MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1923

ACUS11 KWNS 032209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032208
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-032345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...WRN IND...FAR ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032208Z - 032345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS IL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PARTS OF WRN IND ALSO BEING AFFECTED.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING
EWD FROM THE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. FORCING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH LIFT ON THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL AND
NERN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS WITH
THE STRONGER MULTICELL LINE-SEGMENTS. THE MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
BUT THE THREAT FOR HAIL MAY CONTINUE AS NEW CELLS INITIATE.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40008673 40748684 41518755 41788841 41718922 41458975
40829063 39919101 39449106 38929090 38429052 38198974
38608848 39398722 40008673

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