KJAX [170439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170439
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1139 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANDARIN 30.15N 81.64W
01/16/2010 M43.00 MPH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH AND
REPORTED SMALL LIMBS DOWN THROUGHOUT MANDARIN WITH
OCCASIONAL POWER FLICKERS.

&&

$$

SHULER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170054
SWODY1
SPC AC 170053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOME OF COASTAL W-CENTRAL/SWRN
FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS.
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- INITIALLY ANALYZED OVER NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX
NEAR RED RIVER -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA
OVERNIGHT...OPENING INTO SMALL BUT INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR END
OF PERIOD OVER SWRN MS. MEANWHILE...SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF COASTAL SERN LA -- IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS MIDDLE-ERN TN OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED NEAR MCB AT 23Z IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AL
OVERNIGHT AND OCCLUDE...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS AL
COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE. ADJACENT WARM FRONT HAS BECOME
ILL-DEFINED BECAUSE OF PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BECOMES
SHARPER AGAIN FROM NEAR OCF TO ABOUT 50 SE SAV...ENEWD TO JUST S OF
BUOY 41004 AND OFFSHORE NC. SECONDARY LOW IS FCST TO FORM DURING
09Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN SC/SERN NC. DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS -- GENERALLY AFTER ABOUT 08Z...WARM FRONT MAY
IMPINGE ON NARROW COASTAL AREA BETWEEN SAV-MHX.

...FL...
AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF
FL W COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME VEERING OF FLOW TONIGHT WILL REDUCE BOTH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HODOGRAPH SIZE. INITIAL LINE OF TSTMS
FROM OFFSHORE TBW AREA SWWD TO YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS SHOWN STG-SVR
CHARACTERISTICS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF ERN GULF...AS EVIDENT
FROM SATELLITE SIGNATURES AND LONG-RANGE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
PATTERNS. HOWEVER..CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY HAS WEAKENED WHEN APCHG
COAST...BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY STABLE/LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER
PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL FL AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A FEW
BOW ECHOES OR SUPERCELLS MAY SURVIVE TO COAST...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN NARROW AREA OF CATEGORICAL-CRITERIA PROBABILITIES.

AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL -- CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
LOW-MID 60S F...WILL UNDERGO ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING TO MAINTAIN
VERY STG MLCINH INLAND...ALTHOUGH TBW SOUNDING SHOWED 300-400 J/KG
OF WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE. MOIST ADVECTION FROM HIGHER-THETAE AIR
MASS OVER S FL AND STRAITS WILL YIELD BUOYANCY ALONG SW COAST MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLING EYW SOUNDING WITH BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG MLCAPE.
THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME MAINTENANCE OF OFFSHORE CONVECTION A SHORT
DISTANCE INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING.

FARTHER NW ACROSS FL PANHANDLE AND COASTAL BEND...AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS LINE HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PRIOR CONVECTION/PRECIP...AND AREA
OF RELATIVELY COLD SST CONTRIBUTES TO SHALLOW STABLE LAYER OVER AND
DOWNSTREAM FROM APALACHEE BAY. STILL...SCATTERED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED...MOSTLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
COLD FROPA AND MOVE NEWD FROM GULF.

...COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS...
VERY CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE. ALTHOUGH MORE
PROBABLE OFFSHORE...SFC-BASED SUPERCELL WITH TORNADO...OR DAMAGING
WIND FROM SMALL BOW ECHOES...CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOTALLY NEAR COAST
LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNCONDITIONAL POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TOO
LOW TO UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SVR OUTLOOK...MAINLY BECAUSE IT
APPEARS THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE VERY WEAK TO NONEXISTENT FOR SFC-BASED
PARCELS.

AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH 50-65
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.
ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST INVOF SFC WARM FRONT...CONTRIBUTING
TO LIKELIHOOD OF 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 300 J/KG FOR MOST PROBABLE
CELL MOTIONS. MAIN CONCERN IS LACK OF BUOYANCY AND RELATED STG
MLCINH EXPECTED. ATLANTIC AIR MASS S OF WARM FRONT STILL IS
UNDERGOING MODIFICATION...WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID 60S OVER
AND E OF THAT SEGMENT OF GULF STREAM OFF NRN FL...TRENDING TO LOW
60S INVOF WARM FRONT. THIS IS A FEW DEG F LESS THE EARLIER PROGS
FROM OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF...WHICH WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD.
MOIST ADVECTION AND SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MARINE MODIFICATION
SHOULD BOOST DEW POINTS TO MID 60S CLOSER TO WARM FRONT...BUT THIS
STILL MAY NOT YIELD SUFFICIENT THETAE TO RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS. IMPORTANT LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE VERY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE APPRECIABLY FROM
THOSE IN 00Z CHS RAOB. ALSO...EXTENSIVE...LONG-LASTING...ANTECEDENT
AREA OF PRECIP WILL MITIGATE INLAND DESTABILIZATION TENDENCIES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2010

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KMFR [170030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 170030
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
430 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0429 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.18W
01/16/2010 M1.05 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 4 PM PST

&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 162002
SWODY1
SPC AC 162000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FL...

