KBOU [220209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 220209
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
709 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
12/21/2011 M1.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM SNOW 1 NW ERIE 40.04N 105.06W
12/21/2011 M1.5 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0645 PM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM SNOW 2 NNW LONGMONT 40.20N 105.13W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOWFALL RATE ONE AND ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR

0613 PM SNOW GOLDEN 39.74N 105.21W
12/21/2011 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [220203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 220203
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
703 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW 1 NW ERIE 40.04N 105.06W
12/21/2011 M1.5 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0645 PM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM SNOW 2 NNW LONGMONT 40.20N 105.13W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOWFALL RATE ONE AND ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR

0613 PM SNOW GOLDEN 39.74N 105.21W
12/21/2011 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [220158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 220158
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
658 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM SNOW 2 NNW LONGMONT 40.20N 105.13W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOWFALL RATE ONE AND ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR

0613 PM SNOW GOLDEN 39.74N 105.21W
12/21/2011 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [220134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 220134
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
634 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM SNOW 2 NNW LONGMONT 40.20N 105.13W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOWFALL RATE ONE AND ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR

0613 PM SNOW GOLDEN 39.74N 105.21W
12/21/2011 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [220119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 220119
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
619 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM SNOW GOLDEN 39.74N 105.21W
12/21/2011 M0.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KCYS [220114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 220114
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
614 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM SNOW 5 N HAWK SPRINGS 41.86N 104.27W
12/21/2011 E3.0 INCH GOSHEN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES. VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE.

0530 PM SNOW 2 W FORT LARAMIE 42.21N 104.56W
12/21/2011 E4.5 INCH GOSHEN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES.

0530 PM SNOW 6 SE REDBIRD 43.18N 104.19W
12/21/2011 E6.0 INCH NIOBRARA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES.

0530 PM SNOW 17 NE DOUGLAS 42.93N 105.16W
12/21/2011 E5.0 INCH CONVERSE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME DRIFTING. ESTIMATED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES.

0530 PM SNOW DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
12/21/2011 E6.0 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

STILL SNOWING.

0530 PM SNOW WHEATLAND 42.05N 104.96W
12/21/2011 E2.0 INCH PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES.

0530 PM SNOW TORRINGTON 42.07N 104.18W
12/21/2011 E4.0 INCH GOSHEN WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES.

0530 PM SNOW CHADRON 42.83N 103.00W
12/21/2011 E0.5 INCH DAWES NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 PM SNOW ALLIANCE 42.10N 102.87W
12/21/2011 E0.5 INCH BOX BUTTE NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 PM SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
12/21/2011 E1.0 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL VEHICLE ACCIDENTS.

0545 PM SNOW SCOTTSBLUFF 41.87N 103.66W
12/21/2011 E2.0 INCH SCOTTS BLUFF NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

HAMMER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220056
SWODY1
SPC AC 220054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WRN PORTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF HAD BEGUN TO
SLOWLY RETREAT OFF THE LOWER TX GULF COAST IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL MEXICO/BIG BEND AREA SHIFTS E/NEWD INTO
CNTRL/SRN TX OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MID-LEVEL DCVA
WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN/ERN TX INTO WRN/NRN LA. OPERATIONAL AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT THAT APPRECIABLE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OUTSIDE OF COASTAL
SERN LA...WITH STORMS ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL FORM PRIOR TO 12Z...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL RISK.

..GRAMS.. 12/22/2011

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KLBF [220022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 220022
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM SLEET ANSELMO 41.62N 99.86W
12/21/2011 U0.00 INCH CUSTER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN BEGAN ABOUT 545 PM.

&&

$$

SPRINGER

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KCYS [220009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 220009
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
509 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 PM HEAVY SNOW GLENROCK 42.86N 105.86W
12/21/2011 M7.0 INCH CONVERSE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 7 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 200 PM MST WITH

FLURRIES AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SINCE 200 PM.

&&

$$

RUBIN

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KPIH [220009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 220009
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
509 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 PM SNOW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.46W
12/21/2011 M3.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL SINCE 7 AM.

&&

$$

DPHELPS

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KTFX [220000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 220000
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 WNW MARYSVILLE 46.76N 112.32W
12/21/2011 M9.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT PUBLIC

GREAT DIVIDE SKI AREA - 9 INCHES NEW SNOW AT BASE 14
INCHES AT TOP - SINCE 7AM

&&

$$

EMANUEL

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KTAE [212329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 212329
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
629 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0329 PM TORNADO ELBA 31.42N 86.08W
12/21/2011 COFFEE AL PUBLIC

POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AS IT DEVELOPED
BEHIND THEIR HOME AND MOVED EAST. THE REPORT WAS RELAYED
TO THE ELBA POLICE DEPT. THIS REPORT WAS UTLIMATELY
FORWARDED TO NWS A FEW HOURS LATER. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE
WERE RECEIVED.

