03/2013 E6.7 INCH LEMHI ID MESONET

MEADOW LAKE SNOTEL 9150 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 30 WSW BURLEY 42.18N 114.28W
10/03/2013 E4.6 INCH TWIN FALLS ID MESONET

MAGIC MOUNTAIN SNOTEL 6833 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 28 NE STANLEY 44.47N 114.48W
10/03/2013 E5.0 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

MILL CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL 8870 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.58N 111.12W
10/03/2013 E6.6 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

MADISON PLATEAU SNOTEL 7750 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM HEAVY SNOW 24 N CHALLIS 44.85N 114.27W
10/03/2013 E12.6 INCH LEMHI ID MESONET

MORGAN CREEK SNOTEL 7600 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 38 E IDAHO FALLS 43.57N 111.22W
10/03/2013 E1.3 INCH BONNEVILLE ID MESONET

PINE CREEK PASS SNOTEL 6720 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 17 SE DRIGGS 43.52N 110.92W
10/03/2013 E1.7 INCH TETON WY MESONET

PHILIPS BENCH SNOTEL 8200 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 14 N MONTPELIER 42.57N 111.30W
10/03/2013 E3.5 INCH BEAR LAKE ID MESONET

SLUG CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL 7225 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 16 S AFTON 42.50N 110.92W
10/03/2013 E3.8 INCH LINCOLN WY MESONET

SALT RIVER SUMMIT SNOTEL 7760 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 17 SW MACKAY 43.73N 113.83W
10/03/2013 E4.3 INCH CUSTER ID MESONET

SMILEY MOUNTAIN SNOTEL 9520 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 2 NE WAYAN 42.95N 111.37W
10/03/2013 E1.7 INCH CARIBOU ID MESONET

SOMSEN RANCH SNOTEL 6801 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 32 E BLACKFOOT 43.22N 111.68W
10/03/2013 E0.3 INCH BINGHAM ID MESONET

SHEEP MOUNTAIN SNOTEL 6571 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 22 NW KETCHUM 43.80N 114.85W
10/03/2013 E1.2 INCH BLAINE ID MESONET

VIENNA MINE SNOTEL 8963 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM SNOW 7 S POCATELLO 42.75N 112.48W
10/03/2013 E1.3 INCH BANNOCK ID MESONET

WILDHORSE DIVIDE SNOTEL 6490 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.

0600 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 NW ISLAND PARK 44.53N 111.42W
10/03/2013 E6.0 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

WHITE ELEPHANT SNOTEL 7713 MSL. 24-HOUR TOTAL.



&&

$$

JKEYES

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KBYZ [040049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 040049
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
648 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 S BIG TIMBER 45.69N 109.96W
10/03/2013 E12.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING NON-STOP SINCE ABOUT 4 AM MDT. MANY
COTTONWOOD TREE BRANCHES DOWN.


&&

$$

CJS

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KLOT [040041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLOT 040041
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
741 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 E1.00 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AT RENWICK AND WEBER ROAD.

0440 PM HAIL ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 E1.00 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AIRPORT ROAD AND WEBER ROAD. RELAYED VIA FACEBOOK.

0444 PM TSTM WND GST ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 M50.00 MPH WILL IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

AT NWS CHICAGO. ALSO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

0446 PM HEAVY RAIN ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 M0.97 INCH WILL IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

RAIN IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES AT NWS CHICAGO.

0447 PM TSTM WND DMG ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF LEWIS UNIVERSITY.

0503 PM TSTM WND GST PALOS PARK 41.66N 87.84W
10/03/2013 E60.00 MPH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH AT 131ST STREET AND
MCCARTHY ROAD.

0512 PM TSTM WND GST OAK LAWN 41.72N 87.75W
10/03/2013 E50.00 MPH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W
10/03/2013 M0.62 INCH COOK IL CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL IN 18 MINUTES.

0532 PM HEAVY RAIN OAK LAWN 41.72N 87.75W
10/03/2013 M0.55 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN 20 MINUTES.

0534 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW CROWN POINT 41.41N 87.39W
10/03/2013 M0.70 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL IN 14 MINUTES.

