KFFC [270305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 270305
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1105 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM FLOOD WARNER ROBINS 32.62N 83.63W
09/26/2010 HOUSTON GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTS THAT SEVERAL ROADS WERE FLOODED
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROADS. A COUPLE OF
RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOWING. PROBLEMS MAINLY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY FROM WARNER ROBINS TO PERRY.

1050 PM FLOOD WARNER ROBINS 32.62N 83.63W
09/26/2010 HOUSTON GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTS FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE. AT
LEAST TWO ROADS CLOSED BECAUSE OF FLOODING. TWO HOMES IN
WARNER ROBINS HAVE BEEN EVAUCATED...WITH WATER UP TO A
FOOT DEEP IN ONE OF THESE HOMES. ONE RENTENTION POND
STILL OVER FLOWING. PROBLEMS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE COUNTY FROM WARNER ROBINS TO PERRY. MOST OF THE
PROBLEMS A RESULT OF OVERFLOWING DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.

&&

$$

19

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270057
SWODY1
SPC AC 270055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN FL PANHANDLE
THROUGH SRN/ERN GA...THE ERN CAROLINAS TO FAR SERN VA...

...ERN FL PANHANDLE/SRN-ERN GA/CENTRAL-ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM ERN NC SWWD THROUGH SC TO AN INFLECTION POINT/LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL GA. A COLD FRONT TRAILED SWWD
FROM THE GA LOW THROUGH SERN AL TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
IN THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE GA SURFACE LOW IS APPARENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM GA/SC
BORDER REGION THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TOWARD SRN VA BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
LOW WILL TRACK NEWD INTO GA OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN SOME. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /60-90 METER PER 12 HOURS
AT H5/ SPREADING INTO MS/AL AS A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
STRENGTHENS/DEEPENS...TRACKING SSEWD THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

A MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES ALONG AND E OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES/
INSTABILITY WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING/DEEP
SSWLY WINDS/SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN
ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN EXIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE RESULTED IN
A NWD AND SWD EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ONGOING
STORMS ALONG THE GA/SC BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
ERN CAROLINAS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE TRACKS
TOWARD VA. STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SWRN GA/SERN AL TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL PROGRESS EWD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 09/27/2010

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KCHS [262354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 262354
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
754 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HAIL 5 NNW CROCKETVILLE 32.99N 81.12W
09/26/2010 E1.75 INCH HAMPTON SC PUBLIC

HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS BRIEFLY FELL AND COVERED THE
GROUND.

&&

$$

JAQ

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KMFL [262347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 262347
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 11 SE BRIGHTON SEMINOLE 26.96N 80.94W
09/26/2010 M40 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

LAKE TOWER L005 RECORDED A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 35
KNOTS.

&&

$$

BRABANDER

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KRAH [262132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 262132
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
531 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE FALCON 35.12N 78.62W
09/26/2010 SAMPSON NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF HAYES MILL RD AND
AUTRY MILL RD.

&&

$$

KMC

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KRAH [262027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 262027
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
426 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0251 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW ROSEBORO 34.98N 78.55W
09/26/2010 SAMPSON NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN AT PLEASANT UNION RD AND OLD BRICK MILL RD.
SEVERAL OTHER TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN THROUGHOUT
ROSEBORO.

&&

$$

KMC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261957
SWODY1
SPC AC 261956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND
SC...

A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE OUTLOOK FOR PARTS OF SC AND ERN
GA FOR THE 20Z ISSUANCE. A STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY ONGOING
IN CNTRL GA AND A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS IN ERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS SSEWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN GA...SC AND NC RESULTING IN A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD
EXIST IN ERN GA AND SC WHERE A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO BECOME FOCUSED AFTER 06Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP NEAR
THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ROTATE AND HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..BROYLES.. 09/26/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010/

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...GA...SC BY LATE
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z NMM IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. IF THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS MATERIALIZE...A SUPERCELL
THREAT WOULD DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER THIS SITUATION
WILL DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...WILL CONTINUE LOW SEVERE PROBS AND
WATCH TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADE LATER TODAY.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261722
SWODY2
SPC AC 261721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...ERN GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD AS A 60 TO 75 KT JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN
THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY
MORNING...A WELL-DEVELOPED 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
LOCATED FROM ERN GA NNEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHERE MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS GRADUALLY DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SE GA NEWD ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY AND MARKEDLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING.

ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE 21 TO 00Z TIMEFRAME FROM AUGUSTA GA
NEWD TO RALEIGH NC SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC-6 KM SHEAR
IS FORECAST IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHERE STORMS REMAIN
DISCRETE AND INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DOMINANT.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODELS APPEAR TO ORGANIZE A LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE LINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE THE
FAVORED THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 09/26/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261626
SWODY1
SPC AC 261625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH AN INCREASING
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...GA...SC BY LATE
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z NMM IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. IF THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS MATERIALIZE...A SUPERCELL
THREAT WOULD DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER THIS SITUATION
WILL DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON...WILL CONTINUE LOW SEVERE PROBS AND
WATCH TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADE LATER TODAY.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/26/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261242
SWODY1
SPC AC 261240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NE GULF/SE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SSEWD TOWARD THE NRN MS AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TONIGHT ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM THE NE GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL/NRN GA. A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS
ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF AND SE ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAINS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. A 30-40 KT LLJ IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE NE GULF COAST TO THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND
THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MORE
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS TONIGHT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE
NEWD INTO GA.

RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP THE DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS QUITE LIMITED DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST AS SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SPREAD
INLAND...AS WELL AS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. DESPITE BEING OUT OF PHASE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT
AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. A REMAINING CONCERN TONIGHT WILL STILL BE
WEAK BUOYANCY AS A RESULT OF POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE /THE 06Z NAM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE...WHILE THE OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT
WEAKER LLJ/...AND THE TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR TO LAG W OF THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...IT APPEARS
APPROPRIATE TO MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES
FROM N FL NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...PRIMARILY FOR TONIGHT.
STILL...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES FOR A PORTION OF
THIS AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ASSUMING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
NAM FORECAST VERIFIES.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 09/26/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260756
SWOD48
SPC AC 260755

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE ERN
STATES ON WED/D4 AHEAD OF A MORE POWERFUL TROUGH DIVING ESEWD ACROSS
S CNTRL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THU/D5. FOR
D4...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MAY MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS.

AFTER D4...MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE NERN STATES...BUT REGARDLESS OF
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
ENCOMPASSES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

..JEWELL.. 09/26/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260717
SWODY3
SPC AC 260716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF A LARGE ERN
U.S. TROUGH WITH LOW CENTERED NEAR OH AT 12Z TUE. A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET MAX ON THE ORDER OF 75 KTS WILL EJECT NNEWD ACROSS PA/NY DURING
THE DAY...WITH BROAD SSWLY FLOW EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE ERN
CAROLINAS INTO ERN PA/NJ EARLY TUE MORNING...MOVING SLOWLY E TOWARD
THE COAST BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM COASTAL SC NWD TO A WARM FRONT FROM ERN PA INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. A 30-40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WILL
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50-60 KT. GIVEN THESE SHEAR PROFILES...AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.

..JEWELL.. 09/26/2010

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KMPX [260533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 260533
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1137 PM HEAVY RAIN ST JAMES 43.98N 94.63W
09/24/2010 M11.75 INCH WATONWAN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PCPN.

&&

$$

KME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260529
SWODY1
SPC AC 260528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW FAIRLY SIMILAR...
INDICATING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD...DEEPEN...AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY 12Z MONDAY...THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF STATES...WITH ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHWARD
NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND ITS SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN STATES. AFTER TEMPORARILY FLATTENING...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS IMPULSE LIFTING TOWARD THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES AND
ADJACENT INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA.

...SOUTHEAST...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION TODAY WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. STRONGER MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS APPEAR
LIKELY TO GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER.
AND...COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DO SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS MAY COMMENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...FROM NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF
THE CAROLINAS...PERHAPS UP TO 40+ KT BY LATE THIS
EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE THIS
MAY GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH FURTHER STABILIZING TRENDS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IS
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR/HURLBUT.. 09/26/2010

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