&&

$$

WOOL

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KPIH [212252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 212252
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
352 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM SNOW NE IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID BROADCAST MEDIA

SNOWFALL AT KIFI/KIDK STUDIOS

&&

$$

JKEYES

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KRIW [212229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 212229
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
325 PM MDT WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1207 PM SNOW 2 WSW CODY 44.51N 109.09W
12/21/2011 M2.00 INCHES PARK WY COCORAHS

1207 PM SNOW 2 SSW LOVELL 44.80N 108.41W
12/21/2011 M1.40 INCHES BIG HORN WY COCORAHS

1208 PM SNOW MOOSE 43.65N 110.71W
12/21/2011 M1.00 INCHES TETON WY COCORAHS

1209 PM SNOW EDGERTON 43.41N 106.24W
12/21/2011 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1210 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 44.27N 108.87W
12/21/2011 M4.00 INCHES PARK WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1211 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 44.15N 108.87W
12/21/2011 M4.50 INCHES PARK WY PUBLIC

1216 PM SNOW 8 W THERMOPOLIS 43.66N 108.38W
12/21/2011 M2.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1216 PM SNOW 4 SSW BUFFALO 44.28N 106.73W
12/21/2011 M1.50 INCHES JOHNSON WY COCORAHS

1216 PM SNOW BUFFALO 44.34N 106.71W
12/21/2011 M1.50 INCHES JOHNSON WY COCORAHS

1216 PM SNOW 1 NW RED BUTTE 42.82N 106.41W
12/21/2011 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

1217 PM SNOW ARAPAHOE 42.96N 108.48W
12/21/2011 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

1218 PM SNOW 4 SE CODY 44.48N 108.99W
12/21/2011 M2.50 INCHES PARK WY COCORAHS

1218 PM SNOW TEN SLEEP 44.03N 107.45W
12/21/2011 M4.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1219 PM SNOW 2 SE RIVERTON 43.01N 108.39W
12/21/2011 M0.70 INCHES FREMONT WY COCORAHS

1219 PM SNOW MONETA 43.16N 107.73W
12/21/2011 M4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

1219 PM SNOW HUDSON 42.89N 108.58W
12/21/2011 M1.50 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

1219 PM SNOW 6 W CASPER 42.88N 106.42W
12/21/2011 M1.90 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER AIRPORT

1223 PM SNOW 2 ENE CASPER 42.84N 106.29W
12/21/2011 M5.40 INCHES NATRONA WY COCORAHS

1228 PM SNOW 31 WSW THERMOPOLIS 43.54N 108.81W
12/21/2011 M2.10 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0201 PM HEAVY SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.32W
12/21/2011 M6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0201 PM SNOW PARADISE VALLEY 42.82N 106.39W
12/21/2011 M2.60 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0201 PM SNOW 1 S LANDER 42.80N 108.72W
12/21/2011 M0.90 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

LANDER AIRPORT

0202 PM SNOW KAYCEE 43.71N 106.63W
12/21/2011 M3.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0202 PM SNOW 17 E KAYCEE 43.70N 106.29W
12/21/2011 M4.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY COCORAHS

0202 PM SNOW CODY 44.53N 109.04W
12/21/2011 M2.00 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0203 PM SNOW CODY 44.53N 109.06W
12/21/2011 M2.00 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0204 PM SNOW POWDER RIVER 43.03N 106.98W
12/21/2011 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY POST OFFICE

0204 PM HEAVY SNOW HILAND 43.11N 107.34W
12/21/2011 M6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY PUBLIC

0204 PM SNOW THERMOPOLIS 43.64N 108.22W
12/21/2011 M4.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0209 PM SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.37W
12/21/2011 M1.90 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0256 PM SNOW 1 WSW CANYON 44.72N 110.51W
12/21/2011 E3.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

CANYON SNOTEL

0256 PM SNOW 5 N SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.21N 110.67W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL

0256 PM SNOW 16 N PAHASKA 44.73N 109.91W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

PARKER PEAK SNOTEL

0256 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 W PAHASKA 44.48N 110.16W
12/21/2011 E6.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL

0257 PM SNOW 4 WSW PAHASKA 44.48N 110.04W
12/21/2011 E3.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL

0257 PM SNOW 14 ESE OLD FAITHFUL 44.37N 110.58W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL

0257 PM SNOW 25 NE MORAN JUNCTION 44.15N 110.22W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL

0257 PM SNOW 21 W CLARK 44.94N 109.57W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL

0257 PM HEAVY SNOW 19 WSW WAPITI 44.38N 109.79W
12/21/2011 E9.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BLACKWATER SNOTEL

0257 PM SNOW 11 N DUBOIS 43.70N 109.67W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL

0257 PM SNOW 16 NE DUBOIS 43.67N 109.37W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

CASTLE CREEK SNOTEL

0258 PM SNOW 14 NE PAHASKA 44.65N 109.78W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

EVENING STAR SNOTEL

0258 PM HEAVY SNOW 30 SW MEETEETSE 43.86N 109.32W
12/21/2011 E7.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

KIRWIN SNOTEL

0258 PM HEAVY SNOW 18 SW CODY 44.30N 109.24W
12/21/2011 E18.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

MARQUETTE SNOTEL

0258 PM HEAVY SNOW 40 W THERMOPOLIS 43.66N 109.01W
12/21/2011 E7.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY MESONET