0539 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S SOUTH CHICAGO 41.73N 87.55W
10/03/2013 COOK IL BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWNED INCLUDING ON VEHICLES IN A
NEIGHBORHOOD. TIME ESTIMATED PER RADAR.


&&

$$

MTF

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KLOT [040041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 040041
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
741 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S SOUTH CHICAGO 41.73N 87.55W
10/03/2013 COOK IL BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWNED INCLUDING ON VEHICLES IN A
NEIGHBORHOOD. TIME ESTIMATED PER RADAR.


&&

$$

MTF

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1924

ACUS11 KWNS 040033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040032
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-040300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN INTO CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040032Z - 040300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT APPEARS MORE ROBUST STORM INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS S-CNTRL IA. INITIATION
TIMING IS UNCLEAR FOR AREAS W OF THE MO RIVER IN SERN NEB.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM.
A LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ATTEMPTS ARE MADE FOR STORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL IA SWWD INTO PERHAPS FAR NRN MO.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A LOOSE BAND OF
DEEPENING CONVECTION FROM FAR NWRN MO INTO CNTRL IA. SEVERAL
SMALLER STORMS ARE EVIDENT VIA KDMX IMAGERY WITH RECENT DETECTION OF
LIGHTNING. THIS MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF
A 35 KT LLJ AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SRN NE/NRN KS THIS EVENING. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING OVER KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY DURING THE
00Z-06Z PERIOD NEAR AND S OF AN ELONGATED WSW-ENE SWD MOVING FRONT.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE REGION ATOP THE RESIDUAL COOL DOME LEFT IN
PLACE OVER IA/NRN MO BY AN EARLY DAY MCS.

IF/ONCE BOTH STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE INCREASE WITH TIME...THE
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY BUOYANT AIRMASS/STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
/35-45 KT/ SAMPLED BY THE 00Z/04 OAX-TOP RAOBS...WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT CAPABLE MAINLY OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. A NARROWING WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
TORNADO SEEMS TO EXIST /ESPECIALLY IN SERN NEB/ GIVEN THE LACK OF
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
LESSEN WITH TIME AFTER DARK.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 10/04/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 40539229 39959590 39869801 40209836 40609813 41929417
42069241 41339202 40539229

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KGJT [040031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 040031
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
631 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E RIFLE 39.55N 107.72W
10/03/2013 M49 MPH GARFIELD CO ASOS

WIND FROM THE NORTHWEST 320


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301636

$$

DC

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KLOT [040010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 040010
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
710 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 PM HEAVY RAIN ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 M0.97 INCH WILL IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

RAIN IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES AT NWS CHICAGO.


&&

$$

RC

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KAPX [032355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 032355
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
755 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0749 PM HEAVY RAIN 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
10/03/2013 M1.54 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

00Z 6 HORULY SYNOPTIC MEASUREMENT.


&&

$$

BERGER

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KGJT [032332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 032332
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
532 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S DE BEQUE 39.31N 108.21W
10/03/2013 MESA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGE... 2 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301635

$$

DC

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KBYZ [032328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 032328
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
528 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 W MELVILLE 46.10N 110.06W
10/03/2013 M15.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL OF 15.0 INCHES...WHICH INCLUDES 5.5 INCHES
THAT FELL IN ONLY TWO HOURS BETWEEN 700 AND 900 AM MDT ON
10/3/2013. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT OF THE THE MOISTURE IS 2.05
INCHES.


&&

$$

CJS

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KLOT [032316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLOT 032316
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
615 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 E1.00 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AT RENWICK AND WEBER ROAD.

0440 PM HAIL ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 E1.00 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AIRPORT ROAD AND WEBER ROAD. RELAYED VIA FACEBOOK.

0444 PM TSTM WND GST ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 M50.00 MPH WILL IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

AT NWS CHICAGO. ALSO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

0447 PM TSTM WND DMG ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF LEWIS UNIVERSITY.

0503 PM TSTM WND GST PALOS PARK 41.66N 87.84W
10/03/2013 E60.00 MPH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH AT 131ST STREET AND
MCCARTHY ROAD.