...FL/SOUTHERN GA TO EASTERN SC...
FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING OUTLOOK/FORECAST SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING FL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
GA/SC/NC. A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME PER LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF POSSIBLE
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT/INLAND WARM FRONTAL PENETRATION WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

..GUYER.. 01/16/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010/

...NERN GULF COAST ACROSS FL/SRN GA AND ERN SC...
DEEP SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE
THREAT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SE ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TODAY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SEWD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT THIS
TRAILING SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND EJECT MAJORITY OF LEADING SYSTEM NEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/SRN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH
MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL EJECT ACROSS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...SEASONABLY STRONG WNWLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE FL
PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER FL INDICATE PRECEDING CAP AND ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH VEERING SFC WINDS FROM SELY TO MORE SSELY
AND CAPPING WILL AID IN ADVECTING MID/UPPER 60S F DEW POINTS INTO
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NRN FL THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SHALLOW MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE OVER SERN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL FL DURING
THE DAY...WITH MAIN AREA OF TSTMS SPREADING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN BANDS AFTER DARK AS PRIMARY DEEP ASCENT SHIFTS
EWD INVOF WEAKENING NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH.

MAIN LIMITING CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL MLCAPE /AOB 500 J KG-1/...HOWEVER LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN. GIVEN MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
AND INCREASING SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT PROBABILITIES OF
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES FOR SLGT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH LOWER
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL/FAR SRN
GA GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. WITH SOME INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE EVIDENT LATE TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF SERN GA/ERN
SC...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALSO REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THIS AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

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KOTX [161830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 161830
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1029 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN BONNERS FERRY 48.69N 116.32W
01/16/2010 U0.00 INCH BOUNDARY ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

BONNERS FERRY SHERIFF REPORTED WASHOUT ON SELKIRK ROAD 9
MILES NORTH OF SANDPOINT.

&&

$$

RB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161731
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EASTERN CAROLINAS...
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCORDINGLY ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD IN VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS. WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 50-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRE-SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. WHILE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/LOW RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES WILL EXIST...THE DEGREE OF AN INLAND MARITIME WARM
SECTOR INFLUX/MODEST INSTABILITY ARE THE PRIMARY UNKNOWNS AND/OR
LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK. IF IT
APPEARS A GREATER MARITIME TROPICAL INFLUX WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST VA...THEN A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK COULD BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

...FL PENINSULA...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...WITH ONGOING BANDS OF CONVECTION
LIKELY ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A POSSIBLE ONGOING AND/OR DAYTIME SEVERE
RISK IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.
BUT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
IN NATURE.

..GUYER.. 01/16/2010

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KMFR [161634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 161634
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
01/16/2010 M1.80 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1800 PST FRIDAY THROUGH 0800 SATURDAY.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160952
SWOD48
SPC AC 160951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GFS...MREF MEMBERS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY
6...BEFORE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DAY 7-8. ECMWF HAS
DEMONSTRATED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WRN GULF AND ERN TX TUESDAY...SHIFTING
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE STRONG
PACIFIC UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE EWD AND INTERACT WITH THE RETURNING
MOIST AXIS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO FORM WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATE TUESDAY IN ERN TX...THEN
EXPAND THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED BUT COULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.

GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A RISK AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME...BUT A RAMP UP IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 01/16/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160806
SWODY3
SPC AC 160805

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

QUASI-ZONAL PROGRESSIVE REGIME WITH A VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTER OVER THE U.S. MONDAY. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES NORTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE INTO
THE WRN STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL AND SRN CA COASTAL AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
CNTRL AND NRN CA WITHIN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LIFT NORTH OF
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVE INLAND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN COASTAL
AREAS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS BENEATH THE
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN FORECAST 60+ KT LOW LEVEL
JET ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH...A MODEST THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE.