OWL CREEK SNOTEL

0258 PM HEAVY SNOW 18 WSW MEETEETSE 44.03N 109.18W
12/21/2011 E11.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL

0258 PM SNOW 26 WSW CLARK 44.80N 109.66W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

WOLVERINE SNOTEL

0259 PM SNOW 56 SW CODY 43.93N 109.82W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

YOUNTS PEAK SNOTEL

0259 PM SNOW 28 E LOVELL 44.80N 107.84W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

0259 PM SNOW 14 NE SHELL 44.68N 107.58W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL

0259 PM HEAVY SNOW 13 W BARNUM 43.63N 107.18W
12/21/2011 E7.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL

0259 PM SNOW 24 SW BUFFALO 44.16N 107.13W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL

0259 PM SNOW 18 E SHELL 44.50N 107.43W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

SHELL CREEK SNOTEL

0300 PM SNOW 14 WNW MAYOWORTH 43.89N 107.06W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL

0300 PM SNOW 17 W BUFFALO 44.40N 107.06W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 21 SW BARNUM 43.47N 107.24W
12/21/2011 E7.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

GRAVE SPRING SNOTEL

0300 PM SNOW 14 WSW BUFFALO 44.26N 106.98W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

HANSEN SAWMILL SNOTEL

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 27 NW BUFFALO 44.54N 107.17W
12/21/2011 E9.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

LITTLE GOOSE SNOTEL

0300 PM SNOW 16 W BUFFALO 44.34N 107.02W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

SOLDIER PARK SNOTEL

0301 PM SNOW 8 NNE MORAN JUNCTION 43.95N 110.45W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

BASE CAMP SNOTEL

0301 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 ENE ALTA 43.78N 110.93W
12/21/2011 E11.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL

0301 PM SNOW 10 N BONDURANT 43.34N 110.43W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRANITE CREEK SNOTEL

0301 PM SNOW 20 NE BONDURANT 43.39N 110.13W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL

0301 PM SNOW 14 E BONDURANT 43.17N 110.14W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

LOOMIS PARK SNOTEL

0302 PM SNOW 8 WNW JACKSON 43.52N 110.91W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL

0302 PM SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.13N 110.67W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

SNAKE RIVER STN SNOTEL

0302 PM SNOW 25 NW DUBOIS 43.75N 110.06W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL

0302 PM SNOW 24 ESE BOULDER 42.65N 109.26W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

0303 PM SNOW 16 SW DUBOIS 43.38N 109.88W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

GUNSITE PASS SNOTEL

0303 PM SNOW 22 N CORA 43.25N 110.02W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL

0303 PM SNOW 25 SW LANDER 42.58N 109.08W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

LARSEN CREEK SNOTEL

0303 PM SNOW 12 N CORA 43.11N 109.95W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

NEW FORK LAKE SNOTEL

0303 PM SNOW 16 E BOULDER 42.71N 109.41W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

POCKET CREEK SNOTEL

0303 PM SNOW 14 W CROWHEART 43.28N 109.45W
12/21/2011 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

0303 PM SNOW 19 SSW LANDER 42.59N 108.90W
12/21/2011 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

0304 PM SNOW 18 W LANDER 42.87N 109.09W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

0306 PM SNOW 6 WSW DUBOIS 43.50N 109.75W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

LITTLE WARM SNOTEL

0306 PM SNOW LANDER 42.82N 108.74W
12/21/2011 M1.50 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0309 PM SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.41W
12/21/2011 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0311 PM SNOW 7 NW ATLANTIC CITY 42.57N 108.84W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

0311 PM SNOW 26 NW LANDER 43.03N 109.17W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

0311 PM SNOW 12 SW LANDER 42.70N 108.90W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL

0311 PM HEAVY SNOW 7 S CASPER 42.73N 106.35W
12/21/2011 M9.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER MOUNTAIN

0311 PM SNOW 22 SSE CASPER 42.57N 106.09W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

RENO HILL SNOTEL

0311 PM SNOW 17.2 E THAYNE 42.97N 110.61W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

BLIND BULL SUMMIT

0311 PM SNOW 8 SE AFTON 42.65N 110.81W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL

0312 PM SNOW 26 N KEMMERER 42.15N 110.68W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

HAMS FORK SNOTEL

0312 PM SNOW 36 N KEMMERER 42.30N 110.68W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL

0312 PM SNOW 15 NNE COKEVILLE 42.27N 110.81W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

KELLEY RANGER STATION SNOTEL

0313 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 S AFTON 42.51N 110.91W
12/21/2011 E7.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

SALT RIVER SUMMIT SNOTEL

0313 PM SNOW SNIDER BASIN 42.49N 110.52W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

0313 PM SNOW 19 SE AFTON 42.53N 110.66W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL

0314 PM SNOW 17 E AFTON 42.76N 110.59W
12/21/2011 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL

0314 PM SNOW 8 NE AFTON 42.82N 110.84W
12/21/2011 E5.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL

0314 PM SNOW 12 ESE BONDURANT 43.13N 110.20W
12/21/2011 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

EAST RIM DIVIDE SNOTEL

0317 PM SNOW POWELL 44.75N 108.76W
12/21/2011 M1.00 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KUNR [212226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 212226
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 NNW SAINT ONGE 44.58N 103.75W
12/21/2011 M4.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW BEGAN ABOUT 0600 MST

&&

$$

DBARBER

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KPBZ [212210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 212210
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
510 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMER CITY 40.54N 79.16W
12/21/2011 INDIANA PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DONW ON CAR ON ROUTE 119 NEAR HOMER CITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1101270

$$

XX

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KTFX [212131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 212131
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
231 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BYNUM 47.98N 112.31W
12/20/2011 M58 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

EMANUEL

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KTFX [212024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 212024
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
124 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 ESE GALLATIN GATEWAY 45.50N 110.97W
12/21/2011 M12.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

LICK CREEK SNOTEL REPORTS 12-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 12.0
INCHES. ELEVATION 6860 FEET.