0512 PM TSTM WND GST OAK LAWN 41.72N 87.75W
10/03/2013 E50.00 MPH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W
10/03/2013 M0.62 INCH COOK IL CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL IN 18 MINUTES.

0532 PM HEAVY RAIN OAK LAWN 41.72N 87.75W
10/03/2013 M0.55 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN 20 MINUTES.

0534 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW CROWN POINT 41.41N 87.39W
10/03/2013 M0.70 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL IN 14 MINUTES.


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [032314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032314
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
614 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM TSTM WND DMG ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF LEWIS UNIVERSITY.


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [032307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032307
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
607 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM HEAVY RAIN OAK LAWN 41.72N 87.75W
10/03/2013 M0.55 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN 20 MINUTES.


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [032306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032306
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
606 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM TSTM WND GST OAK LAWN 41.72N 87.75W
10/03/2013 E50 MPH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RC

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KMKX [032250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 032250
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
550 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E BARABOO 43.47N 89.72W
10/03/2013 SAUK WI EMERGENCY MNGR

A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

MEB

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KLOT [032249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032249
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
549 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0534 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW CROWN POINT 41.41N 87.39W
10/03/2013 M0.70 INCH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL IN 14 MINUTES.


&&

$$

MTF

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KMKX [032248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMKX 032248
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
548 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN BARABOO 43.47N 89.74W
10/03/2013 E1.50 INCH SAUK WI 911 CALL CENTER

RADAR ESTIMATED 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
IN BARABOO...RESULTING IN MINOR STREET FLOODING. SOME
CARS TRYING TO PASS THROUGH THE HIGH WATER STALLED
OUT...MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN.


&&

$$

MEB

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KGJT [032246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 032246
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM SNOW 11 SSW FLAMING GORGE DA 40.76N 109.47W
10/03/2013 E10.0 INCH DAGGETT UT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

UDOT REPORTED SNOWFALL ESTIMATE ON GRASSY SURFACES OVER
HIGHWAY 191 SUMMIT


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301634

$$

PF

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KLOT [032243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032243
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
543 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM TSTM WND GST ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 M50 MPH WILL IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

AT NWS CHICAGO. ALSO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.


&&

$$

RC

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KTFX [032243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 032243
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
442 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 S BIG SKY 44.95N 111.36W
10/03/2013 M8.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HRS. 10 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HRS. LOCATION IS BEAVER CREEK
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7850 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [032239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 032239
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
439 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 SW PONY 45.60N 111.96W
10/03/2013 M25.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

19 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HRS. 25 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 24 HRS. LOCATION IS ALBRO LAKE
SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8300 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KMKX [032239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 032239
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
538 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HEAVY RAIN BARABOO 43.47N 89.74W
10/03/2013 E1.50 INCH SAUK WI 911 CALL CENTER

RADAR ESTIMATED 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
IN BARABOO...RESULTING IN MINOR STREET FLOODING.


&&

$$

WOOD

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KTFX [032237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 032237
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
437 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 18 W GRANT 45.01N 113.43W
10/03/2013 M12.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET

12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HRS. LOCATION IS
LEMHI RIDGE SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8100 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KLOT [032237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLOT 032237
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
537 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 E1.00 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AIRPORT ROAD AND WEBER ROAD. RELAYED VIA FACEBOOK.


&&

$$

RC

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KTFX [032236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 032236
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
436 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SSW JACKSON 45.18N 113.52W
10/03/2013 M13.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET

13 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 12 HRS. LOCATION IS
BLOODY DICK SNOTEL...ELEVATION 7549 FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KBOI [032234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 032234
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
434 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0251 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOUNTAIN HOME AIR FORCE 43.05N 115.87W
10/03/2013 M49.00 MPH ELMORE ID ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND 38 MPH


&&

$$

LCOLIN

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KTFX [032233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 032233
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
433 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 16 SSW JACKSON 45.17N 113.58W
10/03/2013 M11.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT MESONET

12 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 11 INCHES. 13 INCHES IN THE LAST 24
HRS. LOCATION IS DARKHORSE LAKE SNOTEL...ELEVATION 8701
FT.