..DIAL.. 01/16/2010

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KLCH [160650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 160650
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
01/15/2010 M47.00 MPH GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SRST2 MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST
OF 47 MPH.

0100 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 E SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.87W
01/15/2010 M40.00 MPH GMZ430 LA C-MAN STATION

0110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SW JOHNSON BAYOU 29.69N 93.73W
01/15/2010 M44.00 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 17 REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 44 WITH PK WIND GUST TO 65 MPH WHICH LASTED FOR
1 HOUR.

0146 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
01/15/2010 M59.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 217.

0146 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 27 S HOLLY BEACH 29.39N 93.42W
01/15/2010 M61.00 MPH GMZ470 LA BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 267.

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 29.59N 93.15W
01/15/2010 M50.00 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 71.

0224 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CAMERON 29.76N 93.34W
01/15/2010 M48.00 MPH GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDE GAGE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
39 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST OF 48 MPH.

0236 PM LOW ASTR TIDES 3 SW CAMERON 29.77N 93.34W
01/15/2010 GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDE GAGE FELL FROM 2.1 FT MLLW AT
1954Z TO -0.15 FT MLLW AT 2036Z THEN ROSE TO 3.06 FT MLLW
AT 2118Z. EVENT OCCURRED WITHIN AN 84 MINUTE TIME SPAN.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S LAKE CHARLES 30.14N 93.20W
01/15/2010 M51.00 MPH CALCASIEU LA ASOS

LCH ASOS REPORTED A 51 MPH WIND GUST

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
01/15/2010 CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC

LIDS BLOWN OFF BARGES IN SHIP CHANNEL NEAR I-210 BRIDGE.

0448 PM LOW ASTR TIDES 11 SE PECAN ISLAND 29.56N 92.31W
01/15/2010 VERMILION LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

FRESHWATER CANAL LOCKS NOS TIDE GAGE FELL FROM 2.56 FT
MLLW AT 2224Z TO -1.55 FT MLLW AT 2248Z THEN ROSE TO 3.66
FT MLLW AT 2300Z. EVENT OCCURRED WITHIN A 36 MINUTE TIME
SPAN.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [160648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 160648
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
01/15/2010 M47.00 MPH GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SRST2 MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST
OF 47 MPH.

0224 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CAMERON 29.76N 93.34W
01/15/2010 M48.00 MPH GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDE GAGE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
39 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST OF 48 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160639
SWODY2
SPC AC 160638

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
SWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SERN TX WILL EJECT
NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY.
SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL DROP SWD INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES...REACHING THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL
OCCLUDED LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS...WHILE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER NC WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT
REGION AND DEEPENS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN NC...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD SUNDAY EVENING. TRAILING PORTIONS OF FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...REACHING THE SRN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CAROLINAS...

LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT INLAND ALONG STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL
JET SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN VERY MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN ZONE OF
DEEP ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SHALLOW PRE-FRONTAL LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LARGE
HODOGRAPHS. A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
EVENT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING WILL EXIST IN DRY-SLOT REGION IN
WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A LEAST WEAK
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX
OUT. ADDITIONAL SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

...FL...

PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL FL PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT CONCERN IS THAT
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL. STRONGER
DEEP FORCING AND PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...SUGGESTING OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD.

..DIAL.. 01/16/2010

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KLCH [160636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 160636
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 PM LOW ASTR TIDES 3 SW CAMERON 29.77N 93.34W
01/15/2010 GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDE GAGE FELL FROM 2.1 FT MLLW AT
1954Z TO -0.15 FT MLLW AT 2036Z THEN ROSE TO 3.06 FT MLLW
AT 2118Z. EVENT OCCURRED WITHIN AN 84 MINUTE TIME SPAN.

0448 PM LOW ASTR TIDES 11 SE PECAN ISLAND 29.56N 92.31W
01/15/2010 VERMILION LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