&&

$$

MLV

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KUNR [212012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 212012
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
112 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM HEAVY SNOW 25 WSW WRIGHT 43.61N 105.96W
12/21/2011 M5.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KCLARK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211942
SWODY1
SPC AC 211940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE
UPPER OH VALLEY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING OUTLOOK. INSTABILITY
HAS REMAINED VERY WEAK ACROSS OH/WV/PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...PARTIAL SUNSHINE HAS STEEPENED LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A REGION OF INTENSE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST OH RECENTLY
PRODUCED A LIGHTNING STRIKE. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS
/60-80 KNOTS AT MOST LEVELS/ HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A SMALL SLIGHT
RISK OVER THIS AREA IN THE EVENT THAT THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS CAN TRANSFER THAT MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. THE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

..HART.. 12/21/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER IL/IND WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THU MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILE
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SRN PLAINS
BY 22/12Z. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FORMER MIDLEVEL SYSTEM OVER NWRN OH WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP ENEWD
WITH NRN EXTENSION OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE
IN THE PERIOD. FARTHER SW...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
STALL ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NWRN GULF OF MEXICO RETREATING NWD
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM.

...UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS TODAY...

LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...FORCED BY DCVA IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HERE...FLOW FIELD WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG /I.E. 70-80 KT AT 500 MB AND 60-65 KT AT 700 MB/ WITH MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OH INTO CNTRL KY WHERE LOCALLY
STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
50S MAY YIELD SBCAPE VALUES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING AND HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW FIELD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ONE OR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES TODAY...

A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF DECELERATING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING AOB
500-1000 J/KG. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MASS CONFLUENCE WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY PROCESSES SUSTAINING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS LEAD
MIDLEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD/NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
AND GIVEN THAT 45-55 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...LOW WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES REMAIN WARRANTED.
HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED BY
REGIONAL VADS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS LLJ MIGRATES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...SERN TX/SRN LA EARLY THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO /PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NWD OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NRN MEXICO SYSTEM AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE TX COAST. 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINING LARGELY OFFSHORE THROUGH 22/12Z WITH DEVELOPING STORMS
LIKELY ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE A SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 22/12Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

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KCYS [211904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 211904
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1204 PM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 PM SNOW DOUGLAS 42.76N 105.39W
12/21/2011 E1.5 INCH CONVERSE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1202 PM SNOW LUSK 42.76N 104.45W
12/21/2011 E0.5 INCH NIOBRARA WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

BARELY STICKING.

&&

$$

REMANUEL

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KPIH [211855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 211855
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1155 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1134 AM SNOW 18 SE BURLEY 42.35N 113.54W
12/21/2011 E2.5 INCH CASSIA ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL THROUGH 10 AM - HOWELL CANYON - SNOTEL SITE
- ELEVATION 7982 FEET

1134 AM SNOW 1 W ISLAND PARK 44.42N 111.39W
12/21/2011 E3.2 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL THROUGH 10 AM - ISLAND PARK - SNOTEL SITE -
ELEVATION 6293 FEET

1134 AM SNOW 38 E IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 111.28W
12/21/2011 E4.0 INCH BONNEVILLE ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 10 AM - PINE CREEK PASS - SNOTEL
SITE - ELEVATION 6720 FEET

1134 AM SNOW 10 SSE LAVA HOT SPRINGS 42.49N 111.93W
12/21/2011 E3.6 INCH BANNOCK ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 10 AM - SEDGWICK PEAK - SNOTEL
SITE - ELEVATION 7897 FEET

1134 AM SNOW 14 N MONTPELIER 42.53N 111.30W
12/21/2011 E4.0 INCH BEAR LAKE ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 10 AM - SLUG CREEK DIVIDE -
SNOTEL SITE - ELEVATION 7225 FEET

1134 AM SNOW 2 NE WAYAN 43.00N 111.34W
12/21/2011 E4.0 INCH CARIBOU ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 10 AM - SOMSEN RANCH - SNOTEL
SITE - ELEVATION 6801 FEET

1134 AM SNOW 32 E BLACKFOOT 43.19N 111.71W
12/21/2011 E2.5 INCH BINGHAM ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL THROUGH 10 AM - SHEEP MOUNTAIN - SNOTEL
SITE - ELEVATION 6571 FEET

1134 AM SNOW 7 S POCATELLO 42.77N 112.47W
12/21/2011 E2.5 INCH BANNOCK ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL THROUGH 10 AM - WILDHORSE DIVIDE - SNOTEL
SITE - ELEVATION 6490 FEET

1134 AM SNOW 8 NW ISLAND PARK 44.51N 111.49W
12/21/2011 E4.2 INCH FREMONT ID MESONET

12 HOUR TOTAL THROUGH 10 AM - WHITE ELEPHANT - SNOTEL
SITE - ELEVATION 7713 FEET

&&

$$

CHATTINGS

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KPIH [211750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 211750
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1050 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1049 AM SNOW 1 E POCATELLO 42.88N 112.45W
12/21/2011 M1.5 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

1049 AM SNOW POCATELLO AIRPORT 42.92N 112.60W
12/21/2011 M2.2 INCH POWER ID OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

CHATTINGS

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KTFX [211659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 211659
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
959 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 AM HEAVY SNOW 11 S WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.51N 111.11W
12/21/2011 M8.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

BLACK BEAR SNOTEL MEASURES 12-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 8.0
INCHES.