&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KLOT [032229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032229
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
528 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W
10/03/2013 M0.62 INCH COOK IL CO-OP OBSERVER

FELL IN 18 MINUTES.


&&

$$

MTF

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KLOT [032228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032228
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
528 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 E1.00 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AIRPORT ROAD AND WEBER ROAD.


&&

$$

RC

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KLOT [032224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032224
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
524 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0503 PM TSTM WND GST PALOS PARK 41.66N 87.84W
10/03/2013 E60 MPH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH AT 131ST STREET AND
MCCARTHY ROAD.


&&

$$

RC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1923

ACUS11 KWNS 032209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032208
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-032345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...WRN IND...FAR ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032208Z - 032345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS IL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PARTS OF WRN IND ALSO BEING AFFECTED.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
EWD FROM THE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH LIFT ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL AND
NERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS WITH
THE STRONGER MULTICELL LINE-SEGMENTS. THE MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
BUT THE THREAT FOR HAIL MAY CONTINUE AS NEW CELLS INITIATE.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40008673 40748684 41518755 41788841 41718922 41458975
40829063 39919101 39449106 38929090 38429052 38198974
38608848 39398722 40008673

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KLSX [032209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 032209
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
509 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 PM HAIL TROY 38.98N 90.98W
10/03/2013 E0.25 INCH LINCOLN MO NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

JP

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KLOT [032151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 032151
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
451 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 E1.00 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AT RENWICK AND WEBER ROAD.


&&

$$

RC

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KGRR [032135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 032135
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
535 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE MOUNT PLEASANT 43.62N 84.74W
10/03/2013 M1.13 INCH ISABELLA MI AWOS

1-HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 5 PM EDT.


&&

$$

EBW

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KGJT [032121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 032121
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
321 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM SNOW VERNAL 40.46N 109.53W
10/03/2013 E4.0 INCH UINTAH UT LAW ENFORCEMENT

VERNAL DISPATCH REPORTS 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON HIGHWAY 191
WITH REPORTS OF TRUCKS JACKKNIFING AND CARS SLIDING OFF
ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301633

$$

RENWICK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1922

ACUS11 KWNS 032052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032052
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KS...SOUTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032052Z - 032245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
ALONG A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEB. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW EROSION OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND NORTHERN
KS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
NEAR OMA TO NORTH OF HLC. A WEAK RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS FROM NORTH OF HLC TO NEAR MKC. LOW LEVEL WINDS
NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ARE SLOWLY
BACKING...RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER SOUTHEAST NEB. A FEW
OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER
BEFORE 23Z. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
PRESENT FOR A RISK OF ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/THOMPSON.. 10/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 40180047 40909955 41799629 41429529 40799589 39899800
39769939 39840007 40180047

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KAPX [032045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 032045
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
445 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM HEAVY RAIN TRAVERSE CITY 44.75N 85.60W
10/03/2013 M1.10 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI ASOS

AS REPORTED BY TVC ASOS THROUGH 430 PM.


&&

$$

BERGER

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KAPX [032030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 032030
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
430 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM HEAVY RAIN 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
10/03/2013 M1.15 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

90 MIN TOTAL THRU 425 PM AT NWS OFFICE


&&

$$

JZ

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KTFX [032026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 032026
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
226 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 SW PONY 45.60N 111.96W
10/03/2013 E20.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

24 HR TOTAL - ALBRO LAKE SNOTEL SITE - ELEVATION 8300
FEET


&&

CORRECTED EVENT

$$

EMANUEL

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KTFX [032021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 032021
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
221 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 SW PONY 45.60N 111.96W
10/03/2013 M15.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

24 HR TOTAL - ALBRO LAKE SNOTEL SITE - ELEVATION 8300
FEET


&&

$$

EMANUEL

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KTFX [032021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 032021
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
219 PM MDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 SE CLANCY 46.35N 111.85W
10/03/2013 E10.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT MESONET

ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AT
THE TIZER BASIN SNOTEL. ELEVATION IS 6880 FEET.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 032000
SWODY1
SPC AC 031957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR E/SE NEB
AND EXTREME NE KS INTO IA...