FRESHWATER CANAL LOCKS NOS TIDE GAGE FELL FROM 2.56 FT
MLLW AT 2224Z TO -1.55 FT MLLW AT 2248Z THEN ROSE TO 3.66
FT MLLW AT 2300Z. EVENT OCCURRED WITHIN A 36 MINUTE TIME
SPAN.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160558
SWODY1
SPC AC 160556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS...S OF NRN-STREAM FLOW
BELT ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER. BROADLY CYCLONIC SRN STREAM FLOW IS
FCST AROUND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH PREDICTED TO MOVE FROM SRN PLAINS EWD
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. MESO-ALPHA TO SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH IS
CHARACTERIZED BY COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THREE SMALLER-SCALE BUT
WELL-DEFINED PERTURBATIONS. ATTM...TWO DISTINCT/CLOSED CIRCULATIONS
ARE ANALYZED ALOFT -- ONE CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TX COASTAL
PLAINS...ANOTHER DIGGING SSEWD FROM SWRN KS. THIRD SIGNIFICANT
PERTURBATION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLOSED BEFORE...AND IS
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM OVER CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL
MEX. KS LOW IS FCST TO PIVOT SEWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL TX THROUGH
17/00Z...THEN EWD ACROSS NRN LA DURING LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY ABSORBING LOW NOW OVER S TX. MEANWHILE...MEX
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO TURN NEWD...ACCELERATE AND
DEAMPLIFY...EJECTING ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL GULF. OPERATIONAL
WRF/SPECTRAL...EARLIER ECMWF RUN AND MOST SREF MEMBERS REASONABLY
PROG THIS FEATURE TO MOVE NEWD OVER SERN LA AROUND 17/00Z...THEN
OVER SRN APPALACHIANS BY 17/12Z.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OFFSHORE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD OVER SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT
WEAKENING AS OCCLUSION TRIPLE-POINT LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER E OVER
N-CENTRAL GULF. LATTER LOW...IN TURN...IS EXPECTED TO LIFT QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 16/18Z AND
16/00Z...LEAVING MARINE/WARM FRONTAL ZONE BEHIND OVER GULF WATERS.
SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD ACROSS ERN GA
AND SC LATE IN PERIOD...DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...FL PANHANDLE TO COASTAL BEND...SERN AL...SWRN GA...
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SVR...AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...EACH ARE PROBABLE ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT AND SE OF
ERN SFC LOW. THEREFORE...KEY FACTOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE
PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE
INFLOW LAYER WILL BE ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR SFC ALONG AND S OF WARM
FRONT...AND ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT TRAILING GENERALLY SWD/SSWWD
FROM ERN SFC LOW. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MAY NOT
REACH LAND OVER THIS REGION GIVEN COMBINATION OF
1. STG ISALLOBARIC FORCING E AND NE OF LOW...MAINTAINING ELY
COMPONENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE AND MORE INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AT SFC...AND
2. EXTENSIVE TSTMS AND PRECIP LIKELY ACROSS NRN GULF...ON BOTH SIDES
OF WARM FRONT.

OBSERVED POCKET OF STABLE AIR OVER NERN GULF -- RELATED TO
RELATIVELY COLD/SHALLOW SHELF WATERS -- IS WELL-RECOGNIZED BY MOST
OPERATIONAL PROGS...AND EVERY SREF PARTICIPANT BUT THE 5 RSM
MEMBERS. SHALLOW LAYER OF THIS AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INLAND OVER ERN
PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA...AND SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL WITH SQUALL
LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN GULF.

GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND MITIGATING FACTORS...SVR POTENTIAL
OVER LAND REMAINS VERY CONDITIONAL. THEREFORE...LOW-END
UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
NOW...EMPHASIZING MRGL WIND AND TORNADO THREATS.

...PENINSULAR FL TO COASTAL CAROLINAS...
FOR SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT REASONS...SHALLOW LAYER OF RELATIVELY
COOL/STABLE AIR ALSO COULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SVR EVENT OVER THIS
REGION...HOWEVER STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD OF
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE DOES COMPEL AT LEAST MRGL SVR WIND AND TORNADO
PROBABILITIES ATTM. SOME PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL-THRESHOLD SVR PROBABILITIES IF
DESTABILIZATION TRENDS BEGIN TO APPEAR ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
THAN NOW PROGGED.

UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
SQUALL LINE ACROSS PENINSULAR FL NNEWD TO COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE
RELATED MAINLY TO COMBINATION OF
1. ANTECEDENT LOW THETAE AND LONG UPSTREAM FETCH OF ONLY PARTLY
MODIFIED AIR MASS...PRECLUDING FULL MARITIME/TROPICAL RECOVERY
ACROSS THIS REGION PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE PASSAGE...AND
2. PATH OF SFC CYCLONE AND RELATED ISALLOBARIC PATTERN RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED/SLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW ACROSS DIABATICALLY COOLED
NOCTURNAL LANDMASS AND/OR INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED MARINE AIR.

..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2010

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KMFR [160511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160511
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PST FRI JAN 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
01/15/2010 M1.03 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL FROM 2PM - 9PM PST.

&&

$$

DW

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