&&

$$

MLV

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KTFX [211657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 211657
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
957 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM HEAVY SNOW 18 SE GALLATIN GATEWAY 45.40N 110.96W
12/21/2011 M8.0 INCH GALLATIN MT MESONET

SHOWER FALLS SNOTEL MEASURES 12-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 8.0
INCHES.

&&

$$

MLV

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KTFX [211654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 211654
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
953 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 15 SSW CAMERON 45.02N 111.85W
12/21/2011 M9.0 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

CLOVER MEADOW SNOTEL REPORTS 12-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 9.0
INCHES.

&&

$$

MLV

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211645
SWODY2
SPC AC 211644

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH TX TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED JUST OFF THE LA/MS COAST...AND
SHOULD RAPIDLY RETURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING THROUGH. BY 22/12Z...THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS AND
NORTHERN AL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ALSO RETURN
NORTHWARD INTO LA/MS/AL LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL BE OCCURRING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER
LA/MS. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN AL BY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL CAPE...BACKING AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.
SUPERCELLS APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY STORM-MODE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO TN/GA WITH
DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

..HART.. 12/21/2011

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KGGW [211644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 211644
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
944 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 16 NNE FRAZER 48.27N 105.91W
12/21/2011 M1.0 INCH VALLEY MT COCORAHS

0810 AM SNOW JORDAN 47.32N 106.91W
12/21/2011 E1.0 INCH GARFIELD MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0845 AM SNOW 10 NE WHITEWATER 48.86N 107.47W
12/21/2011 E2.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0847 AM SNOW 10 S DODSON 48.25N 108.24W
12/21/2011 E1.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0918 AM SNOW MALTA 48.36N 107.87W
12/21/2011 E0.5 INCH PHILLIPS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

JUST STARTED SNOWING AGAIN

0922 AM SNOW 17 W VIDA 47.83N 105.86W
12/21/2011 E0.5 INCH MCCONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 AM SNOW 11 E OPHEIM 48.86N 106.17W
12/21/2011 E0.5 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0927 AM SNOW 18 E BREDETTE 48.50N 104.91W
12/21/2011 E0.5 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BB

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KSTO [211634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 211634
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
832 AM PST WED DEC 21 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM DENSE FOG 1 NW OLIVEHURST 39.10N 121.56W
12/21/2011 YUBA CA ASOS

LESS THAN 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [211633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 211633
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
832 AM PST WED DEC 21 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0753 AM DENSE FOG 2 N CERES 37.63N 120.96W
12/21/2011 STANISLAUS CA ASOS

LESS THAN 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211628
SWODY1
SPC AC 211626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER IL/IND WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THU MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILE
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SRN PLAINS
BY 22/12Z. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FORMER MIDLEVEL SYSTEM OVER NWRN OH WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP ENEWD
WITH NRN EXTENSION OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE
IN THE PERIOD. FARTHER SW...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
STALL ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NWRN GULF OF MEXICO RETREATING NWD
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM.

...UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS TODAY...

LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...FORCED BY DCVA IN ADVANCE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HERE...FLOW FIELD WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG /I.E. 70-80 KT AT 500 MB AND 60-65 KT AT 700 MB/ WITH MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OH INTO CNTRL KY WHERE LOCALLY
STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
50S MAY YIELD SBCAPE VALUES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING AND HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW FIELD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ONE OR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES TODAY...

A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WILL BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF DECELERATING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING AOB
500-1000 J/KG. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MASS CONFLUENCE WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY PROCESSES SUSTAINING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS LEAD
MIDLEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD/NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
AND GIVEN THAT 45-55 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...LOW WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES REMAIN WARRANTED.
HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED BY
REGIONAL VADS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS LLJ MIGRATES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...SERN TX/SRN LA EARLY THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO /PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NWD OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NRN MEXICO SYSTEM AND RESULTANT
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE TX COAST. 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
REMAINING LARGELY OFFSHORE THROUGH 22/12Z WITH DEVELOPING STORMS
LIKELY ROOTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE A SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD 22/12Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/21/2011

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KSTO [211556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 211556
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
755 AM PST WED DEC 21 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM DENSE FOG 3 ENE SUISUN CITY 38.26N 121.95W
12/21/2011 SOLANO CA ASOS

LESS THAN 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [211556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 211556
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
754 AM PST WED DEC 21 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 AM DENSE FOG 2 E FRENCH CAMP 37.89N 121.24W
12/21/2011 SAN JOAQUIN CA ASOS

LESS THAN 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTAE [211555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 211555
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1055 AM EST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW DOTHAN 31.23N 85.42W
12/21/2011 M2.51 INCH HOUSTON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

$$

LAMERS

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KSTO [211555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 211555
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
754 AM PST WED DEC 21 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM DENSE FOG 1 W NORTH HIGHLANDS 38.67N 121.40W
12/21/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

LESS THAN 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSTO [211554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 211554
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
753 AM PST WED DEC 21 2011