...20Z UPDATE...
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE NEAR A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY WHERE
IT INTERCEPTS A DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEB
AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS. A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE
FOR MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 10/03/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013/

...NEB/IA/MO/KS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS
ESEWD TO ERN UT/WRN CO BY FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF NW KS. A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NEB AND NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. A
SEPARATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM
ERN KS ACROSS NRN MO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT MCV FROM
OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NW MO AND IA. THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING NW-N
CENTRAL MO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...BUT ANY WIND/HAIL RISK WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NEB/SD/MN...WHILE GRADUAL
RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS ACROSS SE NEB/IA AS THE
MORNING COLD POOL ERODES. THE PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF NEB/IA WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE MORNING OUTFLOW. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE THE INTERSECTION OF THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW/FRONT/DRYLINE ALONG THE NRN KS/SRN NEB BORDER BY THIS
EVENING. IF ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS MANAGE TO FORM... THE
COMBINATION OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES THIS EVENING PRIOR TO STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS ERN NEB/IA AS THE LLJ AND WAA INCREASE IN
TANDEM. THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...AND THE SEVERE STORM RISK WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

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KARX [031950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 031950
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0249 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE CRESCO 43.36N 92.10W
10/03/2013 M2.10 INCH HOWARD IA BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

$$

SHEA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030817
SWOD48
SPC AC 030816

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON SUN/D4 WITH A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...THUS PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...IT APPEARS ALSO THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRAIL SWD FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW. AND WITH
DEEP LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE NERN STATES AROUND
SUN/D5...WITH MAINLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FROM D6 AND BEYOND...MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WRN STATES...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE AT
THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 10/03/2013

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KOAX [030803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 030803
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
302 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 AM HAIL FAIRBURY 40.14N 97.18W
10/03/2013 E0.50 INCH JEFFERSON NE EMERGENCY MNGR

A SMALL AMOUNT OF HAIL 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND SMALLER.
ALSO RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT 1.03 INCHES.


&&

$$

MILLER

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KMFL [030802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030802
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM FLOOD 2 S UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI 25.69N 80.29W
10/03/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOUTHWEST 91TH STREET AT SW 59TH COURT WAS FLOODED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300234

$$

KONARIK

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KMFL [030756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030756
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM FLOOD PINECREST 25.66N 80.29W
10/03/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROCK GARDEN AND PINE NEEDLE LANES WERE FLOODED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300233

$$

KONARIK

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KMFL [030754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 030754
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM FLOOD 1 E KENDALL 25.68N 80.31W
10/03/2013 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOUTHWEST 99TH STREET AT 72ND AVENUE WAS REPORTED
FLOODED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1300232

$$

KONARIK

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030641
SWODY3
SPC AC 030640

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER MI...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN INTO THE DAY 3 PERIOD...AND
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SLIGHT RISK AREAS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT MUCH QUICKER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF WHICH SHIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EWD.

THE SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD HAVE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN WI
INTO WRN IL AT 00Z. IF THIS SOLUTION HOLDS...A SQUALL LINE COULD
INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
OVER WI...IL...AND SERN MO. DEEP LAYER FLOW WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD IMPLY A FEW NNEWD MOVING LEWPS/BOWS.

NAM/SREF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS ERN
IL...IND...LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS WRN OH. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE INSTABILITY
FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

...CNTRL GULF COAST/FL PANHANDLE...
NHC FORECASTS INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF LA/AL/MS/FL. WHILE PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCIPIENT
CYCLONE...A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP SHOULD SHEAR
FIELDS BECOME FAVORABLE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

..JEWELL.. 10/03/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030603
SWODY1
SPC AC 030600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NEB INTO
IA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BEFORE ADVANCING EWD
INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD SWLY TO WLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY FURTHER AS IT SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH
THE MS AND OH VALLEYS. A MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE OVER THE SWRN STATES
WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THE SFC A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL STRETCH FROM NRN PORTIONS OF THE
OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THEN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB.
A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH
A DRYLINE EXTENDING THROUGH WRN TX INTO NWRN KS WHERE IT WILL
INTERSECT THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH NEB OVERNIGHT
AS A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING 12Z THURSDAY FROM SERN NEB INTO IA AND
NWRN MO PROMOTED BY A STRONG SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND WEAKEN. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
EARLY STORMS MAY LIFT BACK NWD INTO SERN NEB. IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY IS LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB AS
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS RETURN NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
BENEATH PLUME OF WARM AIR /10C AT 700 MB/ AT BASE OF THE EWD
ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. WHILE THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE...AREAS OF
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF DIABATIC WARMING WHICH IN ADDITION TO
THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A STOUT CAP OVER
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY.

THIS REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN WEST OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ONLY WEAK/SUBTLE FORCING ATTENDING THE
SECONDARY IMPULSE DURING THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG CAP
SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN WARM SECTOR COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF CO
AND WY. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL
EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND INITIATES STORMS NORTH OF THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES INCLUDING RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND FARTHER
NORTH ALONG PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
STORMS TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY NEAR SFC
BASED STORMS INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 10/03/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030548
SWODY2
SPC AC 030546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB...IA...SRN
MN...WI...NWRN MO...ERN KS...NWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTS A SLOWER
EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER TROUGH THAN COMPARED TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
NAM MODEL WHICH IS FARTHER E WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER WITH THE
UPPER LOW VALID AT 00Z. FOR THIS OUTLOOK...THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED.

DURING THE DAY...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WRN KS AND
INTO CNTRL NEB...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM FSD/SUX EWD
ACROSS NRN IA OR SRN MN AND INTO WRN WI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
REINFORCED BY EPISODES OF RAIN AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT MAY RETURN SLIGHTLY AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS FRONT WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE
ERN NEB LOW...INTO CNTRL KS...NWRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED...WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS FROM ERN NEB INTO IA...AND PERHAPS SRN MN BY EVENING.

...ERN NEB...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM FRONT EARLY
WITH A THREAT OF HAIL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ALONG THE
FRONT...IT COULD MODULATE ITS LATITUDINAL LOCATION. HEATING WILL
OCCUR S OF THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEARS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE...WITH LARGE
LOOPING HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL CONDITIONALLY
FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GFS AND
EURO BOTH HAVE STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNALS ACROSS NRN IA...FAR SRN
MN...AND SWRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING CLUSTERS OF
SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE.

MEANWHILE TO THE SW...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SFC LOW CENTER ACROSS ERN NEB BY 21-00Z. GFS
SHOWS CLASSIC LOADED GUN TYPE SOUNDINGS OVER ERN NEB AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MIXED LAYERS JUST W OF THE
FRONT AT PEAK HEATING. WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
FORCING...THE AREA FROM ERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF THE COLD AIR SURGES
QUICKER THAN FORECAST...A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE COULD RESULT...BUT
WITH EMBEDDED ROTATION AND LEWPS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS.

A MODERATE RISK COULD BE ISSUED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS PREDICTABILITY
OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES.

...OK...ERN KS...WRN MO...
LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HEATING
AND UPPER COOLING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND QUICKLY BECOME A SQUALL LINE. THE STRONG FORCING AS
WELL AS AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT A LARGE LINEAR MCS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
AREAS OF LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE ONCE
INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS MERGE. THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE INTO
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS THE MCS.

..JEWELL.. 10/03/2013

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KHNX [030414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 030414
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
914 PM PDT WED OCT 2 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0857 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E MOJAVE 35.06N 118.15W
10/02/2013 M49 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MESONET STATION MOJAVE NAT TEST PILOT
/AT407/



&&

$$

NWS HANFORD CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
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KHNX [030414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 030414
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
913 PM PDT WED OCT 2 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW MOJAVE 35.11N 118.24W
10/02/2013 M60 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MESONET STATION CACHE CREEK CHP /AU563/



&&

$$

NWS HANFORD CA
IRIS SYSTEM

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