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0727 AM DENSE FOG 5 NW ARCO ARENA 38.69N 121.59W
12/21/2011 SACRAMENTO CA ASOS

LESS THAN 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KBIS [211529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 211529
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 12 E AMIDON 46.48N 103.07W
12/21/2011 E1.0 INCH SLOPE ND TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING

&&

$$

RKROLAK

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KMSO [211520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 211520
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
820 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 AM SNOW 3 NNE BIGFORK 48.10N 114.05W
12/21/2011 M3.3 INCH FLATHEAD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GIBSON

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KMSO [211520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 211520
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
819 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 AM SNOW EVARO 47.03N 114.09W
12/21/2011 M3.5 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GIBSON

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KMSO [211519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 211519
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
819 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 AM SNOW 4 NE RONAN 47.57N 114.04W
12/21/2011 M5.2 INCH LAKE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GIBSON

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KMSO [211515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 211515
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
815 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM SNOW 2 NE MISSOULA 46.89N 113.96W
12/21/2011 M2.5 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

0745 AM SNOW 9 S SULA 45.71N 113.98W
12/21/2011 M2.0 INCH RAVALLI MT PUBLIC

LOST TRAIL SKI AREA

0745 AM SNOW 30 NW SAINT REGIS 47.61N 115.56W
12/21/2011 M4.0 INCH SANDERS MT PUBLIC

LOOKOUT PASS SKI AREA

0745 AM SNOW 5 W LAKESIDE 48.02N 114.33W
12/21/2011 M5.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC

BLACKTAIL SKI AREA

0745 AM SNOW DRUMMOND 46.67N 113.15W
12/21/2011 M2.0 INCH GRANITE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0745 AM SNOW 10 N MISSOULA 47.02N 113.99W
12/21/2011 M5.0 INCH MISSOULA MT PUBLIC

AVERAGE 5 INCHES MONTANA SNOWBOWL

0745 AM SNOW CONDON 47.53N 113.71W
12/21/2011 E4.0 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 AM SNOW LIBBY 48.39N 115.56W
12/21/2011 E2.0 INCH LINCOLN MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

0745 AM SNOW OVANDO 47.02N 113.13W
12/21/2011 M3.0 INCH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 AM SNOW 12 NE POLSON 47.82N 113.98W
12/21/2011 M4.5 INCH LAKE MT PUBLIC

0745 AM SNOW CONDON 47.53N 113.71W
12/21/2011 M4.0 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 AM SNOW SEELEY LAKE 47.18N 113.48W
12/21/2011 M2.0 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 AM SNOW 2 SE SEELEY LAKE 47.16N 113.45W
12/21/2011 E4.0 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING

0745 AM SNOW BONNER 46.87N 113.86W
12/21/2011 M3.0 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GIBSON

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KBIS [211510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 211510
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
910 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 AM SNOW 15 SW RHAME 46.08N 103.88W
12/21/2011 E1.5 INCH BOWMAN ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RKROLAK

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KPIH [211503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 211503
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
803 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM SNOW S ASHTON 44.07N 111.45W
12/21/2011 M3.2 INCH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CHATTINGS

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KPIH [211421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 211421
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
721 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM SNOW 2 SW VICTOR 43.58N 111.14W
12/21/2011 M2.5 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CHATTINGS

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KTFX [211414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 211414
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
714 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 AM SNOW 5 SW BOZEMAN 45.63N 111.12W
12/21/2011 E2.0 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL.

&&

$$

MPJ

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KGGW [211327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 211327
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
627 AM MST WED DEC 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM SNOW GLASGOW 48.20N 106.64W
12/21/2011 M1.8 INCH VALLEY MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0600 AM SNOW 5 SW HINSDALE 48.34N 107.15W
12/21/2011 M3.2 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM SNOW CIRCLE 47.42N 105.60W
12/21/2011 E1.0 INCH MCCONE MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

0600 AM SNOW GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
12/21/2011 E0.5 INCH DAWSON MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

GREGF

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211310
SWODY1
SPC AC 211308

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SE TX AND
SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...WITH MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE RCKYS/HI PLNS AND BROAD RIDGE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. IN THE
CONFLUENT WSW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH...UPR LOW NOW OVER IL SHOULD
FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ENE TO THE LWR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME
TIME...NW MEXICO UPR LOW ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES ENE
INTO TX AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE DROPPING S INTO THE GRT BASIN.
TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SVR...MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BOTH THE UPR SYSTEM CROSSING THE OH VLY...AND WITH THE
DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM MEXICO.

...FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL AND WRN/SRN GA TODAY...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE AL/SW GA
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.
INCREASINGLY LOW LCLS AND LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY YIELD A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO ALONG THE FL CST. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALSO MAY
OCCUR NEWD INTO PARTS OF AL AND GA. BUT GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF MEAN FLOW SHOULD OFFSET SLIGHT DIURNAL
INCREASE IN LOW LVL BUOYANCY TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD OR SUSTAINED
SVR THREAT.

...SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TODAY...
AS IL UPR LOW CONTINUES ENEWD TODAY...A BAND OF 70-80 KT WSWLY 500
MB FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS TO THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A NARROW MOIST AXIS
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F WILL SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE WRN
SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE IL TROUGH...AND LOW LVL UPLIFT
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN EXISTING BAND
OF SCTD FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN OH TO
CNTRL AL AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD. A NEW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION/STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT
IN ERN OH/WRN PA.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SFC
HEATING REMAIN WEAK. BUT PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELD WITH
EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR
ISOLD DMGG WIND. THIS THREAT MAY BE GREATEST BENEATH CORE OF
STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW...I.E. OVER ERN KY...SRN/ERN OH...WV...WRN
MD...AND PERHAPS WRN PA THROUGH THE AFTN. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE AS UPR SYSTEM FURTHER DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES BEYOND
LOW LVL MOIST AXIS.

...SE TX/SW LA EARLY THU...
APPROACH OF NW MEXICAN UPR TROUGH WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN LOW TO
MID LVL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER E TX...THE LWR MS VLY...AND THE NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. AS A RESULT...SWRN
PART OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SUBSEQUENTLY REFORM
NWWD TO NEAR THE UPR GULF CST OF TX AND SW/S CNTRL LA BY 12Z THU.

INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW ATOP FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/WAA AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TNGT AND ...ESPECIALLY...EARLY
THU...FROM S CNTRL THROUGH E TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
E INTO PARTS OF LA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK EXCEPT NEAR SFC FRONT NEAR THE UPR TX GULF
CST AND IN LA...WHERE SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 60+
KT SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LVL WINDS...SETUP
MAY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE SSW-NNE SQLN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF
CONVECTION/STORMS. THE SQLN COULD CONTAIN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS
WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/STRONG WINDS FROM NEAR
HOUSTON ENE INTO S CNTRL LA. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST AFTER
09Z THU AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY /SEE

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/21/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 211305
SWODY1
SPC AC 211304

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SE TX AND
SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...WITH MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE RCKYS/HI PLNS AND BROAD RIDGE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. IN THE
CONFLUENT WSW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH...UPR LOW NOW OVER IL SHOULD
FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ENE TO THE LWR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME
TIME...NW MEXICO UPR LOW ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES ENE
INTO TX AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE DROPPING S INTO THE GRT BASIN.
TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SVR...MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BOTH THE UPR SYSTEM CROSSING THE OH VLY...AND WITH THE
DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM MEXICO.

...FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL AND WRN/SRN GA TODAY...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE AL/SW GA
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.
INCREASINGLY LOW LCLS AND LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY YIELD A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO ALONG THE FL CST. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALSO MAY
OCCUR NEWD INTO PARTS OF AL AND GA. BUT GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF MEAN FLOW SHOULD OFFSET SLIGHT DIURNAL
INCREASE IN LOW LVL BUOYANCY TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD OR SUSTAINED
SVR THREAT.

...SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TODAY...
AS IL UPR LOW CONTINUES ENEWD TODAY...A BAND OF 70-80 KT WSWLY 500
MB FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS TO THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A NARROW MOIST AXIS
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F WILL SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE WRN
SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE IL TROUGH...AND LOW LVL UPLIFT
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN EXISTING BAND
OF SCTD FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN OH TO
CNTRL AL AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD. A NEW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION/STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT
IN ERN OH/WRN PA.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SFC
HEATING REMAIN WEAK. BUT PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELD WITH
EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR
ISOLD DMGG WIND. THIS THREAT MAY BE GREATEST BENEATH CORE OF
STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW...I.E. OVER ERN KY...SRN/ERN OH...WV...WRN
MD...AND PERHAPS WRN PA THROUGH THE AFTN. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE AS UPR SYSTEM FURTHER DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES BEYOND
LOW LVL MOIST AXIS.

...SE TX/SW LA EARLY THU...
APPROACH OF NW MEXICAN UPR TROUGH WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN LOW TO
MID LVL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER E TX...THE LWR MS VLY...AND THE NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. AS A RESULT...SWRN
PART OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SUBSEQUENTLY REFORM
NWWD TO NEAR THE UPR GULF CST OF TX AND SW/S CNTRL LA BY 12Z THU.

INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW ATOP FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/WAA AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TNGT AND ...ESPECIALLY...EARLY
THU...FROM S CNTRL THROUGH E TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
E INTO PARTS OF LA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK EXCEPT NEAR SFC FRONT NEAR THE UPR TX GULF
CST AND IN LA...WHERE SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 60+
KT SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LVL WINDS...SETUP
MAY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE SSW-NNE SQLN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF
CONVECTION/STORMS. THE SQLN COULD CONTAIN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS
WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/STRONG WINDS FROM NEAR HOUSTON ENE
INTO S CNTRL LA. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST AFTER 09Z THU AND

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/21/2011

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To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211301
SWODY1
SPC AC 211259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SE TX AND
SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...WITH MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE RCKYS/HI PLNS AND BROAD RIDGE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. IN THE
CONFLUENT WSW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH...UPR LOW NOW OVER IL SHOULD
FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ENE TO THE LWR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME
TIME...NW MEXICO UPR LOW ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES ENE
INTO TX AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE DROPPING S INTO THE GRT BASIN.
TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SVR...MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BOTH THE UPR SYSTEM CROSSING THE OH VLY...AND WITH THE
DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM MEXICO.

...FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL AND WRN/SRN GA TODAY...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE AL/SW GA
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.
INCREASINGLY LOW LCLS AND LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY YIELD A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO ALONG THE FL CST. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALSO MAY
OCCUR NEWD INTO PARTS OF AL AND GA. BUT GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF MEAN FLOW SHOULD OFFSET SLIGHT DIURNAL
INCREASE IN LOW LVL BUOYANCY TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD OR SUSTAINED
SVR THREAT.

...SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TODAY...
AS IL UPR LOW CONTINUES ENEWD TODAY...A BAND OF 70-80 KT WSWLY 500
MB FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS TO THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A NARROW MOIST AXIS
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F WILL SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE WRN
SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE IL TROUGH...AND LOW LVL UPLIFT
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN EXISTING BAND
OF SCTD FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN OH TO
CNTRL AL AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD. A NEW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION/STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT
IN ERN OH/WRN PA.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SFC
HEATING REMAIN WEAK. BUT PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELD WITH
EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR
ISOLD DMGG WIND. THIS THREAT MAY BE GREATEST BENEATH CORE OF
STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW...I.E. OVER ERN KY...SRN/ERN OH...WV...WRN
MD...AND PERHAPS WRN PA THROUGH THE AFTN. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE AS UPR SYSTEM FURTHER DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES BEYOND
LOW LVL MOIST AXIS.

...SE TX/SW LA EARLY THU...
APPROACH OF NW MEXICAN UPR TROUGH WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN LOW TO
MID LVL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER E TX...THE LWR MS VLY...AND THE NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. AS A RESULT...SWRN
PART OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SUBSEQUENTLY REFORM
NWWD TO NEAR THE UPR GULF CST OF TX AND SW/S CNTRL LA BY 12Z THU.

INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW ATOP FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/WAA AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TNGT AND ...ESPECIALLY...EARLY
THU...FROM S CNTRL THROUGH E TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
E INTO PARTS OF LA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK EXCEPT NEAR SFC FRONT NEAR THE UPR TX GULF
CST AND IN LA...WHERE SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 60+
KT SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LVL WINDS...SETUP
MAY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE SSW-NNE SQLN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF
CONVECTION/STORMS. THE SQLN COULD CONTAIN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS
WITH A THREAT ISOLD TORNADOES/STRONG WINDS FROM NEAR HOUSTON ENE
INTO S CNTRL LA. THIS THREAT
SHOULD BE GREATEST AFTER 09Z THU AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/21/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211258
SWODY1
SPC AC 211256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SE TX AND
SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...WITH MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE RCKYS/HI PLNS AND BROAD RIDGE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. IN THE
CONFLUENT WSW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH...UPR LOW NOW OVER IL SHOULD
FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ENE TO THE LWR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME
TIME...NW MEXICO UPR LOW ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES ENE
INTO TX AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE DROPPING S INTO THE GRT BASIN.
TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SVR...MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
WITH BOTH THE UPR SYSTEM CROSSING THE OH VLY...AND WITH THE
DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM MEXICO.

...FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL AND WRN/SRN GA TODAY...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE AL/SW GA
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.
INCREASINGLY LOW LCLS AND LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY YIELD A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO ALONG THE FL CST. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALSO MAY
OCCUR NEWD INTO PARTS OF AL AND PERHAPS SW GA. BUT GRADUALLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF MEAN FLOW SHOULD OFFSET SLIGHT
DIURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LVL BUOYANCY TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD OR
SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

...SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TODAY...
AS IL UPR LOW CONTINUES ENEWD TODAY...A BAND OF 70-80 KT WSWLY 500
MB WILL SPREAD FROM THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS TO THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A NARROW MOIST AXIS
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F WILL SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE WRN
SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE IL TROUGH...AND LOW LVL UPLIFT
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN EXISTING BAND
OF SCTD FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN OH TO
CNTRL AL AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD. A NEW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION/STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT
IN ERN OH/WRN PA.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SFC
HEATING REMAIN WEAK. BUT PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELD WITH
EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR
ISOLD DMGG WIND. THIS THREAT MAY BE GREATEST BENEATH CORE OF
STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW...I.E. OVER ERN KY...SRN/ERN OH...WV...WRN
MD...AND PERHAPS WRN PA THROUGH THE AFTN. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EVE AS UPR SYSTEM FURTHER DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES BEYOND
LOW LVL MOIST AXIS.

...SE TX/SW LA EARLY THU...
APPROACH OF NW MEXICAN UPR TROUGH WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN LOW TO
MID LVL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER E TX...THE LWR MS VLY...AND THE NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. AS A RESULT...SWRN
PART OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SUBSEQUENTLY REFORM
NWWD TO NEAR THE UPR GULF CST OF TX AND SW/S CNTRL LA BY 12Z THU.

INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW ATOP FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/WAA AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TNGT AND ...ESPECIALLY...EARLY
THU...FROM S CNTRL THROUGH E TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
E INTO PARTS OF LA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK EXCEPT NEAR SFC FRONT NEAR THE UPR TX GULF
CST AND IN SRN LA...WHERE SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH
60+ KT SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LVL
WINDS...SETUP MAY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE SSW-NNE SQLN ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE AREA OF CONVECTION/STORMS. THE SQLN COULD CONTAIN EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLD
TORNADOES/STRONG WINDS FROM NEAR HOUSTON ENE INTO S CNTRL LA. THIS
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST AFTER 09Z THU AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/21/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.